Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing explosive growth in trading volume, driven by a weakening dollar and strong investor sentiment, with a target of reaching the key resistance level of 1.20 USD. Group 1: Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - On June 26, the euro's trading volume in the forex options market exceeded 56 billion USD, significantly higher than the second-ranked Japanese yen at 13 billion USD and the third-ranked Canadian dollar [1][7]. - Investors are focusing on bullish euro options, with the volume of contracts betting on the euro surpassing 1.20 USD increasing over the past week, indicating new funds are flowing into bullish euro strategies [1][7]. - The bullish sentiment for the euro has reached its highest level since early 2024, with hedge funds reducing their bearish positions to the lowest since April [4][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Euro Strength - The euro's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, which alleviated geopolitical tensions, and ongoing expectations of an impending rate cut by the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the dollar [5][10]. - Germany's historic large-scale fiscal spending plan has renewed investor confidence in the European economy, which has struggled with stagnation for years [5][10]. - The nearing end of the European Central Bank's tightening cycle contrasts with the potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, further benefiting the euro [5][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts believe the euro has strong momentum, with some suggesting it could become the largest economy outside the U.S. if trade barriers are raised [5][10]. - The euro is expected to continue benefiting from ongoing dollar pessimism, as traditional safe-haven support for the dollar diminishes [5][10]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, some strategists warn that the euro's short-term fair value may be overstretched, requiring significant catalysts such as U.S. tariffs, a collapse in U.S. Treasury yields, or aggressive Fed rate cuts to reach 1.20 USD [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to maintain interest rates for a period of time and does not rule out the possibility of further rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The current interest rate level of the ECB is considered to be in a neutral position, which is viewed positively [1] - The inflation risks are currently seen as two-sided, indicating potential volatility in future economic conditions [1]

欧洲央行管委诺特：我们不能排除欧洲央行再次降息的可能性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to maintain interest rates at their current levels for an extended period [1] Group 1 - ECB Governing Council member Knot suggests that the current economic conditions may warrant a prolonged period of stable interest rates [1]

欧洲央行管委诺特：欧洲央行利率目前处于中性水平是一个不错的选择。 ...

智通财经6月27日电，欧洲央行管委诺特表示，不排除欧洲央行再次降息的可能性。 ...

美国经济在第一季度收缩幅度大于此前预期之后仍保持弹性。5月耐用品订单增长16.4%，每周申请失 业救济人数温和增长23.6万人，第一季度GDP收缩0.5%，而不是之前预计的0.2%。在美联储独立性受到 威胁之际，美元保持了隔夜的下行轨迹。《华尔街日报》报道称，特朗普可能会比平时更早任命鲍威尔 主席的继任者，以削弱目前的鹰派立场。Bannockburn的Marc Chandler写道："如此直接地影响美联储的 企图，不会受到投资者的欢迎。" 裕信银行投资研究所的安德烈亚斯·里斯在一次网络研讨会上表示，预计欧洲央行将在当前周期内再降 息一次。据裕信银行经济学家预计，9月降息25个基点将使存款利率降至1.75%，"基本上（降息）就结 束了。"货币市场目前认为，下一次降息更有可能在10月。里斯表示，欧洲经济增长料将"相当疲软"但 不会大幅放缓，通胀率可能横向波动，徘徊在2%左右。 周五（6月27日）亚市盘中，COMEX黄金短线维持下跌走势，截至目前报3323.50美元/盎司，跌幅 0.54%，今日开盘于3341.30美元/盎司，最高上探3341.40美元/盎司，最低触及3323.00美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 【CO ...

裕信银行：欧洲央行预计将在9月完成降息周期 金十数据6月26日讯，裕信银行投资研究所的安德烈亚斯·里斯在一次网络研讨会上表示，预计欧洲央行 将在当前周期内再降息一次。据裕信银行经济学家预计，9月降息25个基点将使存款利率降至 1.75%，"基本上（降息）就结束了。"货币市场目前认为，下一次降息更有可能在10月。里斯表示，欧 洲经济增长料将"相当疲软"但不会大幅放缓，通胀率可能横向波动，徘徊在2%左右。 ...

金十数据6月26日讯，荷兰合作银行外汇策略师简·福勒在报告中指出，欧元汇率的上涨可能促使欧洲央 行进一步降息。尽管欧洲央行已暗示其降息周期即将结束，但欧元汇率的进一步大幅上涨可能促使决策 者倾向于实施更多降息措施。欧元走强也对欧洲企业构成逆风，这些企业正面临"与关税相关的不确定 性"的压力。荷兰合作银行目前预计欧元兑美元EUR/USD将在12个月内升至1.20，此前预计欧元将在18 个月内达到这一水平。 机构：欧元走强可能促使欧洲央行进一步降息 欧元/美元 ...

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年 6 月26日的欧元/美元深入分析。 地缘政治和贸易仍然是焦点 该货币对的上涨似乎受到最近宣布的中东停火协议的进一步乐观情绪的支撑，该协议是由特朗普总统促成的。 尽管该协议看起来脆弱，但似乎足以重新点燃风险相关领域的资金流入，最终促成了单一货币的近期涨幅。 在贸易方面，投资者表现出谨慎，因为他们关注即将到来的7月8日美国关税暂停的最后期限。与此同时，欧盟（EU）积极追求贸易协议，主要集中在与 伦敦的谈判上。 美联储-欧洲央行货币政策分歧依然存在 ·欧元/美元在周三接近1.1640区域的年度高点。 ·美国美元在收益率混合和美联储谨慎的情况下小幅回落。 ·鲍威尔主席在第二次国会证词中保持谨慎的语气。 周三，欧元（EUR）对美元（USD）保持了良好的建设性立场，促使欧元/美元连续第五天上涨，接近年初至今的高点约1.1640。 该货币对的上涨动能持续，因投资者评估中东地区缓解的紧张局势以及鲍威尔主席在国会第二次证词中的谨慎言论。 仍然围绕美联储，值得回顾的是，鲍威尔主席告知国会议员，较高的关税可能会在今夏开始推高通胀，这将是美联储考虑潜在降息的关键时刻。 此外，在 ...