2025 年 4 月 29 日 总量研究 关注三类资产 ——2025 年 5 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 要点 4 月 A 股港股市场有所回落 4月港股市场波动明显。4月受海外风险事件扰动、国内政策预期升温等因素影 响，港股市场整体走势震荡，出现较大幅度波动。截至2025年4月25日，恒生香 港35、恒生综合指数、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为 -3.3%、-4.5%、-4.9%、-5.1%、-7.6%。 A股观点：或震荡上行，关注三类资产 政策的持续支持以及中长期资金积极流入背景下， A 股市场有望震荡上行。当 前 A 股市场的估值处于 2010 年以来的均值附近，而随着政策的积极发力，中长 期资金带来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托底，A 股市场有望 震荡上行。 配置方向上，关注三类资产。方向一：稳定类资产，如高股息、黄金。稳定类资 产能够在市场面临不确定时提供确定性。方向二：产业链自主可控。在"双循环" 新发展格局和全球产业链重构的双重驱动下，国产替代相关机会也值得关注。方 向三：内需消费。海外政策可能长期处于不确定性的背景下，内需板块值得长期 关注。 港股观点：关注"哑 ...

民航刹车制动产品有望受益于航材国产化替代、民机产业链自主可控趋势。公司在民航领域主要开展民 航刹车制动等业务，当前国际民用航空刹车制动系统市场主要为国外巨头垄断，2025 年以来部分国内 航司航材进口成本陡然提升，公司有望受益于民航刹车制动产品的国产化替代趋势。此外，25 年3 月， 中国商飞在2025 年供应商大会上将C919 的2025 年年产能目标从此前公布的50 架提升至75 架，并计划 到2029 年实现年产能200 架的目标。伴随国产大飞机产能提升及产品交付，公司有望受益于我国民机制 造产业链和航材市场的整体发展。 盈利预测、估值与评级：维持25-26 年归母净利润预测1.88、3.55 亿元，新增27 年预测4.61 亿元，25-27 年对应EPS 为0.57、1.07、1.39 元，当前股价对应PE 为47x、25x、19x。公司多型起落架达到重要应用 节点，民航刹车制动产品有望受益于航材国产化替代、民机产业链自主可控趋势，维持"增持"评级。 事件：2024 年，公司实现营业收入5.38 亿元，同比-43.62%；实现归母净利润1615 万元，同 比-92.57%。2025Q1，公司实现营收2 ...

2025 年 4 月 29 日 公司研究 起落架业务有望放量，民航刹车制动产品迎国产化机遇 ——北摩高科（002985.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：2024 年，公司实现营业收入 5.38 亿元，同比-43.62%；实现归母净利润 1615 万元，同比-92.57%。2025Q1，公司实现营收 2.62 亿元，同比+9.27%； 实现归母净利润 5380 万元，同比-26.72%。 下游及行业因素致短期业绩承压，起落架业务落地收入，有望持续放量。24 年， 受客户单位总体合同签订进度等因素影响，部分已明确的采购需求因合同签订和 价格确定的时间较晚，未能形成收入。业绩端短期承压，原因包括：第一，公司 收入下滑；第二，毛利率相对较低的起落架业务占比提升，24 年，飞机刹车控 制系统及机轮、检测试验、刹车盘（副）、起落架分别实现收入 1.63 亿元、2.10 亿元、6583万元、8362万元，分别同比-60.60%、-35.98%、-65.80%、+1766.18%， 毛利率分别为 56.08%、63.46%、64.90%、13.91%；第三，行业因素影响下回 款变慢，24 年计提 ...

Group 1: Shareholder Concerns - The major shareholder has pledged 55,068,600 shares, accounting for 39.44% of their holdings, but this will not affect their control over the company [2] - The company emphasizes that shareholder returns will be considered in future dividend plans, which will be based on operational performance and funding needs [2][3] Group 2: Dividend Plan - The proposed dividend for the 2024 fiscal year is 0.70 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 43,601,234.46 CNY (before tax), pending approval at the 2024 annual general meeting [3] Group 3: Business Performance and Market Conditions - The company has diversified its overseas business across over 30 countries, reducing reliance on any single market [5][7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw performance fluctuations due to adjustments in the photovoltaic industry and delays in customer capacity expansions [5][6] Group 4: Future Growth and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end intelligent equipment manufacturing, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, and is committed to maintaining a robust operational strategy [7] - The company is actively monitoring industry trends and will adapt its strategies to leverage opportunities while addressing potential challenges [7]

Core Insights - The micro-light device industry in China is experiencing steady growth, driven by increasing demand in security monitoring, military defense, and industrial inspection sectors. The market size is projected to rise from approximately 11.265 billion yuan in 2019 to 19.27 billion yuan by 2024 [1][8]. Industry Definition and Classification - Micro-light devices are electronic devices capable of detecting, amplifying, or converting light signals under low-light conditions, widely used in night vision, monitoring, astronomical observation, and biomedical imaging [1]. Industry Chain Analysis - The micro-light device industry chain includes upstream raw material and equipment suppliers, midstream manufacturers and component integrators, and downstream applications in military, security, industrial inspection, and scientific research [3]. Development History - The industry has evolved through three stages: reliance on foreign technology in the early years, increased domestic production and innovation in the mid-stage, and a focus on technological upgrades and market expansion in recent years [5]. Current Market Analysis - The market size of the micro-light device industry is expected to grow significantly, with a notable increase in demand for micro-light imaging devices in smart city security systems and military modernization efforts [8][11]. Downstream Application Areas - The military sector dominates the application of micro-light devices, accounting for 48% of the market, followed by security monitoring at 28%, and industrial inspection at 15%. Emerging fields like autonomous driving and biomedical applications are also gaining traction [11]. Key Companies Analysis - Major players in the industry include North Night Vision Technology, Great Wall Micro-light, Wavelength Optoelectronics, and others, each focusing on different aspects of micro-light device production and innovation [13][14][16]. Future Development Trends - The industry is moving towards integration and miniaturization of micro-light devices, enhancing performance and enabling new applications. Additionally, achieving a self-controlled industry chain is crucial for reducing dependency on external technologies and improving competitiveness [18][19]. Market Outlook - Micro-light devices are expanding their applications beyond traditional security monitoring into new areas such as autonomous driving and smart healthcare, indicating a promising market future [20].

投资要点： 事件：公司发布2024 年报及2025 年一季报，1Q25 净利润超预期。2024 年公司营收36.0 亿，同比增长 38.6%；扣非归母净利润3.0 亿，同比增长94.9%；归母净利润4.0 亿，同比增长56.8%。1Q25 营收10.0 亿，同比增长29.5%；归母净利润1.6 亿，同比增长163.6%；扣非归母净利润0.9 亿，同比增长30.4%。 公司1Q25 转让联营企业上海润平的部分股权使得公司1Q25 投资收益6807 万（1Q24 为-100 万）拉动归 母净利润高增。 高端靶材驱动，靶材业务全球市场份额进一步提升。2024 年公司靶材业务实现收入23.33亿元，同比增 长39.5%，公司在全球晶圆制造溅射靶材领域的市场份额进一步扩大，在技术上和市场份额方面均跻身 全球领先行列。2024 年，公司300mm 铜锰合金靶产量大幅攀升；用于先进制程的高致密300mm 钨靶实 现稳定批量供货，高端靶材产品竞争力进一步强化；HCM钽靶和HCM钛靶成功开发并量产，异形靶材 品类实现多元化。 半导体零部件业务营收快速增长，营收占比达25%。2024 年公司半导体零部件业务实现收入8.87 亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianlu Technology reported significant growth in 2024, driven by the recovery in the global display panel industry, with a notable increase in demand for its core product, light guide plates [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue reached 654 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.67% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 206.84% to 27.116 million yuan, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses increased by 375.78% to 24.658 million yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin improved by 1.71 percentage points to 19.21% compared to 2023 [1]. Business Growth - The light guide plate business showed strong growth, with revenue increases of approximately 4 million yuan for desktop monitors, 12 million yuan for laptops, and 48 million yuan for LCD TVs compared to 2023 [3]. - The newly developed prism-type dot technology product generated approximately 41 million yuan in revenue in 2024, achieving a gross margin of about 40% [3]. Industry Trends - The overall recovery in the panel industry has positively impacted the light guide plate business, with increased shipments driven by upcoming international sports events and promotional activities [2]. - The domestic demand for TAC film is expected to rise significantly, with the localization rate of polarizer production projected to increase from around 30% in 2020 to 50% by 2025 [4]. R&D and Future Plans - The company increased its R&D expenditure to 35.0816 million yuan in 2024, a growth of approximately 20% year-on-year, to support the development of high-end optical materials [5]. - The company aims to cultivate new growth drivers by expanding its product offerings and enhancing its R&D capabilities [5]. Governance Changes - The actual controller of the company, Chen Ling, will terminate a share transfer agreement and resign from the board, which is seen as a stabilizing move for investor confidence [6]. - The governance structure is being optimized to facilitate the strategic advancement of the company, particularly in the TAC film project [6].

今天市场非常有意思，股、债、黄金的空头都挨了一顿打。 黄金 ，下午17点多的时候，国际现货黄金首次突破2940美刀，刷新历史新高； 债券 ，今天即使在小作文的行情下，也坚定地止跌企稳，全面翻红； A股 ，更不用说了，普涨行情，全场接近90%的个股上涨。 全球现在估计都没有多少黄金的空头了，长线基本是一致看多，无非就是节奏和幅度上，大家有分歧，有人激进一点，有人等着回调一点再加； 债券，前两天拿着空头的应该还是不少的，昨晚我们提到不要做空债券了，核心是性价比很差，整体判断债券可能会从下跌进入横盘的拐点，这 块不多展开了，不然这篇又得没了； A股，短期的"空头"，主要是机构资金为代表的ETF，春节之后，股票ETF已经连续9个交易日净流出，机构端不管涨跌，每天咔咔咔地卖，昨天 说过，2月至今，宽基和TMT类的ETF合计净流出接近800亿，但昨天出现了一个显著的变化—— 从单日来看，股票ETF，首次净流入了。 合计净流入12.8亿，虽然金额不多，但好歹也算是个拐点。 当然，我这里多说个小知识点，从保险的角度来讲，之前就买了不少ETF了，如果ETF上涨回本，保险有一定的动力，卖出ETF，然后通过OCI账 户买入个股，尤 ...