Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various policies and initiatives implemented by local governments and companies to support housing needs for recent college graduates, focusing on rental and home purchase assistance to attract and retain talent in different cities [2][8]. Group 1: Rental Support Policies - Many cities are introducing diverse rental support policies for recent graduates, including talent apartments and rental subsidies, to alleviate housing costs [2][5]. - For instance, in Wuhan, eligible graduates can apply for talent rental housing with rent reductions of up to 1,500 yuan per month for a maximum of three years [4]. - Qingdao has implemented a policy providing up to six months of rent-free accommodation for graduates within three years of graduation [5][6]. Group 2: Company Initiatives - Some companies are enhancing their support for graduates by offering housing allowances and dormitory accommodations, further reducing the financial burden on new employees [7]. - A company in Beijing provides an 800 yuan monthly housing subsidy for employees who do not stay in company-provided dormitories [7]. Group 3: Home Purchase Support Policies - As graduates' living situations stabilize, many cities are shifting focus to home purchase support, including subsidies and favorable loan terms to encourage home buying among young professionals [8][9]. - Policies in cities like Zhuzhou and Wuhan include financial incentives for first-time homebuyers, such as purchase subsidies and enhanced loan limits [9][10]. - Shanghai has introduced measures allowing graduates to access higher loan amounts and favorable repayment terms for housing loans [10]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The support for graduates in terms of housing is aligned with national policies aimed at improving employment opportunities for youth and stabilizing the real estate market [9][10]. - Experts suggest that these initiatives not only help graduates settle in urban areas but also contribute to the overall health of the local real estate market by boosting housing consumption [10].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market is experiencing a trend of declining transaction volume and prices, with average housing prices dropping by 30% from their peak, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [2] Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market is facing a "dual decline" in both transaction amounts and areas sold, indicating a significant downturn [2] - Various government policies aimed at stimulating the market have been introduced, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions, lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, and tax exemptions for homebuyers [2] Group 2: Investment Considerations - For individuals with 500,000 yuan, it is suggested to keep the money in the bank rather than purchasing property, as the current housing prices in major cities are prohibitively high [6][8] - Even if 500,000 yuan could cover a down payment in second or third-tier cities, it would deplete all savings and impose a heavy mortgage burden, making bank savings or other investments a more prudent choice [6][8] - In a deflationary cycle, bank interest can supplement household expenses, while purchasing property could lead to significant wealth depreciation if housing prices continue to fall [8]

双降&中美经贸会谈后的债市展望 20250515 摘要 • 传统流动性指标失效，个人投资者资金分布成关键因素。今年理财扩张规 模或相对一般，对应市场为小牛市。央行主导长端利率下行风险缓解，可 关注 5 到 7 年凸性交易机会。 • 中期来看经济下行和低通胀未结束，利率下行趋势未破坏。信用债投资首 要任务是保持流动性，可适当下沉或拉长久期，关注高流动性溢价品种， 谨慎对待低流动性品种。 今年债券市场的核心主线是什么？ 今年债券市场的核心主线是流动性与预期差。预期差既包括基本面的息差，也 包括资金面的预期差。这方面会给证券市场持续带来扰动。我们整体认为今年 的债券市场是一个震荡偏强的市场，预计十年国债运行区间为 1.6 到 1.9，相 对去年利率单边下行，今年可能会有一些波动往复。 对于基本面和流动性的具体判断是什么？ 对于基本面，今年最重要的是关注是否已经见底，而不是好转。过去几年，大 家一直预期基本面单边下行，这与地产下行周期匹配。今年一季度讨论剧烈， 认为地产周期是否见底，但二季度随着逻辑被证伪，大家回到偏下行方向。目 前市场对于基本面的预期大于实际结果，即使关税政策对基本面有长期负面影 响或短期正面刺激， ...

1-4 月核心 30 城新房成交均价累计同比+5%，10 城二手房均价同比+2% ——光大核心城市房地产销售跟踪（2025 年 4 月） 要点 新房：1-4 月光大核心 30 城住宅成交面积同比+2%，成交均价同比+5%。 1）2025 年 4 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为 1,086 万㎡， 同比-5.2%，环比-25.1%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交面积 374 万㎡，同比+8.3%， 环比-18.3%，余下二线 24 城成交面积 712 万㎡，同比-11.0%，环比-28.2%。 2）2025 年 1-4 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为 4,376 万㎡， 同比+2.3%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交面积 1,435 万㎡，同比+14.2%，余下二 线 24 城成交面积 2,941 万㎡，同比-2.7%。 2025 年 5 月 15 日 行业研究 3）2025 年 1-4 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交均价为 24,553 元/ ㎡，同比+4.8%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交均价 40,461 元/㎡，同比+0.2%，余 下二线 24 城成交均价为 16, ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳门统计暨普查局数据显示，今年第1季完成缴纳印花税程序的楼宇单位及停车位 买卖共1,348个，总值53.3亿元(澳门元，下同)，较2024年第4季分别下跌1.5%及28.4%。整体住宅单位每 平方米实用面积平均价格(71,859元)录得5.5%的按季跌幅;季内获发使用准照的住宅单位共212个。 第1季住宅单位买卖有754个，按季减少130个，成交总值36.9亿元，下跌27.4%;现货住宅成交数目(644 个)和金额(32亿元)分别下跌17.6%及29%，住宅楼花成交110个，增加8个，金额(4.9亿元)则下跌15.2%。 私人建筑方面，截至今年第1季末处于设计时间和在建中的住宅单位分别有5,174个及1,785个，另有104 个正进行验楼。季内有212个住宅单位获发使用准照，全数为澳门半岛的无间隔单位。获发动工批示的 住宅单位有32个，全部位于澳门半岛，无间隔单位及两房单位分别占43.7%及56.3%。 整体住宅单位每平方米实用面积平均价格按季下跌5.5%，澳门半岛(68,043元)、凼仔(78,547元)、路环 (76,441元)分别下跌2.6%、3.6%及24.5%。现货住宅平均价格下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming land auctions in Bengbu, specifically for residential land plots 蚌挂（2025）8 and 蚌挂（2025）9, are pivotal for the city's development, indicating new growth opportunities for the region [1][6]. Group 1: Land Auction Details - 蚌挂（2025）8 is a residential land plot with an area of 78,059.83 square meters, starting price of 24,589 million yuan, and a deposit of 4,918 million yuan. The plot has a maximum building density of 32% and a green space ratio of at least 40% [2][5]. - 蚌挂（2025）9 is another residential plot covering 37,378.41 square meters, starting price of 11,831 million yuan, and a deposit of 2,367 million yuan. It has a maximum building density of 30% and a green space ratio of at least 40% [4][5]. Group 2: Urban Development Context - The land auctions align with Bengbu's overall spatial planning from 2021 to 2035, ensuring that development adheres to ecological and agricultural protection principles while meeting residential needs [6][9]. - The high-tech zone, where these plots are located, is a key growth area for Bengbu, enhancing infrastructure and attracting population and industry, thus furthering urbanization [7][10]. Group 3: Impact on Real Estate Market - The 2025 land supply plan for Bengbu focuses on real estate, with a total of 17 plots covering 1,179 acres, which includes the two residential plots in the high-tech zone, adding new housing stock to the market [11][12]. - The introduction of new residential land is expected to alleviate supply-demand imbalances in the real estate market, stabilize price expectations, and attract competitive developers, thereby improving housing quality [14][15]. Group 4: Transportation and Connectivity - Bengbu is developing a comprehensive transportation network, including high-speed rail and highways, which will enhance connectivity with surrounding cities and increase the city's attractiveness for population and investment [15].

Core Insights - Ningbo's real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in new home sales, with April data showing a 72.8% month-on-month drop and a 47% year-on-year decrease in new residential transactions [1] - The second-hand housing market remains relatively active, with 4,038 units sold in April, which is nearly six times the volume of new homes sold [1] - The majority of second-hand homes sold are priced between 1 million to 2 million, indicating a focus on affordable housing for first-time buyers [1][3] Sales Data Analysis - In April, the average price per square meter for homes generally ranged from 10,000 to 20,000, with properties exceeding 30,000 being rare [3] - The total number of second-hand homes listed for sale in the six districts was over 94,000, suggesting a competitive market where properties must meet current demand to sell [5] - The key selling factors for second-hand homes are competitive pricing and suitable layouts that cater to first-time buyers' needs [6] Market Trends - The market is shifting towards a focus on the essence of housing, emphasizing the importance of property services, community amenities, and overall living quality [9] - There remains a segment of buyers looking for improved or investment properties, although they are struggling to find suitable options [8]

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In April 2025, the residential market did not maintain the momentum from March, with a total sales area of 996.3 million square meters, representing a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3] - Despite the overall market cooling, cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou still experienced "daylight sales," indicating structural heat in the market, particularly in high-demand areas [5] - The average land transaction price in key cities remains high, with significant premium rates observed, particularly in first-tier and core second-tier cities [7] Group 2: Policy and Government Actions - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on urban renewal actions and increasing the supply of high-quality housing [1] - Future policies may include expanding demand by lifting purchase restrictions, promoting housing delivery, and accelerating the acquisition of existing properties and land [2] Group 3: Company Developments - Poly Developments achieved significant success in April, securing two high-value land parcels in Hangzhou and Xiamen, with floor prices of 52,000 yuan and 51,000 yuan per square meter, respectively, marking the highest prices for the month [1][9] - Sunac China's overseas debt restructuring has made substantial progress, with a total of approximately 95.5 billion USD involved, potentially allowing the company to convert debt into equity [15] Group 4: Investment and Financing - In April 2025, the top 100 real estate companies acquired land worth 116.53 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% but a year-on-year increase of 87.4% [8] - The average financing cost for domestic bonds issued by real estate companies in April was 2.7%, a slight decrease from March [15]

022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2025/05/14） 编辑人 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.14） 固定收益研究 发行利率多数上行，收益率全部下行——信用债周报 行业研究 贵金属表现亮眼，中重稀土价格上涨——金属行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一 季报综述 贸易会谈传利好，宏观情绪逐渐缓和——金属行业周报 中美关税风险阶段性缓和，维持家居业绩改善预期——轻工制造&纺织服饰 行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 固定收益研究 发行利率多数上行，收益率全部下行——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（5 月 5 日至 5 月 11 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为 0 BP 至 8 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，其中，企业债零发行，其余品种发行金额增加；信用债净融资额环比增加， 企业债净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债、短期融资券净融资额为负，公司债、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China is experiencing a long-term adjustment, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, prompting various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging home purchases [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, the national sales area of commercial housing is expected to decrease by 11.3% year-on-year, with sales revenue declining by 15.7% [1]. - The new residential price index in 300 cities is projected to drop by 3.2% year-on-year, while the second-hand residential price index is expected to fall by 5.1%, marking the third consecutive year of overall price decline [1]. Group 2: Government Policies - Local governments, except for core areas in first-tier cities, have largely relaxed purchase restrictions and increased the upper limit for housing provident fund loans [3]. - Banks have reduced mortgage rates to below 3% and lowered down payment ratios to 1.5% [3]. - Tax authorities have provided exemptions on deed tax and value-added tax for homebuyers [3]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Jack Ma emphasizes that housing should be for living, not speculation, suggesting that it may be a good time for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes [3][5]. - Li Ka-shing notes that the market is returning to rationality, and decisions should be based on personal financial situations and family needs when prices reach reasonable levels [5]. Group 4: Buyer Recommendations - For first-time and upgrading homebuyers, 2025 is seen as a favorable time to purchase due to a significant average price drop of 30% since 2022 and ongoing supportive policies [6]. - Speculative buyers are advised to "continue to observe" as there remains considerable market bubble, particularly in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, where price-to-income ratios exceed 40 [7][8]. - Many industry insiders believe that while core areas in first-tier cities may see price increases, third and fourth-tier cities have already experienced significant declines, suggesting a more stable environment for potential buyers in those areas [8].