Core Insights - The central urban work conference held on July 14-15 emphasizes the transition of urbanization in China from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency in existing urban areas [1][4][5] Group 1: Urban Development Transition - The meeting marks a significant shift in urban development philosophy, moving from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing urban quality and efficiency [1][4] - The urbanization rate of China's permanent population increased from 53.1% in 2012 to an expected 67% in 2024, indicating a substantial shift towards urban living [3] - The conference outlines the need for a modern urban system that supports coordinated development among large, medium, and small cities, promoting urban-rural integration [6] Group 2: Key Urban Development Tasks - Seven key tasks were identified, including optimizing the modern urban system, building innovative cities, and enhancing livability [1][6] - The focus on high-quality urban renewal is highlighted, with policies aimed at improving urban appearance and livability while generating new industrial demand [8][10] - The importance of constructing green, low-carbon cities aligns with the growing emphasis on sustainable urban development [11] Group 3: Housing and Real Estate Policies - The meeting reiterates the continuation of real estate regulation policies, emphasizing the need for a new development model in the housing sector [9][10] - Urban renewal initiatives, particularly in transforming urban villages and dilapidated housing, are expected to stimulate significant investment, estimated in the tens of trillions [10] - The real estate sector's role as a pillar industry remains crucial, with increased focus on second-hand housing transactions and urban renewal driving consumption in related industries [10] Group 4: Governance and Citizen Engagement - The conference stresses the need for innovative urban governance models, enhancing citizen participation in urban management [12] - Emphasis is placed on building resilient cities through improved infrastructure safety and cultural heritage preservation [11][12] - The call for smart city development indicates a shift towards integrating technology in urban management to address citizen needs effectively [11]

如今，大部分投资者都坚定地认为市场要下跌。那么，这种"觉得要跌"的想法从何而来呢？投机大拿表 示，如果是被套的投资者，根本不会对市场抱有绝对的悲观态度，因为短时间内也难以解套，跌一点涨 一点对你来说并无太大影响。而现在大部分投资者都感觉市场要跌，这种普遍的悲观情绪反而说明：要 么已经回本，要么已经小有盈利。从这个角度来看，当大部分人对市场产生质疑时，往往意味着市场已 经进入强势阶段。 7月15日，和讯投顾投机大拿在今日市场分析中指出，多数股民已明显感受到一种情况：越是觉得市场 要下跌，市场却越是不跌。甚至早在一个月前，许多股民就预感市场会下跌，但市场却始终没有下跌。 回顾一个月前，许多专家也曾预测市场将向下变盘，但最终也未能实现。那么，这种情况究竟说明市场 处于强势状态，还是正在酝酿一场大的下跌呢？其实，从投资者的心态中就可窥见端倪。 再从盘面结构来看，银行板块近期依然保持了以往的常规涨幅，甚至其上涨的连续性更强了。以工行或 建行等大型银行为例，其上涨的连续性明显增强。那么，当这些银行股在未上涨时市值是多少？如今涨 了一倍后市值又是多少？市值翻倍后仍能保持上涨，所需的推动资金显然比之前更多。从这一现象来 看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The central urban work conference indicates that urbanization in China is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, focusing on improving existing urban areas rather than large-scale expansion [1] Group 1: Urban Development Transition - Urban development is shifting from large-scale incremental expansion to enhancing the quality and efficiency of existing urban stock [1] - The conference emphasizes the need to deeply understand and proactively adapt to changes in the situation regarding urban development [1] Group 2: Changes in Urban Development Approach - There is a call to transform urban development concepts to be more people-oriented [1] - The development methods should shift towards being more intensive and efficient [1] - The driving forces behind urban development should focus on unique characteristics of each city [1] - The emphasis of urban work should transition towards governance investment [1] - Urban work methods should prioritize overall coordination [1]

2025 年 07 月 15 日 锌：偏承压运行 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22250 | -0.58% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2738 | -1.40% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 136140 | 6783 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 11463 | -1997 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 94177 | -13455 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 194167 | 1614 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 30 | -10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -0.36 | -5.04 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | -40 | -10 | 进口提单溢价（美 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The capital market has shown a "barbell" structure since 2023, with large-cap and small-cap companies performing well, while mid-cap companies have been relatively flat. Large-cap stocks benefit from state-owned enterprises and insurance funds, while small-cap stocks are driven by on-market funds and quantitative private equity strategies [1][2][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The A-shares and H-shares have performed more evenly, influenced by the southbound capital flow into Hong Kong stocks [1][5]. - **Investment Shifts**: The decline in deposit rates has led residents to seek higher certainty investment products, such as participating whole life insurance, creating a positive feedback loop through bank channels [1][6]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The market outlook remains optimistic, particularly for the financial sector. The valuation recovery of large-cap stocks led by insurance funds is expected to continue, while small-cap stocks are reaching new highs, although some pullbacks are inevitable [1][7]. - **Incremental Capital**: Recent incremental capital is limited, with insurance wealth management contributing approximately 1 trillion annually. However, after September, there will be a shift towards dividend insurance, prompting insurance companies to increase equity investments, with an estimated 30%-40% of new funds directed towards high-growth assets, bringing in 300-400 billion [1][8]. Additional Important Content - **Asset Allocation Changes**: The new accounting standards require insurance companies to increase standardized asset allocation, which is expected to promote stock market development [4]. - **Bank Wealth Management Trends**: The average yield on bank wealth management products is around 2.5%, with a gradual shift towards multi-asset strategies, including equities, convertible bonds, REITs, and alternative assets, expected to bring in around 100 billion annually [1][8]. - **Public Fund and Securities Company Trends**: Public funds have seen stable active equity scales, while FOF products have significantly increased due to their focus on controlling drawdowns and absolute returns [9]. Securities companies are leveraging off-market derivatives like DCN to meet investor demand for high-yield fixed-income products [10][11]. - **Regulatory Impact on Quantitative Funds**: New regulations have led to a significant increase in the issuance of neutral strategy products by quantitative funds, which are primarily linked to small-cap stocks [12][13]. - **Future of Off-Market Derivatives**: The off-market derivatives business is expected to have a positive impact on the capital market, although it carries risks, particularly in volatile conditions [15][16]. Potential Sources of Incremental Capital - Future incremental capital may come from insurance funds, bank wealth management, FOFs, and overseas funds, especially in a low-risk-free rate environment and with the potential for RMB appreciation [17].

投资者静待美通胀数据，标普500指数勉强收涨；比特币新高后回落；原油跌3%。 中国6月社融增量4.2万亿元，新增人民币贷款2.24万亿元，M2-M1剪刀差缩小。 中国6月按美元计出口同比增长5.8%，进口增长1.1%；稀土出口创2009年来最高，铁矿石进口创 年内新高，钢铁二季度出口创纪录。 欧盟准备对720亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税。 特朗普以"严厉"关税威胁俄罗斯50天内达成俄乌协议，威胁将对俄罗斯征收100%关税。 下一代擎天柱要来了？马斯克：年底会有"史诗级震撼"的演示。 Meta将投数千亿美元建全球最大数据中心，正讨论是否放弃开源、转向闭源。 提醒：中国周二将公布GDP等重磅数据，美国周二将公布6月CPI数据。 ...

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 0 million and 5 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -5 million and 0 million yuan [1][2] - In the same period last year, the company reported a total profit of -193.53 million yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -191.57 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - The main reasons for the expected profit turnaround include improved operational efficiency, enhanced collaboration across industries, and exploration of new business models [2] - The cinema segment has achieved profitability due to refined management and increased non-box office revenue, alongside a strong growth in the film box office market [2] - The gaming segment has accelerated new game product development and strengthened distribution capabilities, although revenue from existing game products has declined [2] Group 3 - The company is exploring new business opportunities in short dramas, event activities, performing arts, and exhibition services, including co-hosting the KOD 2025 Global Street Dance Championship [2] - The company plans to leverage the advantages of its controlling shareholder and its own industry synergies to integrate resources and explore new business development models [2]

#数据 中国6月金融数据：M2货币供应年率8.3%，预期8.1%，前值7.9%；M1年率4.6%，预期2.8%，前值2.3%；M0年率12%，前值12.1%。前6个月社会融资规模增量为22.83万亿元（6月新增社会融资4.2万亿），同比多4.74万亿元；人民币贷款增加12.74万亿元（6月新增人民币贷款2.36万亿），同比多2796亿元。 https://t.co/WClyM0o8DB ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since June, the market has gradually changed from a stock market to an incremental market, and the index is likely to continue to rise [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties showed a general upward trend, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 performing relatively strongly. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties remained in the futures discount mode. The basis of the main contracts of stock index futures, IH closed at -5.17, IF at -21.41, IC at -4.08, and IM at -141.3 [3] - The A-share market continued to break through and rise last week. Although there was a phenomenon of rising and then falling back on Friday, the trading volume remained at a relatively high level. Most industries achieved growth, and the financial sector contributed significantly to the market's rise, showing signs of accelerated capital inflow [3] Comprehensive Analysis - Looking ahead to next week, the market has changed from a stock market to an incremental market since June, but some sectors have entered a high-level shock stage. The manufacturing sector at a low level is expected to be promoted by incremental funds [4] - The policy level attaches more importance to market stability, the market expectation is less sensitive to the impact of the trade war, and the focus on industry prosperity during the interim report season has increased. The trading volume remains at a high level, the scope of industry rise has expanded, and the index is likely to break through the previous high [5]

Core Insights - The commercial vehicle market in China is navigating through policy-driven changes and energy transitions, with a focus on balancing "stock competition" and "incremental expansion" to achieve "high-end survival" [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 539,160 units, marking a 6.9% increase year-on-year, with China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation (CNHTC) leading the market with a 27.6% share [1][2] - CNHTC's sales in June reached 24,625 units, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 29.6%, achieving five consecutive months of growth [1][2] Market Performance - The heavy truck segment is experiencing a rapid transformation, driven by the scrapping and replacement of old operational vehicles in Shandong Province and the increasing penetration of new energy commercial vehicles [2] - The market is focusing on addressing pain points in logistics efficiency and urban distribution scenarios, with CNHTC's growth attributed to its strategic alignment with policy benefits and market needs [2] Product Development - CNHTC has launched multiple benchmark products in the first half of 2025, enhancing its full-spectrum product matrix to meet diverse operational scenarios [3] - The new HOWO TS7 dump truck and the Shandeka G7H gas tractor are highlighted for their superior performance and energy efficiency, catering to high-intensity operational environments [3] Brand and Market Positioning - CNHTC is actively showcasing its brand strength and technological capabilities at major international events, enhancing its visibility and reputation in the global market [9][11] - The company has successfully delivered 154 high-performance engineering vehicles to the Philippines, underscoring its growing influence and recognition in overseas markets [13] Customer Service and Community Engagement - CNHTC emphasizes a "family-like" service approach, providing comprehensive support and emergency services during natural disasters, thereby enhancing its brand loyalty and customer satisfaction [15][17] - The "Family Home" service system aims to improve the quality of life for truck drivers, offering various free amenities to create a supportive industry ecosystem [17] Strategic Outlook - CNHTC's leadership in heavy truck sales reflects a broader industry shift from "scale competition" to "value competition," driven by policies for old vehicle replacement and the acceleration of new energy transitions [19]