Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has lowered its policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0% as part of a series of rate cuts initiated in March 2024, reflecting high uncertainty in the global economic outlook and anticipated economic slowdown [1][2] - The SNB projects inflation rates of 0.5% for 2026 and 0.7% for 2027, both lower than previous expectations, while GDP growth is forecasted to be between 1% and 1.5% in 2025 [1] - The Swiss franc has appreciated approximately 9% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025, prompting the SNB to adopt a loose monetary policy to mitigate the impact of currency appreciation on export competitiveness and domestic prices [1][3] Group 2 - The shift from tightening to easing monetary policy is observed globally, with significant divergence in inflation expectations and economic recovery among major economies, influencing their respective monetary policies [2] - Central banks may prefer quantitative easing (QE) or fiscal-monetary coordination over simple rate cuts, with zero or negative interest rates being utilized under specific conditions such as deflation or excessive currency appreciation [2] - The SNB's rate cuts may increase global market liquidity, potentially pressuring other countries to adjust their interest rates to maintain capital stability [3] Group 3 - Long-term low interest rates could lead to significant capital inflows into real estate and stock markets, risking asset price bubbles that may destabilize financial markets if they burst [4] - Lower interest rates may compress financial institutions' profit margins, affecting their profitability and potentially impacting the stability of the financial system [4] - The SNB's efforts to alleviate the appreciation of the Swiss franc through rate cuts could lead to volatility in global currency markets if other economies adopt similar measures [4]

2025 年 6 月 20 日 无序产能清退期，成本曲线的失真与团雾 ---2025 年碳酸锂期货半年度行情展望 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 报告导读： 研 究 我们的观点：2025 年下半年，我们预计碳酸锂价格依然以偏弱震荡格局为主，价格运行区间预计为 5 万元/吨-6.5 万元/吨。 所 我们的逻辑：锂盐供应逆势增长，需求受贸易摩擦影响下修，锂盐过剩之况愈发严峻。2025 年锂盐供需过剩 29.9 万吨，产量 预计达 178.3 万吨，需求预计 148.4 万吨，供应增速 34%远超需求增速 21%。2025 下半年过剩幅度略低于上半年，三季度过剩 体量环比预计进一步放大，从 7 月持续过剩至 10 月。四季度与历年同期的缺口市场有所不同，历年 11-12 月为年末新能源车 和储能冲量时刻，而 2025 年 11-12 月预计将较去年同期增量表现更为疲弱和低迷。 中国自有+权益资源的自主化突破，海外矿商溢价能力减弱。2025 年中国锂供应实现关键跨越，通过自有资源深耕+海外权益 布局，已基本实现 76.0 万吨的供应规模，占全球供应量的 42.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing interest of international investors in RMB assets amid global capital market volatility and the need for portfolio rebalancing [1][2]. Group 1: Global Capital Market Dynamics - The global capital market has experienced significant volatility this year, particularly affecting the status of USD assets as a "safe haven" [1]. - International investors are actively seeking to rebalance their investment portfolios in response to these market changes [1]. Group 2: China's Economic Potential - Several foreign financial institutions highlighted the unique advantages of Chinese assets in global fund diversification during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [1]. - Howard Marks noted that despite global market fluctuations, China's economy exhibits structural advantages, summarized as "1234" characteristics [3][4]. - The "1" represents a single goal of transitioning to high-quality growth, which requires two transformations: green and digital [3]. - The "3" refers to the coordinated efforts of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and structural reform policy to guide the economy [4]. - The "4" highlights four fundamental advantages of China: a highly educated workforce, a large middle-class market, excellent infrastructure, and a comprehensive supply chain [4]. Group 3: Financial Market Internationalization - Howard Marks proposed two key suggestions for enhancing the internationalization of China's financial market: deepening the opening of investment asset categories to foreign investors and optimizing the foreign product access mechanism [6][7]. - Gokul Laroia emphasized the importance of collaboration between Shanghai and Hong Kong to attract significant capital flows, noting that even a small outflow from the US could represent a substantial amount [4][5]. - David Perez de Albeniz mentioned that 70% of the 1,500 fund companies they collaborate with are interested in the Chinese market, indicating a strong demand for investment opportunities in China [4]. Group 4: Recommendations for Attracting Foreign Investment - High Laroia highlighted the necessity of creating a conducive environment for RMB internationalization, suggesting that both Shanghai and Hong Kong play crucial roles in this process [7]. - The establishment of a globally adaptable credit rating system and a liquid secondary market are essential for attracting patient capital and facilitating foreign investment in China [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-20 淡季铁⽔回升，市场延续窄幅波动 美联储议息会议基本符合预期，伊以冲突乱局持续，不过海外宏观对 黑色板块驱动暂有限。产业方面热卷需求回暖，螺纹季节性下行。 供应端铁水高位回升，整体供需均环比走强，库存暂无压力。不过市 场对后市预期依然偏悲观，担忧板材需求走弱，此外出口韧性有待观 察。整体而言，驱动有限。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。上周到港下降导 致库存微幅下降。钢企补库导致疏港增加，港口库存小幅下降，随着 海外发运季节性增加，矿石存有阶段性小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有 限，整体供需矛盾不突出，维持矿价震荡运行的判断。 2、碳元素方面，近期受库存压力及环保检查等因素影响而停产的煤 矿数量有所增加，焦煤产量有所下滑，但目前市场整体供应并不紧 张，关注后市供应端的收缩幅度。需求端，焦炭产量水平高位下滑， 焦企在去库及亏损压力下、产量存在进一步下降预期。库存端，提降 周期内焦企原 ...

今年以来，AI大模型发展风云激荡，智媒融合方式不断推陈出新。新的传播生态下，内容、技术、效 果、人才等多个维度都在发生剧变。对于其带来的机遇和挑战，我们又该如何应对，顺势而为？带着这 些问题，本期首席访谈，我们专访了深圳大学传播学院特聘教授辜晓进。 其一，叙事的去功利化。这既意味着要让内容相对客观，同时也要尽量克制超出"故事"本身的"讲好"力 度。比如动画电影《哪吒2》登顶全球动画电影票房榜冠军，其中的关键因素，就是电影制作方充分挖 掘了哪吒，作为中国传统文化经典形象的故事与内涵，因而取得了很好的对外传播效果。 其二，叙事的"换位"意识。传播不是一件单向输出的事情，"讲好中国故事"也需要始终保持他者视角的 在场。这需要在选题策划之初，就要立足尊重、重视人类的共同兴趣，而不是只讲"我"想讲好的"中国 故事"。 其三，叙事的平民视角。这一点上，李子柒就是个很好的例子。她以普通人的视角，去呈现一种普通人 的生活状态。既有个人情感的朴素表达，也有生活细节的点睛刻画，事实证明，这样的传播，也会更有 利于增强受众的共鸣。 在城市层面，"讲好中国故事"还需要用好独特的城市标签。像成都拥有的"大熊猫""川菜"等IP，以及连 ...

22款L9是按极致舒适取向调教的，有媒体反馈希望更运动，悬架团队当时认为增强运动性会牺牲舒适性。由于L9大卖，理想方当时认为不用改进。 以下文章来源于硬哥说 ，作者硬哥 硬哥说 . @硬哥 本人，为粉丝答疑解惑，分享产品体验、发布专业评测、传播使用技巧…… 省流版: 23年，L789用户增多，真实车主吐槽空悬太软的声音越来越多，理想决定通过调整CDC算法，让车运动性更强。原计划只提供更运动的3种模式，由于 老用户呼声太强烈。决定舒适魔毯3种模式，运动魔毯3种模式。 理想认为本质是不同用户对颠和晃的接受度不同，由于物理硬件限制，二者很难兼顾。 24款L9上双腔空悬核心思路是让运动魔毯更运动，舒适魔毯收益不高，未解决颠和晃兼顾问题。 硬哥认为双腔空悬原理和调节都不复杂，CDC连续可变阻尼减震器原理不复杂，调控策略非常复杂，尤其是双阀CDC。 25款L9上双阀，让所有底盘模式明显改善，大幅缓解颠晃不可兼得问题。双阀牺牲了极致舒适性后，李想倾向不要双阀，团队经过综合评估，认为对L9 而言上双阀利大于弊，对MEGA弊大于利。 补充说明： 同一车型空簧较 螺簧，一般会导致NVH与舒适性会略好，运动性略差。最大特点是通过充 ...

报告导读： 货 研 究 我们的观点：基于锌元素过剩格局，2025 年下半年锌价或前高后低。预估沪锌主要运行区间为 20000-23000 元/吨，伦锌主 要运行区间为 2400-2700 美元/吨。 所 我们的逻辑：供应侧矛盾将继续主导价格。随着利润修复驱动高成本矿山重启、新扩建矿山兑现增量，锌矿的宽松将持续传 导至冶炼放量，锌锭供应压力逐步体现，价格高位回落。锌合金一体化、冶炼厂直发增加以及下游经历补库使得显性库存水 位较低，或限制价格回落的流畅度，亦可关注传统消费旺季期间的跨期正套以及内外反套。 2025 年 6 月 19 日 过剩渐显下价格承压，低库存提供结构策略 ---2025 年锌期货半年度行情展望 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 投资展望：单边以逢高空思路为主，或买入看跌期权；跨期正套；内外层面，就目前预估国内供应压力于淡季体现，从而带 来内外正套机会，比值的波动上，可以打开国内锌矿进口窗口的思路为主进行旺季阶段的内外反套。 风险点：矿端增量不及预期，低显性库存存在流动性风险，关注海内外宏观政策等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务 ...

本文由霍尼韦尔中国总裁余锋《15分钟领导力》所作推荐序： 我有幸受邀为高德威先生的新书《15分钟领导力》作序，这让我回想起2017年刚加入霍尼韦尔的时光。彼时，高德威先生已在霍尼韦尔工作了15年，即将 卸任执行董事长一职。虽然我们初次见面的时间并不长，但他的领导风格与管理理念却让我印象深刻，许多细节至今历历在目。 高德威先生在本书中对成长型领导亦有着墨。成为卓越的领导是一段终身旅程，途中离不开持续学习和独立思考。作为领导者，他始终坚持长期主义，带 领霍尼韦尔从困境中崛起，成为全球高科技标杆企业之一；作为学习者，他定期通过"蓝皮本凝思时刻"广泛涉猎不同领域的知识，追求与时俱进，以专业 和创造性方式进行思考；作为导师，他乐于分享个人的经验与智慧，为团队提供重要指导。这些宝贵的经验从书中展现出来，激励着我在工作中秉持 "教 学相长"的理念，持续学习并将所学传递给团队成员，帮助他们共同成长。 高德威先生的管理理念为霍尼韦尔的持续增长奠定了基础，建立了其作为全球"本土化"商业模式先驱的深厚传统。在我们第一次见面时，他便强调他坚信 国际公司在中国市场开展业务所带来的机遇和价值。霍尼韦尔在中国所取得的成功正是这一信念的有力 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 热点品种 商品 力 涨 幅与增仓 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加 拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协 议谈判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和 伊朗近期已经将袭击目标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色 列和伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅 度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端，美国非农数据、 CPI 数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balance in health and nutrition, presenting ManJu's unique oil products as a solution for achieving this balance through scientifically formulated ingredients and innovative production methods [1][3]. Group 1: Product Features - ManJu's oil features a precise balance of Omega 3/6/9 in a golden ratio of 2:1:1, catering to the body's nutritional needs [3]. - The oil contains Super Omega 9 from the oil of the Camellia oleifera, which aids in repairing damaged brain nerve pathways and promotes nerve cell regeneration, with each 5ml serving providing approximately 45mg of this beneficial compound [3]. - Additional components like lignans and phytosterols help regulate hormone balance and provide antioxidant benefits, along with Vitamin E for skin health [3]. Group 2: Nutritional Preservation Technology - ManJu employs three preservation technologies to maintain nutritional integrity: 1. Low-temperature cold pressing at 40°C, preserving 99% of active ingredients, significantly higher than the industry average of 80°C [6]. 2. Nitrogen packaging technology that prevents oxidation by injecting low-temperature pure nitrogen into the bottle [6]. 3. High-precision physical filtration that avoids nutrient destruction from industrial refining processes [6][11]. Group 3: Skincare Benefits - ManJu promotes a skincare philosophy that emphasizes oil-based nourishment, addressing common skin issues such as acne and sensitivity through natural ingredients [8][9]. - The product line aims to enhance skin quality by inhibiting melanin production and improving blood circulation, resulting in a healthier complexion [10]. - The combination of antioxidants in the oil helps improve skin elasticity and reduce dullness, promoting a natural glow [10]. Group 4: Consumption Experience - The product is designed for a pleasant consumption experience, featuring small cup packaging that encourages self-discipline and enjoyment [12]. - The "health currency" concept allows users to engage in a playful and stress-relieving manner while consuming the oil, enhancing emotional well-being [13]. - ManJu's oil is positioned as a companion for modern women, promoting a healthy lifestyle through innovative consumption methods [15][16]. Group 5: Market Insights - According to a report by iResearch, urban women have evolving expectations for oils, seeking benefits beyond basic nutrition, such as anti-inflammatory and anti-aging properties [17]. - The product is marketed for various uses, including low-temperature cooking, as a nutritional companion for beverages, and as part of a beauty regimen [18].