【导读】荀玉根卸任国泰海通首席经济学家 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 国泰海通证券研究所迎来人事调整。 记者获悉，日前，国泰海通证券已在内部下发人事任命调整通知，荀玉根不再担任公司首席经济学家、研究与机构业务委员会委员、政策和产业研究院联 席院长、博士后科研工作站办公室主任等职务。 荀玉根已经办理离职手续，但去向暂未透露。 今年4月，他以海通证券首席经济学家、研究所所长身份履新国泰海通证券首席经济学家。 公开资料显示，荀玉根曾任职于中山证券、华泰联合证券，2011年加入海通证券，历任海通证券研究所副所长、首席策略分析师等职务。2023年12月，荀 玉根正式接任海通证券研究所所长一职，同时担任海通证券首席经济学家。 荀玉根获得过15个全国最佳分析师冠军，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖等最佳分析师的"全满贯"得主，实现新财富最佳分析师"六连冠"，著有《荀玉根讲策 略：少即是多》。 今年6月初，"强强联手"后的国泰海通证券在上海举办首场中期策略会，但作为首席经济学家的荀玉根并未登场亮相。 6月11日，荀玉根以国泰海通证券首席经济学家的身份在其微信号发布题为"宁做乌龟，不做兔子——2015年牛市十周年思考"的文章。 荀玉根指出， ...

记者获悉，日前，国泰海通证券已在内部下发人事任命调整通知，荀玉根不再担任公司首席 经济学家、研究与机构业务委员会委员、政策和产业研究院联席院长、博士后科研工作站办 公室主任等职务。 荀玉根已经办理离职手续，但去向暂未透露。 今年4月，他以海通证券首席经济学家、研究所所长身份履新国泰海通证券首席经济学家。 公开资料显示，荀玉根曾任职于中山证券、华泰联合证券，2011年加入海通证券，历任海通 证券研究所副所长、首席策略分析师等职务。2023年12月，荀玉根正式接任海通证券研究所 所长一职，同时担任海通证券首席经济学家。 荀玉根获得过15个全国最佳分析师冠军，是新财富、水晶球、金牛奖等最佳分析师的"全满 贯"得主，实现新财富最佳分析师"六连冠"，著有《荀玉根讲策略：少即是多》。 今年6月初，"强强联手"后的国泰海通证券在上海举办首场中期策略会，但作为首席经济学家 的荀玉根并未登场亮相。 【导读】荀玉根卸任国泰海通首席经济学家 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 国泰海通证券研究所迎来人事调整。 编辑： 杜妍 校对：王玥 制作：鹿米 审核： 陈墨 版权声明 《中国基金报》对本平台所刊载的原创内容享有著作权，未经授权禁止转载，否则 ...

（原标题：和讯投顾高璐明：A股上攻概率较大！确认主升开启信号） 市场方面，今日上攻概率较大，因欧美主要指数集体上攻，A股上攻力度强，三大指数均涨超1%，且 沪深两市量能大幅放大超2900亿，场外资金进场，市场已突破前期3403点平台位置形成有效突破，虽成 交量未达1.5万亿、券商发力幅度有待增大，但市场已逐渐进入有效突破反冲，给出主升三浪开启信 号，若今日券商板块继续发力、市场继续上攻，将完全确认市场进入有效突破反冲，主升三浪三走势开 启。 操作上，前日已提示仓位轻者可适当加仓，昨日上攻时又强调可适当提升仓位，今日若市场继续确认， 仓位轻者仍可加重仓位，否则已加仓者持有等待上涨。短线存在热点，今日关注权重板块能否发力、市 场能否继续上攻以确认主升三浪三开启信号，当前市场较稳定，以做多为主，不跌破3403点即短线做 多，但不建议仓位过重。 6月25日，和讯投顾高璐明称，昨日三大指数集体放量上攻，深夜中东局势有新变化致原油大跌，国内 发布金融支持提振消费政策利好，今日市场走势受关注。消息面上，中东虽宣布停火但双方仍有冲突， 局势未完全稳定但趋于平稳，油气、航运、核污染防治等方向因不确定性高难再吸引资金，即便反攻也 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown an "orderly progress" this year, with an increase in IPO activity and a normalization of the delisting mechanism [2][6] - As of June 24, 50 companies have successfully listed, raising approximately 37 billion yuan, indicating growth compared to the same period last year [2][4] - 13 companies have been delisted this year, a significant decrease from 53 in the previous year, reflecting a stricter enforcement of delisting regulations [5][6] Group 2: IPO Activity - Companies such as Haiyang Technology, Yingshi Innovation, and Huazhi Jie have recently entered the A-share market, contributing to the active IPO landscape [3][4] - Haiyang Technology, which focuses on nylon 6 products, and Yingshi Innovation, specializing in smart imaging devices, are among the notable IPOs, with Yingshi raising 1.938 billion yuan for its projects [3][4] - The revenue projections for Yingshi Innovation from 2022 to 2024 are 2.041 billion yuan, 3.636 billion yuan, and 5.574 billion yuan, respectively [3] Group 3: Delisting Mechanism - The delisting process has become more routine, with 150 companies receiving ST or *ST warnings this year, indicating a focus on corporate governance and compliance [6][7] - Companies like *ST Jiyuan and Zhonghang Chanyin have faced delisting due to poor performance and non-compliance, highlighting the market's shift towards eliminating "zombie companies" [5][6] - The regulatory environment is evolving, with a push for stricter delisting standards and improved investor protection mechanisms [9] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The orderly progress in the market is expected to optimize resource allocation, directing funds to growth-oriented companies and enhancing support for the real economy [6] - The quality of listed companies is anticipated to improve as low-efficiency firms are eliminated, compelling remaining companies to strengthen compliance and core competitiveness [6] - A cleaner market ecosystem will likely enhance investor confidence and market vitality, supported by a more market-oriented and legal framework [6]

Core Insights - The recent wave of fund liquidations, particularly among initiator funds, has drawn significant market attention, with 41 out of 131 funds liquidated this year being initiator funds, many of which focus on sectors like new energy and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 1: Challenges Faced by Initiator Funds - The low establishment threshold for initiator funds, requiring only 50 million yuan for initial capital compared to 200 million yuan for regular public funds, leads to a proliferation of small funds that struggle to survive [3] - The requirement for initiator funds to reach a scale of 200 million yuan within three years poses a significant challenge, as many funds fail to meet this threshold, resulting in automatic termination of their contracts [3] - The withdrawal of initial "hot money" that supports new fund launches contributes to the difficulties faced by initiator funds, as these funds often see a decline in capital after initial establishment [4] Group 2: Market Conditions and Management Issues - Poor performance in the A-share market has created a lack of profit opportunities, making it difficult for initiator funds to attract new investors, with many funds' net asset values falling below 1 yuan [4] - The majority of fund managers for initiator funds lack star status and market appeal, which limits their ability to attract new investors and often relegates these positions to training grounds for less experienced managers [5] - The rapid issuance of new funds leads to the marginalization of existing initiator funds, as investors are encouraged to abandon older funds in favor of newer offerings, further complicating the growth prospects for established initiator funds [5]

6月24日，盘面应该给了非常强烈的惊喜，38个点的上涨，而且昨天呢也是21个点的上涨，我们可以看到两天的上涨将近60个点，几乎收复了所有 的失地前面的这个湿地全部收复，而且把5月14号的这个高点还给打破了。和讯投顾朱和旺表示，我们知道今年最高点是3月19号的这个高点 3439，那么现在离左侧的这个高点只差19个点，只差一步之遥，明后天有可能就会实现这个目标。那么有很多人说今天的这个上涨到底是什么原 因？这个行情是不是从今天开始，接下来就会往唉3500 3600甚至3800点这个方向走？呢我们首先要搞清楚当前形成这根阳线背后到底是有哪些原 因，你把原因搞清楚了，那么接下来这个原因能不能够继续往后？对吧？发酵我们就很清楚了，我们首先看一下为什么今天啊会突破3400点？首 先我们可以看到外部的情况，在美国的斡旋之下有停火的迹象，美国宣布停火之后，伊朗依然打了以色列，而且以色列现在也有回应，说他打了 我我还要打回去，但是大家可以看到世界的油价是真实的，什么叫油价是真实的？我们可以看到油价现在并没有反弹回去。 昨天晚上油价从78牛油从78掉到今天，最低跌破了65块，那布伦特也从79块掉到了今天，最低也只有66块多钱。那 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.07% with a trading volume of 920.72 million shares and a transaction value of 1,161.24 billion yuan, representing a 31.32% increase compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Non-bank Financials: +2.69%, transaction value of 622.93 billion yuan, led by Xiangcai Co. with a gain of 10.05% [1]. - Electric Equipment: +2.58%, transaction value of 1,116.33 billion yuan, led by Xinde New Materials with a gain of 20.01% [1]. - Retail: +2.53%, transaction value of 151.10 billion yuan, led by Zhejiang Dongri with a gain of 10.02% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Oil and Petrochemicals: -1.50%, transaction value of 180.21 billion yuan, led by Tongyuan Petroleum with a loss of 18.73% [2]. - National Defense and Military Industry: -0.31%, transaction value of 485.29 billion yuan, led by Jieqiang Equipment with a loss of 16.52% [2]. - Coal: -0.26%, transaction value of 52.03 billion yuan, led by Yunmei Energy with a loss of 2.51% [2]. Notable Stocks - Leading gainers included: - Xiangcai Co. in Non-bank Financials with a gain of 10.05% [1]. - Xinde New Materials in Electric Equipment with a gain of 20.01% [1]. - Zhejiang Dongri in Retail with a gain of 10.02% [1]. - Notable decliners included: - Tongyuan Petroleum in Oil and Petrochemicals with a loss of 18.73% [2]. - Jieqiang Equipment in National Defense and Military Industry with a loss of 16.52% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the CSI A500 Index has shown strong performance, with a 1.25% increase, and specific stocks like Guoxuan High-Tech and Guangxun Technology have also seen significant gains [1][2] - The CSI A500 ETF leader has a recent scale of 17.04 billion yuan, making it the largest in the Shanghai market, with a recent increase of 14.1 million shares in the past six months [1][2] - The CSI A500 Index has outperformed the CSI 300 Index with a 21.05% increase since the "924" market rally, indicating a favorable investment outlook [2][3] Group 2 - The CSI A500 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of 500 representative listed companies across various industries, balancing traditional and emerging sectors [2] - Analysts predict a high expected return for the CSI A500 Index, estimating a 22% return over the next year and a 10% annualized return over the next three years [2] - The A-share market is expected to show resilience and a steady upward trend in the second half of 2025, supported by policy measures and increased long-term capital inflow [3]

Core Insights - The increasing external uncertainties have led to a heightened focus on sectors with higher certainty, highlighting the value of quality core assets in the A-share market [1] - The Hu-Shen 300 ETF (510300) has demonstrated a significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 1.15 billion yuan on June 23, leading the market among ETFs tracking the Hu-Shen 300 Index [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Hu-Shen 300 ETF (510300) is currently the largest ETF in the A-share market, with a latest scale of 371.465 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume exceeding 4.1 billion yuan since 2025, showcasing its scale and liquidity advantages [1] - The current dividend yield of the Hu-Shen 300 Index is 3.17%, which is attractive as it has been higher than 90.85% of the time since the base date (December 31, 2004) [1] - The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the index is 12.9 times, positioned within a reasonable range of 47.88% since the base date, indicating potential for significant valuation uplift [1] Group 2: Historical Performance and Distribution - Since its establishment on May 4, 2012, the Hu-Shen 300 ETF has distributed dividends 13 times, with a record dividend amount of 8.394 billion yuan for the 2025 fiscal year, totaling 16.576 billion yuan in cumulative dividends, the highest among domestic stock ETFs [1] - As of the end of 2024, the number of holders of the Hu-Shen 300 ETF has exceeded 792,900, marking a new high since its inception and making it one of the few ETFs tracking the Hu-Shen 300 Index with over 200,000 holders in the A-share market [1] - The cumulative profit of the Hu-Shen 300 ETF since its inception has reached 62.7 billion yuan, making it one of the only equity funds in the A-share market with cumulative profits exceeding 60 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Cost Efficiency - The management fee and custody fee rates for the Hu-Shen 300 ETF and its linked funds are 0.15% per year and 0.05% per year, respectively, representing the lowest fee levels in the current market for stock ETFs, facilitating low-cost investment in quality core A-share assets [1]

据CCTV国际时讯援引路透社报道，一名伊朗高级官员向路透社证实，伊朗已接受卡塔尔参与调解、美国提出的与以色列停火方案。就在早些时 候，美国总统特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗将分阶段全面停火。这个消息一出，在全球市场或将激起千层浪，对A股也势必产生深远影响。 2、避险资产也将面临回调压力。黄金、军工等冲突受益板块此前因市场恐慌情绪被推高，随着局势缓和，获利资金或加速离场。投资者需警惕前 期涨幅过高的避险个股出现技术性回调风险； 简单说，如果伊以真的停火，短期或有以下影响： 1、中东作为全球能源核心枢纽，其局势变化直接牵动大宗商品市场与全球供应链神经。若伊以停火落地，最直接的影响将体现在能源领域。霍尔 木兹海峡封锁风险大幅降低，国际油价短期暴涨预期随之消退。对A股而言，航空、交运等成本敏感型行业将率先受益，尤其是燃油成本下降直 接转化为企业利润，有望推动相关板块估值修复； 3、从更宏观的视角看，全球供应链有望迎来修复。此前因地缘冲突引发的运输中断、成本攀升等问题，将逐步得到缓解，A 股出口导向型企业的 经营压力随之减轻。同时，北向资金因避险情绪产生的大幅波动也将趋于平稳，为市场注入稳定性。 据中国基金报消息，美联储理事克 ...