Core Viewpoint - The postponement of high tariffs on the EU by President Trump has eased market concerns over global trade conflicts, reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, multiple macroeconomic risks continue to limit the downside potential for gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - COMEX gold is currently trading at $3338.20 per ounce, down 0.58%, with a daily high of $3356.00 and a low of $3329.30 [2]. - The opening price today was $3355.60, indicating a downward trend in the short term [1][2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on the dollar [1]. - Concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook are expected to support gold prices despite short-term declines [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise by June 2025 due to factors such as the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by Asian countries, and trade tensions [1]. - Key risk factors to monitor include the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes, trade negotiations between the U.S. and other major economies, and changes in market expectations regarding the dollar [1].

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and increased concerns over the U.S. debt burden and tax legislation [2] - Global equity funds experienced a net outflow of $9.4 billion last week, marking the first weekly outflow in six weeks, contrasting sharply with over $20 billion inflow the previous week [2] - U.S. equity funds led the outflows with redemptions totaling $11 billion, followed by Asian funds with $4.6 billion in redemptions, while European equity funds recorded a net inflow of $5.4 billion [5] Group 2 - Emerging market bond funds saw a net inflow of $403 million for the fourth consecutive week, continuing a positive trend, while emerging market equity funds experienced a slight outflow [8] - Despite the outflow in emerging market equity funds, they have attracted $10.6 billion year-to-date, representing a 43% increase compared to the same period last year [8] - Interest in emerging markets has been rekindled, partly due to concerns over the end of U.S. exceptionalism and a lack of clarity regarding U.S. ambitions and intentions [8]

黑色盒属数据日报 | 2025/05/26 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | 7000 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | 6000 | | | 5月23日 | 3059.00 | 3198.00 | 682. 50 | 1406. 50 | 820. 50 | 5000 | | | 涨跌值 | -22.00 | -26.00 | -9.00 | -27.50 | -30. 00 | 4000 | | | | -0.71 | | | | | ...

【玻璃：企业降价去库，盘面再创新低】本周浮法玻璃行业供应小幅增加，平均开工率 75.34%，环比 增加 0.34%，平均产能利用率78.2%，环比增加 0.22 个百分点，周产量增加至 109.71 万吨，日产量仍为 15.67 万吨，与 15 日持平，产量持续增加趋势不明显。下周暂无产线存明确放水、点火计划，但前期点 火产线预计下周出玻璃，产量预计呈增加预期。 1 - 4 月份，全国房地产开发投资同比下降 10.3%；房 屋竣工面积 15648 万平方米，下降 16.9%。 本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存环降 0.46%至 6776.9 万 重箱，自近两个月高位回落，同比增加 13.67%。折库存天数 30.6 天，较上期-0.4 天。 成本方面，石油 焦制、煤炭制、天然气制玻璃成本分别为 1194、1035、1484 元/吨，环比变化分别为 19、-20、-5 元/ 吨；生产利润分别为-87、84.4、-160.8 元/吨，环比变化分别为-17、-19.8、-11.3 元/吨。 宏观层面，美 国国债市场迎来抛售潮，美债美股美元齐跌，国内从一季度的生产强需求弱转为产需双弱格局，4 月各 项指标较 3 月有不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing slight pressure due to a delay in high tariffs on the EU announced by President Trump, which has reduced market concerns over global trade conflicts and subsequently weakened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 26, gold prices reported at $3347.54 per ounce, with a decline of 0.28%, reaching a high of $3356.32 and a low of $3331.05 during the session [1] - The overall trend for gold last week was a volatile upward movement, with a weekly low of $3204 and a high of $3365, closing the week at $3359 [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The delay in tariff implementation has temporarily pressured gold prices, but concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook continue to support gold's value [2] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting additional pressure on the dollar [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, influenced by the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by major Asian countries, and trade-related anxieties [2]

Group 1 - The tragic story of 9-year-old Zhu Mouxin highlights the extreme pressure from parental expectations, leading to severe psychological trauma [1][8][22] - Zhu's father, who had high hopes for his son's success in Go, resorted to physical punishment and public humiliation when Zhu lost games, exacerbating the child's distress [3][4][6] - The incident has prompted police investigation and raised awareness about the detrimental effects of excessive parental pressure on children's mental health [7][8][39] Group 2 - Many children, like Zhu, experience similar pressures, leading to long-lasting emotional scars, even if they do not resort to extreme measures [9][20] - The narrative includes other individuals, such as Li Dong, who faced similar parental expectations, resulting in anxiety and a strained relationship with their parents [11][15][55] - The article discusses the broader implications of high parental expectations, with statistics indicating that 68% of middle school students experience anxiety due to their parents' demands [22][48] Group 3 - Experts in child psychology emphasize that not all pressure is harmful; constructive pressure can help children grow, but negative pressure can lead to serious mental health issues [39][40] - The article also explores the idea that parents' anxieties often manifest as high expectations for their children, which can create a cycle of stress and disappointment [48][50] - A shift in perspective is noted among some parents, like Xu Jing, who realize the importance of allowing children to enjoy their childhood rather than overwhelming them with expectations [35][52]

据国家市场监管总局披露的信息显示，太盟珠海、高和丰德、腾讯控股、京东潘达以及阳光人寿直 接或通过其各自关联方共同设立合营企业，并计划通过该合营企业收购大连万达持有的48家目标 公司的100%股权。 值得一提的是，参与此次联合收购的企业几乎都曾与万达有过合作历史。例如，腾讯控股和京东曾 在2018年以340亿元入股万达商业，分别持股4.12%和2.06%。而阳光人寿等险资机构也在过去两 年中多次出手接盘万达广场项目，帮助万达缓解债务压力。尤其值得注意的是，在万达遭遇流动性 危机期间，腾讯控股一直扮演着"关键先生"的角色，包括上海儒意影视制作有限公司以22.62亿元 的价格收购北京万达投资49%股权等。 有市场消息称，此次交易金额将达到500亿元。 据澎湃新闻报道，知情人士称，交易将通过专项基 金平台完成，由太盟主导投资约50亿元认购基金次级份额，国有大行组成的银团提供300亿元贷款 授信，剩余150亿元则通过夹层融资渠道募集。 资料图。本文来源：金融界 市场分析指出，此次交易回笼的500亿元资金将显著缓解大连万达集团的流动性压力。然而，也有 声音提醒，这48个项目的区域分布与业态组合差异较大，维持租金水平存在不 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 26 日星期一 | | 中证 500 | 上行 | 内企业境外直接上市资金管理，明确境外上市募集资金、减持或转让股份 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 所得资金原则上应汇回境内，股东因增持汇出资金如有剩余或交易未达成 | | | | | 时，应及时汇回境内。明确境外发行可转债和将可转债转为股票相关管理 | | | 中证 1000 | 上行 | 要求。今年超长期特别国债首只 50 年期品种发行落地，加权平均中标利 | | | | | 率为 2.1%，高于银行间债市同期限债券收益率，较 2 月同期限国债续发 | | 2 | 年期国债 | 震荡 | 行时的收益率低点上行约 19BP（基点）。受访人士认为，随着市场对关 | | | | | 税影响的逐步消化，债市交易逻辑重点聚焦供给压力和资金面情况。在降 | | 5 | 年期国债 | 震荡 | 准落地后，资金价格整体不降反升，进一步引起市场对宽货币持续性的担 | | | | | 忧。中美关税取得阶段性成果，外围市场企稳，市场避险情绪缓和，股指 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent bond auctions in Japan, the US, and China have shown significantly reduced demand, indicating a cooling in the primary market[2] - Japan's 20-year bond auction on May 20 had a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, with a tail of 1.14, the highest since 1987[7] - The US 20-year bond auction on May 21 saw a yield of 5.047%, exceeding expectations, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February[7] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - Following the weak bond auctions, long-term interest rates surged, with Japanese bond yields rising approximately 15 basis points, and 30-year US Treasury yields surpassing 5%[2] - The domestic 50-year bond auction on May 23 reported a yield of 2.10%, higher than the estimated yield of 2.025%, reflecting a decline in market enthusiasm[7] Group 3: Economic Factors - Uncertainty in policy expectations has increased, with the market pricing in potential rate hikes in Japan and a reduced urgency for rate cuts in the US due to strong employment data and rising inflation[3] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are growing, particularly in the US, where high deficits and tax cuts have weakened demand for government bonds[4] Group 4: Domestic Market Resilience - Despite the volatility in US and Japanese markets, China's long-term bond market has shown resilience, supported by a relatively loose monetary policy and attractive yield levels around 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.90% for 30-year bonds[5] - The trading environment in China remains stable, with market heat indices falling below the 40th percentile, indicating low risk of forced adjustments[5]

点击小程序查看报告原文 4月至今，特朗普的关税政策经历了一系列"戏剧性"变化， 对华"对等关税"从4月2日宣布加征的34%，逐步加码至"非理性"的125%，再降至中美会谈后甚 至比预期更低的10%（《 中美关税"降级"的资产含义 》）。市场也是如此，从关税宣布后的大跌到目前已经完全修复失地，就好像关税带来的影响"从没 发生过一样"。 图表：美国对中国本轮关税由145%降至30%，另外24%暂缓90天执行 资料来源：PIIE，中金公司研究部 关税政策如同"儿戏"般的变化，固然有特朗普自身执政风格的鲜明烙印，但也有不得不向现实低头的约束，因为如此高的关税对中美而言都是无法长期承 受的。 因此，关税从一个几乎等于"贸易禁运"的非理性水平降至一个"可贸易可谈判"的水平，虽然在时点和幅度上是无法预知的偶然，但几乎也是现实 的必然， 否则美国通胀、经济和金融市场都会面临很大压力，4月中下旬"股债汇三杀"就是市场的预演（《 上次"股债汇三杀"发生了什么？ 》）。 图表："对等关税"以来，美国4月中下旬出现股债汇"三杀" 资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 往前看，关税政策进展大概率依然存在很大变数，不排除还会反复 ...