黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨，期货盘面成交量放大，现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱，部分地区钢厂挺价，昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材即将进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内 制造业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成 果，宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪趋稳，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current market as a whole shows signs of breaking through the previous range and starting to move upwards. For futures trading, a long - biased strategy is recommended for stock index futures, and buying options is suggested for stock index options. In the long - term, A - shares are considered to have high investment value, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having more growth potential due to science and innovation policies, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3906.40, 3893.20, 3885.80, and 3855.60 respectively, with price increases of 10.80, 8.80, 7.60, and 6.60 and increases of 0.28%, 0.23%, 0.20%, and 0.17%. The trading volumes were 30836.00, 2035.00, 40077.00, and 6044.00, and the open interests were 65471.00, 3682.00, 135428.00, and 40026.00, with decreases of 4640.00, 344.00, 3939.00, and 618.00 respectively [1] - **IH Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2693.00, 2689.00, 2689.00, and 2690.00 respectively, with price increases of 8.80, 7.60, 7.20, and 7.00 and increases of 0.33%, 0.28%, 0.27%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 14261.00, 855.00, 22994.00, and 2568.00, and the open interests were 26401.00, 1756.00, 49133.00, and 8551.00, with decreases of 4124.00, 235.00, 3937.00, and 298.00 respectively [1] - **IC Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 5863.00, 5818.80, 5768.80, and 5650.00 respectively, with price increases of 33.20, 25.80, 20.40, and 15.00 and increases of 0.57%, 0.45%, 0.35%, and 0.27%. The trading volumes were 32984.00, 3036.00, 27514.00, and 7769.00, and the open interests were 73467.00, 4820.00, 91475.00, and 51599.00, with changes of - 4070.00, 17.00, - 3076.00, and - 649.00 respectively [1] - **IM Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6283.00, 6220.60, 6148.60, and 5973.20 respectively, with price increases of 48.40, 42.40, 29.80, and 20.60 and increases of 0.78%, 0.69%, 0.49%, and 0.35%. The trading volumes were 53137.00, 4220.00, 94541.00, and 20114.00, and the open interests were 82875.00, 7270.00, 158728.00, and 68772.00, with changes of - 9504.00, 449.00, - 9029.00, and - 1081.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 13.20, - 4.00, - 44.20, and - 62.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 9.60, - 4.40, - 37.20, and - 56.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the index was 3936.08, with a trading volume of 145.17 billion lots and a total trading value of 2888.21 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 3921.76, with a trading volume of 194.56 billion lots and a total trading value of 3434.68 billion yuan. The increase was 0.37% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the index was 2711.99, with a trading volume of 38.31 billion lots and a total trading value of 764.64 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 2707.57, with a trading volume of 57.08 billion lots and a total trading value of 957.14 billion yuan. The increase was 0.16% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the index was 5915.39, with a trading volume of 166.28 billion lots and a total trading value of 2265.17 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 5863.73, with a trading volume of 199.39 billion lots and a total trading value of 2433.03 billion yuan. The increase was 0.88% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the index was 6356.18, with a trading volume of 237.32 billion lots and a total trading value of 3362.21 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 6276.94, with a trading volume of 248.56 billion lots and a total trading value of 3304.55 billion yuan. The increase was 1.26% [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: Different industries had different performance. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had increases of 0.11%, 0.02%, 0.99%, and - 0.01% respectively; the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had increases of 0.29%, 0.87%, - 0.44%, and 1.06% respectively; the telecommunications and public utilities sectors had increases of 1.95% and 0.01% respectively [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index were - 29.68, - 42.88, - 50.28, and - 80.48 respectively, compared to values of - 29.76, - 39.36, - 45.16, and - 75.36 two days ago [1] - **IH Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the SSE 50 index were - 18.99, - 22.99, - 22.99, and - 21.99 respectively, compared to values of - 23.17, - 27.57, - 27.57, and - 25.77 two days ago [1] - **IC Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 500 index were - 52.39, - 96.59, - 146.59, and - 265.39 respectively, compared to values of - 36.73, - 73.93, - 118.73, and - 232.13 two days ago [1] - **IM Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 1000 index were - 73.18, - 135.58, - 207.58, and - 382.98 respectively, compared to values of - 46.74, - 102.94, - 166.14, and - 333.94 two days ago [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index had increases of 0.59%, 0.83%, 0.87%, and 1.35% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index had changes of - 0.87%, 0.84%, 0.52%, and - 0.51% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - In June, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were in the expansion range for two consecutive months [2] - From January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, overseas investors who use the profits distributed by Chinese domestic resident enterprises for domestic direct investment can, if meeting the conditions, offset 10% of the investment amount against the current year's taxable amount [2] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued the identification criteria for "light - asset, high - R & D investment" on the ChiNext. About 200 listed companies meeting the criteria, mainly in strategic emerging industries such as information technology and biomedicine, are no longer subject to the 30% limit of supplementary working capital for raised funds [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued investment quotas of $3.08 billion to some qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Starting from July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will continue to be imposed on imported stainless - steel billets and hot - rolled stainless - steel sheets/coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for a period of 5 years [2] - The movie "Ne Zha: Rebirth of the Demon Child" ended with a domestic box office of 154.45 billion yuan and 324 million viewers, and the global box office exceeded 159 billion yuan [2] - From January to June, the total sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises were 1836.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.8%, and the decline in June was 18.5% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening [2] - Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July, and it is expected that the domestic supply of photovoltaic glass will decline rapidly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic sentiment has rebounded during Trump's tariff grace period, but economic pressure remains. With the implementation of policy dividends, investment and consumption demand are expected to be continuously released. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the Politburo meeting in July further increasing policies to stabilize growth [1]. - As the deadline for the US to postpone tariffs approaches, the EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, Canada has cancelled the digital service tax, and the India - US trade negotiation is at a deadlock. The subsequent progress of trade negotiations among countries needs continuous attention [2]. - The Fed is not in a hurry to act due to the unprecedented tariffs and the difficulty in predicting the impact on inflation. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the US Senate, and the US retail sales in May declined significantly [3]. - Macro - inflation trading has heated up. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and the gold price related to inflation expectations are worthy of attention. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, China's investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be issued in July. China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months [1]. - The People's Bank of China made a net injection of 30.58 billion yuan on June 26th, the highest since April 30th [1]. Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration admitted the flexibility of the tariff schedule on June 12th. The EU is preparing counter - measures, and the EU Commission President is confident of reaching an agreement by July 9th. The UK - US trade agreement has reduced tariffs on UK exports to the US. Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked over auto parts taxes [2]. US Economic Situation - Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to act. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the Senate, and the Senate will vote on the tax reform bill on Monday morning local time. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since March 2023 [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff events first lead to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the "Big Beautiful" bill passing and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. The non - ferrous sector and gold are worthy of attention, and the black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations [4]. Energy - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026. Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached. The IEA predicts that the oversupply of oil in 2025 may continue until the end of this decade. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4][7]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Important News - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month [7]. - The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, reducing tariffs on UK auto and aerospace product exports to the US [7]. - Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US, and the two sides will restart negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21, 2025 [2][7]. - The US Senate has completed the reading of the "Big Beautiful" bill and started the debate, and will vote after the debate [3][7]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for five years starting from July 1, 2025 [4][7]. - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026 [7]. - Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached [4][7].

Core Insights - The essence of non-performing asset (NPA) business lies in liberating production factors from bad assets and reintegrating them into new combinations to create new productive forces [1][2] - The management of non-performing assets is crucial for mitigating financial risks and supporting high-quality economic development, especially during economic transitions [2][6] Group 1: Understanding Non-Performing Asset Business - The domestic non-performing asset management industry originated in the late 1990s to address financial risks and promote state-owned enterprise reforms [3] - Two prevalent theories in the industry are the "Popsicle Effect" and the "Counter-Cyclical Hypothesis," which highlight the instability of micro-value and the long macro-disposal cycles of non-performing assets [3] Group 2: Profit Logic and Social Value of Non-Performing Asset Business - The existence of asset management companies is justified by their ability to demonstrate strong vitality in the national economy over the past two decades, despite the lack of comparative advantages in asset disposal [4] - Non-performing asset management plays a vital role in reallocating production factors to adapt to the current economic transformation, thus enhancing social value [6] Group 3: Role of Rating Companies in Non-Performing Asset Business - Rating companies, as independent think tanks, should leverage their expertise to assist asset management companies in developing restructuring businesses and mastering economic risk assessments [2][9] - The collaboration between asset management companies and rating companies can lead to resource sharing and complementary advantages, enhancing the effectiveness of non-performing asset management [11] Group 4: Pathways for Rating Companies to Support Non-Performing Asset Management - Rating companies can provide meaningful research support in the high-yield and junk bond sectors, expanding the scope of non-performing assets [11][12] - By utilizing their macroeconomic research capabilities, rating companies can help identify trading opportunities and facilitate enterprise restructuring [12][13] - The collaboration can also empower state-owned asset management companies to gain insights into economic risk assessments, enhancing their role in national decision-making [13]

【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 2025 年 7 月 1 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将偏强震荡 碳酸锂、螺纹 钢、玻璃、纯碱、原油、燃料油、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3904 和 3931 点，支撑位 3863 和 3852 点；IH2509 阻力位 2703 和 2728 点，支撑位 2667 和 2653 点；IC2509 阻力位 5801 和 5838 点，支撑位 5745 和 5729 点；IM2509 阻力位 62 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：昨日金价触底回升，短期市场对短期伊朗和以色列停战的计价较为充分，行 ...

Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The domestic equity market showed strong performance last week, with major indices rising over 3% and daily trading volume increasing to around 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, surpassing the 3400-point mark, which is a significant resistance level [1] - Financial, computer, and military industries performed well, while the oil and petrochemical sectors saw declines due to falling oil prices [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Observations - Despite significant tariff impacts and a slowdown in the domestic real estate market since April, the overall macroeconomic environment remains stable, supported by a strong industrial chain and manufacturing capabilities [1] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has also contributed positively to the macroeconomic performance [1] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market exhibited a fluctuating pattern last week, influenced by seasonal factors and the stock-bond relationship [2] - The strong performance of the stock market initially suppressed bond market performance, but increased liquidity from the central bank and insurance demand supported the bond market [2] - By the end of the week, the yields on 10-year government bonds and 30-year government bonds rose by 1 basis point, reaching 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [2]

金属石化 迈向黄金新时代 - 2025 年中金公司中期投资策 略会 20250630 摘要 黄金的表现与宏观经济环境密切相关。自 2022 年提出新宏观范式以来，全球 进入了高通胀、高利率、高波动的新阶段，这一变化推动了实物资产的价值上 升。2023 年 8 月，我们预测未来几年利率中枢和黄金价格中枢将持续上升， 美元未来几年面临持续贬值压力，原因包括特朗普政府的制造业回归政 策、贸易赤字缩减以及解决债务压力的需求。新兴信用品种如金银铜成 为避险选择，将进一步推动这些实物资产价值上升。各主要国家都面临 类似的债务压力，信用货币普遍存在贬值风险。 中美再平衡的实现路径包括关税、汇率和财政。关税空间收缩，财政力 度加大导致失衡加剧，汇率价格调整成为硬约束。美元贬值可通过市场 化行为实现，无需协议干预。4 月 2 号以来，美元跌幅主要发生在亚洲 时段，验证了资金在美国和亚洲之间存在再平衡。 黄金市场长期走势受美国通胀中枢和财政赤字中枢影响。看空美国通胀 和财政力度可能结束黄金牛市，反之则牛市远未结束。过去 50 年黄金 实际价格基本上由美国财政赤字解释，黄金可以抗国家信用。中国等新 兴市场国家未来还有很大的增持黄金 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June increased to 49.7%, marking a rise for two consecutive months, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [1][2] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in market demand [2] - The production index rose to 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, while the purchasing volume index increased significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2% [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, attributed to seasonal declines in consumer travel demand post-holidays [3] - The construction sector showed accelerated expansion with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by ongoing infrastructure projects [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [5] - The second quarter's average non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, consistent with the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the first half of the year [4] - Analysts emphasize the need for continued macroeconomic policy support to stimulate growth and address demand shortages in the manufacturing sector [5][6]

Core Insights - The article highlights that the weak macroeconomic environment in the United States has led to an increase in default events among issuers in May [1] Group 1 - The macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. are described as weak, contributing to financial stress among issuers [1] - There has been a noticeable rise in the number of defaults reported in May, indicating a potential trend in the market [1] - The overall economic landscape is impacting the creditworthiness of various issuers, raising concerns for investors [1]