行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 1、生猪板块：行业盈利空间持续压缩，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1）猪价低位震荡&仔猪价格继续回落。截至6 月21 日，全国生猪均价 14.37 元/kg，较上周末下跌 0.28%（智农通），本周行业自繁自养盈利约 92 元/ 头，较前期大幅缩窄（5 月头均盈利160 元/头）；本周7kg 仔猪和50kg 二元母猪价格为443 元/头和 1619 元/头，仔猪价格较高点回落超200 元/头。 供应端，本周出栏均重为 128.28kg（环比-0.42%），150kg 以上生猪出栏占比为4.74%（环比-0.08pct），近期降重趋势明确但绝对体重仍处历史同期高 位。需求端，上周价格跌至年内低点后，多数屠企低价分割意愿增强，本周屠宰样本日均宰杀量环比+1.96%。但短期来看，高温期季节性消费淡季， 拖累整体鲜品走货难度增加。近期天气炎热或加速前期大猪出栏，猪价或呈季节性走弱趋势，行业盈利空间持续压缩，或加强去化逻辑。 2）重视生猪板块低估值、预期差！重视优秀企业的盈利能力！在 25 年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续产能去化容易程度及复产难度或再度提 升，产能有望波 ...

Core Insights - The event showcased the world's first ground-visible space biological intelligent cabin developed by the Wuhan Space Agriculture Research Institute, along with innovative space agriculture products such as a 1,090-pound space pumpkin and space eggplant trees [1][7] Group 1: Space Breeding Technology - Space breeding, also known as space mutation breeding, involves sending crop seeds or seedlings to space to induce mutations through unique conditions such as high vacuum, cosmic radiation, and magnetic fields, leading to the development of new crop varieties [3] - The intelligent cabin utilizes various automatic control technologies to manage light, temperature, humidity, pressure, and artificial gravity, allowing real-time monitoring of plant growth from the ground [3][5] Group 2: Future Applications and Efficiency - The ultimate goal of the intelligent cabin is to achieve a full lifecycle cultivation of plants in space, from seed germination to maturity [5] - The intelligent cabin is expected to address multiple industry pain points, significantly enhance breeding efficiency, and reduce the breeding cycle compared to traditional methods that rely on Shenzhou spacecraft [5] - The research institute has successfully cultivated new varieties of staple crops, vegetables, and flowers, with plans to expand applications to aquaculture and biopharmaceuticals [5][7] Group 3: Achievements and Impact - The space pumpkin, weighing 1,090 pounds, was cultivated from seeds that underwent a space journey and three generations of selection, demonstrating the potential of space breeding [7] - The institute has also developed new varieties of rice, corn, rapeseed, and wheat, contributing to farmers' income and rural revitalization efforts across various regions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent enhancement of Beijing's urban greening, particularly through the extensive planting of various flower species, has become a popular topic among netizens, showcasing the city's commitment to beautification and environmental improvement [1][3]. Group 1: Urban Greening Initiatives - Beijing has cultivated over 3,000 varieties of roses, with more than 30,000 acres dedicated to landscape roses, and over 300 kilometers of rose rings planted along urban ring roads [3]. - The city has introduced a diverse range of plant species, creating a seasonal visual experience characterized by "spring new colors, summer lush greens, autumn vibrant hues, and winter silver and black" [5][7]. Group 2: Flower Breeding and Innovation - The success of Beijing's urban greening is supported by advancements in domestic flower breeding, with new varieties such as compact petunias being developed to withstand local climate conditions [8][14]. - The Beijing Garden and Greening Research Institute has independently bred over 20 new varieties of the "one-string red" flower over nearly 40 years, utilizing hybridization techniques that typically require four to five years for new variety development [12][14]. - The number of independently bred flower varieties has increased by 25% compared to the previous year, with a total of 84 varieties now holding independent intellectual property rights [14].

Group 1 - The article highlights the publication of six research papers by Chinese scholars in the prestigious journal Cell, covering various topics in biology and evolution [2] - The studies include the reconstruction of the ant phylogenetic tree, octopus sensory perception of environmental microbes, skin microbiomes of Indigenous Malaysians, new strategies for disease-resistant crop breeding, digital reconstruction of full embryos, and insights into the appearance of Denisovans [2][4][9][14][19][24][29] Group 2 - The study on ants integrated genomic data from 163 ant species, clarifying their complex phylogenetic relationships and tracing their common ancestor back to approximately 157 million years ago during the Jurassic period [6] - The research on octopuses explored how environmental microbiomes influence their sensory receptors and behavior, providing new evidence for co-evolution between microbes and animals [11] - The investigation into Indigenous Malaysians' skin microbiomes revealed unique microbial communities and insights into chronic fungal infections, potentially informing treatment strategies [16] - The crop breeding study demonstrated that co-delivery of immune receptors can enhance disease resistance across diverse plant species, offering new strategies for sustainable agriculture [21] - The digital reconstruction of mouse embryos at single-cell resolution provided significant insights into early organogenesis and a unique platform for studying development and disease [26] - The research on Denisovans successfully extracted ancient DNA from dental calculus, linking it to a nearly complete skull fossil and enhancing understanding of human evolutionary history in East Asia [30]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancements in rice breeding led by Qian Qian, a prominent figure in agricultural research, particularly in the development of a new ultra-dwarf rice variety named "Xiao Wei," which achieved a yield of 410 kg per mu in field trials [1][2]. Group 1: Research and Development Achievements - Qian Qian and his research team have dedicated over 40 years to decoding the "genetic code" of rice, leading to the creation of nearly 50 new varieties and over 50 patents [2]. - The team has published 343 SCI papers and developed a comprehensive framework for the scientific classification and resource utilization of wild rice species [2]. - The establishment of the world's largest and most robust wild rice germplasm resource protection platform is a key achievement, providing essential genetic resources for rice breeding [3]. Group 2: Technological Integration and Future Plans - The integration of traditional breeding methods with molecular biology and advanced technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence is transforming rice breeding into a more efficient and precise process [2]. - Plans for vertical farming techniques are underway, aiming to further increase rice yields by optimizing space utilization [1]. Group 3: Community Engagement and Recognition - Qian Qian actively collaborates with local communities to promote agricultural modernization and rural development through innovative projects [3]. - He has been recognized as a "National Model of Dedication and Contribution," underscoring his commitment to addressing global food security challenges [3].

Core Insights - The research team led by academician Wan Jianmin has identified a new gene, ELD1, that specifically regulates the heading date of rice under long-day conditions, which is crucial for breeding high-yield, high-quality, and widely adaptable rice varieties [1][2] - The study reveals that the ELD1 gene can significantly promote heading without causing obvious agronomic defects, indicating its potential for molecular breeding applications [2] Group 1: Gene Discovery and Mechanism - The ELD1 gene regulates the mRNA splicing of the core biological clock gene OsCCA1, affecting the heading date of rice [1] - The research indicates that shorter light exposure leads to faster heading and earlier maturity in rice [1] - ELD1 interacts with OsNKAP protein and multiple core mRNA splicing factors, influencing the splicing of thousands of genes across the genome [1] Group 2: Implications for Breeding - The study provides a new mechanism for understanding how light signals regulate the heading date of rice, which is significant for molecular breeding [2] - The team utilized base editing technology to create targeted mutations in key amino acids of ELD1, resulting in new early-heading germplasm for high-quality rice varieties such as Ningjing 7 and Ningjing 4 [2] - This research offers important genetic resources and theoretical support for addressing the late maturity issues in hybrid rice breeding [2]

Core Insights - The Henan provincial government has issued the "Central Plains Agricultural Valley High-Quality Development Three-Year Action Plan (2025-2027)" to promote high-quality development in the seed industry and establish a national and international agricultural technology innovation hub [1][2] Group 1: Development Goals - By 2027, the Central Plains Agricultural Valley aims to achieve significant advancements in modern seed industry development, with enhanced resource aggregation, optimized innovation ecosystems, and expanded industry scale [1] - The plan includes the establishment of over 10 national-level innovation platforms and more than 15 branch offices (R&D centers) outside the province [1] Group 2: Talent and Innovation - The initiative targets the cultivation of over 3 academicians, more than 50 leading talents, and over 200 high-level "dual-skilled" talents in the seed industry, along with training over 1,000 graduate students [1] - Major breakthroughs are expected in breeding parent creation, molecular design breeding, and AI breeding, with the goal of developing over 200 new varieties with independent intellectual property rights and achieving a transformation rate of over 80% [1] Group 3: Industry Scale and Collaboration - The plan aims to attract over 10 seed companies from the international top 30 and domestic top 20, with a total seed industry output value exceeding 15 billion yuan [2] - The Central Plains Agricultural Valley will enhance its international seed industry conference's influence and integrate deeply into the "Belt and Road" initiative, planning to establish over 5 overseas R&D bases (centers) and international breeding innovation platforms [2]

据悉，农业农村部已将"中油杂501"列入2024年全国农业主导品种，2025年国家农作物优良品种推广目 录。2024年秋播以来，以"中油杂501"为核心的油菜"双密双高"技术模式在长江全流域推广200万亩以 上。今年夏收以来在江苏、湖北、四川等地的油菜高产竞赛活动中，"中油杂501"表现亮眼，充分展现 了农业农村部主导品种的丰产潜力及配套密植技术的显著效果，为促进油菜大面积单产提升、提高国家 油料自给率、促进农民增收和产业增效提供了有力的科技支撑。 据介绍，"中油杂501"还具有极强的耐旱、耐盐碱双重能力，在陕西蒲城半干旱区中度盐碱地，经陕西 省农作物学会组织田间评价，一次性机械实收亩产达312.23公斤，创中度盐碱地油菜单产纪录，在2024 年冬至2025年春陕西降水偏少约80%的极端条件下，较当地平均水平翻了一番，且种植该品种后土壤盐 含量降至约3.2‰，相比周边冬闲区土壤盐含量降低20%，实现了盐碱地改良与油料高产的双赢。 新京报讯据中国农业科学院网站消息，日前，在全国油菜大面积单产提升高产典型培育推介活动现场江 苏省东台市新曹农场，经江苏省农业技术推广总站组织专家现场评价验收，200亩连片种植的油菜新 ...

资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -19% 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 相关报告 《农林牧渔行业月报：指数表现强势，宠物出 口数据维持快速增长》 2025-05-20 《农林牧渔行业月报：鸡价止跌反弹，《加快 建设农业强国规划》发布》 2025-04-11 《农林牧渔行业月报：畜禽价格偏弱运行，宠 物食品出口数据迎来"开门红"》 2025-03-25 联系人：李智 投资要点： 风险提示：原料价格、畜禽价格下跌，动物疫病，食品安全问题，生 物育种商业化政策不及预期等。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 周期掘金，向新而行 ——农林牧渔行业 2025 年度中期策略 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 06 月 18 日 替代的加深，相关上市公司市场份额仍有较大增长空间。 第1页 / 共31页 农林牧渔 证券研究报告-行业半年度策 略 盈利预测和投资评级 公司简称 24EPS 25EPS 25PE 评级 牧原 ...

眼下，全国小麦迎来夏收高峰期。位于山东东营垦利区永安镇前七村的盐碱地，经过太空诱变育成的小 麦新品种航麦802正在进行机收实测。测产结果显示，当地采用新品种和新技术体系的百亩示范田中， 小麦亩产达到554.6公斤。 几乎在同一时间，位于河北沧州黄骅市的李子札村，也在进行机收测产。在没有人工浇灌、全部依靠雨 水的盐碱地上，土壤含盐量为3.39‰，航麦802示范田实收亩产达到496.6公斤。 盐碱地，未经开发的广阔空间 黄河奔流入海，携带着滚滚泥沙和土壤，在入海口积壤成陆，在那里，每年都有新的陆地出现。然而， 这片最"年轻"的土地中，含有比平常土地更多的盐碱，想要在这里种植作物、生产人们赖以生存的粮 食，需要艰难而漫长的努力。 6月10日，东营垦利区永安镇前七村，黄色的麦浪铺满海边的土地，收割机在麦田中来回穿梭，一群科 研人员和农场主人一起站在田边，等待着这场新的收获。 就在机收实测中，这里种植的耐盐碱小麦新品种，普遍得到了预料之外的收成。尽管今年的气候并不算 好，春季的寒冷和夏季的高温交替，但对新品种的影响，远没有预想中那么大。 耐盐碱是作物抗逆性的一种。刘录祥介绍，在全国耐盐碱小麦品种攻关中，选择出来的新品种 ...