美联储博斯蒂克：如果就业市场开始恶化，失业率上升或企业计划裁员，这一情况将不得不引起关注。 ...

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]

Core Insights - The data released today indicates a positive economic outlook, with the actual unemployment rate at 4.1%, lower than the expected rise to 4.3% [1] - The number of individuals applying for unemployment benefits is significantly below expectations, suggesting a stronger labor market than anticipated [1] Economic Indicators - Actual unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, compared to the forecasted 4.3% [1] - The number of unemployment benefit applications is lower than expected, indicating a robust job market [1]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its decision to cut interest rates in July [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000 and slightly above the revised figure of 144,000 for May [3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% [3] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth [3] - The average workweek slightly declined to 34.2 hours, reflecting changes in labor demand [3] - In contrast, the ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [4] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury yields rose following the employment report, with the 2-year yield increasing over 10 basis points to 3.894%, and the 10-year yield rising over 6 basis points to 4.356% [1] - In Europe, bond yields fell as investors bought European government bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 3.512% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 8.6 basis points to 2.971% [5]

Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]

数据公布后，美元指数向上触及97，日内涨0.39%。现货黄金短线下挫19美元，下破3320美元/盎司。 非农数据公布后，利率期货交易员放弃了对7月美联储降息的押注；目前市场预计9月美联储降息的概率约为80%，低于非农就业报告公布前的98%。 周四，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国非农数据好于预期，失业率意外下滑。 美国6月非农就业人口录得14.7万人，高于预期的11万人，前值由13.9万人修正为14.4万人。美国6月失业率录得4.1%，低于预期的4.3%，低于前值的 4.20%。 6月平均每小时工资月率录得0.2%，低于预期的0.30%，前值0.40%；平均每小时工资年率录得3.7%，低于预期的3.90%，前值由3.90%修正为3.8%。 Anstey表示，这并不是一份迫切要求美联储立即降息的就业报告。特朗普政府无疑会很快强调，与经济学家的预测相比，这是就业增长连续第四次超过预 期。经济团队不断指出，各项指标已被证明好于普遍预期——通胀温和，就业增长稳健。 失业率下降可能与移民政策有关。分析师Jonnelle Marte指出，移民劳动力的规模在6月份继续萎缩。6月份有3260万外国出生的工人，低于3月份的3 ...

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to a six-week low of 233,000, down by 4,000 from the previous week, which is below economists' expectations of 240,000 [1][1][1] - The total number of continuing jobless claims remained high at 1.964 million, marking the highest level since the fall of 2021 [1][1][1]

金十数据7月3日讯，金融博客零对冲：虽然非农就业数据占据了劳动力市场的主要新闻，但美国续请失 业救济人数上升仍然值得注意。上周初请失业金人数从23.7万人降至23.3万人，从9个月高点回落。续请 失业救济人数为196.4万人，为2021年11月以来的最高水平。所谓的Deep Tristate（华盛顿特区、弗吉尼 亚州、马里兰州）地区主导了持续申请人数的增长，达到了自2021年12月以来的最高水平。 零对冲：美国续请失业金人数升高 达到2021年11月以来高位 ...

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：现在有一个罕见的现象：2023年到2024年间，失业率几乎上涨了一个百 分点，之后趋于稳定。过去一年，失业率一直在4%和4.2%之间波动。按未四舍五入的计算，失业率在6 月降至4.12%，低于5月的4.24%。 ...

美国劳工统计局今日报告称，6月份非农就业人数增加了147000人，失业率几乎持平，为4.1%。州政府 和医疗保健行业出现了就业增长，而联邦政府则继续裁员。 因经济原因而从事兼职工作的人员在6月份人数为450万人，变化不大。这些人本希望获得全职工作，但 因工时减少或无法找到全职岗位而只能做兼职。 6月份不在劳动力市场但当前有就业意愿的人数为600万人，基本与上月持平。由于这部分人员在调查前 4周未积极寻找工作或无法上岗，因此未被计入失业人口。 在不在劳动力市场但有就业意愿的人群中，边缘性劳动力（在调查前12个月曾找过工作、调查前4周内 未找过工作，但期望且有条件就业）6月份增加了234000人，达到180万人。被归为"失望劳动者"的边缘 性劳动力子集（认为无法找到工作的人）在6月份增加了256 000人，达到637 000人。 本新闻稿公布了两项月度调查的统计数据。家庭调查按人口特征衡量劳动力状况，包括失业情况；机构 调查则按行业衡量非农就业人数、工作时长和收入。有关这两项调查所使用的概念和统计方法的详细信 息，请参阅技术说明。 家庭调查数据 6月份失业率为4.1%，失业人数为700万人，两项数据与上月变化不大 ...