以下文章来源于中国金融四十人论坛 ，作者缪延亮 中国金融四十人论坛 . 聚焦金融热点，速递论坛动态，独家发布论坛课题成果，连载书系新书、好书。 文 / 中金公司首席策略师、研究部执行负责人 缪延亮 当前美元周期呈现出前所未有的特征，其韧性远超历史经验。这一轮周期 中美元有三个不同寻常的表现，即与其储备货币占比背离、与财政贸易赤 字扩张背离、与美国高通胀背离。 美元周期的形成基于基本面、政策面和资金面三重机制，其中地缘政治因 素 的 影 响 也 很 重 要 。 实 体 与 金 融 层 面 的 正 反 馈 ， 会 让 美 元 周 期 容 易 " 超 调"。 2025年以来， 基本面、政策面和资金面的边际变化显示，美元或已进入 下行周期。未来美元能否稳住，是否已到大拐点，关键要看美国相对其他 国家的经济市场表现与美国自身纠错机制。 美元周期的历史回顾与当前特征 十几年来，我一直在思考一个问题：到底是什么因素导致美元上升和下降的周期性律动？这一次美元周期又有什么不一样的地方？ 回顾历史，我曾在十年前的研报中判断， 2015 年美元肯定会升值。到 2017 年特朗普上台时，美元指数（ DXY 指数）接近 110 ，随后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new energy perspective aligns with the characteristics of Chinese-style modernization, emphasizing resource efficiency, self-control, cost management, market leadership, ecological priority, and open cooperation [1][3]. Group 1: Political Guarantee - The leadership of the Party is essential for the political guarantee of the new energy perspective, which has led to significant achievements in energy production and consumption since the founding of New China [2]. - China's energy self-sufficiency rate has reached over 80%, with the installed capacity of hydropower, wind power, and solar power ranking first globally [2]. Group 2: Top-Level Design - The new energy perspective must meet the energy demands of a large population, ensure common prosperity, balance material and spiritual civilization, promote harmony between humans and nature, and support peaceful development [3]. Group 3: Essential Requirements - High-quality energy development requires a comprehensive implementation of the new development philosophy [4]. Group 4: New Driving Forces - Innovation is identified as the new driving force for energy development, necessitating technological advancements and policy design to enhance energy productivity [5]. - Coordination is crucial throughout the energy planning and operation processes, optimizing the relationship between various energy sources and markets [5]. Group 5: Path Guidance - The "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation" energy security strategy serves as a methodological guide for advancing energy reform and development [6]. - The strategy emphasizes energy consumption, supply, technology, governance, and cooperation [6]. Group 6: Reform and Opening Up - Since the 18th National Congress, China has deepened energy system reforms, establishing a unified and competitive modern energy market [7]. - The integration of the energy sector with the digital economy is prioritized to enhance efficiency and sustainability [7]. Group 7: Development and Security - The principle of coordinating development and security is emphasized, recognizing the interdependence of energy security and economic development [9]. - A resilient energy industry is necessary to address various risks and enhance the overall security of the energy system [9]. Group 8: Six Musts - The "Six Musts" include prioritizing people, self-reliance, innovation, problem orientation, systemic thinking, and global perspective, which are essential for guiding energy development [10][11].

证券代码：000869\200869 证券简称：张裕Ａ\张裕 B 烟台张裕葡萄酿酒股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研□分析师会议 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访□业绩说明会 | | | | | □新闻发布会□路演活动 | | | | | □现场参观 | | | | | √其他（股东大会投资者交流） | | | | 参与单位名称及 | 参加股东大会现场会议的全部投资者 | | | | 人员姓名 | | | | | 时间 | 年 月 上午 2025 5 10:00~12:00 | 23 | 日 | | 地点 | 本公司会议室 | | | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事长周洪江先生、董事兼总经理孙健先生、董事兼副总经理 | | | | 员姓名 | 李记明先生、副总经理姜华先生、董事兼副总经理及董事会秘 | | | | | 书姜建勋先生；总经理助理刘世禄先生；监事于锦凤女士。 | | | | | 孙健（烟台张裕葡萄酿酒股份有限公司总经理） 各位股东、各位基金经理、各位分析师，包括我们的律师 | | | | | 朋友，大家上午 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from a mercantilist trade system dominated by the British East India Company to a more decentralized and spontaneous free trade era characterized by "scatter merchants" in the context of global history [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context - The British government utilized the East India Company to engage in the opium trade, instigating the Opium Wars to control trade with China, leading to the company's eventual dissolution and the end of the Silver Age [2][3]. - The Silver Age was marked by the British Industrial Revolution and free trade, culminating in significant historical events such as the bankruptcy of the East India Company and the destruction of the Old Summer Palace during the Second Opium War [2][3]. Group 2: The Role of "Scatter Merchants" - The book "Mr. Smith Goes to China" by Han Jiexie focuses on the activities of three Scottish merchants named George Smith, whose trade activities in India and China illustrate the rise of the British global empire [2][3]. - These merchants operated during the Qianlong period, and their trade demands prompted the Macartney Mission to China, contributing to the development of a global trade network [3][4]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The trade triangle formed between Britain, India, and China involved the exchange of goods such as tea, silver, cotton, and opium, shaping the economic geography of modern Asia [5][6]. - The East India Company collaborated with the Cohong (Thirteen Hongs) to create a trade and financial system known as the "Guangzhou System," which was later disrupted by the activities of the "Smiths" [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Operations - The "Smiths" provided high-risk loans to Chinese merchants at interest rates of 18%-22%, which, while lower than the legal rate of 36%, led to widespread defaults and contributed to the 1779 Guangzhou financial crisis [7][8]. - They utilized the East India Company's financial system to facilitate the flow of silver from India to Guangzhou, supporting the company's tea purchases, with significant amounts of silver injected into the system [6][7]. Group 5: Impact on Trade Policies - The actions of the "Smiths" challenged the monopoly of the East India Company, leading to a shift in British colonial policy towards more liberal trade practices, culminating in the repeal of the company's trading privileges in 1813 [9][10]. - The article highlights the inherent contradictions in the relationship between the "Smiths" and the East India Company, characterized by both dependency and a desire to undermine the company's monopoly [6][9]. Group 6: The Role of Scottish Merchants - Scottish merchants were significantly more active in trade compared to their English counterparts, driven by a historical context of conquest and subjugation, which fostered a spirit of independence and opposition to monopolistic practices [10][11]. - The "Smiths" embodied the ideals of Adam Smith's free trade philosophy, acting as practitioners of these ideas in the context of the global economy [9][10].

Group 1 - The U.S. oil industry is facing a downturn as producers adjust strategies due to tariffs and falling oil prices, signaling the end of a decade-long shale oil boom [1][2][3] - OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to increase oil production, exacerbating the low state of the U.S. oil industry and raising concerns about a new price war, leading analysts to lower production forecasts [2][3] - U.S. oil production is projected to decline by 1.1% next year to 13.3 million barrels per day, marking the first annual drop in a decade, excluding the pandemic-related decline in 2020 [2][3] Group 2 - The shale oil boom previously enhanced U.S. economic growth, GDP, and job markets, while also reducing dependence on OPEC members [3][4] - The current outlook for U.S. oil companies is grim, with potential further declines in production if oil prices continue to fall [5][7] - Major oil companies are beginning to lay off employees, with Chevron and BP announcing a total of 15,000 job cuts globally, although employment in the U.S. oil sector remains relatively stable this year [8] Group 3 - Some large producers are cutting capital expenditure budgets, with the top twenty shale oil producers reducing their 2025 budgets by approximately $1.8 billion, a 3% decrease [8] - Companies are being forced to tighten spending and focus on maintaining free cash flow to appease investors, with dividends becoming a priority [10]

Group 1 - The article highlights that U.S. oil companies are cutting spending and reducing the number of active drilling rigs due to increased costs from tariffs on steel and aluminum, and falling oil prices, signaling the potential end of a decade-long shale boom [1][3] - OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to increase oil production, exacerbating the downturn in the U.S. oil market and raising concerns about a new price war, leading analysts to lower production forecasts [3] - The Dallas Federal Reserve's quarterly energy industry survey indicates that shale oil producers need oil prices to reach $65 per barrel to break even, while current prices have dropped to $61.53 per barrel, approximately 23% lower than this year's peak [3] Group 2 - The article notes that the decline in production will end significant growth in the U.S. energy sector, which has benefited from the shale revolution that provided cheap oil and gas, improved trade balance, and reduced dependence on foreign suppliers [3] - Former CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, Scott Sheffield, stated that if oil prices fall to $50 per barrel, U.S. oil production could drop by 300,000 barrels per day, exceeding the total production of some smaller OPEC members [4] - Data from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active U.S. land oil rigs decreased by 10 to 553, down 26 from the same time last year, indicating a decline in drilling activity [4]

"我们打造的是'可触摸的环保生态圈'。"拱墅区综合行政执法局相关负责人介绍，该站点创新"线上 +线下"双轨服务模式：居民既可通过"墅袋熊"微信小程序预约"环保骑士"上门回收，也可将可回收物送 至站点兑换米面粮油等30余种生活物资。试运行半个月以来，日均处理量达1.2吨，环保金兑换率超 75%。 七古登再生资源旗舰店 在宣教空间的"循环剧场"，每周上演的环保主题皮影戏场场爆满；旧物改造工作坊、碳足迹计算器 等互动装置，让居民直观感知"一个塑料瓶的重生之旅"；智慧大屏的实时反馈机制，让管理人员实现运 力精准调度。 家住七古登社区的陈阿姨，如今每周都会用手机预约"环保骑士"上门收取废纸箱。"手机一点、废 品变现"的便利体验，源自拱墅区全新落成的再生资源回收旗舰店——这处藏身于社区商业体的"绿色会 客厅"，正以科技赋能与场景创新重塑城市"垃圾革命"。 作为拱墅区"1+3+N"再生资源体系的重要支点，七古登旗舰店与天水、祥符等站点共同构建起15分 钟绿色生活圈。随着智能分拣设备的引入和夜间回收服务的开通，预计今年年底全区标准化站点将突破 50个、年回收量将达8万吨。 在光明商业中心二层，占地约280平方米的七古登再生资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel's performance is steadily growing driven by the release of public travel demand, AI technology revolution, and global expansion [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 4.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%; adjusted EBITDA reached 1.159 billion yuan, up 41.3% [2][3] - The company reported a 40% year-on-year increase in international ticket sales and a 50% increase in international hotel night stays [2] Business Segments - The three core business segments of transportation, accommodation, and vacation all experienced double-digit growth in Q1 2025, with transportation revenue increasing by 15.2% to 2 billion yuan, accommodation revenue rising by 23.3% to 1.19 billion yuan, and vacation revenue growing by 20% to 603 million yuan [1][2] - The annual service user count reached 1.96 billion, with annual paying users hitting a record high of 247 million [2] AI Integration - Tongcheng Travel has advanced its AI capabilities, achieving a 43% improvement in efficiency and an 80% increase in booking efficiency through the integration of "Chengxin AI" and DeepSeek [3] - The AI system can generate personalized travel plans based on user input, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [3] Market Outlook - The CEO of Tongcheng Travel expressed optimism about the growing travel market, particularly among non-first-tier city consumers, and plans to continue focusing on the mass travel market while enhancing AI capabilities [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the resilience of Chinese foreign trade enterprises in the wake of recent trade tensions, showcasing a shift from passive response to proactive adaptation in the global market [1][11]. Group 1: Trade Recovery and Market Dynamics - Following the announcement of the US-China Geneva trade talks, there was a significant surge in container bookings from China to the US, with a nearly 300% increase reported [2][12]. - Major Chinese ports in cities like Guangzhou, Dongguan, Qingdao, and Shanghai have resumed operations, indicating a recovery in manufacturing and shipping activities [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts in Export Markets - Guangzhou Wanbao Group has shifted its export strategy, with non-US markets now accounting for over 50% of its exports, and this figure is expected to exceed 60% this year [4]. - The average export price for the company has increased by 10% to 20% due to strategic adjustments and market diversification [4]. Group 3: E-commerce and Product Innovation - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing a "quality revolution," with Chinese wig exports capturing 80% of the global market share, driven by competitive pricing and e-commerce channels [5][6]. - Companies are focusing on developing products that meet the demands of new markets, particularly in the Middle East, and are utilizing overseas warehouse models to enhance operational efficiency [6][7]. Group 4: Government Support and Policy Initiatives - Local governments are actively supporting cross-border e-commerce initiatives by implementing policies that promote online platforms and participation in international trade fairs [8]. - The "Foreign Trade Quality Products China Tour" initiative has facilitated significant procurement intentions, demonstrating the government's commitment to enhancing domestic and international market integration [9][10]. Group 5: Domestic Market Integration - The trend of integrating domestic and foreign trade is gaining traction, with companies expanding their market reach within China while maintaining export operations [9][10]. - The domestic retail market is projected to reach 48.8 trillion yuan in 2024, highlighting the vast potential for foreign trade products in local markets [9].

"很多人不了解中国有多强"——当马斯克在访谈中抛出这句话时，全球舆论场瞬间被点燃。这位以"第一性原理"颠覆多个行业的科技狂人，用最直白的语言 戳破了西方社会对中国的认知偏差。从发电量暴涨到人才储备井喷，从新能源革命到科技硬实力崛起，中国正以一种"静水深流"的姿态重塑全球格局。马斯 克的惊叹，恰似一面镜子，照见了西方世界对中国实力的集体误判。 光伏奇迹：中国掌控全球90%的多晶硅产能、70%的硅片生产，隆基绿能单晶硅片转换效率26.81%，打破世界纪录。 新能源汽车：比亚迪刀片电池穿刺实验0冒烟，宁德时代麒麟电池实现1000公里续航，直接改写行业标准。 马斯克预言："中国新能源汽车产业链已形成'黑洞效应'，未来全球每卖出三辆电动车，两辆将来自中国。" 现实反转：大疆无人机占据全球85%市场份额，核心技术专利超1.2万项；宁德时代动力电池装机量连续六年全球第一，客户涵盖特斯拉、宝马、奔 驰。 数据对比：中国高铁专利申请量是美德日总和的2.3倍，5G必要专利占比超38%，彻底撕掉"山寨"标签。 2. 盲区二：忽视中国体制的"超大规模优势" 抗疫启示：武汉火神山医院10天建成，背后是3.4万名建设者、500台机械的" ...