"5·07"增量政策不低于市场预期甚至某些方面还略超出了市场期待，但总体上是落实前述政治局会议的 部署。 在外部环境不确定性挑战和新旧动能转换压力的背景下，5月7日，中国出台了一揽子稳市场稳预期的金 融增量政策（下称"5·07"增量政策）。与去年9月24日出台的一揽子金融增量政策（下称"9·24"增量政 策）相比，当前国内金融市场反应显得较为克制。 增量政策范围广、措施多、落地快 去年7月30日的中央政治局会议在强调坚定不移完成全年经济社会发展目标任务的同时，明确提出宏观 政策要持续用力、更加给力。要加强逆周期调节，实施好积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，加快全面 落实已确定的政策举措，及早储备并适时推出一批增量政策举措。但是，"9·24"增量政策力度之大、范 围之广依然超出了市场预期。 当时，国新办在股市开盘前的九点安排了新闻发布会，会上宣布了一揽子金融增量政策。其中：降息20 个基点、降准0.5个百分点，其力度都是超常规的；创设稳股市的两项结构性货币政策工具，显示央行 用实际行动支持资产价格稳定，这也大大出乎了市场意料。 两天之后9月26日的政治局会议才揭晓了"5·07"增量政策出台的背景和思路。会议指出， ...

5月10日至11日的周末，全世界都关注着在瑞士日内瓦举行的中美经贸高层会谈。于瑞士时间5月12日上午9时，双方 发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。 商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话：双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识，美方承诺取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号 行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令对中 国商品加征的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。 相应地，中方取消对美国商品加征的共计91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的34%反制关税，相应暂停其中24%的关 税90天，剩余10%的关税予以保留。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。 双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，开展进一步磋商。 受此消息带动，全球资产出现异动。 富时中国A50期货一度涨超2%。 据指美国对冲基金期望中美贸易谈判取得进展，而看好中资股，增加了对中资股的押注。 另一方面，美股期货也飙升，其中标普500期货指数攀升2.8%，纳斯达克100期货上涨3.78%，道琼斯期货也一度大涨 90 ...

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）5月12日，据新华社消息，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布。中国和美国认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要 性；认识到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性；鉴于双方近期的讨论，相信持续的协商有助于解决双方在经贸领域关切的问题；本着相互开 放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精神，继续推进相关工作。 正如人民银行日前发布的《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》强调，"坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度， 坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范 汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定"。 展望后市，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，在关税战取得突破性进展后，人民币汇率有望在当前区间延续升值走势，这也反映出国际资本对于人民 币资产的信心。 商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/5/12 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,220 | +63↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1384049 | -37020↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 136,951 | -12932↓ HC10 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9378 | 23 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2544 | -7 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 178 | 30 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 232 | 4 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 292927 | -15753 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 576482 | 4096 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 25914 | -9564 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -37241 | 6117 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 1707 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 31218 | 1993 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 711.7 | 12.2 期货收盘价(活跃合约): ...

以下文章来源于玉渊谭天 ，作者谭主 玉渊谭天 . 简单逻辑看复杂世界 据玉渊谭天，当地时间5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。会谈达成一系列 重要共识，取得实质性进展。 当地时间5月12日，中美发表日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明。 谭主了解到，此次会谈达成的联合声明平衡、有利于双方。 关于这次会谈，有三句话，值得注意。 【会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。】 坦诚、深入、建设性，谭主也和多位经贸专家进行了交流，用大白话总结： ｜｜坦诚，就是该聊的都聊了 ｜｜深入，就是要聊的都聊到了 ｜｜建设性，就是双方都认为聊得还不错 常年研究世界经济与政治的高凌云告诉谭主，放到当前中美经贸形势的语境下： 坦诚，就是双方都把自己关切的问题提了出来，比如在这轮贸易摩擦中，开诚布公地提出来，自己为 什么认为受到了损失，对所谓"对等"关税是怎么看待的，都直接地说出来。 深入，意味着双方会在某些问题提供出一些量化的数据，这使得对某些问题的讨论并不只停留在原 则、表面上的分析。 建设性，证明这次会谈取得了成果，并且双方都对这些成果比较满意。 中国社会科学院美国研究所经济室主任罗振兴 ...

林剑表示，关于中美经贸高层会谈，中方已经发布了消息。我们刚拿到这个相关的情况，双方已经发布了会谈 达成的联合声明，你可以具体查阅。 商务部新闻发言人就中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发表谈话 当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和 贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。双方围绕落实今年1月17日中美元首通话重要共识进行 了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识。当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话。 2025年4月以来，美国政府在此前单边加征关税的基础上，又对华加征所谓"对等关税"，中国进行了坚决正当 反制。随后美方轮番升级关税措施，将对华"对等关税"税率从第一轮的34%先后提升至84%和125%。美高额关 税严重损害双边正常经贸往来，严重破坏国际经贸秩序。本次会谈达成了联合声明，是双方通过平等对话协商 解决分歧迈出的重要一步，为进一步弥合分歧和深化合作打下了基础、创造了条件。 双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识。双方认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile trend. Last week, the industrial data was below expectations, with a significant weakening in steel demand. The output of rebar declined, and the apparent demand decreased substantially, leading to an increase in inventory. The output of hot-rolled coils remained stable, but the apparent demand also declined, resulting in a corresponding increase in inventory. The real estate downturn and seasonal patterns contributed to the decline in the apparent demand for building materials, and hot-rolled coils faced pressure on exports due to overseas anti-dumping measures. On the macro front, the high-level Sino-US economic and trade negotiations achieved substantial progress [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3022 yuan/ton, a decline of 74 yuan, and a drop of 2.39%. The total trading volume was 8,123,194 lots, and the total open interest was 2,893,444 lots [2]. - SHFE hot-rolled coils had a closing price of 3157 yuan/ton, a decline of 47 yuan, and a drop of 1.47%. The total trading volume was 2,485,168 lots, and the total open interest was 1,395,031 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 696.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.5 yuan, and a drop of 1.07%. The total trading volume was 1,895,858 lots, and the total open interest was 699,233 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 877.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 53.0 yuan, and a drop of 5.70%. The total trading volume was 1,356,112 lots, and the total open interest was 418,835 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1446.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 91.5 yuan, and a drop of 5.95%. The total trading volume was 98,662 lots, and the total open interest was 50,876 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The fundamental situation weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2910 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3170 (-50) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coils were at 3220 (-40) yuan/ton [4]. Macro Situation - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced the introduction of ten policy measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points, a reduction of the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, a decrease in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points, and the establishment of a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" [1][5][10]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new model of real estate development and re-approving a 60 billion yuan long-term investment pilot for insurance funds [5][10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support China Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi-"stabilization fund" and introduce policy measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5][10]. - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10 to 11. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and issue a joint statement on May 12 [1][5][10]. Industry Situation - Last week, the rebar output was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 2.14 million tons, a decrease of 780,000 tons. The rebar inventory at mills was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons, and the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons. The total inventory was 6.54 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons [1][6]. - The hot-rolled coil output was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The inventory at mills was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, and the social inventory was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. The total inventory was 3.65 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The apparent demand was 3.1 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons [1][6]. Industry News - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and achieving substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the Sino-US economic and trade dialogue and consultation, stating that China has noticed the US high-level's multiple statements expressing willingness to negotiate on tariff issues with China. The US has also actively conveyed information to China through relevant channels, and China is evaluating the situation [10]. - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, including measures from the central bank, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long-process steel mills, the profits of short-process electric furnaces in East China, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the output of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the social and mill inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the total inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, and the apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils [9][11][13]

| 上游PX装置检修密集,PX的内外价差有明显的修复。由于PTA的利 | 润修复,PX的采购需求明显走强,浮动价格开始走强,国内PTA和 | PTA | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重整装置计划在5月期间检修更多装置。聚酯的超高负荷使得PTA | 的需求得到了支撑。 | | | | | | | | 乙二醇装置检修,江苏以及浙江大型装置降负,煤制装置已经出 | 農汤 | 7 -- 四 | 能源化工 | 现检修。 | | | | | PTA略有紧张的局面导致短纤的成本支撑走强,并且在高基差的情 | 短年 | 看 % | 况下,短纤表现较为强势。 | | | | | | 纯苯需求的疲弱价格继续下行。重整装置利润的下滑已经清晰而 | 明确地开始影响装置的负荷。纯苯的暴跌之后。纯苯下游需求继 | 苯乙烯 | 看零 | 续转弱。 | | | | | 市场预期利好,情绪偏强,短期内尿素行情大概率坚挺上行。 | 看多 | 尿素 | 基差追高,回补积极,短期内甲醇价格区间震荡运行。中长期甲 | 用量 | 農物 | | | | 醇现货 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant reduction of tariffs between the US and China, as announced in the joint statement from the Geneva trade talks [1][3] - Following the announcement, gold prices dropped nearly $50, while the US dollar index rose above the 101 mark [1] - Oil prices surged over 3% on the day of the announcement, indicating a positive market reaction to the tariff reductions [1] Group 2 - The US has committed to modifying tariffs on Chinese goods by suspending 24% of the tariffs for the first 90 days and retaining a 10% tariff, while also canceling additional tariffs imposed under previous executive orders [3] - China will reciprocate by suspending 24% of tariffs on US goods for the first 90 days and retaining a 10% tariff, along with canceling additional tariffs as per their announcements [3] - Both parties will establish a mechanism for ongoing consultations regarding trade relations, with representatives from both sides designated for future discussions [3]