Group 1 - The report highlights a strong breakout in A-shares, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 2.36%, and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3500 points, driven by policy support and improved manufacturing expectations [4][10] - The report notes a technical adjustment in the bond market, with 30-year and 10-year government bonds declining by 0.49% and 0.26% respectively, attributed to the risk appetite shift towards equities and tightening liquidity post-quarter-end [4][10] - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market is experiencing a high-level correction, with major indices declining under the pressure of the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate expectations, while the dollar rebounded by 0.93% this week [4][10] Group 2 - The report suggests a diversified asset allocation strategy, recommending a focus on the bond market due to supportive liquidity and optimistic sentiment, while also monitoring the scale of MLF renewals and fiscal-monetary policy coordination [5] - For overseas equities, the report advises overweighting non-U.S. markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, to capitalize on structural opportunities amid a weakening dollar and resilient fundamentals [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring commodity prices, which are rebounding due to policy stimulus and cost support, while also noting that the effectiveness of future measures needs to be tracked [4][5] Group 3 - The report identifies that the A-share market is currently in a small-cap, high-growth style cycle, with liquidity supporting a continued influx of funds into smaller stocks, despite a negative return of -8.54% for the market capitalization factor year-to-date [34] - The report highlights that the current valuation levels of A-shares are approaching historical averages, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 800 at the 50th percentile of the rolling three-year range, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market sentiment [67] - The report notes that while earnings expectations have slightly improved, they remain below historical averages, indicating ongoing concerns about the profitability of A-share listed companies, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.4% [67]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations with mixed performance across major indices, and there is potential for increased capital inflow as trading volume has decreased significantly from last week [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market showed a divergence today, with major indices exhibiting varied performance [1]. - Trading volume has shrunk to below 1.5 trillion, indicating a substantial decrease from last week's 1.7 trillion, suggesting room for increased capital entry [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Robotics stocks surged collectively, with Zhongdali gaining the daily limit [2]. - Power and grid stocks also strengthened, with Jingyuntong hitting the daily limit [2]. - Precious metals stocks were active, with Hunan Silver reaching the daily limit [2]. - Conversely, major financial stocks faced collective adjustments, with Nanhua Futures hitting the daily limit down [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing market expectations [5]. - The PBOC emphasizes financial services for the real economy, particularly in technology innovation and support for small and micro enterprises [5]. - There is a focus on improving the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and prevent fund idling [5]. Group 4: Anti-Competition Measures - The upcoming political bureau meeting will shift macroeconomic focus, with an emphasis on addressing "involution" in competition [6][7]. - The government aims to establish rules to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation, facilitating smoother economic circulation [7]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is expected to permeate various industries, with significant implications for future policy [9]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The future of anti-involution will focus on two core areas: supporting new technologies and hard tech, and eliminating outdated production capacity [10][12]. - The solar energy sector, despite facing challenges, is still expected to grow due to increasing demand [15]. - Recent price increases in polysilicon and other components within the solar industry indicate a potential recovery and valuation correction in the sector [17]. - Institutional holdings in the solar sector have decreased significantly, suggesting a potential for reallocation as market conditions improve [18].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Xingyuan Material Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xingyuan Material") has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, facing challenges of declining profit margins and net profits despite revenue growth due to intensified industry competition and price wars [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Xingyuan Material's revenue has shown growth over the past three years, with figures of 2.867 billion, 2.982 billion, and 3.506 billion from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.59% [2]. - However, the company's gross margin has decreased significantly, from 44.82% in 2022 to 28.07% in 2024, a decline of 15.21 percentage points [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 0.881 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.79%, but the gross margin fell from 36.1% to 23.6%, a decrease of 12.5 percentage points, and net profit dropped by 52% [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The lithium-ion battery separator industry is experiencing severe price competition, with average selling prices for dry, wet, and coated separators declining by 38.6%, 23.6%, and 39.2% respectively in 2024 [4]. - The industry is characterized by a "prisoner's dilemma" where companies engage in bottom-tier competition, sacrificing profits to maintain market share, exacerbated by subsidies and low financing conditions [4]. - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee has called for the regulation of low-price disorderly competition, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, which may help stabilize pricing signals [5]. Group 3: Future Plans - Xingyuan Material plans to raise 6.3 billion HKD through its IPO, with investments allocated for overseas expansion, including approximately 5.462 billion HKD for a production base in Malaysia and 0.632 billion HKD for a base in the United States [3]. - The Singapore operations and R&D center is set to receive an investment of about 0.21 billion HKD, expected to commence in early 2026 and complete by mid-2028 [3].

摘要 行业步入去产能与需求放缓的"压力测试" 随着政策引导的 " 反内卷 " 在中国锂电行业落地，碳酸锂价格应声上涨。这既是告别非理性价格 战的预期结果，也揭开了一场围绕新定价体系的复杂博弈序幕，其过程充满了动荡与不确定性。 7 月 14 日，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中大幅拉升，涨幅一度超过 6% ，突破 68,000 元 / 吨。这 一价格与六月下旬曾一度低于 59,000 元 / 吨的低点形成鲜明对比。 现货市场同样躁动。根据数据，上周（ 7 月 7 日至 11 日），电池级碳酸锂价格已在 6.3 至 6.4 万元 / 吨区间企稳，并录得 2.3% 的周环比上涨。 市场的直接触发点来自一则传闻。消息称宜春市自然资源局要求部分矿山企业提供储量核实报告的 补充材料。尽管文件并未提及停产整顿，但在供给敏感的当下，任何风吹草动都足以引发市场剧烈 波动。 然而，将此次价格反弹完全归因于短期消息是危险的。更深层次的动因，指向了 国内 新能源产业 链正在经历的一场深刻变革 ——" 反内卷 " 。这场旨在中止无序低价竞争 、 淘汰落后产能 的行 动，正从终端的汽车行业向上游传导。 一个直接的矛盾已经出现。价格上涨正在刺激供应 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The intense competition among major internet companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com in the instant retail sector is leading to unsustainable subsidy wars, which may result in resource wastage and long-term negative impacts on the industry [1][2][4] Group 1: Impact on Consumers - Consumers are experiencing a surge of attractive offers such as "0 yuan milk tea," but this has led to instances of wasted resources, with many orders going unclaimed [1] - The phenomenon of "fake demand" is emerging, where consumer impulsiveness driven by subsidies does not translate into actual consumption [1] Group 2: Impact on Delivery Workers - Delivery workers are facing increased workloads due to the surge in orders, with some reporting delivery counts as high as 80 to 100 orders in a single day, leading to potential health risks [1][2] Group 3: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses may benefit from increased traffic due to platform subsidies, but they also bear part of the subsidy costs, leading to situations where order volume increases without corresponding revenue growth [2] - The influx of orders can degrade service quality, negatively affecting consumer perception and long-term brand viability for small businesses [2] Group 4: Impact on Platforms - Platforms are under significant financial pressure due to high subsidy costs, which could lead to short-term profit declines and potential stock price impacts [2] - For instance, Morgan Stanley estimates that Alibaba's investment in related businesses has reached approximately 10 billion yuan, with further increases expected, raising questions about the sustainability of this subsidy model [2] Group 5: Broader Industry Implications - The ongoing subsidy wars are affecting the entire retail ecosystem, with competitors like Pinduoduo and Kuaishou potentially feeling the pressure to join the fray, which could lead to further industry "involution" [3] - The focus on order volume growth over value creation could undermine the long-term benefits for consumers, delivery workers, businesses, and platforms alike [3][4] Group 6: Recommendations for Sustainable Growth - To avoid a detrimental cycle of competition, platforms should prioritize technological innovation and service quality rather than relying solely on price-based strategies [3][4] - Regulatory bodies and industry associations should implement reasonable policies to mitigate the negative effects of excessive competition, ensuring consumer rights and protecting the interests of small businesses and delivery workers [3][4]

海外策略：降息预期边际企稳 投资依然是美国经济的拖累项。亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型二季度美国实际GDP年化增速预测值稳定在 2.6%，全部来自进口减少的贡献。投资活动全面转向收缩，设备投资增速跌至-0.6%，地产（-6.6%）与建筑 （-5.2%）均在加速下行。就业市场继续受到供给侧支撑。周频首次申领失业金人数回落0.6万至22.7万，仍处 季节性低位。财政政策保持扩张立场。周频财政赤字$1,311亿，高于季节性水平，趋势上亦强于历史同期。年 内降息预期稳定在2次（50bp）。 上周影响海外市场表现的因素如下：一是特朗普宣布了部分国家的对等关税税率，基本和4月类似，其余国家 关税暂缓期推迟至8月1日，市场风险偏好上升。二是美国初请失业金人数连续下降，表明美国经济仍具韧性。 在此背景下，美元反弹，人民币小幅走弱，黄金总体平稳，美债利率震荡。 美股方面，上周美股震荡，上涨0.02%。主要因联储官员对利率前景存在分歧，对关税如何影响通胀的预期不 同。我们认为美股较大可能重新进入震荡上行趋势，上行动力来自企业盈利的韧性，企业盈利强于经济表现。 但是估值偏高，关税增加未来通胀压力，估值难以提升，上行空间有限。策略上， ...

A股今日（7月14日）走势分化，沪指强势震荡，创业板指弱势下探；港股小幅走高，恒生指数涨0.26%，恒生科技指数涨0.67%。 造纸、锂矿、光伏等"反内卷"概念集体拉升，截至收盘，造纸板块方面，中顺洁柔、森林包装、宜宾纸业涨停，松炀资源涨超5%。 具体来看，沪指盘中在银行、电力等板块的带动下强势上扬，深证成指、创业板指走势疲弱。截至收盘，沪指涨0.27%报3519.65点，深证成指跌0.11%报10684.52 点，创业板指跌0.45%报2197.07点，北证50指数涨0.55%，沪深北三市合计成交14812亿元，较此前一日减少2557亿元。 场内近3200股飘红，"反内卷"概念集体爆发，锂矿、光伏板块等拉升；电力板块再度走强，豫能控股连续两日涨停，建投能源、华电辽能等涨停；银行板块持续活 跃，浦发银行、贵阳银行等涨逾2%；创新药概念午后崛起，之江生物、昂利康、康辰药业涨停，泓博医药涨超10%；人形机器人概念强势，上纬新材涨停斩获4连 板，中大力德连续两日涨停；券商、地产、保险等板块回落。 港股方面，欧科云链大涨逾46%，博安生物涨超22%，蔚来涨超10%，中国神华涨超5%。 "反内卷"概念拉升 锂矿板块方面 ...

建筑材料/玻璃玻纤 中国巨石（600176.SH） 2025Q2 业绩同环比大增，关注玻纤触底反弹与需求改善 2025 年 07 月 14 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/7/11 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 12.17 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 13.25/8.80 | | 总市值(亿元) | 487.18 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 487.18 | | 总股本(亿股) | 40.03 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 40.03 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 37.07 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 中国巨石 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q4 业绩环比大增，关注玻纤价 格反弹和成长性—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.4.2 《周期底部叠加新兴需求，玻纤龙头 具备先发优势—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.3.12 zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 张绪成（分析师） 刘天文（分析师） liutianwen@kysec.cn 证书编号 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short - term, and lay out short positions in the medium - term [1][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short - term [10][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short - term [14][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. For rebar, production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, and total inventory has slightly decreased. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have slightly declined month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: On the fundamental side, the demand - side hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply - side shipping rush is over, but arrivals are still increasing. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Short - term market sentiment has improved [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved [1][16]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost loosening. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, the cost line has moved down, factory inventory is relatively high, and the difficulty of de - stocking has increased [1][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - **Price Range**: [3110, 3150] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current trading logic has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic. The market is bullish under the background of basis repair [1][5]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Range**: [3250, 3290] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas. The market is bullish under sentiment and expectation trading [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Range**: [750, 780] [1] - **Market Situation**: Short - term participation within the range, and medium - term short - position layout [1][9] 3.3 Coke - **Price Range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term, with the market oscillating strongly [1][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Range**: [910, 935] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term [1][17] 3.5 Ferroalloys 3.5.1 Ferromanganese - **Price Range**: [5650, 5840] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][20] 3.5.2 Ferrosilicon - **Price Range**: [5365, 5555] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within the range [1][20]