·欧元/美元继续走弱，跌破1.1600。 今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年7月16日的欧元/美元深入分析。 ·由于6月份美国CPI数据强劲，美元获得额外动力。 ·德国和欧元区的ZEW经济信心有所改善。 欧元（EUR）在周二的反转交易中进一步下滑，接近四周低点，拖累欧元/美元连续第五天走低，回到1.1600以下区域。 贸易紧张局势加剧 白宫表示将在8月1日之前暂停任何新的关税决定，但贸易冲突加剧的阴影已经显现。 近期美国对欧盟商品征收30%关税的威胁，加上上周对日本和韩国进口征收25%关税以及对铜征收50%关税的公告，重新点燃了对更广泛对抗的担忧，最 终提升了美元的价值。 央行意见不一 美联储（Fed）6月会议的会议纪要显示，委员会内部存在分歧：一些政策制定者希望立即降息，而另一些则呼吁在关税驱动的通胀影响变得更清晰之前保 持谨慎。 技术指标已转向看跌模式：相对强弱指数（RSI）已跌破48，表明进一步下行的潜力，而平均方向指数（ADX）约为27，表明健康的、有信心的趋势。 欧元/美元日线图 事实上，期货市场继续暗示今年晚些时候可能会放松政策，前提是价格压力被证明是暂时的。谈到价格，美国CP ...

标准物质是开展化学、生物等检测活动必不可少的"标尺"和"砝码"，是国家计量能力建设的关键要素。 记者今天了解到，近日，市场监管总局决定在上海市浦东新区、奉贤区先行先试的基础上进一步扩大试 点范围，在上海市、四川省、湖南省和内蒙古自治区布局开展国家二级标准物质行政审批改革试点，将 国家二级标准物质行政审批权由市场监管总局下放至上述省级市场监管部门。下放行政审批权，可大幅 缩短审批时限，及时响应市场和产业发展对标准物质的需求，助力企业加快产品迭代和上市速度，降低 企业制度性交易成本，激发民营企业市场活力，营造"敢干、敢闯、敢投"的浓厚氛围，助力打造市场 化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境。同时，将吸引更多上下游企业加入标准物质产业链，大力提升先进 科技成果向现实计量实力的转化效率，不断提高我国标准物质自主可控水平，满足各领域精准测量活动 对高端标准物质的需求，筑牢经济社会高质量发展的计量根基。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of measures by the Weihai Municipal Government to standardize administrative inspections related to enterprises, aiming to optimize the business environment and protect the interests of companies [3][4]. Group 1: Overview of Measures - The measures are part of a broader initiative to regulate administrative inspections of enterprises, reflecting the government's commitment to improving the legal business environment [3]. - The document titled "Several Measures for Strictly Regulating Administrative Inspections Related to Enterprises" was issued on July 2, 2025, and consists of eight parts and 31 tasks [4][5]. Group 2: Specific Measures - The first part emphasizes the legal review and confirmation of administrative inspection subjects, requiring local authorities to create a list of inspection items based on provincial guidelines [4]. - The second part mandates the establishment of an annual inspection plan and a record-keeping system for inspections, ensuring that plans are approved by relevant government bodies [5]. - The third part focuses on standardizing inspection procedures, including internal approvals and documentation of the entire inspection process [5]. Group 3: Optimization and Technology - The fourth part advocates for optimizing inspection methods, including a collaborative mechanism for cross-departmental inspections and the promotion of non-intrusive regulatory practices [5]. - The fifth part aims to enhance the information technology level of inspections by utilizing an online platform to streamline inspection processes and reduce the frequency of on-site checks [6]. Group 4: Guidance and Support - The sixth part proposes the establishment of an administrative guidance mechanism for enterprises, encouraging feedback and compliance through the publication of typical case studies [6]. - The seventh part emphasizes the need for a robust supervision and coordination mechanism for administrative law enforcement, ensuring that enterprises have clear channels for expressing grievances [6]. - The eighth part highlights the importance of work guarantees, including training for enforcement personnel and public awareness campaigns to foster a cooperative environment for policy implementation [6].

以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 国民经略 . 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 本文来自微信公众号： 国民经略 （ID：guominjinglve） ，作者：凯风，原文标题：《撤县并省！ 猛砸铁饭碗，开始了》，头图来自：视觉中国 行政区划改革，涉及重重利益调整，放在任何一个地方都历来不易。 越南靠着"8年战略准备，8个月快速实施"成功落地，速度之快、力度之大、动作之猛令外界瞠目。 撤县并省，全面落地。 一夜之间，越南全国63个省市精简为34个省级单位，628个县级行政机构被整体撤销，1万多个乡级 单位合并为3321个。 这场被越南称为"重整江山"的史上最大行政改革，自去年10月启动，仅8个月时间就已尘埃落定。 受此影响，越南短期将裁撤近10万个"铁饭碗"，长期则有25万个行政、事业编制受波及，而越南只 有1亿人口。 不只是行政改革，今年以来， 《越南废除计划生育》、 推行15年免费义务教育；与美国率先达成关 税协议，同时宣布加入金砖伙伴国…… 动作一个接一个，给人以"时不我待"的紧迫感，越南为何这么急？ 一、撤县并省，力度有多大？ 经过这轮改革，越南县级行政单位不复存在，地方行政体系从"省-县-乡"三级制 ...

针对违规异地执法和趋利性执法行为，省司法厅联合省通信管理局向公众普发涉企行政执法问题线 索征集短信，建立行政执法监督线索研判机制，向全省罚没收入增长排名前十的地区印发《关于对行政 执法领域罚没收入情况进行自查并作出说明的函》，推动建立行政执法和执法监督一体化平台。目前， 全省共收到相关问题线索11条，已整改9条。 7月11日，记者从省司法厅获悉：自4月开展规范涉企行政执法专项行动以来，陕西各地各部门累计 排查问题线索1135条，各级政府行政执法协调监督局直查问题线索739件，制发监督意见书、督办函329 份，要求整改问题1065个。 "严格规范涉企行政执法，是提高依法行政水平、优化营商环境、稳定市场预期的重要一环。"省司 法厅相关负责人表示，专项行动聚焦企业反映强烈的突出问题"动真碰硬"，努力为企业健康发展提供良 好法治环境。 针对乱收费、乱罚款、乱检查、乱查封行为，陕西印发《关于对涉企行政检查实施计划管理的通 知》，实施跨领域、跨层级"综合查一次"；推动建立健全涉企收费长效监管机制，加强涉企收费监督管 理；完善行政执法分级分类管理制度，优化行政裁量权基准。截至目前，聚焦市场监管、城市管理、生 态环境等涉企收 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beijing is deepening administrative law enforcement reform as a means to enhance urban governance and service efficiency, focusing on integrated law enforcement across multiple departments, particularly in water management [1][2][8]. Group 1: Reform Implementation - Starting from July 1, 2024, Beijing's urban management law enforcement will consolidate all administrative penalties and related powers from the water management department, aiming to improve collaborative governance and smart regulation [1][2]. - The reform integrates functions across various sectors, including water, electricity, gas, and heating, creating a comprehensive law enforcement body that addresses urban water safety and related tasks [2][3]. Group 2: Collaborative Mechanisms - A joint inspection and information-sharing mechanism has been established between urban management and water departments, creating a closed-loop process for water-related law enforcement and management [2][3]. - The reform promotes cross-regional collaboration with Tianjin and Hebei, enhancing regulatory efforts in flood safety, water protection, and ecological governance [3]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - A comprehensive big data platform for urban management law enforcement has been developed, enabling efficient problem detection and legal enforcement through online data comparison and remote inspections [4][5]. - The platform supports risk monitoring and credit regulation of business entities, ensuring a data-driven approach to law enforcement and enhancing operational efficiency [5]. Group 4: Community Engagement - The reform emphasizes a "law enforcement for the people" approach, promoting flexible enforcement and community involvement in water management [6][7]. - Regular legal education activities are conducted to raise awareness among businesses and residents about water regulations, fostering a collaborative environment for water governance [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Beijing aims to enhance the clarity of responsibilities and improve the efficiency of regulatory and enforcement processes, focusing on the integration of law enforcement with industry management [8]. - The ongoing reform is seen as a vital step towards modernizing governance capabilities and improving the business environment, with a commitment to continuous innovation in water management practices [8].

Core Points - A local business in Shandong, China, received a hefty fine of 450,000 yuan for allegedly violating advertising laws, which has raised questions about the legitimacy of the enforcement actions taken by local authorities [1][2] - The fine was reportedly issued based on a video posted by the business owner, which did not include any promotional links or advertisements, leading to concerns about the adequacy of the investigation conducted by the enforcement agency [1] - The local authorities later announced that the fine would not be enforced, but the process of issuing and retracting the penalty has been criticized for lacking transparency and adherence to legal procedures [2] Summary by Sections Enforcement Actions - The fine of 450,000 yuan was issued for "illegal advertising" based on a video that did not promote the business [1] - The enforcement agency failed to provide the business owner with adequate time or channels for defense before issuing the fine [1] Legal Procedures - The process of issuing and retracting the fine has been described as arbitrary and lacking proper legal procedures [2] - There are ongoing investigations into the enforcement actions taken in this case, with the public awaiting further clarification [2]

据央视新闻消息：7月11日，网传山东临沂兰山区一饭店因拍摄发布菜品视频被认定为"违法广告"，并面临高 额处罚。兰山区高度重视，立即成立联合调查组开展调查。 经初步调查，2025年2月15日，当事人涉嫌在网络发布使用国家禁止食用的动物蛤蟆（中华蟾蜍）加工菜品 的视频。3月17日，兰山区市场监管局立案调查，并于3月24日下达《行政处罚告知书》。3月27日，当事人 向兰山区市场监管局提交了陈述申辩相关资料，并主动删除相关视频。5月12日，兰山区市场监管局综合具体 事实和危害程度，决定不再作出行政处罚并告知当事人。目前，联合调查组正对该案执法行为开展进一步调 查。 此前报道 据封面新闻报道，7月11日，山东临沂的张女士向记者反映，她因随手拍摄的一段短视频，被临沂市兰山区市 场监督管理局认定为"涉嫌违反广告法"，且拒绝配合调查，被罚款45万元。 据张女士介绍，她在临沂市兰山区经营一家名为钦知坊的老菜馆。饭店的面积不大，加上包房也只有几张餐 桌。今年2月左右，她在短视频平台上发布了一段自己随手拍摄的菜品视频。3月22日，她突然接到兰山区市 监局工作人员的电话，称她发布的那段菜品视频涉嫌为违法广告，让她配合调查。 通过查看 ...

Core Insights - The article analyzes the differential impact of various types of news on currency pairs, highlighting that economic structure, market liquidity, risk attributes, and policy sensitivity contribute to these differences [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact by News Type - Economic data news (e.g., employment, inflation) significantly affects major currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, which are highly sensitive to US and European data [1]. - Commodity currencies (AUD/USD, USD/CAD) are more influenced by commodity prices and Chinese demand data [2]. - Emerging market currencies (USD/CNH, USD/BRL) experience volatility driven by capital flows, particularly under conditions like a 300 basis point inversion in US-China interest rates, which can pressure the Renminbi [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Policy News - For USD currency pairs, Federal Reserve decisions dominate the market, with hawkish statements boosting the dollar index; after a rate cut in September 2024, US stocks surged while non-USD currencies weakened [3]. - Currency pairs like JPY and CHF are sensitive to sudden changes in central bank policies, as seen in 2022 when the Bank of Japan's intervention led to a 500-point drop in USD/JPY within 10 minutes, although the trend reversed a week later [3]. - Emerging market currencies exhibit strong but fragile policy independence; for instance, a rate cut by the People's Bank of China in 2025 may lead to short-term depreciation of the Renminbi, followed by a rebound as the economy stabilizes [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Sudden Events - Safe-haven currencies (JPY, CHF, USD) are sought after during escalations in conflict, as evidenced by the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis which increased demand for the Yen and Franc [4]. - Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD) are vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, illustrated by a 76% increase in shipping costs due to a 2025 European port strike, which negatively impacted the Australian dollar [4]. - The British pound (GBP/USD) is highly sensitive to political risks, with significant volatility observed during events like the 2016 Brexit referendum [4]. Group 4: Currency Pair Characteristics - Major currency pairs are most sensitive to US economic data and Federal Reserve policies, typically exhibiting volatility ranges of 50 to 300 points during events like NFP and CPI releases [5]. - Safe-haven currencies react to geopolitical events and global risk sentiment, with typical volatility spikes of 2% to 5% [5]. - Commodity currencies respond to commodity price changes and Chinese demand data, with volatility typically ranging from 30 to 100 points [5]. - Emerging market currencies show significant volatility variation (5% to over 80%) based on Federal Reserve policies and capital flows, with examples of the South African Rand and Turkish Lira depreciating over 80% during tightening periods [5]. Group 5: Underlying Reasons for Differences - Liquidity stratification exists, with major currency pairs like EUR/USD having high liquidity and limited spread expansion, while emerging market currencies can see spreads widen significantly during news events [7]. - Policy transmission efficiency varies, with developed countries having mature expectations management (e.g., the Fed's dot plot), while emerging markets often experience unexpected policy shifts [8]. - Economic structure dependency is evident, as resource-based currencies (AUD, CAD) are closely linked to commodity prices, while manufacturing-exporting currencies (KRW, CNY) are more affected by trade data [9]. - The risk preference transmission chain indicates that risk events lead to safe-haven currency appreciation, which subsequently triggers unwinding of carry trades, causing declines in commodity currencies [10]. Group 6: Trading Strategy Recommendations - For major currency pairs, a breakout strategy is suggested, entering trades three minutes after data releases, validated by technical levels [11]. - For safe-haven and commodity currencies, a mean reversion strategy is recommended following geopolitical events, such as buying the Swiss Franc after a sharp decline due to central bank intervention [12]. - For emerging market currencies, a three-fold verification process is advised, considering policy intervention, fundamentals (trade surplus), and technical support, while avoiding unilateral bets [13].

特朗普期待的黄金时代，需要每一个平凡的美国人努力工作，而非赋闲在家享受增长 的转移支付红利，而OBBB法案对于转移支付资格的收紧成为其具象化的第一步。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/ 联系人钟天 从OBBB法案的细节来看，特朗普的减支决心并未退却。 | 预测机构 | 截至2034年对GDP影响 | | --- | --- | | СВО | 0.40% | | Joint Committee of Taxation | 0.20% | | Yale Budget Lab | -0.10% | | Penn Warton Budget Model | 0.40% | | Tax Foundation | 1.10% | | AEI | 0.40% | | Tax Policy Center | 0.40% | 新 闻 渲 染 的 10 年 4 万 亿 美 元 增 赤 的 基 线 情 形 是 TCJA 等 减 税 法 案 完 全 不 续 作 ， 即 " 现 行 法 律 基 线"(Current Law)，我们认为更需要观察的是"现行政策基线"(Current Policy)下的边际赤字变化。 尽管这种对比基准的变化被美国媒 ...