Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market and the broader economic context, highlighting the impact of disappointing macroeconomic data on the US dollar and the potential for silver prices to rise or fall based on upcoming economic reports and technical levels. Economic Context - The US dollar is under pressure following disappointing macroeconomic data, with silver prices stabilizing around $34.50 as traders are hesitant to push prices outside this range [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, while the market is closely watching for any pause in the ECB's year-long easing cycle [3] - Recent US economic data indicates a contraction in service sector activity for May, marking the first decline in nearly a year, raising concerns about economic growth and inflation [3] Silver Market Analysis - Current spot silver price is $34.76 per ounce, with various other silver trading metrics provided [2] - Silver is showing a bullish trend technically, having risen over 5% recently, and is poised to challenge the $35.00 level, which could lead to a test of the 13-year high of $37.49 [4] - If silver closes below the peak of $34.58 from March 28, it may decline to $34.00, with further support at $33.69 [5] Employment Data Expectations - Investors are awaiting the US May non-farm payroll report, with expectations of 130,000 new jobs, a decrease from April's 177,000, and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2% [4] - A poor performance in the upcoming employment data could exert additional downward pressure on the US dollar [4]

Group 1 - The CBO report indicates that Trump's global tariff plan will reduce the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years, but will simultaneously slow economic growth, increase inflation, and weaken household purchasing power [1] - The report predicts that tariffs will lead to an average annual inflation rate increase of 0.4 percentage points from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The CBO's analysis assumes that the tariff policies announced by the Trump administration will be implemented long-term, despite previous court rulings questioning the legality of these tariffs [1] Group 2 - The CBO concludes that the $2.8 trillion deficit reduction will come at the cost of reduced household wealth and a contraction in the overall economy, estimating a permanent decrease in the annual GDP growth rate of 0.06 percentage points [1] - The OECD's global economic outlook report predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.5% by 2026 [2] - The CBO emphasizes significant uncertainty in its estimates due to the potential for the Trump administration to adjust tariff policies at any time [2]

【资讯导读】 ·特朗普税改与支出法案或使美国预算赤字增加逾2.4万亿美元 ·美联储褐皮书揭示美国经济活动放缓 ·加拿大央行维持利率不变暗示未来可能降息 ·美国私营部门就业增长显著放缓非制造业PMI跌至萎缩区间 ·欧洲央行正式批准保加利亚最早于2026年1月1日使用欧元的申请，使其成为欧元区第21个成员国。 ·加拿大央行连续第二次决定保持利率在2.75%不变，符合市场预期。然而，央行也指出，若经济疲软状 况持续、通胀水平保持温和，则不排除未来采取降息措施的可能性。 ·美国私营部门5月份的就业增长速度大幅减缓，仅新增3.7万个就业岗位，这是自2023年3月以来的最低 水平。劳动力市场的这种疲软迹象表明，经济复苏可能正在失去动力。 ·美国非制造业采购经理人指数PMI降至49.9，是自2024年6月以来首次跌破50点大关，标志着服务业活 动进入萎缩状态。随着需求突然下降以及价格压力上升，新一轮关税的影响正在全美经济范围内扩散。 【市场资讯】 ·美联储褐皮书显示，自上一份报告以来，美国经济活动在最近几周内略有下滑。这主要归因于关税措 施及高度不确定性对经济造成的连锁反应。报告显示，受访者普遍预期未来成本和价格将加速上 ...

Group 1 - U.S. corporate hiring activity has slowed to its lowest level in nearly two years, with job cuts observed in sectors such as business services, education, and healthcare, indicating a continued weakening in labor demand [1][2] - According to ADP Research, private sector employment increased by only 37,000 jobs last month, falling short of all economists' predictions in a survey, marking the second consecutive month of significant underperformance [1][2] - The current job market is under dual pressure: a noticeable slowdown in hiring speed and an extended time for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, with economists expecting more signs of cooling in the labor market in the coming months [2][3] Group 2 - Following the data release, stock index futures and U.S. Treasury yields fell, while President Trump reiterated calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates in response to the current situation [3][4] - Despite the hiring slowdown, wage growth remains strong, with a 7% increase for job switchers and a 4.5% increase for retained employees, according to the ADP report, which covers over 25 million U.S. private sector employees [4] - The upcoming U.S. government employment report for May is expected to show a slowdown in non-farm employment growth compared to the strong performance in April, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable [4]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, indicating a weakening growth momentum and increasing risks in the global economy [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Barriers and Economic Policies - Trade barriers and economic policy uncertainty are identified as primary reasons for the global economic slowdown, with increased tariffs and trade restrictions disrupting supply chains and diminishing business and consumer confidence [3][4]. - The report highlights a notable slowdown in growth among North American economies, particularly the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, due to trade tensions impacting the largest economies [3][4]. - The U.S. inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 3.2% and 2.8%, respectively, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could lead to continued tight monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Protectionism - The rise of protectionism and trade barriers is harming global supply chain efficiency, increasing business costs, and ultimately affecting consumer prices, leading to constrained economic vitality and reduced global trade and investment flows [4][6]. - The fragmentation of trade is undermining the stability of the multilateral trading system, with historical evidence suggesting that rising protectionism hampers economic growth and leads to a "zero-sum game" scenario [6][7]. Group 3: Call for Cooperation - OECD Chief Economist Pereira emphasizes the necessity for countries to engage in sincere negotiations to avoid further trade fragmentation, advocating for multilateral cooperation and trade liberalization as essential for sustainable global economic growth [9][10]. - The report warns that the ongoing trade barriers could exacerbate international tensions and complicate global political dynamics, highlighting the need for stable and rule-based economic development rather than short-term protective measures [7][10].

日本央行行长植田和男：尽管经济增长放缓，但日本可能仍将维持工资与物价同步上涨的机制。 ...

例如，来自欧洲的投资者若将资本利得、股息或美国国债的利息汇回本国，可能需额外缴纳税款。而欧 洲此前对美国科技巨头征收的数字服务税，正是特朗普政府长期不满的焦点，被视为"非关税壁垒"的典 型代表。 盛宝银行全球宏观策略主管John Hardy指出："这种针对外国持有美国资产的新动作，可能会抑制全球 盈余资本流入美国资本市场。对于正在寻找美资替代投资标的的主要市场参与者而言，这无疑是美元的 负面因素。" 今年以来，尽管欧元区经济疲软，欧洲央行已两次降息且可能在本周四再次行动，但欧元仍兑美元上涨 11%；日元上涨9%，尽管其短期投资几乎无利可图；英镑也上涨8%，尽管英国央行也进行了降息，经 济放缓趋势明显。 美国总统特朗普迅速推出的新一轮关税政策正在对全球经济产生深远影响，不仅导致美国进口放缓，也 加剧了全球增长放缓的担忧，并重新点燃了通胀隐忧。与此同时，这一系列政策也对美元构成了巨大压 力，根据道琼斯市场数据显示，美元今年前五个月录得有史以来最差的年初表现。 智通财经APP获悉，数据显示，美元指数年初至今已下跌8.4%，逼近自2022年春季以来的最低水平。该 指数衡量美元兑六种主要货币的整体表现。分析人士指出，美 ...

金十数据6月2日讯，摩根士丹利预计，受降息和经济增长放缓的影响，美元将在明年年中跌至新冠疫情 期间的水平。该行策略师MatthewHornbach等人在报告中预测称，一项常用的美元衡量指标将从当前水 平下跌约9%。随着贸易动荡对美元的压力持续，这将加剧美元近期的跌势。 大摩：美国经济增长放缓预期下美元将贬值9% ...

美国政府不顾后果，执意挑起关税战，其负面影响不断加深，全球企业已深受其害。 路透社对多国56家知名企业的报告进行统计后发现，美国的关税政策对这些企业造成的损失超过340亿 美元。 路透社统计了标普500指数中的32家公司、欧洲斯托克600指数中的3家公司和日本日经225指数中的21家 公司，估算它们的损失，得出了损失超过340亿美元这一数据。 数据显示美关税政策拖累美国就业 美国劳工部5月29日公布数据显示，截至5月24日的一周，美国首次申请失业救济人数环比增加1.4万， 至24万，高于预期的23万。 同一天，美国商务部经济分析局公布数据显示，今年第一季度美国企业利润下滑1181亿美元，降幅为 2020年第四季度以来最大。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） 报道称，苹果、福特、保时捷和索尼等公司已撤回或大幅下调营收预期，绝大多数企业表示，美国反复 无常的贸易政策让他们无法准确估算成本。 国际劳工组织预计2025年就业增长放缓 国际劳工组织5月28日发布了《世界就业和社会展望（2025年5月更新版）》报告。报告指出，地缘政治 紧张局势、国际贸易混乱等因素将导致就业增长放缓。 报告预计，2025年全球将新增5300万 ...

金十数据5月29日讯，油价上涨，但回吐了盘中早些时候的部分涨幅。周三美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗 普总统的全面"解放日"关税不合法后，布伦特原油早盘一度攀升至65.50美元的高位。这一裁决提振了 市场的风险偏好情绪，缓解了对全球经济增长放缓的担忧。白宫表示将对该裁决提出上诉。此外，美国 可能对俄罗斯实施新制裁，威胁减少石油出口，这也推动油价小幅走高。不过，欧佩克+可能在7月增 产的预期在一定程度上抵消了这一影响。 美法院裁定关税非法推升油价后回落 ...