投资大师格雷厄姆和诺贝尔经济学奖获得者马科维茨都曾称资产配置是投资中唯一的"免费的午餐"。 分散投资容易实现，真正的困难在于有效分散，即分散到负相关性或低相关性的不同资产上。同时，投资者还在 要求更高的确定性。 有效分散带给投资结果的意义，在市场风平浪静时，可能不那么明显。但遇到如 2025 年 4 月 7 日，全球市场 因特朗普关税政策遭遇大幅回调，包括部分理财产品也出现较大损失这样的极特殊情况时，结果的分化就产生 了。 根据招行的官方 数据，我们观察到，成立于 2023 年 9 月 1 日的招银理财招睿嘉裕日开 360 天持有期 1 号增 强型固定收益类虽然在 当天出现了小幅回撤，但仅七个交易日就迅速修复，随后净值持续创下新高。 招银理财作为聪投长期关注的宝藏团队，之前也有过多次报道。 带着对这一净值表现的好奇，我们与债券投资部总经理助理，同时也是负责智远、增鑫等多个系列产品的 刘辉 ； 以及债券投资部资深投资经理，主要负责嘉裕系列、智远系列和增鑫系列的 罗婷元 做了一次深入交流，再次 加深了我们对招银理财固收团队的认知。 截至2025年6月25日，成立于2022年11月25日的嘉裕系列代表产品嘉裕日开1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management companies are actively seeking strategies to overcome challenges posed by ongoing "asset scarcity" and volatility in the bond market, focusing on diversifying asset allocation and exploring alternative and equity assets for better returns [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by "low interest rates and high volatility," with a recent 10 basis point reduction in both 1-year and 5-year LPR rates, and a 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7% [1]. - As of the end of Q1, the allocation of wealth management products to bonds, cash, and bank deposits was 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% respectively, indicating a heavy reliance on fixed-income assets [1]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Wealth management companies are shifting towards diversified layouts, with 招银理财 focusing on enhancing fixed-income assets and equity assets through strategies like low-dividend combinations and market-neutral strategies [3]. - Alternative and equity assets are becoming focal points for the second half of the year, with a balanced allocation among stocks, bonds, and gold expected to yield opportunities due to a low inflation and ample liquidity environment [3]. Group 3: Risk Management and Product Development - Wealth management firms emphasize absolute returns over relative returns, focusing on risk control and drawdown management in equity investments [3][4]. - 招银理财 aims to develop a product system centered on absolute return goals, with its PR3 and above products exceeding 240 billion yuan [4]. - Despite challenges, wealth management companies are responding to the "long money, long investment" call by increasing investments in capital markets, including ETFs, indicating a commitment to diversification and transformation [4].

Core Viewpoint - FIFA has launched its own fashion brand named FIFA1904, marking a significant shift in its business strategy to enhance revenue and cultural influence, diverging from its traditional focus on football administration [2][12][20] Group 1: Brand Launch and Strategy - FIFA1904 is a collaboration with New York cultural platform VFiles, featuring high-end fashion items like suits and cashmere coats, rather than traditional sportswear [2][4] - The brand aims to leverage FIFA's historical significance, with a projected value of $1 billion by the 2030 World Cup [4][6] - FIFA retains approval rights over designs while receiving royalties, indicating a non-profit operational model [4][12] Group 2: Market Positioning and Future Events - The brand's flagship store will be located in New York, with additional operational centers in Los Angeles, capitalizing on upcoming major FIFA events in the U.S. [6][12] - FIFA's entry into the fashion industry is seen as a response to the need for diversified revenue streams amid saturated traditional sponsorship and broadcasting income [12][19] Group 3: Financial Context and Comparisons - FIFA's revenue target for the 2023-2026 cycle is $13 billion, significantly lower than UEFA's projected $7.64 billion for the 2023-24 season, highlighting the financial gap [7][9] - FIFA's expansion of tournaments, such as increasing the number of teams in the World Cup, is aimed at boosting revenue by 20% and generating an additional $640 million [9][12] Group 4: Challenges and Criticisms - The non-profit status of FIFA raises questions about the appropriateness of its venture into fashion, as it may conflict with its core mission of promoting football [13][16] - The target audience for FIFA1904 appears to be affluent individuals rather than football fans, which may limit its market appeal [19][20] - The competitive nature of the fashion industry poses risks for FIFA1904, as it may struggle to establish a strong foothold in a crowded market [19][20]

Core Insights - The article discusses the launch of POPOP, a jewelry brand under Pop Mart, and its initial performance in Beijing and Shanghai, highlighting consumer behavior and market positioning [1][3][20] Group 1: Store Performance and Consumer Behavior - POPOP's first store in Beijing experienced moderate foot traffic during its opening week, with no stock shortages reported, indicating sufficient inventory levels [1] - In Shanghai, the store saw long queues, with consumers willing to spend significant amounts on jewelry, reflecting strong initial interest [3][5] - The customer demographic primarily consists of couples and affluent individuals, with many purchasing items priced from hundreds to thousands of yuan [5][6] Group 2: Product Offering and Pricing Strategy - POPOP's jewelry is primarily made from S925 silver, featuring designs inspired by popular IPs like MOLLY and LABUBU, with prices ranging from 319 yuan to 2,699 yuan [14][17] - The brand employs a pricing strategy that includes high-end products as anchors to stimulate mid-range product sales, similar to its blind box strategy [16][20] - Despite higher pricing compared to similar products on platforms like Taobao, POPOP maintains a significant brand premium, with a markup of 300% to 500% [17] Group 3: Brand Positioning and Market Strategy - The launch of POPOP represents a strategic shift for Pop Mart from a toy company to an IP-driven brand, aiming for diversification beyond traditional product lines [20][21] - The brand's focus on emotional value and unique design over material cost aligns with consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [13][24] - Experts suggest that Pop Mart's approach to jewelry is distinct from traditional brands like Pandora and Swarovski, positioning itself as a cultural IP brand [21][23] Group 4: Challenges and Consumer Sentiment - Initial consumer feedback indicates concerns about product quality and supply chain management, with reports of quality issues shortly after purchase [24][25] - The brand's operational maturity is questioned, with reports of inadequate staffing and supply issues affecting customer experience [25] - Despite these challenges, consumers express a willingness to purchase for emotional value, indicating a potential for sustained interest if quality issues are addressed [24][27]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月27日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-26 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3448.45 | 10343.47 | 3946.01 | 11721.66 | 2971.78 | 989.97 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.21 | -0.48 | -0.35 | -0.37 | -0.37 | -0.56 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 6030.95 | 9800.56 | 3281.02 | 3370.38 | 5101.82 | 307.35 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{E}}}}\triangleq\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{E}}^{\mathrm{E}}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 固定收益专题研究:2025 年上半年债券行情回顾-债市先抑后扬，信用利 差收窄 固定收益周报:政府 ...

Group 1 - The total number of cross-border ETFs in the market reached 148, with a cumulative scale exceeding 560 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.07% [2] - In terms of product issuance, 10 new cross-border ETFs were established this year, with 9 investing in the Hong Kong stock market and 1 in the Singapore market, totaling an issuance of 5.189 billion yuan [2] - The best-performing ETFs this year are focused on Hong Kong pharmaceuticals, with all top 17 ETFs showing gains exceeding 40% [2][9] Group 2 - As of June 25, southbound funds have net bought 717.65 billion HKD worth of Hong Kong stocks this year, accounting for 88.83% of the projected annual net purchases for 2024 [3] - The cross-border ETF market is experiencing a surge due to the global economic environment and the initiation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, making cross-border ETFs a vital channel for capital market connectivity [5] Group 3 - The scale of Hong Kong cross-border ETFs reached 370.83 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.41%, with over 60% of the total cross-border ETF scale attributed to Hong Kong ETFs [6] - The majority of cross-border ETFs are concentrated in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and consumer goods, with 16 ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale, 11 of which are Hong Kong ETFs [6] Group 4 - The leading cross-border ETF managers have a significant market share, with the top four managing a combined scale of 286.56 billion yuan, accounting for 50.84% of the market [11] - The number of cross-border ETF managers has increased from 23 to 24, with only one new entrant, Yongying Fund, while the number of managers with over 10 billion yuan in scale has risen to 14 [11][12] Group 5 - The performance of cross-border ETFs focused on the U.S. market has been lackluster, with 17 out of 27 products showing returns of less than 5% this year [10] - In contrast, the Hong Kong ETFs have shown significant growth, with many products experiencing substantial increases in scale and performance [10][12]

Core Insights - The 27th Shanghai International Film Festival (SIFF) generated an economic benefit of 5 billion yuan over 10 days, with nearly 80% of attendees aged between 19 and 35 [6][12] - The festival showcased over 1,500 screenings from 71 countries and regions, with a record 3,900 films submitted for the Golden Goblet Award, highlighting the diversity of global cinema [6][9] Economic Impact - The festival's activities contributed approximately 49.97 billion yuan to various sectors, including transportation, accommodation, dining, tourism, and retail, with a 4.11% increase in consumer spending around cinema areas [13][14] - About 29.2% of attendees traveled specifically to Shanghai for the festival, contributing around 17.74 billion yuan to the city's tourism revenue [13] Audience Engagement - The festival attracted nearly 500,000 attendees, with one-third coming from outside Shanghai, indicating a strong interest in international cinema [10][12] - Audience satisfaction reached 86.2 points in surveys, reflecting the festival's success in creating an immersive cultural experience [12] Film Selection and Awards - The Golden Goblet Award featured 49 films from 28 countries, with 38 being world premieres, showcasing a rich variety of storytelling and cultural representation [6][9] - The best film award went to "Black, Red, Yellow" by Kyrgyz director Aktan Abdykalykov, while Chinese director Cao Baoping won the best director award for "The Untamed" [9] Cultural Integration - The festival integrated various cultural activities, including markets and exhibitions, enhancing the overall experience for attendees and promoting local arts [14][15] - Collaborations with local businesses, such as dining packages and promotional events, further enriched the festival atmosphere and encouraged community participation [15]

Core Insights - The banking wealth management industry is undergoing a paradigm shift towards diversified asset allocation and multi-asset strategies due to the challenges posed by low interest rates and high market volatility [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Environment - The current market is characterized by "low interest rates and high volatility," leading to a decline in yields across various asset classes [1] - As of May 20, the one-year and five-year LPR rates decreased by 10 basis points, while the 10-year government bond yield fluctuates between 1.6% and 1.7% [1] - The asset allocation in wealth management products is predominantly in fixed-income assets, with bonds, cash, and bank deposits accounting for 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of total investment assets, respectively [1] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Wealth management firms are shifting from single-asset strategies to diversified approaches, focusing on broad asset classes to enhance returns [2] - The emphasis is on large-scale asset allocation, with a focus on enhancing fixed-income and equity asset layouts [2] - Companies are adopting strategies such as optimizing trading strategies and actively allocating to dividend low-volatility combinations and market-neutral strategies [2][4] Group 3: Asset Class Outlook - Industry insiders are optimistic about alternative assets and equity assets for the second half of the year [3] - Balanced allocation among stocks, bonds, and gold is seen as advantageous, with expectations of continued upward movement in asset prices due to low inflation and ample liquidity [3] - The demand for gold remains significant, with a notable increase in wealth management products featuring gold themes, totaling 46 products as of June 26 [4] Group 4: Risk Management and Absolute Returns - Wealth management companies prioritize achieving absolute returns, necessitating a focus on risk control and drawdown management in equity investments [5] - Strategies such as "fixed income + options" and multi-asset approaches are critical for managing risks while pursuing returns [5][6] - The growth of equity-based wealth management products is evident, with an increase of approximately 20 billion in the first quarter, although the overall scale remains relatively small [6]

和全国机电产品出口额及占比持续增长的趋势一致，这些外贸高增长区域均受到了机电产品的强劲带 动，并且民企的表现都相当活跃。 在关税战和全球地缘政治冲突等不确定性的影响下，长三角一座经济外向型小城仍然交出了亮眼的外贸 成绩单：今年1~5月，苏州吴江区外贸进出口总值达769.7亿元，同比增长13.7%，增幅分别高于全国、 全省、全市11.2个、8.4个、7.5个百分点；其中出口增长14.2%，进口增长12.1%。5月单月，吴江区进出 口规模创40个月以来新高。 作为苏州主城区面积最大的板块，吴江位于苏州、浙江、上海两省一市的地理交界处，是长三角区域一 体化发展国家战略的中心区域，以电子信息、丝绸纺织、装备制造、光电通信为四大主导产业。 "今年整个纺织行业的压力是不小的。旺季不那么旺，也因为市场的观望情绪缩短了周期。"吴江明斯克 贸易有限公司总经理吴长明这样对第一财经表示。然而，即使面对严峻的大环境，灵活的外贸企业仍然 跑出了加速度，并在多元化的市场布局中有了意想不到的收获。受益于去年底在中东市场的耕耘，他们 今年前5个月的出口订单同比增长了150%，中东地区的订单更是数倍激增，占到了总体出口额的约 45%。 第一财 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The US dollar index fell below 97, reaching a new low since February 2022, with a daily drop of 0.72%, while non-USD currencies strengthened significantly [1][4] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a 40% chance of a US economic recession in the second half of 2025, primarily due to escalating tariffs leading to stagflation [2][6] - UBS Wealth Management's report indicates that the dollar index has dropped to a three-year low, with expectations of further weakening due to uncertainties in the US economic outlook and rising fiscal deficit concerns [5] Group 2: Non-USD Currency Dynamics - The Taiwanese dollar has appreciated significantly, with foreign speculative funds increasing, prompting Taiwan's central bank to request the exit of overseas investors engaging in speculative bets through ETFs [1][8] - Despite the strengthening of non-USD currencies, investors have reduced long positions in the Thai baht and increased short positions in the Indian rupee, while turning bearish on the Philippine peso for the first time since early March [1][9] - The trend of foreign investors using reverse ETFs to hedge against market risks while betting on the appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar has raised concerns about its impact on the export-oriented economy [8]