韧性

Search documents
大公国际:关税壁垒博弈下中美贸易的发展趋势研究
Da Gong Guo Ji· 2025-03-19 14:49
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing tariff disputes between the US and China, indicating a need for both countries to find a dynamic balance based on mutual interests amid escalating tensions [1][2] - It emphasizes that despite a 30% decline in China's exports to the US due to tariffs, the Chinese economy demonstrates resilience through domestic demand expansion, market diversification, and supply chain restructuring [2][4] - The future of China-US trade is expected to shift towards a "Global South" framework, compensating for short-term adjustments in trade relations [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Quantitative Analysis of Tariff Impact - Tariffs have led to changes in trade volume and structure, with a projected 30% decline in actual trade scale when adjusted for inflation [4][5] - Three scenarios for future trade are outlined: optimistic (5%-7% annual growth), neutral (2%-3% annual decline), and pessimistic (10%-15% annual decline) [4][5] - The report notes that tariffs have accelerated the restructuring of global supply chains, with significant investments in Mexico and Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [5][8] 2. Economic Resilience of China - The contribution of exports to GDP has decreased from 11% in 2017 to 6% in 2024, with domestic consumption becoming the main growth driver [10][11] - China's self-sufficiency in semiconductors has improved from 15% in 2018 to 35% in 2024, showcasing advancements in technology and innovation [11] - Regional economic strategies, such as the Yangtze River Delta integration, have strengthened domestic supply chains and reduced reliance on foreign components [11] 3. Future Development Trends in China-US Trade - The report discusses the potential for a new trade system under the "Global South" framework, with significant increases in exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets [12][14] - It highlights the importance of coordinated monetary and trade policies to stabilize the economy and mitigate the effects of tariffs [14] - The ongoing tariff disputes are expected to lead to a cautious approach in future negotiations, with both sides seeking a new balance in trade relations [15][18]
A股仍在政策窗口期
鲁明量化全视角· 2025-03-09 03:06
每周思考总第619期 《 A股仍在政策窗口期 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现(2023.1.1 至今),其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月9日累计收益6.11%。 上周市场重回上行,沪深300指数涨幅1.39%,上证综指周涨幅1.56%,中证500指数周涨幅 2.63%。 上周我们标题观点提示"A股节奏以我为主",实际A股在海外美股标普单周大跌3%背景下, 依旧实现中阳反弹,与我们预判吻合 。 基本面上,1-2国内进出口平稳,美欧关系出现间隙。 国内方面,上周继续披露1-2月多项经济数 据,进出口整体保持高度韧性符合我们预期,此前已发布的PMI数据预示了2月关税对中国经济影响 依旧在可控范围内,周末发布的物价数据虽双双低于市场预期,但考虑到春节期间物价季节波动因 素,数据趋势仍有待后续再确认,全国两会也给出全年经济目标及财政赤字指引,国内经济整体平稳 可控;海外方面, 上周我们提到了俄乌停战谈判对全球地缘政治关系的深刻长远影响,简要更新谈 判进程,美方宣布暂停对乌军援,俄方加大进攻力度并基本保卫乌军库尔斯克方面突进主力1万人, 战场形势的发展与我们上周给出的推演基本完全一致 ,以上都是 ...
通用无障碍建筑规范检查清单
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-03-05 11:05
Overview - The report highlights the importance of inclusive access in the built environment, emphasizing that accessibility is not only a compliance obligation but also a social mission [30][31][32] - It notes that by 2070, nearly 60% of the global population will reside in urban areas, necessitating accessible environments to accommodate diverse needs [30][31] - The report identifies the need for a comprehensive regulatory framework that includes universal accessibility provisions alongside structural resilience, fire safety, and sustainability [45][46] Introduction - The introduction discusses the evolution of accessibility standards in response to the needs of individuals with varying abilities, particularly following significant social movements post-World Wars [38][42] - It outlines the challenges faced by diverse populations, including the elderly, children, and individuals with disabilities, in accessing built environments [30][31][32] - The report emphasizes the role of global efforts and legislation in shaping accessibility standards to meet the needs of all users [36][42] Goals - The report aims to provide a universal accessibility checklist designed to assist building professionals in enhancing accessibility in the built environment [45][46] - It serves as a practical tool for policymakers and regulatory bodies to evaluate and improve existing accessibility regulations [45][46] - The checklist is intended to be used in conjunction with other modules focusing on fire safety, green building, and structural resilience [47][48] Guidelines for Using the Checklist - A systematic approach is outlined for reviewing accessibility regulations, guiding practitioners through a series of steps to ensure comprehensive evaluations [49][50] - The report stresses the importance of including experts familiar with accessibility issues in the review process to enhance the quality of assessments [50][51] - It provides a framework for identifying gaps in existing regulations and offers technical recommendations for improvement [64][66] Key Concepts in Universal Accessibility Components - The report identifies six key components of universal accessibility in building codes, including access routes, emergency egress, and facilities [72][73] - Each component is broken down into subcomponents, detailing specific requirements for ensuring accessibility in various building types [76][77] - The report emphasizes the need for clear and precise language in regulations to facilitate effective implementation and compliance [57][58]
食品饮料行业周报:具备经营韧性,板块有望逐步修复
Shanghai Securities· 2025-03-03 03:03
[Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告: 《板块分化,关注结构性机会 ——食品饮 料行业周报 20250217-20250223》 ——2025 年 02 月 23 日 《政策托底助力情绪修复,静待花开 —— 食品饮料行业周报 20250210-20250216》 ——2025 年 02 月 16 日 《春节表现平稳,聚焦高质量发展 ——食 品饮料行业周报 20250127-20250209》 ——2025 年 02 月 09 日 具备经营韧性,板块有望逐步修复 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250224-20250302 本周行业要闻:1)安徽规上白酒企业营收 375.8 亿:日前,2025 安徽 食品(白酒)产业链供需对接会在安徽省工信厅举办。会上,安徽省 工信厅通报了 2024 年安徽白酒产业发展情况:2024 年,安徽省规上白 酒企业营业收入 375.8 亿元,同比增长 9.2%;利润总额 127.7 亿元, 同比增长 13.2%,以上各项指标均创 2018 年以来新高。 [Table_Rating] 增持(维持) [◼Table_Summary] 投资要点: [行业Table_Industry] ...
债券进入“高波时代”?央行副行长发声
21世纪经济报道· 2025-02-27 07:54
作 者丨余纪昕 编 辑丨方海平 2月2 6日,据中国人民银行党委委员、副行长陆磊于《学习时报》刊文,其中提到,金融机构 改革化险稳步推进。积极推动通过发行特别国债等方式筹集资金,支持国有大型银行补充核 心一级资本,增强银行风险抵御能力和服务实体经济的动力。 加强债券市场制度建设,提高债券市场市场化定价能力和市场韧性,提高直接融资比重。优 化国有金融布局,合理调整国有金融资本在银行、保险、证券等行业的比重,推动保险、证 券、担保等非银行业金融机构发展,提高资本配置效率。 对于"提高债券市场韧性",记者注意到,近期部分银行面临负债紧张局面,叠加央行货币投 放低于市场预期,引发流动性紧缩和资金压力。去年1 2月债牛行情推动1 0年期国债活跃券收 益率从2 . 0%上方一路冲破1 . 6%。 而春节过后大行"水位低",净融出规模持续徘徊在2万亿元以下,其间一度创历史新低。 资金面承压下,现券和国债期货在前几个交易日连续下跌。隔夜和7天期同业拆借利率的攀 升,推动债券收益率大幅回升,其中1 0年期国债收益率从2月6日的1 . 5 9 2 5%攀升至2月2 5日下 午的1 . 7 6 5 0%。 "债市高波时代正来临。" ...
Flexsteel(FLXS) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-04 15:00
Flexsteel Industries (FLXS) Q2 2025 Earnings Call February 04, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Michael Ressler - CFODerek Schmidt - President & CEO Conference Call Participants Anthony Lebiedzinski - Senior Equity Research Analyst Operator Good morning, and welcome to the Flexsteel Industries Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike Ressler, Chief F ...
今晚抱歉了,诸位原谅则个
猫笔刀· 2024-08-06 13:34
这两天境外市场上天入地,大悲之后是大喜。 虽然有点难过,但还是要接受这个现实,小日子的股市是有充沛的流动性和活力,而a股已经进入到一 个负面的循环,陆陆续续的人都是想着退出,即便卖错了他们也不愿意回头,因为都是伤透了心离开 的。 …… 上面都是下午收盘后写的,晚上出去喝酒,又喝多了,我现在脑袋左右欧呦来回晃荡,这个状态我完全 没发写东西,诸位多包涵了。我现在太困了,发完我就躺着睡了。 昨天跌了12%的日经225指数今天上涨了10%,收复了将近3/4的失地,这个表现在今天的全球反弹里属 于比较出色的,大部分的股市,比如美股(昨晚)、韩股、台股都只反弹了昨天跌幅的一半左右,日本 股市今天的激烈反弹证明了他们的市场有较强的韧性。 写到这我翻了翻昨天的数据,a股中位数下跌2.47%,今天反弹1.8%,按收复比例算的话还不错,只稍 稍逊色于日本,说明咱们也是全球领先的资本市场 需要注意的是,今天反弹较好的是创业板和科创板,以及大量的中小盘股,代表权重股的主板指数表现 惨淡,沪深300指数下午两点半的时候还是-1%,又是最后半小时靠国家队连拉带拽给拖上岸的。 ...