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天风证券晨会集萃-20250710
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-10 05:43
Group 1: Northbound Capital Analysis - In Q2 2025, Northbound capital actively increased positions in both traditional economy sectors and new tracks, with significant additions in non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, non-bank financials, and construction decoration [2][22] - Major reductions were observed in food and beverage, home appliances, and machinery sectors, indicating a shift from core assets to traditional economy and from old tracks to new tracks [2][22] - The absolute holding amounts showed significant decreases for companies like BOE A (-38.39%), Luxshare Precision (-38.29%), and Wuliangye (-30.22%) [23][24] Group 2: Dollar Outlook - The report suggests that the downtrend of the dollar is expected to continue at least until mid-2025, with recent upticks being merely a "rebound" rather than a "reversal" [3][29] - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions and a loss of attractiveness as a global reserve currency [3][27] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in Q3 2025, but maintains that the overall downtrend remains dominant [29] Group 3: Credit Bond ETF Strategy - Since May, the credit bond market has exhibited independent trends, driven by rapid growth in credit bond ETF scales and expectations for future space [4][30] - The trading activity of component bonds has significantly increased, with higher turnover rates compared to non-component bonds [30][31] - The report indicates that the valuation of component bonds may further compress, with potential trading opportunities in non-component bonds due to liquidity premiums [32] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Daikin Heavy Industries is positioned as the only supplier in the Asia-Pacific region capable of delivering offshore products to the European market, with a strong order backlog [11][35] - The company has transitioned to a DAP (Delivered at Place) product model, enhancing its service offerings and increasing order value [11][35] - Revenue projections for Daikin Heavy Industries are set at 6.51 billion, 8.40 billion, and 9.74 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates adjusted to 1.05 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively [11][36] Group 5: Chemical Industry Analysis - Xin'an Chemical is recognized as a leading player in the glyphosate and silicone markets, with expectations for improved market conditions in the silicone sector [12][20] - The company has a glyphosate production capacity of 80,000 tons and is expanding its product range under a "1+2+N" strategy [12][20] - Revenue forecasts for Xin'an Chemical are projected at 15.5 billion, 17.3 billion, and 18.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to reach 299 million, 651 million, and 802 million yuan [12][20]
利率专题:看股做债?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-10 05:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the correlation between stocks and bonds, exploring whether the "see - stock - do - bond" approach will become a new trading theme in the bond market. It analyzes the stock - bond pattern this year, historical "stock - bond seesaw" situations, and provides an outlook for the bond market. Currently, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more prominent, and the bond market may face certain disturbances, but the liquidity environment is still relatively favorable [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Year's Stock - Bond Pattern Deduction - In the first quarter, it was a "tight money + wide credit" environment, with a typical stock - bond "seesaw" effect. The stock market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 6.8% and the CSI 300 rising 6.0% from January 6 to March 17. The bond market was in shock consolidation, with short - end yields rising significantly [11][13][14]. - In the second quarter, it shifted to a "wide money + wide credit" environment, showing a stock - bond double - bull pattern. The stock market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 11.2% and the CSI 300 rising 9.7% from April 1 to June 30. The bond market had a recovery, with short - end yields falling significantly [11][18][19]. 3.2 Historical Stock - Bond "Seesaw" - **2016.10 - 2018.01: Economic Recovery + Monetary Tightening, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 15%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 134BP. The economic fundamentals were good, and the central bank tightened monetary policy, leading to a tight money supply [24][27][31]. - **2020.04 - 2020.12: Economic Repair + Monetary Neutrality, Bullish Stocks and Bearish Bonds** - The stock market rose 27%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 79BP. The economy recovered, and the central bank's monetary policy returned to normal. The supply pressure of government bonds increased, tightening the money supply [32][34][39]. - **2022.11 - 2023.02: Policy Intensification + Expectation Change, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 11%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 27BP. Policy adjustments boosted the expectation of economic recovery, and the bond market was affected by the negative feedback of wealth management redemptions [40][41][45]. - **2024.09 - 2024.10: Policy Tailwind + Institutional Profit - Taking, Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - The stock market rose 28%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 15BP. A series of policies boosted economic recovery expectations, and the central bank's monetary policy "good news was exhausted." Institutional profit - taking increased the bond market adjustment risk [47][49][55]. 3.3 Bond Market Outlook: See - Stock - Do - Bond? - The current bond market trading is crowded, while the stock's cost - performance is relatively high. The central bank's overall further easing policy may be limited in the short term, and the money supply may maintain a "low - volatility and rigid" state [5]. - The "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be more obvious, and the logic of "see - stock - do - bond" may disturb the bond market sentiment. It is advisable to moderately participate in curve steepening trading, with a strategy of "defending and squeezing spreads at the short - to - medium end + allocating on dips at the long end" [59][60][65].
工业PPI承压,关注上游价格波动
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:10
宏观日报 | 2025-07-10 工业PPI承压,关注上游价格波动 中观事件总览 生产行业:工业PPI持续承压。 1)国家统计局公布数据显示,2025年6月份,全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.1%。 其中,城市上涨0.1%,农村下降0.2%;食品价格下降0.3%,非食品价格上涨0.1%;消费品价格下降0.2%,服务价 格上涨0.5%。上半年,全国居民消费价格比上年同期下降0.1%。2025年6月份,全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降 3.6%,环比下降0.4%;工业生产者购进价格同比下降4.3%,环比下降0.7%。 服务行业:关注就业政策工具推行。 1)日前,国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步加大稳就业政策支持力度的通知》。 《通知》强调,各地各部门要强化稳就业政治责任,跟踪调度存量政策落实,不断完善稳就业的政策工具箱。强 化资金使用监管,统筹用好就业补助资金、失业保险基金等支持落实稳就业政策。加强就业影响评估,构建就业 友好型发展方式 数据来源:iFind,华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游:1)能源:国际油价回升。2)化工:PTA价格回落。 中游:1)化工:PX开工率季节性小幅回落,处三年中位。 下游:1)地产:一、二线 ...
光大期货金融期货日报-20250710
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 03:25
光大期货金融期货日报(2025 年 07 月 10 日) 光大期货金融期货日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日,A 股市场震荡收跌,Wind 全 A 下跌 0.18%,成交额 1.53 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数下跌 0.27%,中证 500 指数下跌 0.41%,沪深 300 指数下跌 | | | | 0.18%,上证 50 指数下跌 0.26%。传媒板块领涨,有色金属回调,板块轮动 | | | | 继续。近期中央财经委召开第六次会议,强调:"纵深推进全国统一大市场建 | | | | 设,基本要求是"五统一、一开放"。市场对于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和 | | | | 通胀企稳的预期颇高,但与 2016 年供给侧改个不同的是,本轮"反内卷"政 | | | | 2016 策并未配套类似于 年的增量财政政策,未来对相关题材的影响还需参 | | | 股指 | 考中央财政增量政策的转导方式和规模。海外方面,"非农"强劲背景下美联 | 震荡 | | | 储降息预期稍缓,国内小盘指数受到的提振明显减弱,未来需继续关注美国 | | ...
黄金价格波动下的理财策略:普通人如何抓住避险资产机会?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 02:56
最近逛金店时发现,柜台前总有人边看金价牌边叹气:"这金价上蹿下跳的,到底是该买还是该等等?"确实,2025年的黄金市场就像坐上了过山车——年初 还在3500美元/盎司的高位风光无限,转眼间又跌回3000美元区间震荡。 作为普通投资者,我们该如何理解这场波动?又有哪些方式能让我们在避险的同时,不被短期波动牵着鼻子走? 要把握黄金理财的底层逻辑,先得看懂当前价格波动的推手—— 全球货币体系的"暗流涌动" 近年来,各国央行持续增持黄金的势头愈发明显。 地缘政治的"避险脉冲" 从俄乌冲突到中东局势,每一次地缘摩擦都像给黄金市场注入"强心针"。 2025年特朗普政府关税政策的不确定性,更让黄金成为对冲贸易摩擦风险的"硬通货"。 不过要注意的是,这种脉冲式上涨往往伴随快速回调,就像4月金价冲高3500美元后,仅两周就回撤近10%。 美联储政策的"心跳节拍" 黄金与美元向来是"跷跷板关系"。当美联储释放降息信号时,美元走弱带动金价上涨;反之加息预期升温则压制金价。 2024年全球央行购金量突破1000吨,中国更是连续8个月增持黄金储备。 | | | | | | | | | | | | Official reserve as ...
【实用】出口退税实务操作热点问答
蓝色柳林财税室· 2025-07-10 00:48
欢迎扫描下方二维码关注: 温馨提醒:蓝色柳林财税室为非官方平台,是由编者以学习笔记形式建立的平台,所有笔记写作记录的文章及转发的法律法规仅供读者学习 参考之用,并非实际办税费的标准,欢迎交流学习,共同分享学习经验成果。文章版权归原作者所有,如有不妥,请联系删除。 欢迎扫描下方二维码关注: 我公司是一家出口企业,2024年出口一批货物,当时未及时申报出口退税,请问2025年7月份还可 以申报么? 图片 操作流程参考 向左滑动查看详情 我公司是一家出口企业,前期使用的退税银行账户已停用,换了新的银行账户。目前已申请退税, 但是新的银行账户还未及时备案,该如何操作? 为保障出口退税款能精准流入公司指定账户中,企业应当向税务局机关办理出口退(免)税备案变更,更新《出口退(免)税备案 表》中" 退税开户银行账号 "栏次内容。最后核实确保备案与存款账户账号报告中银行信息一致即可退税。 最近有纳税人咨询出口退税的操作问题,申税小微整理了出口退税实操高频问题,一起来了解一下吧~ 可以,在 完成收汇且单证备案齐全的前提下 ,申报出口退税时附报《出口货物收汇情况表》即可。 企业变更银行账户,应及时通过 新电子税局-【存款账户账号 ...
河南省积极推广应用资金流信息平台 破解“信用白户”首贷难题
He Nan Ri Bao· 2025-07-09 23:38
信阳市凯晟达汽车销售有限公司因无信贷记录、缺乏抵押物等,在乡镇市场小货车销售旺季的流动资金 需求面前犯了难。工商银行河南省分行了解情况后,依托资金流信息平台调取企业交易流水、公共缴费 信息等数据,综合分析后迅速为其发放150万元贷款,助力企业顺利扩大小货车下乡推广规模,抢占市 场先机。 资金流信息平台能够全生命周期动态反映中小微企业的经营状况、收支状况、偿债能力、履约行为,有 效畅通了金融惠企的"最后一公里"。平顶山宝运丰置业有限公司在推进绿色建筑项目时,因多项目资金 往来复杂,贷款申请资料整理困难,审批进度滞后,项目运转面临资金压力。资金流信息平台的介入打 破了僵局——中国银行河南省分行通过该平台快速获取企业近36个月资金流数据,全面精准评估企业经 营状况与偿债能力后,迅速发放4000万元贷款,有效缓解了企业资金压力。类似的案例不断涌现:浦发 银行郑州分行依托资金流信息平台为1家科技型企业发放贷款300万元,交通银行河南省分行为1家小型 企业发放普惠类贷款300万元……金融资源正通过平台高效对接经营实体需求。 "太惊喜了!从申请到拿到130多万元信用贷款,就用了3天,资金流信息平台送来'及时雨',解了我们 ...
四川科伦药业股份有限公司关于董事辞职的公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-09 20:05
登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码:002422 证券简称:科伦药业 公告编号:2025-051 四川科伦药业股份有限公司 关于董事辞职的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整,没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 四川科伦药业股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")董事会于近日收到外部董事王广基先生递交的书面辞职 报告,因需执行《中国工程院院士兼职管理办法》有关兼职管理的规定,王广基先生向公司董事会申请 辞去公司董事及董事会战略委员会委员等相关职务,上述职务原定任期至第八届董事会届满之日止。王 广基先生系任期届满前辞职,其辞职报告自送达公司董事会之日起生效。辞去上述职务后,王广基先生 将不再担任公司任何职务。 王广基先生辞去董事职务后,不会导致公司董事会成员低于法定最低人数,也不会影响公司相关工作的 正常进行。公司将依据《公司章程》等有关规定尽快补选新任董事。 截至本公告日,王广基先生未持有公司股票,不存在应当履行而未履行的承诺事项。 特此公告。 四川科伦药业股份有限公司董事会 2025年7月10日 证券代码:002422 证券简称:科伦药业 公告编号:2025-0 ...
“商业保理+信用保险”看株洲产投集团“金融服务产业”的路径探索
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-09 18:22
株洲市产业发展投资控股集团有限公司(简称"株洲产投集团")旗下的湖南国金商业保理有限公司(简 称"湖南国金保理")的实践案例表明,通过信用风险管理工具与保理业务相结合,可实现创新求变、逆 势增长的韧性发展,践行"金融服务产业"的初心。 商业保理与国内贸易信用保险分别是企业信用管理的重要融资工具和风险管理工具,天然相辅相成,双 管齐下可为企业实现盘活应收账款、转移信用风险、降低融资成本等功效,但我国鲜有二者的结合案 例。 自《关于发挥国内贸易信用保险作用助力提高内外贸一体化水平的意见》颁布以来,湖南国金保理迅速 响应政策号召,与保险公司合作为某民营企业量身定做融资方案,通过基础交易的确真、国内贸易信用 保险的加持,完成5000万元的"商业保理+信用保险"项目实践落地,将"不确定的应收账款"转化为"确定 性高的保单",有效解决了保理业务确权难、风险高等现实困难,也为客户达成了"降成本、防风险、优 报表、增营效"的目的。 □株洲产投集团 谢理、杨玲芳、颜鼎 近期多项政策出台鼓励金融赋能实体产业发展,但市场有效需求不足、资金循环不畅等矛盾仍然存在。 新的经济形势下,保理行业既面临市场需求旺盛的机遇,也面临竞争加剧、风 ...
太平洋房地产日报:苏州土拍收金15.48亿元-20250709
Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan· 2025-07-09 14:14
Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recent land auction in Suzhou, where three residential plots were sold for a total of 1.548 billion yuan, with all plots sold at the starting price [5]. - The report notes that the real estate sector has seen a slight decline in stock performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index down by 0.13% and 0.04% respectively on July 9, 2025 [3]. - The report indicates that the real estate sector's performance is mixed, with some stocks showing significant gains while others have experienced declines [4]. Market Trends - On July 9, 2025, the overall market saw declines, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index down by 0.01% [3]. - The report lists the top five gainers in the real estate sector, with Yucheng Development leading at a 10.05% increase, while the largest decliners included Nanshan Holdings with a decrease of 2.70% [4]. Company Announcements - Shanghai Jinmao Investment announced that "22 Jinmao 03" will be delisted early on July 18, 2025 [8]. - Financial Street reported the resignation of a board member due to personal reasons [8]. - Jianfa Real Estate Group has initiated the issuance of corporate bonds aimed at professional investors, with a total issuance scale not exceeding 1.75 billion yuan [8].