Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered its forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.10% due to a weakening outlook for the U.S. labor market [1] Group 1: Yield Forecast - UBS revised the 10-year Treasury yield expectation down from 4.20% to 4.10%, with a stop-loss level set at 4.40% [1] - The firm anticipates that if upcoming U.S. employment data is weak, including initial jobless claims and non-farm payroll data, Treasury yields may decline [1] Group 2: Market Insights - UBS is betting on a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, indicating an expansion in the difference between short-term and long-term yields [1] - Tradeweb data shows the latest 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.199%, having previously reached a two-month low of 4.191% [1]

Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that tariffs are not a zero-sum game and have significant implications for U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. dollar, with a focus on the broader economic impact rather than just the immediate costs to producers and consumers [1][2] - Tariffs paid by U.S. importers are projected to amount to $327 billion annually, which represents 1% of the nominal GDP for 2025 [2][6] - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, profit margins could drop from 13.8% to 11.7% in Q1 2025, significantly below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [2][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that if 75% of the tariffs are passed on to consumers, profit margins could exceed the 15-year moving average by 1.1 percentage points [12][13] - The analysis indicates that the current economic environment is leaning towards downside risks, with a noted decline in air passenger traffic compared to previous years [17] - The report suggests that despite some foreign investors increasing their holdings in U.S. stocks, there is a notable trend of U.S. domestic investors reducing their exposure, indicating a potential reallocation of assets [34][36]

英国十年期国债收益率下降约6个基点，至4.427%，为五月以来的最低水平。 ...

智通财经7月1日电，英国10年期公债收益率亦触及5月2日以来最低，下跌约6个基点至4.427%。 ...

德国国债随其他债券上涨；10年期收益率下跌6个基点至2.55%。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on UK two-year government bonds fell by approximately 5 basis points to 3.772%, marking the lowest level since May [1]

智通财经7月1日电，英国两年期国债收益率当日下跌约5个基点至3.772%，创5月以来最低水平。 ...

智通财经7月1日电，英国10年期国债收益率降至8周低点，报4.436%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that India's 5-year government bond yield has decreased by 6 basis points to 6.04% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on India's 5-year government bonds has decreased by 6 basis points to 6.04% [1]