Group 1 - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, projecting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, which is approximately 60% higher than JPMorgan's expectations [1] - In April, OPEC+ cautiously began to increase oil production, with eight member countries collectively increasing output by only 25,000 barrels per day, significantly below the planned 138,000 barrels per day [1] - Saudi Arabia has emphasized compliance with production quotas, expressing disappointment over member countries' cheating, which has led to a decision to accelerate supply growth in May and June to three times the originally planned amount [1] Group 2 - The increase in OPEC production coincides with a significant drop in oil prices due to tariffs imposed by Trump, with Brent crude futures falling below $60 per barrel before recovering to around $66 [2] - Iraq's average daily production in April was 3.964 million barrels, partially fulfilling its commitment to compensate for previous quota violations, while Kazakhstan's production decreased by 41,000 barrels to 1.823 million barrels, still exceeding its quota by approximately 400,000 barrels [2] - OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries in 2025 to an increase of about 800,000 barrels per day, down from the previous estimate of 900,000 barrels per day, indicating a slowdown in supply growth due to falling oil prices [3]

原油日报 | 2025-05-14 需求预期持续改善，油价延续涨势 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.72美元，收于每桶63.67美元，涨幅为2.78%；7月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.67美元，收于每桶66.63美元，涨幅为2.57%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.70%，报491元/ 桶。 2、美国通胀降温，4月CPI同比2.3%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。核心CPI同比增长2.8%，为自2021年春季通胀 爆发以来的最低速度。住房成本依旧是通胀关键，机票、二手车、食品价格出现下降。尽管如此，关税的影响仍 未完全显现，企业可能在消化库存。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、沙特承诺向美国投资6000亿美元，覆盖军火、科技、波音飞机、基建和数据中心。白宫称，美国与沙特达成有 史以来两国最大规模的商业协议，含谷歌、DataVolt、甲骨文等公司的800亿美元尖端科技投资、DataVolt的200亿 美元AI数据中心和能源基建投资、48亿美元波音飞机采购、接近1420亿美元的史上最高金额军火销售协议等。沙 特王储称，沙特将努力推动在美国投资额达到1万亿美元。（来源： ...

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have rebounded significantly since hitting new lows on May 5, with Brent crude reaching a high of $66.4 per barrel and WTI crude hitting $63.61 per barrel, marking increases of 13.50% and 15.03% respectively [1][2]. Price Movement - As of May 12, Brent and WTI crude oil prices reached their highest levels since the beginning of May, following a notable rebound from the lows recorded on May 5 [1][2]. - By May 13, prices adjusted slightly, with Brent at $65.01 per barrel and WTI at $62.03 per barrel, indicating a volatile market despite recent gains [2]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in oil prices is attributed to two main factors: a marginal easing of macroeconomic expectations and the U.S. Treasury's addition of entities related to Iranian oil to its sanctions list, raising supply concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has been influenced by the perception that the negative impact of OPEC+'s accelerated production increases has been priced in, alongside expectations of improved macroeconomic conditions [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The Brent crude futures curve has exhibited a "smile" shape, indicating a divergence in near-term and long-term market expectations, with near-term prices supported by low inventories and seasonal demand, while long-term prices are pressured by anticipated increases in OPEC+ production [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market is characterized by a "strong reality, weak expectation" scenario, where immediate supply-demand dynamics are favorable, but future expectations are clouded by potential oversupply [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate that oil prices may face downward pressure as OPEC+ begins to increase production significantly in May, amidst a backdrop of weak demand [4][5]. - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that oil prices will likely remain within a defined range, influenced by OPEC+ production policies and market sentiment, with limited upside potential unless significant positive developments occur in macroeconomic or geopolitical contexts [5].

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨0.93美元，收于每桶61.95美元，涨幅 为1.52%；7月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.05美元，收于每桶64.96美元，涨幅为1.64%。 美国普莱斯期货集团高级市场分析师菲尔·弗林表示，中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成的成果让市场摆脱对贸 易战的悲观并拥抱新的图景。中美贸易交易立即提高了对油气的需求预期。 欧佩克+决定在5月和6月加快退出自愿减产的决定和美国与主要贸易伙伴贸易关系紧张刺激国际油价在 近期显著走低，纽约油价在4日跌至4年来低点。 外汇经纪商嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen表示，美国总统特朗普本周会访问中东，石油、贸易、军 售、以色列等问题有望成为会谈焦点，尤其值得关注对国际油价的影响。 中美两国10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识，同意大幅 降低双边关税水平。 市场分析师弗拉基米尔·泽尔诺夫（Vladimir Zernov）在当日早些时候表示，由于交易商聚焦于中美经贸 谈判结果，纽约油价测试新的高点。 如果纽约油价升至每桶63美元上方，将会进一步靠近每桶64.42美 元的50日平均水平。 ...

沙特阿美高管：2025年石油需求将"稳定且持续增长"。 ...

数据还显示，上周美国炼厂日均原油加工量为1610万桶，环比下降0.7万桶；上周美国炼厂平均开工率 为89%，高于前一周的88.6%；上周美国日均汽油供应量为871.7万桶，环比减少38.1万桶；上周美国日 均原油净进口量为205万桶，环比显著增加67.3万桶。 新华财经纽约5月7日电（记者刘亚南） 由于投资者继续对石油需求前景感到担忧，国际油价7日冲高回 落，震荡收跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.02美元，收于每桶58.07美元，跌幅 为1.73%；7月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.03美元，收于每桶61.12美元，跌幅为1.66%。 美国上周汽油库存意外增加，加剧了市场对石油需求前景的担忧。美国能源信息局在当日公布的数据显 示，上周美国商业原油库存量为4.384亿桶，环比下降200万桶。但同期，美国汽油库存却环比增加20万 桶。 瑞穗证券美国公司能源期货业务负责人鲍勃·约格尔（Bob Yawger)提示，这是几周以来，汽油消费首次 出现利空。 值得注意的是，上周美国库欣地区商业原油库存量为2500万桶，环比减少70万桶；上周美国战略原油储 备规模为3.99亿桶，环比 ...

美国能源信息署（EIA）：关于关税税率及其对经济和石油需求增长影响的不确定性增加，导致短期油 价波动加剧。 ...

瑞银集团：预计随着美国驾车季节的到来以及美国中东地区气温升高，未来几个月全球石油需求将出现 进一步的季节性增长。 ...

能源情报集团记者Amena Bakr：料欧佩克+将提到各方进一步承诺遵守减产，并表示需求前景乐观。 ...