Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is in a complex and fragile state, facing high public debt, an aging population, external trade pressures, and potential risks in the financial system, leading to concerns about a possible debt crisis similar to Greece, although short-term risks are mitigated [1] Short-term Buffer - Japan's public debt is projected to reach 1350 trillion yen, accounting for 263% of GDP, significantly higher than Greece's 142% during its crisis [2] - 87% of Japan's public debt is held by domestic institutions, with the Bank of Japan holding 46.3%, which reduces default risk due to currency sovereignty [2] - Japan's net debt level is at 114%, with interest payments projected to be 1.7% of GDP in 2025, approximately 16.5 trillion yen, much lower than Greece's 5% to 7% during its crisis [2] Long-term Challenges - Japan faces significant challenges from an aging population, with social security spending expected to reach 42 trillion yen by 2025, constituting 36% of total government spending [3] - Tax revenue is only 18.2% of GDP, insufficient to cover total expenditures, leading to a growing fiscal deficit [3] - External economic pressures include a depreciating yen increasing import costs, particularly for energy, and potential tariffs on Japanese cars from the U.S., which could result in a revenue loss of $10 billion to $15 billion [3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan holds 575.9 trillion yen in government bonds, exceeding 100% of GDP, but rising interest rates have led to unrealized losses of about $200 billion [4] - Insurance companies have also faced losses of around $60 billion due to falling bond prices, impacting their willingness to purchase government bonds [4] - Japanese financial institutions are heavily involved in the $98 trillion "global dollar shadow debt," which could lead to significant losses if global liquidity tightens [4] Political Landscape and Fiscal Policy - The upcoming July Senate elections are critical for Japan's fiscal policy, with the ruling coalition potentially losing its majority, which could lead to increased fiscal deficits due to proposed tax cuts and subsidies [5] - The government faces a dilemma between maintaining fiscal discipline to uphold market confidence and providing subsidies to meet voter demands [5] - Increased defense spending is further constraining budget space, and any relaxation of fiscal discipline could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, reminiscent of the pre-crisis situation in Greece [5]

大家有没有发现，这一次日本还挺硬气的。就在关税这个问题上，一直在跟美国拉扯。现在，美国已经给日本发了信，说：如果你不答应我25%的关税，或 者你敢报复我，你到时候报复我多少，我就加你多少。日本今天已经发了强烈的谴责。 这段时间，日本跟美国之间一直在谈这个关税，但一直没有谈拢。按照我们很多人的印象中，日本应该会迅速光速滑轨才行。但最终，越南嫌贵了？日本没 有贵，日本一直在跟美国拉扯，一直在跟美国拉锯战。那么日本为什么这一次突然这么硬气了呢？ 发展起来之后，到了70年代的时候，石油危机让日本汽车省油这个特点在全世界大放光彩。日本汽车就迅速在全世界发展起来，带动了整个日本的经济发 展，也带动了日本本土工业的发展。到了80年代的时候，日本是百花齐放，汽车、电器这些东西在全世界都非常受欢迎。这个时候就把美国品牌打得满地找 牙。当时日本的经济是直追美国，日本的股市、楼市是全面爆发式的发展。我记得日本楼市在最巅峰的时候，当时的楼价，东京的楼价应该是200多万人民 币一平方米。那是什么时代？80年代、90年代的时候，200万一平方米。股市当时日经指数是一度突破了37,000多点，这个最高点直到去年才被打破。 其实，日本是有前 ...

最近两年，全球经J都不太平。 又是地缘冲突、又是经J数据低迷。 全球经济似乎已经到了危机的边缘。 但是，巴菲特在今年致股东的信中就告诫过我们： 不要浪费每一次的危机 为什么呢？ 因为每一次危机之后，都是一次财富转移。 而每一次财富转移，都是 我们每个普通人实现财富进阶的机会。 过去40年，我们经历了两轮的大规模财富转移。 第一次大规模财富转移，是在上世纪90年代。 90年代初期，苏东巨变、苏联解体，我们的经济也因为价格闯关受到了冲击，通胀率一度高达 20%以上。 但就在这一场经J危机之后，我们开启了第一轮的财富转移。 这一次财富转移的源头是 工业化+城市化的浪潮 。 这一轮财富转移的逻辑，其实就是把过往在土地里面的钱，拿一半放到了互联网产业里面。 工业化+城市化，带动的是财富、人口以及土地资源逐渐从农村流向城市。 所以在这个阶段，你能看到8亿农民进城、你能看到大量农田和G有土地被转化成了工业用地和城 市住宅用地，导致了土地产权的大调整。 而第一轮的财富转移，主要的方式是 以地生财 。 土地通过30年的房贷，用撬动杠杆的方式撬动了财富循坏。 钱都跑到土地和房子上面流转了，自然会把这一部分资产价格拉上去。 所以， ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have declined due to easing tensions in the Middle East, with London spot gold closing at $3,337 per ounce (down 1.9% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 772 yuan per gram (down 0.9% week-on-week) [1] - The market is closely monitoring the risk of renewed U.S. tariffs, which could boost safe-haven demand for gold if significantly increased [1] - The U.S. "Great Beautiful" Act has been signed, which will increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, maintaining a loose fiscal stance [1] Group 2: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - U.S. unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 106,000 [2] - Despite short-term resilience in employment data, the job creation structure is unhealthy, heavily reliant on government and education sectors, while small business hiring remains low [2] - The outlook suggests potential for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, supported by expectations of weakening employment and rising unemployment [2] Group 3: Future Signals for Gold ETFs - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs include trade negotiations and tariff developments, as well as the People's Bank of China's gold purchasing activities [2]

英国海上贸易行动办公室：一艘船只在也门荷台达以西51海里处遭5枚火箭榴弹袭击，受损严重，推进 系统完全失灵。该船只正遭受持续袭击，有关部门正在展开调查。 订阅红海危机动态 +订阅 ...

Group 1: US Dollar - The Federal Reserve's research report warns of uncertain economic outlook potentially leading to zero interest rate risks [1] - Fed Chair candidate Walsh suggests interest rates should be lowered further [1] Group 2: Major Non-USD Currencies - ECB council member Centeno states that the timing and extent of further rate cuts are difficult to determine [2] - Fitch predicts Japan's debt trajectory will rise again by the end of this century [2] - ECB indicates that risks to financial stability in the Eurozone have increased due to rising global geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Japanese Prime Minister expresses regret over US tariff information and emphasizes ongoing negotiations [2] - South Korean Trade Minister states that a three-week extension of tariff suspension is insufficient and negotiations must accelerate [2] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa announces agreement with US Commerce Secretary to actively participate in trade talks, prioritizing national interests [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly keeps the benchmark interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait for more information to confirm sustainable inflation at 2.5% [2] - RBA Governor Bullock mentions a cautious and gradual easing stance is appropriate, with confidence in future rate cuts [2] - Australian Treasurer notes that the RBA's decision to maintain rates was not expected by millions of Australians or the market, clarifying future inflation and rate trajectories [2] Group 3: Other Developments - Emerging market ETFs see inflows for the sixth consecutive week, with China receiving the largest inflow [3] - The World Bank reports that Syria is facing a severe liquidity crisis due to cash shortages and broader disruptions in currency circulation [3] - Moody's maintains Israel's Baa1 rating while warning that conflict with Iran will increase fiscal pressure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive momentum with major indices rising, particularly driven by technology and consumer sectors, while some sectors faced declines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.78% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.29% [1] - The National Enterprises Index gained 0.84% [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - Cryptocurrency stocks continued to rise, with Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) surging over 16% [1] - The photovoltaic sector saw gains, with Flat Glass Group (06865.HK) and GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) both rising over 9% [1] - Apple-related stocks rebounded, with Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) and Q Tech (01478.HK) both increasing over 4% [1] - New consumption, education, chips, and gold sectors also experienced early gains [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Movements - Jinyong Investment (01328.HK) surged over 150% following a strategic partnership with AnchorX to explore stablecoin applications [1] - The Red Sea crisis concept stocks weakened, with Hai Feng International (01308.HK) dropping nearly 4% [1] - Logistics, environmental protection, and electric power sectors faced early declines [1]

金十数据7月8日讯，随着美国总统特朗普将其关税截止日期改为8月1日，并调整了对日本、韩国等国设 定的关税税率，亚洲多个出口依赖型经济体虽获得了更多谈判时间，但几乎没有得到什么缓解。这一延 期使多国继续处于美国政府关税打击的焦点之中，而使谈判更加复杂的是，美国可能对汽车、芯片和医 药等关键行业产品单独征收行业性关税，而这些行业正是亚洲多个国家的经济支柱。Senjin Capital首席 执行官兼首席信息官James Halse表示："如果这些关税持续存在，很可能会对向美国出口的日本企业， 尤其是汽车制造商，造成重大不利影响。这样的负面效应很可能会沿着供应链向上传导，波及那些虽然 本身不向美国出口、但为这些企业供货的日本供应商。" 机构：关税"暂缓期"延后缓解有限 多国陷入特朗普关税危机 ...

特朗普的佛州之行结束后，白宫办公厅副主任斯蒂芬·米勒在媒体平台发布煽动性言论，称所有共和党 州长都应效仿德桑蒂斯。他表示："我们希望把这种方法推广到每一个共和党州。当然民主党州也应该 这样做，可惜他们偏爱非法移民、憎恶美国人民。"米勒还鼓动每一位"红州州长"马上联系国土安全 部，与联邦政府合作修建拘留设施，清除掉"非法移民和罪犯"。美联社透露，佛州的共和党人甚至已经 开始借助这座新建设施进行政治筹款，出售印有拘留中心名称的T恤衫、啤酒保温套等。 连日来，"鳄鱼恶魔岛"拘留中心以及其他类似方案遭到多方痛批，反对者认为这是一场典型的"政治噱 头"，担忧此类场所会转变成永久性的存在。美国国土安全部前发言人霍华德批评道，"鳄鱼恶魔 岛"是"德桑蒂斯建在沼泽地的小关塔那摩"，堪称"人性残忍与政治作秀的低劣结合"，一个"鳄鱼把守的 大帐篷"解决不了移民问题。霍华德主张为移民提供临时保护身份，以及符合人道标准的基础设施，而 不是斥资4.5亿美元年运营费进行一场政治表演。据了解，该类设施的绝大部分资金来源于联邦紧急事 务管理局（FEMA），而该机构的主要职能是预防和应对自然灾害。 【环球时报特约记者 刘皓然】当地时间7月1日 ...

金十数据7月8日讯，据两位知情人士向AXIOS网站透露，以色列正为伊朗可能重启核计划做准备，其 高级官员认为美国总统特朗普可能批准以军发动新一轮打击。特朗普和以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在当地时 间周一晚于白宫共进晚餐时，伊朗核危机的前进道路将是一个主要话题。以方称，以色列总理内塔尼亚 胡希望就未来美伊核谈判及可能触发军事行动的"红线"与美方达成共识。以总理高级顾问罗恩·德尔默 在闭门简报中透露，他近期华盛顿之行获得明确信号——在某些情境下，特朗普政府将支持以色列对伊 朗实施新打击。消息人士指出，触发情形包括：伊朗试图转移福尔多、纳坦兹及伊斯法罕受损设施内的 高浓缩铀，以及德黑兰着手重建核计划（尤其是铀浓缩设施）。 消息人士：以方研判特朗普或为对伊新军事行动开绿灯 ...