Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Israel's consumer prices increased by 3.6% year-on-year in April, surpassing the expected growth of 3.1% [1] - Month-on-month, consumer prices rose by 1.1%, which is higher than the anticipated increase of 0.6% [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the shift in policy focus from merely stimulating consumption to increasing residents' income, indicating a significant change in economic strategy [6][8] - It highlights that wages for management positions have been raised, with an increase from 11,000 yuan to 12,000 yuan per month, reflecting a broader trend of wage growth within the system [6] - The article notes that the minimum basic pension for rural residents will increase from 123 yuan to 143 yuan per month by 2025, impacting approximately 85 million rural insured elderly [6] Group 2 - The consumer price index (CPI) has shown a weak performance, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.2% in 2023, which is significantly below the target set for 2024 [8] - The article emphasizes that merely stimulating consumption through policies has proven insufficient to meet planned targets, leading to the decision to focus on directly increasing residents' income starting in 2025 [8][10] - It discusses the dual approach to increasing residents' income, which includes market-driven distribution led by enterprises and fiscal-driven social distribution, highlighting the importance of both strategies [10] Group 3 - The article raises concerns about the sustainability of economic growth, questioning whether GDP growth is genuinely beneficial or merely a result of increasing debt levels [11] - It suggests that the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing residents' income will depend on the efficiency of the economy and the tools available for implementation [10][11] - The need for a fair social distribution system is emphasized as a key component of improving residents' income and overall economic health [10]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in U.S. long-term Treasury yields has led to an increase in the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index showing fluctuations throughout the trading day [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Dollar Index - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6.5 basis points, closing at 4.538%, providing support for the dollar [3]. - The dollar index rose by 0.03%, closing at 101.037 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that while recent inflation data shows progress towards the 2% target, the outlook remains uncertain due to potential price increases from import tariffs [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that April's mild consumer price inflation may not reflect the impact of rising import tariffs, indicating a need for more data to assess price and economic trends [3]. Group 3: Currency Movements and Trade Negotiations - Market rumors suggested that the U.S. is seeking a weaker dollar in trade negotiations, but this was denied by Bloomberg citing anonymous sources [4]. - The Japanese yen saw the largest gain against the dollar among G10 currencies, supported by potential discussions on exchange rates in trade talks and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor [4]. - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was at 1.1178 USD, the pound at 1.3264 USD, and the dollar was at 146.72 JPY, among other currency values [4].

申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250514 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 交易咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | 原油 | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 479.5 | 470.5 | 61.96 | 61.53 | 66.60 | 66.10 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 482.3 | 472.6 | 61.06 | 60.58 | 64.99 | 64.55 | | | 涨跌 | -2.8 | -2.1 | 0.90 | 0.95 | 1.61 | 1.55 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.58% | -0.44% | 1.47% | 1.57% | 2.48% | 2.40% | | | 成交量 | 77,046 | 52,260 | 290,296 | 223,289 | 417,955 | 270,581 | | | ...

编辑：熊思怡 彭博社指出，尽管通胀数据略好于预期，但有经济学家表示，受关税影响，进口商品价格开始上涨只 是"时间问题"。 路透社援引美国Annex财富管理公司首席经济学家布莱恩·雅各布森(Brian Jacobsen)分析称，尽管通胀数 据好于预期，但有指标显示，关税已将物价推高。 雅各布森认为，为关税冲突降温是好事，因为关税对价格的影响将很快渗透到消费品价格，"与中国贸 易关系重置，或许意味着美联储可以恢复如常，并在今年晚些时候逐步恢复降息。" 来源：中国新闻网 耶鲁大学预算实验室：美国平均关税水平仍为1934年来最高 中新网5月14日电(张乃月)近期中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，市场反应积极。不过，据美国消费 者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)报道，耶鲁大学预算实验室估测，即便考虑到近期美国的关税调整，美国对 进口产品征收的平均关税税率仍高达17.8%，是1934年以来的最高水平。 分析指出，这一税率，相较于特朗普第二任期前的平均有效关税税率水平提高了15.4个百分点。报告 称，现行的关税政策预计将在"短期内"给普通美国家庭增加2800美元的成本。 此外，美国劳工部当地时间13日发布的数据显示，美国4月份消费 ...

美国通胀保持稳定，市场预期后续将因关税上涨 金十数据5月13日讯，美国4月份通胀保持稳定，经济学家警告称，这可能是特朗普发动的贸易战可能导 致消费者价格飙升之前的最后一段平静期。美国2月CPI同比上涨2.3%，略低于上月的年涨幅。核心CPI 同比上升2.8%，与3月的同比升幅一致。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在政策会议后表示，关税因素已推升短期通胀预期，并强调当前处于政策观察期。据 CME FedWatch工具显示，6月降息25个基点的概率已从月初的34%降至15%，反映市场对宽松政策的押 注显著回落。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 昨日国际银价承压低开低走，盘中接连跌破布林线中轨及30日均线两道关键技术支撑，空头动能显著增 强。从技术指标来看，MACD快慢线死叉向下发散，绿柱动能持续放大，KDJ随机指标同步呈现空头排 列，显示短期下行趋势仍未见明显反转信号。 今日周二（5月13日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于33.08一线上方，今日开盘于32.59美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报33.00美元/盎司，上涨1.24%，最高触及33.08元/盎司，最低下探32.51美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 根据预测，美国4月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增幅或维持2.4%，与3月持平；剔除波动较大的食品和 能源后的核心CPI同比涨幅预计持稳于2.8%。按月度环比测算，CPI及核心CPI均可能上升0.3%。 分析师提示需重点监测"超级核心通胀"（核心服务扣除住房）指标。该指标 ...

智通财经5月9日电，巴西4月消费者价格指数环比上涨0.43%，预期增长0.42%。 ...

俄罗斯统计局：今年迄今消费者价格上涨了3.22%。 ...

凤凰网财经讯 5月2日，美股三大指数持续走高，截至发稿，道指涨1.02%，纳指涨1.21%，标普500涨 1.15%， 苹果跌近4%，CEO库克估计关税将增加9亿美元成本。英伟达涨近2%，美国出口规定后，英伟达重启 定制化芯片研发工作。 热门中概股普涨，三倍做多富时中国ETF一度涨超10%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2.7%，阿里巴巴涨近 4%，京东涨4%，小鹏汽车涨超6.5%，金山云涨超7%。 全球要闻 特朗普重申：美联储应该降低利率 美国总统特朗普再次在社交媒体上表示，美国没有通货膨胀，美联储应该降低利率。他还表示，"汽油 刚刚跌破每加仑1.98美元，为多年来的最低水平，杂货价格下降，能源价格下降，关税带来了数十亿美 元的收入"。 美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来 中方回应：正在评估 巴菲特的20句名言！听进去的都赚钱了 今年5月3日，数万投资人将和往年一样，在"股神"巴菲特的故乡——美国内布拉斯加州小城奥马哈，也 即伯克希尔哈撒韦的总部所在地参加年度股东大会。届时，"股神"将和与会者畅谈，并接受来自分析 师、股东、媒体等的提问。 美国豁免加拿大和墨西哥汽车零部件25%关税 美国海关和边境保护局当地时间5月1 ...