Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Travel Plans - Only 46% of Americans plan to travel this summer, a decrease from 53% last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence [1][2] - Among those not planning to travel, 65% cite financial reasons, with 68% specifically mentioning high daily living expenses as a concern [2][3] - The percentage of respondents uncertain about their travel plans increased from 18% in 2024 to 23% this year [2] Group 2: Economic Factors Impacting Travel - Concerns over tariffs and potential economic recession are leading to a more cautious approach to summer travel among Americans [1][2] - A report from Bank of America indicates that domestic accommodations, flights, and travel activities are below previous years, reflecting a drop in consumer confidence [1][4] - Low-income households are cutting travel spending more significantly than wealthier families, who may opt for international travel instead [5] Group 3: International Travel Decline - Interest from international travelers, particularly from Canada and Western Europe, is decreasing due to U.S. trade policies and border issues [6][7] - Canadian visitors to the U.S. dropped by 12.5% in February and 18% in March, while visitors from the UK and Germany also saw a decline of approximately 30% [7] Group 4: Airline Industry Response - Airlines like United Airlines and Delta Airlines reported first-quarter earnings that met or exceeded expectations but anticipate a weaker outlook for 2025 due to declining travel demand [10] - United Airlines provided two profit forecasts for the year, one assuming a recession, predicting adjusted earnings per share between $7 and $9 [10] - There has been a reduction in flight schedules due to decreased demand, with bookings for flights originating in Europe and Canada down by 6% and 9% respectively [10]

(图片由豆包AI生成 提示词 引线燃烧中的炸弹) 当前华尔街私募行业正在面临一场完美风暴，陷入资产套牢，交易僵局持续，估值危机、流动性枯竭的困境。 而特朗普与高校的矛盾愈发激烈，常青藤巨额捐赠基金投资成为"风暴眼"，后者的投资决策通常被视为私募市场风向标。 现在，美国常青藤高校开启私募股权抛售， 一场"新次贷"危机正缓缓拉开？ 周日，据媒体援引知情人士消息，面对来自特朗普政府的压力以及对免税资格的威胁， 耶鲁大学正寻求大规模出售其私募股权投资组合，交易规模可能高达60 亿美元，相当于其414亿美元捐赠基金的15%，这是耶鲁在二级市场上首次抛售。 不仅是耶鲁，有分析称如果其免税地位仍然被取消， 哈佛大学开始出售流动性资产（如股票）也只是时间问题，也许还会发行更多债务。 15日，特朗普再发出威胁，要取消哈佛大学的免税资格，并要求该校道歉。 当地时间4月16日，美国国土安全部长克丽丝蒂·诺姆宣布取消国土安全部向哈佛大学提供的两项总额超过270万美元的拨款。 面临严峻财政挑战下，有报道称，耶鲁开始被迫出售了高达60亿美元的私募股权投资组合，截至2024年6月该基金的捐赠基金规模为414亿美元，出售的份额 约占捐赠基金 ...

信心比黄金更珍贵，提振民营企业投资信心既是当务之急，更是长远之策。"两个毫不动摇""三个没有 变"是我国基本经济制度的重要内容，支持民营经济发展是党中央的一贯方针。只要构建"政策预期稳 定、市场竞争公平、法治保障有力、创新生态完善、舆论环境友善"的立体化支撑体系，必能激活民营 企业"敢投、愿投、能投、善投"的良性循环。 稳定政策预期，持续深化政府"放管服"改革。制度环境确定性是重塑信心的基础，民营企业投资信心直 接受政策稳定性影响。国务院发展研究中心调查显示，78%的民营企业家将"政策连续性"列为投资决策 的首要考量因素。有必要建立政策稳定性评估机制，在制定产业政策时设置合理过渡期，通过"政策沙 盒"试点、企业意见征询等方式增强政企互信。推广"政策生命周期管理"模式，建立从政策制定、执行 到评估的全流程规范，探索设立民营企业政策观察员制度，切实增强政策的透明度和可预期性。政府还 应通过优化营商环境、强化产权保护等制度改革，持续降低民营企业制度成本和经营风险，释放民营企 业长期投资动能，筑牢民营经济发展根基。 制约民企投资意愿的主要因素 当前我国正处于高质量发展新阶段，民营资本作为市场活力的核心载体，其投资意愿 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The copper market is in a rebound phase, but is subject to significant systemic event shocks. Aluminum shows relatively optimistic fundamentals but faces uncertainty due to trade wars. Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be short - sold on rebounds in the medium - term. Lead prices are volatile due to tariff policies. Nickel is at the end of a rebound. Tin is in a rebound with supply - side resistance. Lithium carbonate is in a downward channel. Industrial silicon has a downward price trend. Polysilicon prices are under pressure with demand changes and cost shifts. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Sentiment**: Last week, tariff games pushed LME copper down to $8,105, causing long - position exits. US inflation indicators eased, but inflation expectations remained high, and consumer confidence was weak [2]. - **Domestic Situation**: The import TC of upstream concentrates dropped to - $30/tonne dry. Domestic copper smelter production is stable, and consumption has short - term buying interest but long - term uncertainty. SMM social inventory decreased to 250,500 tons, 148,500 tons lower than last year [2]. - **Overseas Situation**: Major investment banks lowered their copper price forecasts to $8,000 - $8,300, and the balance sheet turned to surplus. Peru, Chile, and Zambia are expected to increase copper output this year [2]. - **Price Trend**: The copper market has resistance support in supply - demand but is in a rebound. LME copper's technical resistance is expected at $9,300 - $9,500, and SHFE copper is around 76,500 - 77,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: Last week, the operating capacity decreased by 400,000 tons to 8.6 million tons. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,700 - 2,950 yuan this week, and futures can be short - sold on rebounds [2]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4.39 million tons. The output in Q1 was 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.6% [2]. - **Demand**: The domestic downstream processing industry's operating rate decreased to 62.2%. Aluminum cable demand is strong, but other sectors are weak [2]. - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased to 724,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory to 226,000 tons. Spot premiums decreased. SHFE aluminum is expected to oscillate between 19,000 - 20,000 yuan this week [2]. Zinc - **Market and Supply**: The import zinc concentrate price guidance for Q2 is $70 - 90/tonne dry. The inventory of imported zinc concentrates is at a high of 320,400 tons. The zinc ingot import window opened, and smelters' production enthusiasm is high. The short - term support is at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the medium - term price may decline [2]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: Due to tariff policies, demand weakened after the price rebound. The social inventory increased to 105,600 tons. Consumption is under pressure as the peak season nears the end. SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan in the short - term and be short - sold on rebounds in the medium - term [2]. Lead - **Market and Supply**: The lead price fluctuated due to tariff policies and a weak dollar, with the import window opening. LME lead inventory increased, and the cost side has strong support. The supply pressure is partially relieved by some smelter production cuts [2]. - **Consumption**: It is the battery consumption off - season, and the consumption side has weak support for high - price lead. SHFE lead is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,300 yuan [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market and Demand**: The nickel price declined last week, and stainless steel prices dropped 5.7%. The US tariff policy impacts demand, especially external demand [2]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Nickel inventory decreased, and stainless steel inventory increased. SHFE nickel is at the end of a rebound, and short - sellers should look for new entry opportunities [2]. Tin - **Market and Supply**: The tin price was affected by tariff policies and supply - side events. The supply is expected to be tight in Q2, but the pricing focus has shifted to demand [2]. - **Demand**: The US tariff policy on semiconductors increases demand uncertainty. The inventory is high. SHFE tin is in a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan, and short - selling is recommended [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market and Supply**: The futures price rebounded slightly after breaking through support. The supply is high, and downstream demand is limited. The market inventory increased to 131,000 tons. The price is in a downward channel [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Supply**: The price oscillated around 9,500 yuan/ton last week. The Xinjiang production cut was less than expected, and the downstream demand for polysilicon is stable, while organic silicon demand is expected to shrink. The price has further downward space [2]. Polysilicon - **Price and Supply**: The futures price dropped 4.16% last week. The production in April is about 96,000 - 105,000 tons, and the inventory is relatively high. The cost center may shift downwards [2]. - **Demand**: The photovoltaic demand is expected to decline in the second half of the year. The demand in April slightly exceeds production, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly. Attention should be paid to the support at 41,500 yuan/ton [2]. 4. Recommended Strategy - Short sell ZN2506. With the implementation of tariffs, the end of "rush - to - export" orders, and the over - consumption in Q1, the demand is expected to be weak. The supply increase in Q2 will lead to a downward pressure on zinc prices, and zinc is the main short - selling target [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the steel products industry is "sideways consolidation" [3] - The rating for the aluminum industry is "expected short - term range adjustment" [4] Report's Core View - The steel products market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. It is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner [3] - The aluminum market has a complex situation. Although the inventory decline strengthens the fundamental support, the tariff policy is uncertain, the overseas demand is suppressed, and the price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment [3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Steel Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3] - **Market Situation**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Viewpoint**: The steel products market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - **Inventory**: On April 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 744,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from Monday and 21,000 tons from last Thursday. The overall de - stocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged [3] - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1%. Some recycled aluminum plants reduced their April operating levels due to order reduction and inventory pressure, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - **Tariff Impact**: The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand and export - oriented die - casting enterprises' orders. China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal [3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4]

4月11日，美元指数继续下跌，美债收益率大幅上升。美国 富国银行分析师认为，这意味着投资者在撤 出美国市场。法国央行行长德加洛表示，美国政府的所作所为打击了人们对美元的信心。 ...

查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 光大研究一周热榜，精选"光溯" 小程序本周阅读量前十研报。 No.1 No.2 No.3 No.4 龄听光的声音,间恶光的观察/了解光的交度 关税冲突下,国内通胀如何演绎?-- 2025年3月 价格数据点评 刘星辰,高瑞东 宏观简报 2025-04-10 当前国内物价恢复动能偏弱,价格改善的领域集中在"两新"政策 范畴,而经济内生动能相对乏力。未来中美关税互搏带来的需 求侧冲击占主导,这将进一步加深工业品通缩压力、拖累企业 盈利,并从收入和预期渠道,影响消费者信心,加大国内物价 回升的难度。但我国政策储备充足，后续等待供需两端政策进 一步发力予以对冲。 长按识别小程序码进入 光大证券小程序 阅读全文 洞悉光的观察 / 聆听光的声音 / ...

瑞士3月消费者信心指数将于十分钟后公布。 ...

FDICI " 科尔尼近日发布全球 2025 年外商直接投资信心指数 （FDICI）报告。该报告调研了解投资者对未来 三年外商直接投资流动情况的看法。 2025年科尔尼外商直接投资信心指数®基于对全球领先企业高管专项调研所得原始数据展开计算。 调研时间是2025年1月。 然而，2025年3月以来，美国实施的"对等关税"机制对多个国家实行差异化税率调整，这一政策变化 引发了国际社会的广泛关注。针对这一贸易政策调整可能产生的区域性影响，特别是对亚洲经济体 的潜在作用，科尔尼全球商业政策委员会给予以下分析，分析基于的信息来源时间截至4月7日： 关税政策对亚太及东南亚地区的直接影响 特朗普总统关税政策可能对亚太地区产生显著影响。 而贸易紧张局势的预兆在FDICI报告的排 名中有所体现，如新加坡的排名从第12位降至第15位，印度从第18位降至第24位。 新加坡经济高度依赖贸易，且常处于中美之间，因此投资者可能担心贸易战对其经济的潜在影 响。 印度的优势在于人才储备（39%）和经济表现（28%），这是投资者青睐的主要原因。 美国新关税措施对亚太及东南亚地区FDI和投资者情绪的影响 鉴于关税政策的高度波动性和不确定性，目前 ...

上周150家上市公司获调研，化工品涨价行情受关注。 上周（3月24日至28日） 机构调研热情高涨，截至3月28日收盘， 共有150家上市公司披露机构调研纪要， 三花智控、劲仔食品、云天化等7家公司接受超百家机构调研。 上周内化工板块一度有亮眼表现，10余家上市公司集中接待机构调研，其中 云天化、卫星化学各自接待了 约140家机构调研，化工品涨价可能获得高度关注。 以磷产业为主业的云天化上周累计上涨超5%，周内最大涨幅达9%。 在调研中，云天化透露，近期国内磷 酸二铵市场维持稳定，受硫磺价格波动、春耕用肥以及复合肥开工率提升影响，磷酸一铵价格有所上涨。 受成本支撑以及供需偏紧影响，目前国际磷肥价格保持较高水平。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 = | F9 后复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 © ② > | 不大化 U | | 600096 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 600096.SHI云天化1 2025/03/28 收63.39 幅-2.56%(-1.66) 开64.95 高65.14 低63.04 均 .. 四 | | | -0.61 -2.56% | | | ...