作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） A股食品饮料赛道自从2021年2月见顶以来，已足足调整4年之久，整体跌幅超过40%，让众多价值投资者备感煎熬。 不可否认的是，该赛道这些年也依旧跑出了一些牛股，比如东鹏饮料、盐津铺子、万辰集团等。但毕竟占比少之又少，其核心大本营的白酒板 块沦为无人问津的状态，与 2021年之前的亢奋追捧形成鲜明对比。 如今，国家稳经济、促消费强力刺激政策不断推出，很多细分消费赛道依然开启大涨行情，沉沦已久的白酒赛道，能否也能迎来熬出头的机会 呢？ 01 白酒之所以连续下跌，并不是情绪主导，而是与基本面持续下行密切相关。 2022-2024年，A股上市白酒企业归母净利润增速逐步下降，分别为20.3%、18.9%、7.4%。 要知道， 2004年以来，这19年当中仅有2013、2014年因三公消费出现双位数负增长外，其余年份白酒板块净利润均保持了双位数强劲增 长。2024年仅录得7.4%，打破了白酒多年持续高增的神话。 如果将 2024年拆成季度表现来看，Q1-Q4归母净利润增速分别为15.8%、11.8%、2%、-3.4%。四季度出现罕见负增长， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly Baijiu, is accelerating its international expansion as domestic market conditions become challenging, with major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye actively seeking growth opportunities abroad [1][2]. Industry Overview - In 2024, the production of Baijiu in China saw a decline of 1.8%, with major listed companies reporting weak performance [1]. - The total export value of Chinese Baijiu reached $970 million in 2024, marking a 20.4% increase, while the export volume was 16,400 liters, up 6.3% [3]. - Kweichow Moutai alone accounted for over 70% of the Baijiu export market, with overseas revenue reaching approximately $7.02 billion, a 19.27% increase year-on-year [3]. Company Strategies - Kweichow Moutai aims to become an international company by 2035, while Wuliangye has prioritized international markets as a key goal for the year [1]. - The company has been enhancing its product structure and optimizing its export strategy to improve sales quality in international markets [3][4]. Market Challenges - Despite the growth in exports, Baijiu's international presence remains limited, with exports only accounting for 2.4% of the global spirits trade [5]. - Cultural differences, competition from established international brands, and tariff barriers pose significant challenges for Baijiu's global expansion [6]. Long-term Vision - Kweichow Moutai has outlined a long-term strategy focusing on quality, cultural promotion, and sustainable practices to enhance its international brand influence [7][11]. - The company is actively pursuing international certifications and has achieved significant recognition in ESG ratings, which are increasingly important for global market entry [8][12]. Sustainability Efforts - Kweichow Moutai has implemented comprehensive sustainability measures, including carbon footprint reduction and resource recycling initiatives, aiming for a 20% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 [13][14]. - The company is also working with suppliers to promote green practices and certifications, contributing to a sustainable supply chain [14].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing a slight decline in revenue and net profit, indicating pressure from external market conditions [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and a net profit of 290 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 800 million yuan, a decline of 4.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million yuan, down 9.3% year-on-year [1] Product Structure and Sales Channels - The product structure continues to optimize, with significant growth in self-operated sales outside the region. In 2024, high-end, mid-range, and low-end products generated revenues of 1.53 billion, 510 million, and 130 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.3%, -8.2%, and -20.5% [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products was 620 million, 130 million, and 30 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +8.8%, -30.7%, and -41.0% [2] - The company’s direct sales channel showed resilience, with revenue of 490 million yuan in 2024, up 90.9% year-on-year, and 200 million yuan in Q1 2025, up 69.9% year-on-year [2] Gross Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 52.3%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a gross margin of 48.8%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The sales and management expense ratios for 2024 were 11.9% and 4.1%, respectively, with increases of 2.5 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.1%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 had a net profit margin of 18.0%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company is undergoing significant transformation, focusing on core products and optimizing its marketing system to enhance sales team performance [4] - New product launches and external sales efforts are expected to drive growth, particularly in high-end product segments [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 320 million, 370 million, and 430 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.68, 0.77, and 0.90 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.05 billion yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 830 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 4.9% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.2 billion yuan, which accounts for 46.35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The dividend yield is estimated at 3.1% based on the market capitalization as of April 28, 2025 [1] Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 5.71 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.5% [2] - For Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue decreased by 8.6%, and ordinary liquor revenue fell by 32.1%, attributed to the early Spring Festival, weak consumption, and proactive destocking [2] - The company's revenue from the domestic market was 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 1.91 billion yuan, up 1.3% [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 73.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from improved product mix [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 76.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increasing slightly [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 35.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 40.6%, also up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Based on the Q1 2025 report, revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered, while gross margin and expense ratios have been adjusted upwards [4] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.37 yuan, 3.91 yuan, and 4.46 yuan, respectively [4] - The company is considered to have a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, with a target price of 57.29 yuan, maintaining a buy rating [4]

| | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,257 | 5,358 | 5,605 | 5,851 | 6,080 | | 同比增长 (%) | 13.0% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 884 | 1,059 | 1,198 | 1,315 | 1,407 | | 同比增长 (%) | -5.4% | 19.8% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 7.0% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 666 | 787 | 890 | 977 | 1,051 | | 同比增长 (%) | -5.9% | 18.2% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 7.6% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.73 | 0.86 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 1.15 | | 毛利率(%) | 67.2% | 65.9% | 66.6% | 67.2% | 67.6% | | 净利率(%) | 12.7% | 14.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].

基地市场保持稳健增长，24 年控费成效凸 显 核心观点 25.9/8.58/5.50/2.30/10.99 亿元，同比+9.96%/-10.33%/+0.53%/+28.12%/+12.3%。 按地区划分，24 年全年河北/山东/安徽/湖南/其他省份分别实现收入 31.2/2.1/5.5/11.0/3.3 亿元，分别同比+2.6%/+31.4%/+0.5%/+12.3%/+20.7%。 25Q1 河北/山东/安徽/湖南/其他省份分别实现收入 7.2/0.4/1.3/2.1/0.6 亿元，分别同 比+8.0%/+7.9%/+2.5%/+9.7%/-36.6%。24 年年末，公司在河北/山东/安徽/湖南/其 他省份经销商数量分别环比 24Q3 末+16/+17/+13/-66/+13 家。25Q1 末，公司在河 北/山东/安徽/湖南/其他省份经销商数量分别环比 24 年年末+13/-22/+7/+73/+12 家。 ⚫ 24 年控费成果显现费用率降低，25 年营业利润目标增速为 12%。24 全年归母净利 率为 14.69%，同比增加 2.02pct；全年累计销售/管理/财务/研发费用率分别为 23.69%/7. ...

Group 1 - Wuliangye has launched its "He Mei Global Tour" in Japan, showcasing Chinese culture through a series of cultural exchange activities in Tokyo and Osaka [2][4] - As a senior partner of the 2025 Osaka-Kansai Expo, Wuliangye has opened its first overseas authorized experience restaurant in Tokyo and a themed pop-up store, marking a significant step in promoting Chinese baijiu culture internationally [4][6] - The event featured a combination of Wuliangye's classic products with a custom fusion menu, receiving positive feedback from attendees, indicating a successful integration of top-tier liquor with high-end dining [4][6] Group 2 - The pop-up store in Osaka introduced innovative products that combine baijiu with modern tea drinks, appealing to younger consumers and breaking traditional barriers between baijiu and contemporary lifestyle [8][9] - The new beverage offerings, such as "Wugu Ronin" cocktail and "Nongqing Jiuxin Latte," have gained popularity among the youth, reflecting a trend in Japan's new beverage market, which is growing at an annual rate of 4.5% [8][9] - Wuliangye's activities in Japan are part of a broader strategy to enhance its international presence and engage with global cultural exchanges, aligning with the theme of the Osaka Expo [12]

以下文章来源于征探财经 ，作者征探君 征探财经 . 资本市场的征探君。把征探财经设置为星标，不会错过每篇文章哦～～ 来源丨征探财经 作者丨五仁 4月28日，迎驾贡酒同时披露了2024年报和2025年第一季度报告。2024年，迎驾贡酒营收73.44亿元，同比增长8.46%；归属于上市公司股东的净 利润25.89亿元，同比增长13.45%。 然而，在2025年第一季度，迎驾贡酒的业绩出现下滑——收入20.47亿元，同比减少12.35%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润8.29亿元，同比减少 9.54%。 受此影响，4月29日，迎驾贡酒股价一度触及跌停，最终以44.41元/股收盘，跌幅8.98%。 过去几年里，通过发力中高档白酒市场，迎驾贡酒的营收和净利润保持了两位数增长，而2024年，迎驾贡酒营收增速降至个位，2025年第一季度业 绩更是出现下滑。新的一年，迎驾贡酒能否稳住增长呢？ 01 发力中高档白酒 在过去几年里，迎驾贡酒一直保持着两位数增长。2021年-2023年，迎驾贡酒分别收入45.77亿元、55.05亿元、67.2亿元，分别同比增长 32.58%、19.59%、22.07%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润分别为 ...

编者按 A股市场2024年年报和2025年一季报业绩披露已收官。正逢"五一"长假，证券时报记者精选了几大行业，对相关行业业绩和亮点进行了梳理，以飨读者。 今年一季度，贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒等酒企营业总收入仍保持稳定增长，而洋河股份、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒等多家酒企同比出现明显下降。 整体来看，白酒行业仍呈现出明显分化局面，头部企业凭借品牌、渠道优势实现逆势增长，而部分区域酒企则面临库存与动销压力，业绩下滑比较明显。 龙头酒企业绩保持稳定增长 在存量竞争背景下，头部酒企通过品牌、渠道和创新巩固优势，业绩保持稳定增长。 从营业总收入来看，贵州茅台（600519）以1741.44亿元的营业总收入，排名第一；五粮液（000858）的营业总收入为891.75亿元，排名第二；山西汾酒 （600809）、泸州老窖（000568）2024年的营业总收入超过300亿元；洋河股份（002304）、古井贡酒（000596）2024年的营业总收入超过200亿元。 从营业总收入同比增长幅度来看，贵州茅台、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、今世缘（603369）等多家酒企2024年营业总收入增速不低于10%，而*ST岩石 （600696）、酒鬼酒（00 ...