房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 房地产行业第 19 周周报（2025 年 5 月 6 日-2025 年 5 月 9 日） 本周新房、二手房成交面积同环比均走弱；降准降息落 地，地产相关融资支持力度有望加大 新房成交面积同环比增速均由正转负。二手房成交面积环比降幅收窄，同比增速由正转负。 新房库存面积与去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 ◼ 5 月 7 日国新办举办"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况发布会。主要包括：1） 降准 0.5pct，提供长期流动性 1 万亿。2）下调政策利率 0.1pct。预计 5 月 5 年期以上 LPR 有望同步下调 10 个基点，或从 3.6%降至 3.5%，将进一步降低购房者置业成本。3）下调 结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25pct，其中就包括 3000 亿元的保障性住房再贷款，利率将从 1.75%下调至 1.5%，我们认为，这将激励引导金融机构支持收购已建成未出售商品房用作 保障房，以加快行业库存去化；还包括抵押补充贷款（PSL）利率从目前的 2.25%降至 2%， 也有利于为市场释放更多低成本资金，提升政策性银行对市场的支持 ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-05-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1318 273 | 13 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 2 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1045 1233186 | 11 11751 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1335775 | -2299 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -197814 | 1356 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -146540 | 43116 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3106 | -237 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2380 | 115 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 13 | 14 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -41 | 3 | | | | 现货市场 | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1325 | 15 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1400 | 0 | | | 华东轻碱( ...

行 业 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 05 月 12 日 研 究 建筑材料 公积金贷款利率下调，后续增量政策值得期待 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 5 月 7 日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上宣布，降 准 0.5 个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿，并降低政策利率 0.1 个 百分点；下调个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点，5 年期以上首套房 利率由 2.85%降至 2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整。金融监管总局局长李 云泽表示，1）加快出台房地产开发、个人住房、城市更新等贷款管理办法； 2）房地产"白名单"贷款审批通过金额增至 6.7 万亿；3）一季度新增个 人住房贷款创 2022 年以来单季最大增幅；4）近期将推出八项增量政策， 加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度；北京发布《2025 年 北京市住房发展年度计划》，提出加大购买绿色建筑和多子女家庭购房贷 款支持力度；广东 2025 年计划改造老旧小区超 600 个，更新住宅电梯 2.65 万台，研究盘活农户合法住房；上海杨浦区发布人才新政，优秀"博主" 购房最高可获 200 万补贴；珠海鼓励住房 ...

房地产 房地产 2025 年 05 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 房地产 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2025 年 1-4 月百强销售金额点评： 1-4 月百强销售同比收缩，建发华发单 月销售表现靓眼—行业点评报告》 -2025.5.8 《新房成交面积同环比增长，杭州土 拍市场火热—行业周报》-2025.5.4 《政治局会议表态持续巩固房地产市 场稳定态势 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.4.27 新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，央行再度下调 LPR 25BP | ——行业周报 | | --- | 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） 杜致远（联系人） qidong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010002 huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 核心观点：新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，央行再度下调 LPR 25BP 本周我们跟踪的 68 城新 ...

行业走势图 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 房地产 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2025 年 1-4 月百强销售金额点评： 1-4 月百强销售同比收缩，建发华发单 月销售表现靓眼—行业点评报告》 -2025.5.8 房地产 房地产 2025 年 05 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《新房成交面积同环比增长，杭州土 拍市场火热—行业周报》-2025.5.4 《政治局会议表态持续巩固房地产市 场稳定态势 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.4.27 新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，央行再度下调 LPR 25BP | ——行业周报 | | --- | 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） 杜致远（联系人） qidong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010002 huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 核心观点：新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，央行再度下调 LPR 25BP 本周我们跟踪的 68 城新 ...

点击标题阅读全文 专题 VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" ， 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究成果，与各界探讨行业运 行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 房地产企业融资模式发展与创新 房地产行业过度依赖债务驱动具不可持续性，未来融资模式要平衡各方风险与收益，预售制度也亟待调整。 观点 快评|一揽子金融政策将继续巩固房地产市场回稳势头 当前货币政策通过"降成本+扩需求+稳预期"三管齐下，短期内LPR、公积金和结构性贷款利率下调，中长期则通过系列消费支持政策与市场信心修复，推 动房地产行业新发展模式转型。 行业透视｜五一假期新房认购同比微降4%，"好房子"项目热度延续 4月部分城市四代宅等新规项目入市带动短期市场热度回升，5月"好房子"助力住房消费需求释放趋势延续。 年报点评 保利发展：规模稳居行业第一，利润率持续下滑 2024年保利发展实现全口径销售金额3230.29亿元，销售额排名稳居行业第一；拿地节奏明显放缓，总土储仍然超过1亿平米。 企业月报 | 单月销售、融资处于低位，头部房企依然积极纳储（2 0 2 5年4月） 土地周报 | 成交放量热度扩散，南京九年后再现4 . 5万+单价（4 ...

Group 1 - The central viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of recent financial policies on the Shenzhen real estate market, particularly the reduction of housing loan rates, which has led to historically low property acquisition costs [1][3][55] - The policy changes have resulted in a surge of interest in the Shenzhen housing market, with a notable example being the successful launch of the Pengchen Yunzhu project, which achieved rapid sales and high revenue during the May Day holiday [8][12][55] - The project has demonstrated strong market performance, with previous launches also seeing high demand, indicating a robust recovery in the Shenzhen real estate sector [12][14][55] Group 2 - The Pengchen Yunzhu project stands out due to its unique design and high-quality amenities, which have attracted a significant number of buyers, contributing to its success in the competitive market [17][33][55] - The project features innovative space utilization and high-end finishes, setting a new standard for residential properties in Shenzhen, which has traditionally struggled with space efficiency [33][36][55] - The combination of favorable financial policies and the product advantages of Pengchen Yunzhu creates a rare investment opportunity in a core urban area, with expectations for continued demand as new phases are launched [55][56]

Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 is undergoing significant transformation, with increasing divergence between core cities and non-core areas [1] - The latest data from the central bank indicates that the average interest rate for newly issued commercial mortgages has dropped to a historical low of 3.11% [3] - Policy adjustments, such as a reduction in down payment ratios to 15%, are contributing to a market rebound, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand housing transaction volumes have surged [3] - The land market is showing signs of volatility, with average premium rates for residential land in cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai reaching 43.3% and 29% respectively [3] - Major developers are focusing on core cities, with land acquisition amounts increasing by 26.6% year-on-year, indicating a strategic shift towards high-demand areas [3] Market Dynamics - There is a notable structural opportunity in the market, with core areas in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen experiencing high transaction volumes, while peripheral areas face significant inventory pressure [4] - The central government has signaled a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with extensive renovation plans for old neighborhoods and urban villages [4] - New housing standards are being implemented to enhance quality, which will further differentiate property values between well-located homes and those in less desirable areas [5] - The market is characterized by a stark contrast, with first-tier cities seeing continuous price increases while third and fourth-tier cities face declining sales and high inventory levels [5][6] Population and Economic Trends - Population movement and industrial concentration are driving the underlying logic of market divergence, with cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou attracting young talent and new businesses [5] - The current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for first-time homebuyers in core cities, while owners of non-core assets may face increasing challenges in liquidating their properties [6]

5月9日，北京市住建委发布《2025年北京市住房发展年度计划》，明确了持续推进房地产市场回稳向 好、加大住房保障力度、有效发挥住房公积金作用等八项重点任务。其中在有效发挥住房公积金作用方 面提出，加大购买绿色建筑和多子女家庭购房贷款支持力度，做好人才住房保障服务。 以下为政策全文： 为全面贯彻中央经济工作会议精神和全国两会精神，落实市委、市政府工作部署，坚持稳中求进工作总 基调，统筹城市总体规划实施，健全多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度，完善"保障+市 场"住房供应体系，合理控制增量、优化调整存量、着力提高质量，更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需 求，促进更高水平住有所居，结合北京市实际，制定本计划。 一、发展目标 2025年供应商品住房用地240-300公顷，建设筹集保障性租赁住房5万套、竣工各类保障房8万套，加 快"好房子"建设步伐，逐步提高刚性住房需求保障水平，持续满足改善性住房需求，有效防控风险隐 患，推动房地产市场回稳向好。深入推进城市更新行动，实施500个老旧小区综合整治，老楼加装电梯 完工600部，物业管理服务水平持续提升，让居民有更多获得感、幸福感、安全感。 二、重点任务 （一）优化住房 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - The real estate market in key cities shows signs of recovery during the May Day holiday, with significant increases in new home transaction volumes in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Wuhan. However, the overall market remains characterized by differentiation [4][26]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary policies, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in interest rates, which are expected to support the real estate market and improve financing conditions for developers [4][25]. - The report anticipates that the real estate market will transition from stabilization to recovery, with a gradual improvement in the performance of listed real estate companies expected in 2025 [27]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - As of May 8, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has decreased by 1.04% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.78 percentage points [14]. - The report highlights that the average floor price for residential land in 25 cities has increased by approximately 54% year-on-year, reaching 13,003 yuan per square meter [24]. Building Materials Market Overview - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has increased by 0.41% over the past two weeks, ranking fifth from the bottom among 31 sectors [28][30]. - The report indicates that the overall profit of the cement industry is expected to be around 16 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of over 40% [48]. Cement Industry Insights - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing downward pressure on prices, with the average price dropping to 354 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.39% from the previous week [37]. - It is expected that the demand for cement will be supported by the recovery of the real estate market and the upcoming construction peak season [48]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and leading companies in the real estate sector, such as Poly Developments (600048), China Merchants Shekou (001979), and others [27]. - In the cement sector, it recommends companies like Conch Cement (600585) and Taishan Gypsum (002233) for their competitive advantages and market positioning [49].