证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 电力 火电出力由降转增，1-5 月绿电交易电量增长近 50% 本周行情回顾：本周（6.16-6.20）上证指数报收 3359.90 点，下跌 0.51%，沪深 300 指数 报收 3846.64 点，下跌 0.45%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2913.94 点，下跌 1.14%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 0.68pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 11 位。 本周行业观点： ➢ 5 月火电发电增速由负转正，水电降幅扩大。根据国家统计局发布数据，5 月份全国 规上发电量 7378 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.5%，增速比 4 月份放缓 0.4pct；日均发电 238.0 亿千瓦时。1—5 月份，工业发电量 37266 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.3%，扣除天 数原因，日均发电量同比增长 1.0%。 分品种看，5 月单月，规上工业火电由降转增，水电降幅扩大，核电、风电、太阳能 发电增速放缓。其中，规上工业火电同比增长 1.2%，4 月份为下降 2.3%；规上工业 水电下降 14.3%，降幅比 4 月份扩大 7.8 个百分 ...

行业深度报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 22 日 证券研究报告 公用事业 证券分析师 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 绿电底层需求持续扩容 看好下游运营和监测设备 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新型电力系统系列报告之一：绿电绿证碳市场政策体系全景梳理 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 在新型电力系统机制框架的理论体系中，电力价值呈现出多元复合的特性，其核心 由能量价值、时间价值与环境价值三大要素构成，当前碳市场建设的滞后，致使电 力的环境价值未能有效纳入定价范围，成为新能源发展承压的症结所在。为有效解 决电力环境价值定价问题，我国系统性构建了以碳市场、绿电交易市场和绿证交易 市场为核心的绿色电力交易市场体系，其中碳市场交易碳配额，绿电市场交易绿电 （含绿证价值），绿证市场交易绿证，同时还催生出碳排放权的 ...

2025 年 06 月 22 日 环保及公用事业 5 月用电量数据发布，虚拟电厂建设加 速推进 本周专题：虚拟电厂推进加速，商业模式进一步清晰 6 月 4 日，国家发改委与国家能源局发布《关于组织开展新型电力系 统建设第一批试点工作的通知》，通知提出要围绕构网型技术、系统 友好型新能源电站、智能微电网、算力与电力协同、虚拟电厂、大规 模高比例新能源外送、新一代煤电等七个方向开展试点工作。这是继 4 月"357 号文"发布后又一国家层面加快虚拟电厂发展的文件。地 方层面看，上海、陕西等地相继发布相关政策，虚拟电厂建设加速推 进。357 号文的发布，从明确准入条件、健全电能量市场机制、完善 辅助服务市场机制和优化需求响应机制四个方面，为虚拟电厂参与电 力市场提供了清晰的路径和规范。建议关注虚拟电厂/功率预测相关 标的，国能日新、朗新集团、东方电子、恒实科技、国网信通、协鑫 能科、合康新能等；以及受益于数据中心放量的绿电标的，同力日升 等。 行情回顾： 6 月 9 日-6 月 20 日上证指数下跌 0.75%，创业板指下跌 1.45%，公用 事业指数下跌 0.87%，跑输上证综指 0.12pct,环保指数下跌 3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for companies such as Funiu Co., Ltd. and Shenneng Co., Ltd. while cautiously recommending China General Nuclear Power and Anhui Energy [4][21]. Core Viewpoints - In May, the total electricity consumption reached 809.6 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%. The first industry saw an increase of 8.4%, the second industry 2.1%, the third industry 9.4%, and urban and rural residents' consumption 9.6% [2][22]. - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain low, benefiting thermal power generation, which is anticipated to improve performance in Q2. Companies are actively investing in wind power and cogeneration assets for long-term growth potential [4][19]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The electricity sector underperformed the broader market, with the public utility sector closing at 2355.40 points, down 1.13%, and the electricity sub-sector at 3131.64 points, down 1.31% [1][8]. - Among the electricity sub-sectors, photovoltaic generation fell by 1.57%, wind power by 1.28%, while thermal services rose by 2.08% [1][13]. Industry Data Tracking - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region was 663.00 RMB/ton, with no change week-on-week [48]. - The report notes that the electricity market is experiencing a decline in coal and gas prices, with the average transaction price for coal in Guangdong dropping by 28.43% [69]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable performance and growth potential, particularly in thermal power and hydropower sectors, such as Changjiang Electric Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [4][20]. - It also suggests monitoring companies involved in asset restructuring and mergers, as these are expected to gain traction this year [20].

6月19日，河南电力现货市场短周期结算试运行启动，当天112台煤电机组、390座新能源场站、127家售 电公司、12座独立储能电站参与交易，这标志着河南省电力市场化改革迈出关键一步。(河南日报) ...

（文章来源：中国新闻网） "今年3月，国际可再生能源电力消费倡议组织RE100宣布无条件认可中国绿证，中国绿证的国际认可度 上升到一个新的高度。"国网(天津)综合能源服务公司市场经营部副经理杨延春介绍，绿色电力证书是 中国对可再生能源上网电量颁发的"电子身份证"，1张绿证对应1000千瓦时绿色电力。此次论坛通过采 购800张绿证实现全绿电供应，是国内绿证获得国际供应链全面认可后的一次重要实践。"未来中国外贸 企业、在华外资企业通过购买中国绿证，将有效增强出口产品在国际市场的绿色竞争力。" 据悉，天津市绿电绿证服务中心成立一年来，已服务214家企业实现全绿电供应，总电量达74.97亿千瓦 时。目前，天津市全部可再生能源发电企业均可进行绿证申领、核发和交易。(完) 中新网天津6月20日电(记者周亚强)记者20日从国家电网获悉，2025年世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者 年会(夏季达沃斯论坛)场馆方——国家会展中心(天津)已通过绿证交易，实现100%绿色电力供应，共折 合绿电电量80万千瓦时，相当于减少标煤燃烧约300吨，减排二氧化碳约600吨。 本届夏季达沃斯论坛将于6月24日至26日在国家会展中心(天津)举办。在天 ...

【DT新材料】 获悉， 6 月 20 日， 道恩股份 发布公告，宣布公司已完成对 安徽博斯特新材料有限公司 100% 股权的收购 ，安徽博斯特将成为公司的全 资子公司，并纳入合并报表范围。 资料显示， 安徽博斯特 成立于2020年9月9日，注册资本2000万元，总部位于安徽省宣城市， 由瞿建华100%持股。产品包括 专注于高分子新型材 料、热塑性弹性体、可降解塑料等。 2023年公司营收1.72亿元，净利润329.99万元； 2024年1-11月营收1.57亿元，净利润336.69万元。 通过本次收购， 道恩股份深耕 线缆新材料 细分领域，尤其是 电动汽车 、 海底电缆 等市场，并与公司现有业务（如高填充PP材料研发）形成协同效 应。 道恩股份相关负责人表示看好将来线缆的（市场）用量，用量会非常大。 电线电缆 产品是电气化、信息化社会中必要的配套产品，尤其是在新能源、高端装备制造业等高速发展下，市场前景广阔 。 根据中国电器工业协会 数据，2020-2023年电线电缆业绩一直稳定增长，2023年我国电力电缆行业市场规模约为13017.6亿元，同比增长7%，初步核算2024年市场规模 达13512.3亿元。 不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain and new energy power market are undergoing significant changes, requiring downstream companies to adapt their strategies and offerings to remain competitive [2] Group 1: Market Changes and Company Strategy - After the "531" policy, photovoltaic power plants are increasingly focusing on consumption capacity in site selection, channels, and business models [2] - TCL Photovoltaic Technology has made strategic adjustments, prioritizing high-consumption areas and enterprises for business development [3] - The company has introduced financial products and solutions, such as the "Special Energy" series, which includes innovative financing options that extend beyond traditional models [3] Group 2: International Market Expansion - TCL's overseas business has evolved, with TCL SunPower Global enabling entry into high-end international markets, expanding from Europe to Southeast Asia and the Middle East [4] - The company tailors products to different regions, emphasizing aesthetics and quality in Europe while adapting to local weather conditions in Southeast Asia [4] Group 3: Product Differentiation and Innovation - The "Zero Carbon Villa" product targets new consumer groups, including villa owners and self-built homeowners, with plans for more financial and scenario-based solutions [5] - The company's direction is towards "integration," combining photovoltaic systems with storage, charging piles, and heat pumps, exemplified by the domestic version of the overseas "photovoltaic-storage-pump-charging" system [6] Group 4: Response to Market Volatility - The company aims for high-quality development, focusing on finding certainty amid uncertainty, with a strong belief in the long-term demand for photovoltaic solutions and carbon neutrality goals [7] - The decrease in upstream product prices is seen as beneficial for downstream operations, although it intensifies market competition [8] Group 5: AI Integration - AI is being integrated into various operational processes, including document review and design, to enhance efficiency and reduce labor costs [9] - The company is focusing on AI design as a key area, utilizing AI for site assessments and planning, and is also exploring AI applications in electricity trading [9]

Core Points - The government of Zibo City held a press conference to discuss measures for ensuring electricity supply during the summer peak in 2025 and improving the modern electricity business environment [1] - Wang Xin, Deputy General Manager of State Grid Zibo Power Supply Company, emphasized the importance of supporting major projects for high-quality development and local economic growth [3] Group 1 - Major projects are considered a driving force for high-quality development, crucial for stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The company has developed a comprehensive set of service measures to support the early completion and effective operation of major projects [3] - A "three-level guarantee" service system has been established for major projects, including dedicated personnel and customized power supply plans [3] Group 2 - The company has opened a "green channel" for electricity connection, allowing for expedited processing of applications [3] - Six power grid upgrade projects have been completed ahead of schedule to meet the growing load demand [3] - In 2023, the company has provided electricity to 99 major projects, with 72 of them receiving power supply to the designated planning boundaries [3] Group 3 - The company promotes integrated services such as "power supply + energy efficiency" and "electricity e-finance" to assist major projects [3] - Value-added services include comprehensive energy efficiency assessments and electricity financing to help clients reduce costs and improve efficiency [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Add-B" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned in the "new energy + new infrastructure" dual-track strategy, aiming to create an integrated ecosystem for digital computing and energy [1][4] - The synergy between computing power and green energy is seen as a critical trend for the development of the digital economy [3][56] - The company has successfully transitioned from financial investments to industrial investments, significantly increasing its asset scale in emerging industries [4][23] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has transformed its business model since 2021, focusing on industrial investments and holding significant stakes in key subsidiaries [16][18] - As of December 31, 2024, the total asset scale is approximately 661.7 billion, with emerging industry investments accounting for 78.6% [23] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 55.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.38%, and a net profit of 539 million [24][25] - The gross profit reached approximately 26.36 billion, with a gross margin of about 47% [25][29] Market Trends - The renewable energy sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a 23% year-on-year increase in new installed capacity in 2024 [31] - The integration of green electricity and computing power is reshaping the energy landscape of the digital economy [31][41] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its presence in the renewable energy market, having significantly increased its project indicators in 2024 [69] - It aims to leverage its dual-track strategy to optimize asset allocation and enhance investment returns [5][6]