据知情的OPEC+代表透露，成员国正在讨论7月连续第三次日增产41.1万桶的方案（为最初计划的三倍），但尚未达成最终协议。最终决定将于6月1日的会 议上作出。 自OPEC+宣布5月和6月分别增产41.1万桶（相当于OPEC+当前产量的1%）以来，原油价格已经大幅下跌。此举打破了其多年来捍卫石油市场的历史惯例。 周四，国际油价进一步下挫，美、布两油均跌超1%。 在特朗普4月发起贸易战的同时，OPEC+出人意料的增产最初对油价造成重创，导致布伦特原油价格跌至四年低点，不到60美元/桶。此后，随着白宫撤回部 分关税，油价有所回升。 即便如此，许多预测机构今年仍对原油市场持悲观观点。上周，国际能源署（IEA）预测，由于经济逆风，2025年第一季度强劲的全球石油需求增长将在剩 余时间放缓。 也正因如此，高盛集团预测，OPEC+在达成7月增产协议后，将暂停进一步增产。 八个主要的OPEC+产油国将于6月1日举行视频会议，确定7月产量水平。整个22国联盟还将于5月28日举行一系列线上会议，届时将有机会审查2025年和 2026年的基本生产配额。 Onyx Commodities Ltd石油研究与分析主管哈里·奇林吉里安（H ...

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 05 月 22 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 Z0017388 中东局势暂时可控，油价承压 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格下滑 截至 5 月 21 日收盘，2025 年 7 月 WTI（换月）跌 0.46 报 61.57 美元/桶，跌幅 0.74%；2025 年 7 月布伦特原油跌 0.47 报 64.91 美元/ 桶，跌幅 0.72%。 二、伊朗核协议谈判于 5 月 23 日举行 据阿曼外交大臣表示，第五轮伊朗-美国谈判将于 5 月 23 日星期 五在罗马举行。市场对于美国与伊朗是否能达成核协议存疑。此外， 据两名以色列消息人士表示，以色列正在准备在美伊谈判破裂之际迅 速打击伊朗的核设施。 三、美原油库存增幅超预期 截至 5 月 16 日的一周，美国商业原油库存增加至 4.432 亿桶，尽 管仍较五年同期平均水平低 6%，库存的意外增长与市场预期形成鲜 明反差。此前市场普遍预计库存将因需求回暖而减少，但数据显示市 场对基本面走势的判断可能过于乐观。 四、后市展望 投资咨询资格证号： 能源化工丨日报 ...

初夏时节，莽莽昆仑山区乍暖还寒，2400多名石油物探工人顶风冒沙，攀爬绝壁，在人迹罕至的昆仑山中为祖国找油找气。 三维物探被形容为给地球做"CT"，物探工人实施模拟地震，采集地震波数据，帮助科研人员"看清"地下岩层结构，从而判断地下哪里埋藏有石油或者天然 气。 中国石油东方物探塔里木物探分公司承担的塔里木油田普西三维项目位于叶城县的昆仑山区，于今年3月份开始启动。 普西三维项目工区最高海拔3200米，山体最大落差700多米。 10:01 今年，普西三维项目还引进了直升机和无人机。大件装备上山用直升机，小件装备用无人机来吊装，极大减轻了工作强度，提高了工作效率。直升机驾驶员 和无人机手也成了工人们心里最可爱的人。 直升机飞行员易湘民从事山地物探吊装作业已经6年了。 无人机吊装手方庆海今年第一次在山区从事物探作业，与他熟悉的植保作业来说，山区的无人机吊装操作难度更高。 为了更好地操作飞机，方庆海每次都要爬到山体的高处。这对他来说，属于全新的挑战。 测量员王子剑已经从事物探工作13年。他2020年也曾在这片工区做过二维物探项目。 王子剑参与的物探项目已经有20多个，每年都要在野外工作六七个月。 从今年3月开始，中国 ...

金融界2025年5月22日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，杉数科技（北京）有限公司、上海杉数网络科 技有限公司、广州杉数科技有限公司、杉数科技（南京）有限公司、第五范式（深圳）科技有限公司、 杉数科技（苏州）有限公司申请一项名为"一种石油运输和生产计划协同优化方法、装置及介质"的专 利，公开号CN120013194A，申请日期为2025年02月。 广州杉数科技有限公司，成立于2023年，位于广州市，是一家以从事软件和信息技术服务业为主的企 业。企业注册资本100万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，广州杉数科技有限公司专利信息102条，此外 企业还拥有行政许可3个。 杉数科技（南京）有限公司，成立于2023年，位于南京市，是一家以从事专业技术服务业为主的企业。 企业注册资本300万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，杉数科技（南京）有限公司专利信息102条，此外 企业还拥有行政许可1个。 第五范式（深圳）科技有限公司，成立于2018年，位于深圳市，是一家以从事软件和信息技术服务业为 主的企业。企业注册资本100万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，第五范式（深圳）科技有限公司专利 信息254条，此外企业还拥有行政许可4个。 杉数 ...

Group 1: Core Agreement - Russia will increase annual oil supply to China by 2.5 million tons, raising the supply cap from 10 million tons to 12.5 million tons, with the contract extended until 2034 [2] Group 2: Price Discounts - The additional 2.5 million tons of oil will be priced $12 per barrel lower than the international market, representing a discount of approximately 15%, which is higher than the previous average discount of about 10% [3] - This price concession reflects Russia's deep reliance on the Chinese market amid Western sanctions, with 78% of Russia's oil exports directed to Asia, over 50% of which goes to China [3] Group 3: Transportation Routes - The new oil supply will primarily be transported through Kazakhstan's pipeline network, marking a strategic shift to diversify transportation routes [5][6] - Russia's concessions include the transfer of some pipeline operational rights to Kazakhstan, reducing its control over transportation [8] - The agreement also allows for risk-sharing by reducing dependence on a single route, providing a "dual insurance" mechanism for energy security [8] Group 4: Settlement Mechanism - The transaction will utilize a settlement mechanism in Renminbi and Ruble, bypassing the SWIFT system, which has significant strategic implications [9][11] - This arrangement helps Russia avoid sanctions risks and allows for a closed-loop system of oil-for-goods trade with China, eliminating dependence on the US dollar [11] - The shift to Renminbi settlement is expected to lower transaction costs, saving approximately $525,000 annually based on the new oil supply [11] Group 5: Long-term Commitment - The extension of the supply contract until 2034 provides stability for Chinese refineries, allowing for necessary upgrades and reducing investment risks [12][14] - This long-term agreement intertwines the energy interests of both countries, reinforcing strategic cooperation in international affairs [12][14] Group 6: Geopolitical Implications - Russia's support for China's stance on Taiwan and its tacit approval of China's energy influence in Central Asia reflect a geopolitical compromise [15] - The agreement indirectly endorses China's Belt and Road Initiative by allowing greater energy control through Kazakhstan, crucial for China's dual circulation strategy [15] Group 7: Strategic Evolution - The 2.5 million tons oil purchase agreement signifies a shift from "resource complementarity" to "strategic symbiosis" in Sino-Russian energy cooperation [17] - Russia's concessions across various dimensions highlight its survival strategy under Western sanctions and recognition of China's market position [17]

Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 1.3 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 900,000 barrels, putting short-term pressure on oil prices [1] - Gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 600,000 barrels, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [1] - Despite weak demand, refinery processing activity increased, with an average processing rate of 16.5 million barrels per day, reflecting preparations for the upcoming summer driving season [1] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reached 443.2 million barrels, which is still 6% lower than the five-year average [1] - Propane/propylene inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels, indicating tight supply conditions [1] - Gasoline and distillate production increased to 9.6 million barrels per day and 4.7 million barrels per day, respectively, contributing to market oversupply [2] Demand Trends - Over the past four weeks, the average daily supply of petroleum products in the U.S. was 19.6 million barrels, down 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Gasoline demand decreased by 1% year-on-year, while distillate demand fell by 4.2%, highlighting overall weak consumption [1] - Jet fuel demand showed a positive trend, increasing by 4% year-on-year, indicating signs of recovery in the travel industry [1] Import Dynamics - Average crude oil imports were 6.1 million barrels per day, up by 24,700 barrels week-on-week, but down 13.5% year-on-year [2] - Gasoline imports reached 747,000 barrels per day, and distillate imports were 141,000 barrels per day, contributing to inventory growth [2]

Core Insights - OPEC+ is aiming to regain market share from U.S. shale oil producers by potentially lowering oil prices to $55-60 per barrel, which could create uncertainty for other producers [4][9][10] - The U.S. has seen a 60% increase in oil production over the past decade, while OPEC's production has declined, leading to a shift in market dynamics [4][6] - The cost of production for U.S. shale oil producers has risen, with many needing oil prices above $65 per barrel to be profitable, compared to significantly lower costs for Saudi Arabia and Russia [5][12] OPEC+ Strategy - OPEC+ has shifted from production cuts to increasing output, with a focus on reclaiming lost market share [9][10] - Saudi Arabia and Russia are collaborating to implement strategies that could pressure other OPEC+ members and U.S. shale producers [9][10] - The organization has not officially declared a price target but is prepared to maintain oil prices around $60 per barrel to balance their budgets [13] Market Dynamics - The Brent crude oil price has fluctuated between $70-80 per barrel, recently dropping to around $58 due to OPEC+ actions and global economic concerns [10] - U.S. shale oil production is facing challenges as prime drilling areas are depleting, leading to increased production costs and potential declines in output [5][10] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. has decreased, indicating a potential downturn in production capacity [10][11] Financial Implications - The price war initiated by OPEC+ could lead to widespread financial strain on oil companies, resulting in reduced capital expenditures, layoffs, and dividend cuts [11] - Countries reliant on oil revenues, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, face budgetary pressures if oil prices remain low, with estimates suggesting Russia needs prices above $77 per barrel and Saudi Arabia above $90 to balance their budgets [12][13]

Core Insights - The U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory reached its highest level since October 21, 2022, as of the week ending May 16 [1] - Gasoline inventory saw the largest increase since January 31, 2025 [1] - Commercial crude oil inventory, excluding strategic reserves, is at its highest level since July 5, 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday (May 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.56 per barrel, down $0.13 or 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.19 - $63.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.38 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.85 - $66 [1] - According to a news report from a Middle - Eastern country, Khamenei doubts whether the nuclear negotiation with the US can reach an agreement as Iran is reviewing the proposal for the fifth - round negotiation. If the agreement is reached and US sanctions on Iran are relaxed, the agreement between the two countries will increase Iran's daily oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels [2] - The International Energy Agency released its May "Oil Market Monthly Report" on Thursday. The report believes that economic headwinds and record - high sales of electric vehicles will reduce the average daily global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels for the rest of 2025. At this rate, the average daily global oil demand growth will slow down from 990,000 barrels in the first quarter of this year [3] - Currently, the progress of the two negotiations is poor, and the trade tensions are temporarily relieved, so international oil prices are temporarily supported. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited, mainly due to Trump's uncertain tariff policy affecting the economy and OPEC+ maintaining the production - increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear agreement is reached, the pressure on the oil supply side will continue to increase. The oil consumption increments of major consumer countries during the summer oil consumption peak season may be affected by factors such as the sluggish economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, and oil prices will still be under pressure [4]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月21日） 能源： 2. 国际锡协会首席代表：缅甸佤邦已于2025年4月下旬正式获准全面恢复锡矿生产，目前正在逐步复 苏。 3. 阿根廷经济部长：小麦和大麦出口免税延长至2026年3月31日。豁免不适用于大豆、玉米、向日葵、 高粱或副产品。 4. 美国国务卿鲁比奥：美国已经向阿联酋和其他国家表示，他们正在把苏丹的冲突变成一场代理人战 争。 1. 美官员：情报显示以色列可能准备打击伊朗核设施 但最终决定尚未作出。 2. 伊朗副外长：伊朗已收到关于举行下一轮美伊核谈判的提议，目前正在进行审查。 3. 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊：我认为与美国的核谈判不会成功。 4. 乌克兰外长：对俄罗斯石油的价格上限应降至每桶30美元。 5. 印度计划到2040年花费100亿美元购买112艘原油运输船。 6. 美国准备再延长雪佛龙在委内瑞拉的豁免期60天。 7. 卡塔尔能源公司CEO：卡塔尔北油田东扩项目将于2026年中期投产。 8. 波兰石油公司：在钻探过程中发现了一个新的较小油田，储量可达200万桶石油。 11. 哈萨克斯坦能源部：预计今年Tengiz油田产量不会进一步上升。哈萨克斯坦正 ...