信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 地缘扰动释放，焦煤相对抗跌，等待做多机会 -------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡 焦煤——震荡 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 报告内容摘要: 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 25 日 [Table_Summary] 相关资讯： 1. 伊朗高级官员确认，德黑兰已同意由卡塔尔斡旋、美国提出的与以色列 的停火协议。 焦煤： 现货偏弱，期货回落。蒙 5#主焦煤报 868 元/吨(-0)。活跃合约报 784 元/吨(-23)。基 差 104 元/吨(+23)，9-1 月差-43.5 元/吨（-7）。 矿端复产，焦企产能利用率下调。523 家矿山开工率报 ...

从国家统计局近日发布的70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格看，5月份，一二三线城市商品住宅销售价格 环比有所下降。这是否意味着房地产市场未能保持企稳回升态势？ 5月份房价数据呈现一定波动，表明我国房地产市场仍在调整过程中，市场信心还在修复，市场供求关 系仍待改善。也应该看到，当前房地产市场运行呈现很多积极因素。日前召开的国务院常务会议明确， 更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。我们应对房地产市场的平稳健康发展充满信心。 房地产市场运行总体平稳，房价同比降幅继续收窄。70个大中城市中，多数城市商品住宅5月份销售价 格同比降幅收窄。其中，一二三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比降幅分别比上月收窄0.4个、0.4个和 0.5个百分点；二手住宅销售价格同比降幅分别收窄0.5个、0.4个和0.5个百分点。 一些城市房地产市场活跃度较高。房地产市场分化较为明显，一线城市和部分二线城市市场较好，三四 线城市市场相对平淡。1月至5月，北京市新建商品房销售面积393.3万平方米，同比增长5.2%。1月至5 月，上海市房地产开发投资较去年同期增长4.0%；商品房销售面积较去年同期增长0.6%。深圳市第24 周（6月9日至6月15日）二手房成交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Shenzhen Zhenye (Group) Co., Ltd. is maintained at AA with a stable outlook, while the specific bond "23 Zhenye 02" is rated AAA, reflecting the company's solid financial support and external backing from the Shenzhen Municipal Government [3][29]. Financial Overview - As of 2025, the total assets of the company are reported at 263.99 billion, with total liabilities at 179.30 billion, resulting in a net asset value of 84.69 billion [8]. - The company has experienced significant losses, with a net profit of -17.51 billion in 2024, following a loss of -9.02 billion in 2023 [21]. - The net debt ratio has improved to 50.04% as of 2022, down from 61.97% in 2023, indicating a reduction in leverage [10][21]. Operational Performance - The company has not acquired new projects since 2024, leading to a high proportion of existing projects in lower-tier cities, which face significant sales challenges [15][16]. - The total land reserve area is reported at 2,129.58 million square meters, with a focus on projects in Huizhou, Heyuan, and Nanning, which are experiencing low market demand [16][25]. Industry Context - The real estate industry is facing downward pressure, with sales and investment expected to remain low in 2024, although supportive policies are anticipated to improve the market environment [14]. - The company benefits from its status as a key real estate development platform under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which provides it with certain external support [25][26]. Debt and Financing - The bond "23 Zhenye 02" has a total issuance of 7.5 billion, fully backed by Shenzhen High-tech Investment Guarantee Co., Ltd., ensuring strong repayment support [26][28]. - The company maintains a favorable financing environment, with a comprehensive financing cost reduced to 3.76% as of March 2025, and has successfully rolled over mid-term notes at lower interest rates [16][27]. Risk Factors - The company faces challenges due to the real estate market's supply-demand imbalance, particularly in projects located in low-demand areas, which may impact future sales performance [4][7]. - The profitability has deteriorated, with significant impairment provisions recorded for inventory, indicating potential future risks related to asset values [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency has maintained the AAA rating for the company, indicating strong competitive capabilities and brand influence in the real estate sector, despite facing certain financial pressures and risks related to contingent liabilities [3][5][7]. Financial Performance - Total assets as of March 2025 are reported at 1,775.00 billion, showing a decline from 2,144.32 billion in 2022 [3]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected at -25.59 million, a significant drop from 1.21 million in 2023 [3]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 66.17 million, down from 106.42 million in 2023 [3]. - The sales gross margin for 2024 is 21.76%, a decrease from 26.47% in 2023 [3]. Debt and Liabilities - Total debt as of March 2025 is 675.62 billion, slightly up from 674.34 billion in 2024 [3]. - The company has a net debt ratio of 97.68%, indicating a high level of leverage [4]. - As of the end of 2024, the company has contingent liabilities amounting to 36.63 billion, primarily related to guarantees for joint ventures [5]. Market Position and Sales - The company remains a leading player in the real estate market, with a projected total sales amount of 369.00 billion for 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 19.88% [5][7]. - The company has a significant land reserve, with a remaining developable area of 821.58 million square meters as of the end of 2024 [15]. Operational Insights - The company has diversified financing channels, including bank loans and public market bond financing, which remain open and accessible [5]. - The commercial real estate segment continues to perform well, contributing positively to cash flow and profits, despite a slight decline in rental rates [15][16]. Industry Context - The real estate market is currently in a recovery phase, with sales beginning to stabilize, particularly in high-tier cities [9][10]. - The commercial real estate sector is shifting towards stock competition, with retail properties performing better than office spaces [11][12].

美联储主席鲍威尔：商业房地产市场状况并未恶化，我们正在逐步应对。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant land auction in Beijing, where a plot was sold for 2.08 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [5]. - The report notes that the real estate sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 1.15% and 1.79% respectively on June 24, 2025 [3]. - The report mentions that the issuance of housing vouchers in Huizhou has accelerated, with 513 vouchers issued covering 230 projects, reflecting a rapid implementation of real estate policies [5]. Market Performance - The report lists the top five performing stocks in the real estate sector, with gains of 4.28%, 4.17%, 4.00%, 3.77%, and 3.66% for Zhongtian Service, Jintou City Development, Phoenix Holdings, Chunlan Holdings, and Zhongzhou Holdings respectively [4]. - Conversely, the report notes declines in stocks such as Wantong Development and Shibei Gaoxin, with losses of -5.48% and -0.21% respectively [4]. Company Announcements - China Railway Real Estate Group announced a reduction in the coupon rate of its bond from 3.4% to 2.36% [8]. - Vanke reported a loan application of 1.7 billion yuan, with a current balance of 1.217 billion yuan, and an extension of the loan term by two years [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a prolonged adjustment period, with significant price declines in major cities, confirming predictions made by Professor Wu Xiaoling in 2018 about the end of the real estate bubble [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since 2021, domestic housing prices have been on a downward trend, initially affecting second and third-tier cities like Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang, and now extending to first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5]. - In Shanghai, the average price in the city center has dropped by over 30% [5]. - The nationwide second-hand housing market is experiencing a widespread price decline, indicating a persistent trend of asset depreciation [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Professor Wu has warned investors, particularly younger demographics, to be cautious of asset depreciation and debt crisis risks, which are increasingly becoming a reality [3]. - Investors who purchased properties at high prices in previous years are facing dual pressures of reduced income and increased holding costs, leading to significant debt risks [3]. Group 3: Impact on Speculators - Speculators holding multiple properties are experiencing mounting debt pressure, exacerbated by the ongoing effects of the pandemic [6]. - Despite banks lowering mortgage rates to historical lows, many speculators are struggling with business downturns and unemployment, resulting in heightened repayment pressures compared to ordinary homeowners [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market shows a clear recovery trend in the first quarter of this year, with the future heat of the land market dependent on five key factors: improvement of the financing environment, stability of new housing transaction volume, effective inventory reduction, transformation of sales models under new real estate paradigms, and optimization of land supply rules [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financing Environment - The financing environment directly influences the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land, with a relatively loose financing environment currently aiding market stabilization [6]. - The real estate financing landscape has undergone significant adjustments, transitioning from a high-leverage model to a more regulated environment, with a focus on standardized financing methods [6][7]. - As of the end of April 2024, the balance of real estate development loans was 13.56 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, supported by both the extension of existing financing and new investments from the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism [7]. Group 2: New Housing Market Transaction Volume - The new housing market serves as a barometer for the land market, with a notable recovery in the first quarter of 2025, where new housing transaction area in major cities increased by 6% year-on-year [8]. - However, the momentum in the new housing market weakened in the second quarter, leading to potential pressure on the land market's continued growth [8][9]. - In the first five months of 2025, cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw significant year-on-year increases in new housing transaction areas, with growth rates of 13% and 106%, respectively [8]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Inventory - The total inventory of commercial housing remains high, with a pending sale area of 77.427 million square meters as of May 2025, although it has decreased by 7.15 million square meters over three months [10]. - Different cities exhibit varying inventory clearance cycles, with cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai having a clearance cycle of less than 12 months, indicating a more active land market [10]. Group 4: New Sales Models - The implementation of a current housing sales system is a crucial reform aimed at enhancing product quality and optimizing market supply-demand dynamics [11][12]. - The shift towards current housing sales is expected to lower purchasing risks for buyers and test the financial strength and product quality of real estate companies [12]. Group 5: Land Supply Rules - Land supply is being adjusted through total volume reduction, structural optimization, and innovative rules to align with market changes and promote high-quality industry development [13][14]. - Many cities have significantly reduced land supply plans, with some cities like Dongguan and Yantai seeing reductions exceeding 40% [13]. - Innovations in land transaction rules, such as flexible payment options and streamlined approval processes, are being piloted in various regions to enhance the attractiveness of land development [14].

当房价开始下行的时候，全面取消"三限"，才是房地产真正走向市场的第一步。 房地产到今天早已经不再是单纯的房地产，在某种意义上，它还和宏观经济乃至消费高度绑定。 如此重要的一个行业，今天终于有机会"全面市场化"。 市场化，是一个我们再熟悉不过的词汇，但在过去的房地产市场里，严格意义上，它并不那么"市场"。 房子要限售，还要限购，甚至还要限价。在"三限"的要求下，房子变成了稀缺的商品，它的价值自然也水涨船高，当市场的力量开始失灵的时候，房价自然 也就很容易突破它原本的"市场价值"。 这是今天高房价的主因。 现在，轮到了广州。 6月12日，广州市商务局发布关于公开征求《广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案（征求意见稿）》意见的通知。 这份通知提及，将优化房地产政策，全面取消限购、限售、限价，降低贷款首付比例和利率。 征求意见稿指出，要扎实推进城中村及老旧小区改造，2025年计划推进新开工老旧小区改造超150个，更新住宅老旧电梯超9000台，完成城中村改造固定资 产投资1000亿元。 同时，还要持续优化住房公积金使用政策，支持缴存人在提取住房公积金支付购房首付款的同时申请住房公积金个人住房贷款，进一步优化租房提取措施。 这 ...

Group 1: Dollar Strength and Market Impact - The recent strengthening of the dollar is viewed as a significant factor affecting global liquidity, potentially leading to a capital outflow from markets like Hong Kong when the dollar is strong [2][6] - Despite analysts predicting a decline in the dollar, its value is fundamentally tied to U.S. credit, and recent geopolitical events have prompted a reassessment of the dollar's worth globally [4][6] - The U.S. stock market remains the best-performing market globally, and a stable or rising dollar could lead to a liquidity retreat back to the U.S. [6] Group 2: Real Estate Market Concerns - A recent report from a foreign investment bank suggests that demand in the Chinese real estate market may be halved, which is alarming given that 60% of Chinese households' wealth is tied up in real estate [7][8] - The decline in property value expectations may dampen consumer confidence, but it is noted that investors who buy both real estate and stocks are primarily the ones affected [8] - As real estate loses its appeal, funds are likely to shift towards the stock market, as indicated by a notable change in ETF fund flows since June 13 [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Institutional Behavior - The current market is characterized by volatility, which may frustrate retail investors, but this fluctuation is seen as institutional investors testing the waters [10][12] - There is a significant cognitive gap between retail investors, who focus on price movements, and institutional investors, who pay attention to trading behaviors [12][19] - The example of Guizhou Moutai illustrates that institutional holdings do not guarantee stock price increases, as seen with the "zombie positions" where institutions hold shares but do not actively trade them [13][15] Group 4: Quantitative Data Insights - Quantitative data serves as a critical tool for understanding market dynamics, with active institutional trading during periods of volatility being a key indicator of stock price direction [16][18] - The market is described as an information battleground, where understanding the essence of capital flows is crucial for making informed investment decisions [18]