Economic Overview - Japan's real GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year in Q1, marking the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 2024, attributed to high prices and uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of GDP, grew only 0.04% quarter-on-quarter, indicating weak demand across various food and high-priced goods [1] - Exports fell by 0.6% in Q1, the first negative growth in four quarters, while imports increased by 2.9%, driven by aircraft imports and rising advertising service costs [1] Consumer Behavior - High food prices, particularly rice, are significantly impacting real wages and consumer spending, with rice prices remaining close to double the level of the previous year despite government interventions [2] - The ongoing debate within Japan regarding the potential increase of U.S. rice imports as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations highlights the tension between economic strategy and food security concerns [2] Trade Negotiations - Japan's trade representatives are closely monitoring the risks of economic recession due to U.S. trade policies, with rising prices potentially affecting consumer confidence and overall economic performance [3] - The upcoming third round of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations is critical, especially after previous rounds ended in stalemate, with Japan's insistence on zero tariffs being challenged by the current political landscape [4] Future Economic Outlook - Economic experts predict that the decline in Japan's economic data is just the beginning, with new U.S. tariffs expected to further impact consumer and business confidence [5] - Major Japanese automakers like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are forecasting significant financial losses due to U.S. tariffs, which may lead to reduced consumer activity and cautious corporate investment moving forward [5]

Group 1 - Major commercial banks have lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates generally falling below 1% [1] - Smaller banks, such as city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, have also followed suit, with one to five-year fixed deposit rates now commonly in the "1" range, diminishing their competitive advantage [1] - Customers are shifting their funds from deposits to wealth management products, money market funds, bond funds, and insurance products to seek higher returns [1] Group 2 - The issuance rates of interbank certificates of deposit have recently increased, indicating a short-term rise in funding costs for banks [2] - The overall pressure on bank liabilities is attributed to declining deposit stability and increased reliance on active liabilities, compounded by the inability of loose monetary policy to fully offset funding demand [2] - Analysts predict that the long-term downward trend in deposit rates will continue, necessitating banks to enhance their active liability capabilities and manage high-cost deposits [2][3] Group 3 - Several listed banks are focusing on controlling liability costs, with strategies including optimizing deposit management and expanding demand for current deposits [3] - Banks are also planning to issue bonds and interbank certificates of deposit strategically when market interest rates are low to manage refinancing pressures [3] - The supply pressure of interbank certificates of deposit may not be sustainable in the medium to long term due to a lack of willingness among banks to actively expand their liability scale [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the journey of a trader who initially experienced success but faced significant losses due to a lack of understanding of risk management and emotional control in trading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trading Experience - The trader won a domestic derivatives competition but lacked knowledge in risk control and technical analysis, attributing early success to luck [1]. - After borrowing 300,000 and investing in the Taiwan stock index, the trader lost 150,000 due to a gambling mentality, realizing the difficulty of executing the strategy of holding profitable trades and cutting losses [2]. - Subsequent attempts to apply technical analysis led to further losses, highlighting the limitations and lagging nature of many technical indicators [3][6]. Group 2: Learning and Adaptation - The trader began to study various trading strategies and technical analysis methods, seeking to improve performance after experiencing significant losses [2][5]. - A pivotal moment occurred when the trader recognized the importance of directly observing price movements rather than solely relying on technical indicators [4]. - The introduction of algorithmic trading was attempted, but it resulted in even greater losses, emphasizing the challenges of automated trading systems [6]. Group 3: Key Trading Principles - The trader eventually identified that support, resistance, and trend lines are fundamental to successful trading, allowing for a more stable trading approach [7]. - Using support lines to gauge price trends proved to be a reliable method, particularly during trend reversals [8]. - The article emphasizes that trading in the direction of established trends can enhance profit potential and speed up the realization of gains [9][10].

Market Trends - The stock index has experienced a continuous decline for 11 trading days, with trading volume returning to around 1 trillion [1] - The Sci-Tech 50 Index has dropped for 16 consecutive trading days from its recent high, accumulating a significant decline despite daily losses appearing small [1] - The semiconductor sector currently lacks a clear upward trend, contributing to an overall downward movement that may affect other indices [1] Volume and Market Conditions - Current trading volume at around 1 trillion is insufficient to drive an effective market reversal [1] - For a short-term market rebound, two conditions must be met: trading volume needs to exceed 1.3 trillion, and both heavyweight and technology stocks must rise together, demonstrating clear profitability [1] - Even if the market shows signs of recovery, there will still be significant resistance in future market phases, suggesting a cautious outlook [1] Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, the sustainability of sectors is low, increasing operational difficulty [2] - Investors who have not yet entered the market are advised to remain patient and wait for clearer market trends before making decisions [2] - For active investors, a strategy focusing on individual stocks rather than indices is recommended, with an emphasis on stock selection and timing [2]

Group 1 - The article promotes a free futures trading practical course, emphasizing the importance of understanding support and resistance levels and identifying effective breakouts [1] - The course offers a system for building trading strategies and includes one-on-one guidance from instructors, limited to the first 50 participants [1] - The initiative aims to attract new traders by providing valuable educational resources at no cost [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in April showed signs of insufficient recovery, with a notable divergence between the performance of second-hand and new homes, indicating a potential stabilization in first and second-tier cities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In April, new home sales weakened both year-on-year and month-on-month, with the transaction area of commercial housing declining by 2.9% year-on-year, a drop of 1.4 percentage points compared to March, and a month-on-month decline exceeding 40% [3]. - The average sales price of new homes fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with a decline of 3.5 percentage points compared to March [3]. - In contrast, the second-hand housing market showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in transaction area across 18 sample cities, despite a month-on-month decrease of 7.3% [3]. Group 2: City-Level Analysis - Among 30 major cities, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased by 12.1% year-on-year in April, with first-tier cities demonstrating resilience due to the support of quality housing supply, leading to a recovery in sales growth to over 20% year-on-year in May (up to the 25th) [3]. - Second-tier and lower-tier cities continue to face pressure, with no improvement in year-on-year growth rates for new home transactions [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rental yield in April reached 2.3%, with the spread over the 30-year treasury yield increasing to 42 basis points since the beginning of the year, indicating potential for long-term stability in the real estate market when rental yields exceed 2.5% [3]. - The proportion of second-hand home transactions increased to 59.0% in the first four months of the year, up 6.7 percentage points from the entire year of 2024, suggesting a shift from a growth phase to a maturity phase in the market [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Future Outlook - Narrow inventory remains high, but broad inventory has returned to 2010 levels, with de-stocking pressure mainly on existing homes [4]. - The implementation of new housing regulations and adjustments in land acquisition strategies by real estate companies may alleviate the pressure between new supply and existing home inventory [4]. - Cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen in the first tier, and Chengdu, Hohhot, and Nanchang in the second tier, are seen as having conditions favorable for early stabilization in their real estate markets [4].

日前，有消息称比亚迪山东经销商集团济南乾城汽车贸易有限公司暴雷，其在4月17日发布的《关于处 理三保服务事宜的解决方案》的公告中解释道："近两年由于比亚迪经销商政策调整，对我司的现金流 管理带来巨大压力。加之山东地区多个汽车经销商行业暴雷，当地银行融资政策保守，造成我司融资更 加困难等系列影响，导致我司门店运营资金面临巨大挑战，不能及时向车友朋友处理退还三保费用问 题，给您们带来了不便和损失，在此我们深表歉意。" 该公司表示会积极想办法按照双方签署的合同履行相应的服务内容和退款义务，争取在2025年5月底前 解决完问题。 5月28日，比亚迪集团品牌及公关处相关人士就此事回应称："网传信息不属实！过去几年，我们对经销 商的政策连续且稳定。据了解，该经销商集团由于盲目极速扩张并加杠杆运营，导致资金链出现问题。 去年底以来，该经销商集团的部分4S店，已被当地其他经销商收购。我们对该经销商集团也在进行纾 困支持，协助该经销商集团妥善处理其客户及员工的相关问题。" 实际上，近年来随着汽车行业竞争持续加剧，"价格战"不断升级，汽车经销商也面临较大生存压力。 根据中国汽车流通协会发布的《中国汽车流通行业发展报告（2024 ...

卫哲 嘉御基金董事长 创业黑马导师 在如今人人喊着生意难做的情况下， 黑马导师卫哲 投出的 沪上阿姨 （02589.HK）， 5月8日在港交所主板上市，发行价113.12港 元/股，开盘价190.6港元/股，较发行价上涨68.5%。 首先，高目标怎么来的？我们第一步叫"市值到财务"。 另一家火锅烧烤食材超市品牌 锅圈食汇 ，在2020—2023的三年时间里，门店数从3000多家增长至 10000家 。成立仅6年时间，就 在港交所上市。 以下是卫哲的独家分享： 如何实现从百店到千店，尤其是如何实现千店到万店呢？ 我们的独门方法论，叫 拒绝小而美，走向"高大上"。 什么是"高大上"？高目标、大愿望、上速度。 什么叫"市值到财务"？ 如果你的理想净利润率是5%—6%。那我们反推一下，30亿营业额，5%的利润，等于你的营业额乘以20倍。 所以锅圈食汇当年要做到一千亿市值的话，市值到财务的第一步是什么？600亿销售额，30亿利润，这样一千亿市值肯定有了。打造百 亿市值的方法也是这个计算逻辑。 第二步是什么？叫"财务到业务"。 这个600亿销售额和30亿利润怎么来的？600亿是六万个店，每个店全年做100万。或者倒过来， ...

Key Points - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,358 per ounce, a 4.9% increase, and domestic AU9999 gold at 776 yuan per gram, up 4.0% week-on-week [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion due to fluctuating US-EU tariff negotiations and geopolitical risks, allowing gold to regain the $3,300 level [1] - The recent tariff easing has led to a correction in the previously overheated gold market, with gold experiencing a maximum pullback of 8-10% from its peak of $3,500 [1] Group 1 - The easing of tariff tensions has been largely priced into gold, suggesting that the market has adjusted to the recent developments [1] - The ongoing inflationary pressures in the US economy, exacerbated by previous tariff disputes, may continue to challenge economic stability despite tariff reductions [2] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, despite delays, are expected to benefit gold as the market expects three rate cuts within the year [2] Group 2 - The weakening of US dollar credibility due to rising debt levels and high interest costs on government debt is driving central banks to increase gold purchases [2] - Global demand for gold ETFs has surged, with Q1 2025 demand nearly matching the record $111 billion set in Q4 2024, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase [2] - The demand for gold bars and coins remains robust, reaching 325 tons, which is 15% higher than the five-year quarterly average, with China being a key growth driver in this segment [2] Group 3 - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs in the upcoming week include US Q1 GDP and April PCE data, as well as any changes in tariff policies [3]

周二(5月27日)本交易日国际黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3342.46美元/盎司，最高触及3350.03美元/盎司，最低触及3324.34美元/盎司，截止当前金价 报3325.49美元/盎司，涨幅-0.50%。黄金ETF基金（159937）盘中涨幅-0.31%，换手率1.54%，成交金额4.41亿。（数据来源：Wind） 北京首创期货指出，近期鲍威尔提出调整美联储政策框架理论上对金价有一定利空，但今年美联储对金价的影响力并不大。特朗普大而美法案通过，短期而 言，减缓了市场对经济的担忧，利空金价，但长期而言，美国杠杆率将进一步上升，长线视角利多金价。国际货币制度的松动，央行增持黄金，全球地缘局 势复杂，全球经济下行压力增加，是推动金价长期上行的主要因素。从基本面角度看，中长期变量没有发生根本性改变，从技术面角度看，黄金的中长期涨 势也没有任何改变。短期行情进入高位整理，回踩60日均线后仍是做多机会。 黄金ETF基金（159937）通过投资上海黄金交易所AU9999现货合约，实现与国内金价的高度拟合，具有低门槛、低成本和交易形式多样化等特点，支持T+0 交易。长期来看，黄金中枢随信用货币规模而稳定抬升，以及 ...