Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the legal dispute between SoftBank and Credit Suisse regarding the bankruptcy of Greensill Capital, highlighting the financial losses incurred by both parties and the implications for the investment landscape [4][18][25]. Group 1: Background of the Dispute - Greensill Capital, founded in 2011, specialized in supply chain finance, providing short-term loans to small and medium-sized enterprises [8]. - SoftBank invested approximately $1.5 billion in Greensill Capital between 2019 and 2020, becoming a major shareholder [9]. - The company faced difficulties during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to its bankruptcy in 2021, which resulted in significant losses for both SoftBank and Credit Suisse [11][12]. Group 2: Legal Proceedings - Credit Suisse is suing SoftBank for $440 million, claiming it is owed due to Greensill Capital's lending to Katerra, a construction technology company that also went bankrupt [18][19]. - The lawsuit centers around the assertion that SoftBank's actions to protect its investments led to the loss of funds that should have been returned to Credit Suisse [21][22]. - The court proceedings have revealed conflicting narratives, with SoftBank denying responsibility and attributing the losses to Credit Suisse's mismanagement [22][23]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The article emphasizes the trend of high-profile unicorns facing bankruptcy, leading to significant financial repercussions for their investors, including SoftBank and Temasek [25][27]. - It highlights the common characteristics of these failed companies, such as high valuations and rapid financing, which ultimately resulted in unsustainable business models [28][30]. - The current investment climate is marked by increased caution among investors, reflecting a shift towards more prudent and sustainable investment strategies [30][32].

Core Insights - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research methodology emphasizes a structured framework to identify companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation [1] - Valuation practices are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, prioritizing comparability and simplicity [1] Research Focus - Moretus Research targets underappreciated companies that are undergoing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - The research combines rigorous fundamental analysis with a judgment-driven process, avoiding noise and overly complex forecasting [1] - The firm aims to elevate the standards of independent investment research by providing actionable insights and a strong filter for relevant information in equity analysis [1]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 吕执着 来源：雪球 为什么我会提出这个概念 ， 因为2025 ， 有了一些新变化 ， 对比以往的医药行业 ， 估值的重 估 ， 开始一步步的被证实了 。 一 、 以前为啥不值钱 ？ —— 机构 " 不见兔子不撒鹰 " 只看结果 ， 不看潜力 ： 以前投资机构只认 " 快卖钱的药 " （ 比如III期临床或上市阶段 ） ， 觉得临床前或早期管线 （ I/II期 ） 风险太高 ， 10个项目可能9个失败 ， 算不过来账 。 打个比方 ： 就像种树 ， 种子刚发芽时没人出价 ， 等结果子了才有人买 。 不会算 " 未来的钱 " ： 传统估值模型 （ 比如PE市盈率 ） 只看当前利润 ， 但创新药企早期都在烧钱搞研发 ， 没利润 可看 ， 机构干脆忽略早期管线价值 。 二 、 2025年为啥突然值钱了 ？ —— 海外大佬来 " 抢货 " 大药企 " 囤货式采购 " ： 2025年起 ， 辉瑞 、 默沙东等国际巨头疯狂抢购中国创新药管线 ， 尤其是早期项目 。 比如 ： 三生制药的PD-1/VEGF双抗 （ 刚进I期临床 ） ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3455 points, marking a new high for the year, while the ChiNext Index surged over 3% [1] - Over 3800 stocks closed in the green, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [5] Financial Sector - The financial sector saw a collective surge, particularly in brokerage stocks such as Guosheng Financial Holdings, Tianfeng Securities, and Xiangcai Securities, which hit the daily limit [3] - The rise is attributed to increasing expectations for policy easing and the relatively low valuations of brokerage firms, with potential catalysts from ongoing capital market reforms like the deepening of the registration system and the expansion of the Beijing Stock Exchange [3] - Caution is advised for short-term trading, while long-term investors should focus on leading firms with strong investment banking capabilities and wealth management advantages [3] Military Industry - The military sector remained active, with stocks like Guorui Technology and Beifang Changlong hitting the daily limit [3] - The sector benefits from strong performance and policy support, with many military enterprises reporting full order books, particularly in aerospace and missile equipment [3] - Long-term investments should focus on leading companies with core technologies and stable orders, avoiding short-term speculative trades [3] Software Development - The software development sector was also lively, with stocks like Guiding Compass reaching the daily limit [4] - This sector is linked to the financial industry, driven by the demand for financial IT and data security as part of digital transformation [4] - Companies that effectively combine technology with practical applications are seen as having significant future potential, but investors should prioritize firms with tangible projects and cash flow [4] Other Sectors - The oil and gas, pharmaceutical, and shipping sectors faced declines, with stocks like Zhun Oil Shares hitting the daily limit down [4] - The oil and gas sector is affected by recent volatility in international oil prices, while the pharmaceutical sector is still adjusting to the impacts of centralized procurement [4] - The shipping sector is experiencing a withdrawal of funds due to expectations around freight rates and seasonal demand [4] Investment Strategy - The market's upward movement suggests a search for undervalued and high-growth sectors, particularly in financials and military industries [5] - Long-term investors are encouraged to remain calm and avoid chasing short-term speculative stocks, focusing instead on sectors with clear policy benefits and strong mid-year performance forecasts, such as semiconductor equipment, energy storage, and high-end liquor [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank's assessment indicates that the Swedish Krona is still undervalued and is expected to appreciate further in the future [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Central Bank Assessment** - The Swedish central bank, led by Governor Teden, believes that the Swedish Krona remains undervalued [1] - There is an expectation for further appreciation of the currency in the future [1]

证券研究报告：银行业|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 4479.03 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4479.03 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3132.76 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 银行 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:张银新 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040001 Email:zhangyinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 l 风险提示： 数据统计误差，外部事件超预期恶化，银行不良资产大面积暴露。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 《银行资负观察第二期：存款降息对 大行负债影响几何？》 - 2025.05.30 金融可转债研究：金融转债梳理推荐 l 投资要点 板块供需矛盾仍突出：截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，转债市场目前存 续个券约 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/25 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/1 8 801 2700 2615 2500 2650 2455 2598 290 332 179 175 -1437 2025/06/1 9 801 2765 2680 2515 2700 2455 2605 302 341 143 185 -1455 2025/06/2 0 801 2750 2665 2525 2700 2480 2600 296 346 195 210 -1445 2025/06/2 3 801 2735 2643 2543 2700 2480 2633 295 346 171 210 -1350 2025/06/2 4 801 2635 2510 2510 2600 2480 2615 295 346 171 240 -1163 日度变化 0 -100 -133 -33 -100 0 -18 0 0 0 30 187 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that China's economy is maintaining stable growth despite complex challenges, with a long-term positive outlook remaining unchanged [1] - Consumption and technology are identified as the two main supports for the economic fundamentals, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5% year-on-year from January to May, showing acceleration compared to the first quarter [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector is experiencing strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in May, indicating a transition from a "manufacturing giant" to a "strong manufacturing nation" [4] Group 2 - China is projected to contribute approximately one-quarter of global economic growth by 2025, highlighting its role as a significant engine for the world economy [6] - The Chinese government's macroeconomic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are beneficial for the global economy, suggesting the need for more fiscal stimulus measures to counter external shocks [6] - The recent China-U.S. trade talks are expected to boost market risk appetite, potentially leading to a positive outlook for A-share listed companies in the second quarter [8]

一路 "狂飙" 的增长之路 信用债 ETF 能在短时间内取得如此惊人的成绩，背后离不开一系列关键时间节点的推动和政策的大力支持。今年 1 月，证监会印发的《促进资本市场指 数化投资高质量发展行动方案》犹如一颗信号弹，提出 "稳步拓展债券 ETF"，并部署 "稳妥推出基准做市信用债 ETF""研究将信用债 ETF 纳入债券通用 回购质押库" 等重要举措 。政策东风一吹，市场迅速响应。1 月 7 日，首批 8 只信用债 ETF 同日火热发售，1 月 16 日结束募集，1 月 27 日全部敲定上市 时间，在上交所与深交所相继上市交易，整个过程一气呵成，跑出了资本市场的 "加速度"，募集总规模达 218 亿元，为后续的规模增长奠定了坚实基 础。 3 月 21 日晚间，中国证券登记结算公司又连续发文出台三项举措，允许信用债 ETF 试点开展交易所质押式回购、拓宽受信用保护债券回购范围、暂免部 分债券登记结算费用 。其中，允许符合一定条件的信用债 ETF 产品试点开展交易所债券通用质押式回购业务，这一举措满足了市场对信用债 ETF 入库开 展回购交易的需要，大大提高了信用债 ETF 产品的流动性、吸引力和交易活跃度，推动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with a cumulative increase of 14.11% as of June 23, 2025, ranking first among 31 industries, driven by high dividend strategies and stable absolute returns amid global macro uncertainties [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - The banking sector features high dividend yields and low valuations, attracting long-term capital inflows [2] - Insurance capital continues to favor high-dividend equity assets, with bank valuations between 0.6-0.7 times, providing a cost-effective investment option [2] - Southbound funds have been actively buying Hong Kong and H-shares of banks, particularly state-owned banks, which have seen a significant increase in their market share [2] - Public funds are expected to increase their allocation to banks, with current allocation weights significantly lower than the sector's representation in the market [3] Group 2: Banking Fundamentals - The banking sector is expected to maintain a bottoming trend, with credit growth around 7%-8% and a gradual slowdown in the trend of deposit regularization [4] - The optimization of liability costs is expected to mitigate the impact of LPR cuts, leading to a narrowing of interest margin declines [4] - Non-interest income is showing marginal improvement, although other non-interest income sources are under pressure [4] - Asset quality remains stable, supported by ongoing government support for the real economy, although retail loan quality may face marginal deterioration [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The trading congestion indicators for banks have not reached previous highs, indicating room for further growth [5] - The trading volume and turnover rate of state-owned banks are significantly lower than previous market peaks, while city commercial banks are seeing increased activity [5] - Agricultural commercial banks have experienced a notable increase in trading activity, benefiting from recent market trends and index inclusions [5] Group 4: ETF Performance - The banking ETF (515020) has a dividend yield of 5.19%, a PE ratio of 7.21, and a PB ratio of 0.72 as of June 23, 2025 [6] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190) has a dividend yield of 8.18%, a PE ratio of 6.48, and a PB ratio of 0.58 [6] - The Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159547) has a dividend yield of 5.29%, a PE ratio of 8.25, and a PB ratio of 0.84, with banks comprising 49.2% of the index [6]