Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. tariff policy on global economic stability and the need for coordinated monetary policies among countries to mitigate risks and foster a favorable financial environment for global economic growth [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. government's significant increase in tariffs has caused major disruptions to the global economic order, affecting investment and consumption decisions worldwide, and increasing financial market volatility [2][3]. - The uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs has led to pressure on traditionally safe assets, prompting central banks to focus on medium-term goals to ensure financial market stability [3][5]. - The tariff policy undermines the global multilateral trade system, leading to widespread uncertainty and potentially restructuring global trade patterns, which could adversely affect macroeconomic conditions in various countries [3][4]. Group 2: Need for Monetary Policy Coordination - Strengthening coordination of monetary policies among countries is essential to effectively respond to tariff shocks and maintain financial stability [4][5]. - The current state of global monetary policy coordination is lacking, with no single institution responsible for overseeing it, and a need for more research and consensus-building [6]. - Major central banks should utilize tools like currency swap agreements to provide sufficient liquidity in times of uncertainty and crisis [5][6]. Group 3: Future of the International Monetary System - The weakening of the dollar's credibility due to rising U.S. fiscal deficits and trade protectionism suggests a shift towards a more diversified international monetary system [7][8]. - The internationalization of currencies like the renminbi and euro is seen as a step towards reducing reliance on the dollar and promoting a competitive environment among major currencies [7][8]. - The potential establishment of a platform by the IMF for issuing a supranational currency based on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is proposed as a way to enhance the stability of the global monetary system [7][8].

当市场波动时，资金上的浮亏会激发我们脑部的扁桃核——大脑中处理恐惧和忧虑的部位，最显著的反应就是，"要么战斗，要么逃 跑"。诺贝尔经济学奖得主丹尼尔·卡尼曼和阿莫斯·特沃斯基的研究表明，资金亏损所带来的痛苦程度，是等额盈利所带来快感程度的两 倍。 但我们也都知道，要做一个理性的投资者，不要轻易受到短期市场波动的影响，那么怎么做呢？以下6条原则，也许可以帮助我们在市场 波动时不会过于受到情绪冲动的影响。 1.要理解市场波动是权益类投资的一部分 尽管市场过往表现不代表未来走势，但历史告诉我们，股市下跌是权益类投资中不可避免的一部分。但是另一个角度来看，市场不会一 直上涨，也不会一直下跌。以美国标普500指数为例，从1977年至2016年的数据显示，这四十年中每年大约都会发生一次幅度为10%的市 场调整，但是该指数在75%的时间内依然获得了正回报，并且每一个深度回调后都是复苏以及潜在的市场新高。 标普500指数在过去40年间的年度表现 数据来源：资本集团、Rimes 正如图中数据所呈现的那样，黄色数据点表明单年出现的最大跌幅，可以看到每年都会出现较大的下跌，但这并不代表当年就一定是亏 损，更不代表长期市场表现。而如 ...

Core Viewpoint - Transsion Holdings (688036.SH) has reportedly established a mobility division to explore the two-wheeled electric vehicle market, although the company has not confirmed this information officially [2][12]. Group 1: Business Development - The company is actively recruiting for various positions related to its mobility business, indicating that its expansion into this new sector may have already begun [2][3]. - Job postings include roles for the independent brand "REVOO," which is focused on digital marketing and global media planning, suggesting a strategic approach to brand development in the electric vehicle space [3][6]. - The recruitment efforts encompass both consumer-facing (To C) marketing roles and enterprise-focused (To B) product development positions, targeting markets in Latin America and Africa [3][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Transsion's mobile phone business is facing growth challenges, with a reported revenue of 68.758 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.31% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.549 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.22%, while the net profit after excluding non-recurring items decreased by 11.54% to 4.541 billion yuan [12]. - The gross margin for the mobile phone business fell to 20.62%, down 2.63 percentage points from the previous year, with the gross margin in its core African market declining from 30.05% to 28.59% [12]. Group 3: Market Context - The two-wheeler market in Africa presents potential due to a large population and low vehicle ownership, with motorcycles being a common mode of transport [13]. - Challenges include weak electrical infrastructure, lack of charging facilities, limited purchasing power among local consumers, and the complexities of establishing production and supply chains [13]. - The company has previously shown interest in the broader mobility market, including four-wheeled electric vehicles, indicating a cautious and low-profile exploration of new opportunities [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by Xibei, a restaurant chain founded by Jia Guolong, as it navigates a significant downturn in 2024 after a strong performance in 2023 [3][6] - Jia Guolong's decision to return as CEO in 2024 is a response to the company's struggles, marking a pivotal year in his nearly 40-year entrepreneurial journey [4][5] Company Performance - In 2023, Xibei achieved record revenue exceeding 6.2 billion yuan, with Xibei Youmian Village generating 2 billion yuan in net sales and serving 37.66 million customers [6][8] - However, in 2024, the company faced a drastic decline in customer traffic and overall performance, leading to what Jia described as the "most difficult year" since its establishment [3][6] Market Environment - The domestic restaurant industry in 2024 is characterized by complex challenges, including increasingly diverse consumer demands and intensified competition from emerging brands [8][30] - Xibei's struggles are compounded by its past strategic decisions, including a focus on multiple sub-brands that have not yielded expected returns [9][29] Strategic Decisions - After stepping down as CEO in 2015, Jia Guolong attempted to explore new growth avenues through various sub-brands, but most of these initiatives failed, leading to significant financial losses [9][11] - In response to the current challenges, Jia has refocused on Xibei's core business, eliminating underperforming sub-brands and emphasizing the main brand strategy [26][28] Brand Evolution - Xibei has undergone significant brand evolution, including a name and logo change to simplify its identity and enhance brand recognition [27] - The company has implemented a new incentive structure for employees, shifting from quarterly to daily rewards to boost morale and performance [28] Historical Context - Xibei's journey began in 1988, with Jia Guolong's unconventional approach leading to its rise as a prominent brand in the Chinese restaurant industry [14][16] - The company's early success was driven by strict standardization in service and food quality, which has been a key factor in its growth [18][19] Challenges and Future Outlook - The article highlights the risks associated with Xibei's over-reliance on Jia Guolong's personal vision, which may not align with evolving market demands [29][31] - The shift towards an IPO strategy reflects a significant change in the company's approach to capital and growth, with plans to complete the IPO by 2026 [32]

宏观 锚定高质量发展，深化金融改革开放 ——2025 陆家嘴论坛开幕式主题演讲点评 2025 年 6 月 19 日 宏观研究/事件点评 投资要点： 事件：2025 陆家嘴论坛 6 月 18 日召开，会议主题为"全球经济变局中 的金融开放合作与高质量发展"。开幕式上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金 融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新出席 会议并发表主题演讲。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜的演讲题目是《关于全球金融治理的若干思 考》，强调央行将积极参与完善全球金融治理、不断做好评估和完善货币政 策。今年以来，在美国长期债务问题以及"美国例外论"动摇的情况下，美 元持续走弱，以美元主导的国际货币体系面临前所未有的挑战。报告聚焦国 际货币体系、跨境支付体系、全球金融稳定体系、国际金融组织治理四个问 题，探讨了我国在完善全球金融治理中所坚持的方向。 报告指出，国际主导货币具有全球公共品的属性，由一国主权货币来承 担，与生俱来就存在一些内在的不稳定问题，主要源于主权货币国会更多考 虑自身利益，以及主权货币国的财政和金融监管问题、内部经济结构性矛盾 的不断累积，会以金融风险的形式向全球溢出。未来，国际货币 ...

Core Insights - Haidilao has recently gained attention in the working community by launching a self-service lunch option, offering meals priced around 20 yuan, which includes various dishes and beverages, appealing to office workers [1][4][8] - The company is expanding its business model beyond traditional hotpot offerings, creating a new consumption map that includes various meal options for different times and settings [1][3][10] Business Strategy - The introduction of the self-service lunch is a strategic move to activate underutilized resources during off-peak hours, as lunch remains a low-traffic period for the company [3][11] - Haidilao's diversification efforts include launching new brands and meal options, such as boxed meals and children's menus, to cater to a broader audience and different dining scenarios [8][10][22] Market Context - The overall restaurant industry in China is experiencing slower growth, with Haidilao's revenue growth declining to single digits in 2024, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [11][12][13] - The hotpot industry is facing intense competition, with many brands engaging in price wars, leading to a decrease in profit margins and an increase in store closures [16][17][18] Financial Performance - Haidilao reported a revenue of 427.55 billion yuan in 2024, with a modest growth of 3.1%, and a net profit of 47 billion yuan, reflecting a slowdown compared to previous years [11][12] - The company's average table turnover rate has improved to 4.1 times per day, but the average customer spending has decreased below 100 yuan, highlighting the impact of price sensitivity among consumers [14][15] Consumer Perception - The introduction of affordable meal options has altered consumer perceptions of Haidilao, with some viewing it as a value-driven choice while others question the brand's premium positioning [7][8] - The success of the self-service lunch and other new offerings will be crucial in determining Haidilao's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions [21][22]

摩根资管指，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员已更新其预测，下调了增长预期，上调了通胀预期，以 反映特朗普政府提高关税和其他政策的影响。值得注意的是，过去6个月美国通胀预期的上升幅度大于 失业率的上升幅度，这表明FOMC成员可能预期通胀将首先做出反应，随后失业率才会改变。 摩根资管提到，中位数预测仍预计今年将两次减息，每次25个基点。然而，FOMC内部的观点愈发两极 化，19名委员中有7人预测今年利率保持不变，而3月份只有4人。2026年和2027年的减息次数也已从两 次降至各一次。这可能受到美国总统特朗普向鲍威尔施压减息的影响。FOMC必须展现独立性，确保经 济增长显著放缓后才能实施减息，如果总统压力加剧，这可能会导致减息阻力加大。 摩根资管称，美联储发布的声明富有建设性，强调经济扩张的稳健步伐和健康的劳动力市场。声明还强 调围绕经济前景的不确定性正在减少，这可能是对美国与其贸易伙伴之间正在进行的贸易谈判的回应。 美联储主席鲍威尔指出，当前中东紧张局势并未显著影响美联储的决策过程，因为能源冲击通常只会产 生暂时性的影响。 摩根资产管理亚太区首席市场策略师许长泰表示，美联储开会议息后，维持其政策利率4.25% ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to further advance the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, emphasizing the need for a diversified and efficient global financial safety net and the consistency and authority of global financial regulatory rules [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Measures - Establishment of an interbank market trading report database to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [2]. - Creation of a digital RMB international operation center to promote the internationalization of digital RMB and support financial market innovation [2]. - Establishment of personal credit institutions to provide diversified credit products and enhance the social credit system [3]. - Launch of offshore trade finance service reform pilot in the Lingang New Area to support the development of offshore trade [4]. - Development of offshore bonds in the free trade zone to broaden financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [4]. - Optimization of free trade account functions to enhance the efficiency of cross-border trade and investment [4]. - Implementation of innovative structural monetary policy tools in Shanghai, including blockchain credit refinancing and carbon reduction support tools [4]. - Collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading to improve the foreign exchange market product series [4]. Group 2: Global Financial Governance - Discussion on the need to reduce reliance on a single sovereign currency and promote a competitive environment among a few strong sovereign currencies to enhance the resilience of the international monetary system [5]. - The potential for Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to serve as a super-sovereign international currency, though facing challenges in political consensus and market depth [5]. - Emphasis on the importance of a diversified global cross-border payment system and the role of emerging technologies in reshaping traditional payment systems [6][7]. - Recognition of the challenges facing the global financial stability framework, including fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient regulation of non-bank intermediaries [7]. - The need for a strong IMF to build a diversified and efficient global financial safety net and to adjust the quota shares to reflect member countries' positions in the global economy [7].

摩根士丹利亚洲CEO在陆家嘴论坛上表示，全球资本多元化配置趋势下上海和中国香港能吸引资本。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that under the trend of global capital diversification, both Shanghai and Hong Kong are positioned to attract significant capital inflows [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the increasing interest of global investors in diversifying their capital allocation, particularly towards Asian markets [1] - It mentions that the strategic importance of Shanghai and Hong Kong is growing as financial hubs in the context of this diversification trend [1] - The article suggests that the regulatory environment and market opportunities in these cities are favorable for attracting foreign investments [1]