7月风暴眼全解析！非农前黄金暗流汹涌，神秘买家精准抄底，谁在低位"截杀"空头？美元52年最差表 现背后，买盘力量已悄然建仓。揭秘大资金布局逻辑、捕捉黄金主升浪行情>> 相关链接 复盘黄金资金暗战，谁在低位"截杀"空头？ ...

今天分享的是：艺康集团：2025年餐饮消费洞察报告 01 CATERING CONSUMPTION INSIGHT 2025 报告共计：16页 《艺康集团：2025年餐饮消费洞察报告》围绕餐饮消费新逻辑与行业新趋势展开分析，核心内容如下： 报告指出餐饮消费呈现五个新逻辑。性价比逻辑方面，00后通过代际溢出效应改变消费市场，他们注重高性价比与情绪价值，如"剩菜盲盒"受追捧，且对传 统营销"群体免疫"，善用工具筛选高性价比商家。大单品逻辑下，产品取代流量成为关键，成功大单品靠性价比或特色取胜，还能培养消费者口味忠诚度， 但需平衡创新与经典。预制加现制逻辑中，工业化预制成趋势，同时头部品牌注重现场感知度，兼顾效率与"烟火气"。多引擎逻辑体现为全渠道模式发 展，"堂食+零售"提升坪效，公域私域混合运营增强用户粘性。轻社交逻辑下，线上社交主导消费决策，年轻人偏好小规模聚会与个性化空间，聚餐更重兴 趣联结。 此外，报告认为连锁小店模式成行业新趋势。其核心优势在于成本低、效率高，适配碎片化社交，私域运营空间大。竞争点集中在五个能力：爆品迭代创 新，需建立"核心单品+动态创新"系统；供应链的弹性与柔性，以应对风险和市场需求； ...

Group 1 - International gold prices faced slight pressure, ending a two-day rebound, with COMEX gold futures net long positions dropping to 605.91 long tons, the lowest in nearly four quarters [1][2] - London gold spot prices briefly fell below $3,330 per ounce before rebounding, with current prices reported at $3,335.12 per ounce, while COMEX futures were at $3,344.8 per ounce [1] - Gold prices saw a significant drop to $3,255 per ounce last week, marking a one-month low, but rebounded to $3,350 per ounce at the start of this week, with a cumulative increase of 1.96% [1] Group 2 - Market trading sentiment has cooled, with a notable decline in COMEX gold futures net long positions in May and June, totaling 605.91 long tons for Q2 [2] - Sales of American Eagle coins have decreased, with cumulative sales of 102,000 ounces by the end of April, significantly lower than 185,000 ounces in the same period last year [2] - Gold ETFs have shown signs of net outflows, with Asian investors reducing holdings, resulting in a net sell of 4.8 tons in May and two weeks of outflows in June [2] Group 3 - Analysts attribute recent gold price fluctuations to easing geopolitical risks and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, with a focus on potential interest rate cuts in September [2] - The market anticipates a shift towards betting on Federal Reserve rate cuts in July, supported by strong global central bank gold purchases and concerns over the dollar's credibility [2] - The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 21.3%, indicating increasing market expectations [2] Group 4 - Since 2025, the pricing logic of gold has shifted, with its monetary attributes returning, viewed as a put option under the current credit currency system [4] - The ongoing cycle of high interest rates, increased government interest expenditures, rising deficits, and declining U.S. Treasury credit is expected to enhance gold's safe-haven value [4] - A report indicates that one in three central banks managing $5 trillion in reserves plans to increase gold holdings in the next 1-2 years, the highest proportion in five years [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with strong performance in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, steel, cement, and coal, while communication equipment, semiconductors, aerospace, and consumer electronics lagged behind [1] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is accelerating, with steady growth in ETF sizes and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding the path of potential rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1] Group 2 - The A-share market showed signs of adjustment, with the majority of Federal Reserve members expecting a rate cut later this year, while the U.S. economy remains robust [2] - Domestic manufacturing PMI data indicates a recovery in manufacturing sentiment, reflecting resilience in the Chinese economy [2] - Upcoming mid-year reports are expected to significantly impact individual stock performance, reinforcing the importance of earnings in market dynamics [2]

当前国际原油市场正处于复杂的博弈状态。多重因素相互交织，推动油价在窄幅区间内震荡运行。市场 参与者密切关注供需两端的微妙变化。 供应端压力持续加大 地缘风险溢价快速消退 以色列与伊朗之间为期12天的军事冲突已正式结束。双方达成全面停火协议，有效缓解了市场对霍尔木 兹海峡封锁的担忧。这条战略水道承载着全球约20%的石油运输量。其安全状况直接影响能源供应链稳 定。 冲突期间布伦特原油价格一度飙升至每桶80美元以上的五个月高点。市场恐慌情绪推动油价出现脉冲式 上涨。但随着停火消息传出，风险溢价迅速消退。油价在短短两天内暴跌超过12%，几乎抹平此前全部 涨幅。 地缘政治风险的快速释放使市场重新聚焦基本面因素。投资者开始重新评估全球供需平衡状况。当前原 油市场面临的核心问题已从地缘供应中断转向结构性供应过剩。这一转变正在重新定义油价的定价逻 辑。布伦特原油自6月25日以来在66.34至69.04美元之间波动，显示市场在OPEC+会议前保持观望情 绪。 OPEC+连续三个月实施大规模增产计划。八个核心成员国每月增产41.1万桶，累计增产规模已达137万 桶/日。这一数字已回补近62%的此前减产幅度。沙特阿拉伯作为该组织领 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 gszqdatemark 2025 07 02 年 月 日 电力设备 从电价逻辑探讨海外工商储需求空间–欧洲、东南亚和非洲市场 2025 年来，我们注意到海外工商储需求快速爆发。本篇报告我们拟从电 价角度探讨三个问题：1）海外工商储需求为何爆发？2）降本后工商储经 济性如何？3）怎么看海外工商储需求空间？ 工商储供需探讨：电价政策&应急备电为工商储底层需求，系统成本下降 带动需求进一步放量。需求端：1）欧洲：工业电价水平远高于美国，配 备工商储可平滑发电波动，降低企业端用电成本。2）东南亚：发电成本 （煤炭、天然气价格上涨）上升推高当地电价，高性价比离网储能预计为 主流需求。3）非洲：当地停电频发+电价高增，催化并离网切换及离网备 电需求。供给端：碳酸锂价格和光伏组件价格持续下行，2025 年 2 月工 商储系统中标价格降至 0.6 元/Wh，模块化产品形态可适配多种场景。 浅析海外电价：欧洲小型工商业主用电成本最高，东南亚电费相对水平高 于中国，非洲电价高增催化企业端工商储应急备电&降本需求。 工商储需求空间：我们测算欧洲仅小型工商储空间约 66GWh，东南亚、 非洲（矿山场景） ...

证券研究报告 东京电子 (8035 JP) 华泰研究 首次覆盖 投资评级(首评): 买入 目标价(日元): 32,000.00 黄乐平，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050001 SFC No. AUZ066 huangleping@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 陈旭东 研究员 SAC No. S0570521070004 SFC No. BPH392 chenxudong@htsc.com 于可熠 研究员 SAC No. S0570525030001 SFC No. BVF938 yukeyi@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 受益中美先进工艺投资机会 基本数据 | 目标价 (日元) | 32,000.00 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (日元 截至 6 月 30 日) | 27,680 | | 市值 (日元百万) | 12,681,045 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (日元百万) | 91,426 | | 52 周价格范围 (日元) | 16,560.00-37,964.28 | | BVPS (日元) | 3,902 | 股价 ...

2025 年 7 月 2 日 生猪：提前交易 7 月社会面去库逻辑 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 15080 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 14550 | | 150 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 16640 | | 400 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13865 | | -5 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 13390 | | 35 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 13490 | | 5 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the decline in the US dollar supports the rise in gold prices, the likelihood of gold jewelry prices reaching 1200 yuan per gram in the short term is low, requiring a multi-dimensional analysis [1][12]. - The negative correlation between the US dollar and gold prices indicates that a weaker dollar typically benefits gold priced in dollars, making it cheaper for holders of other currencies and stimulating global demand [1][3]. - Historical data shows that during periods of dollar weakness, such as June 2025, international gold prices rebounded, with domestic gold jewelry prices following suit [3][5]. Group 2 - Factors supporting the possibility of gold prices reaching 1200 yuan per gram include a significant drop in the dollar, geopolitical crises, and speculative fervor, although the probability of this scenario is less than 20% [5][12]. - Current influences on gold prices include synchronized depreciation of non-US currencies, which diminishes gold's attractiveness, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies that could delay easing measures despite potential interest rate cuts [4][12]. - Geopolitical sensitivity is highlighted, as a de-escalation in Middle Eastern tensions previously led to a significant drop in gold prices, indicating that renewed conflicts could trigger short-term spikes but are unlikely to sustain high prices [5][12]. Group 3 - Market sentiment and leverage risks are present, with current gold prices reflecting high-risk premiums and technical indicators showing signs of divergence [6][7]. - The rise of alternative assets, such as platinum and cryptocurrencies, is diverting funds away from gold, impacting its demand [8]. - Recommendations for consumers include prioritizing essential purchases through low-cost channels and for investors to diversify their portfolios while being cautious of high-level corrections [9][11].

前言 高考志愿填报季刚刚过去，每年这个时候都会有很多同学和家长私信我： "在AI大爆发的时代，什么专业才是真正有前途的？程序员会被取代吗？文科生还有出路吗？" 今天我想聊聊我自己的思考，也顺便公布一个 重磅好消息 我们团队正在招募暑期/长期 AI实习生！欢迎你来，和我们一起站在AI最前沿！ AI时代，更应该学什么？ 很多人觉得，AI都能写代码了，那学编程、数学还有什么意义？甚至还有"文科没用"的说法。其实这都 是误区。 批判性思维 ：不是每个答案都对，能不能发现AI的疏漏，决定了你的天花板。 所以，不管你是理科生还是文科生，数学、哲学、历史、法学这些锻炼底层思维的专业，依然非常值得 学。它们是你未来用好AI的地基。 摇人！！ 真正能在AI时代长期受益的，恰恰是那些 底层能力强 的人。包括四个维度： 逻辑能力 、 常识基础与 好奇心、 批判性思维 。 这些能力决定了一个人是否能真正把AI用好。 逻辑思维 ：AI再强，本质上还是你给它提问、下指令、评判它的产出。逻辑不强，AI做得对不对你都 分不清。 常识与好奇心 ：AI输出的答案往往有局限，只有不断追问、不断验证，才能发现深层机会。 报名方式 为了让更多年轻人亲 ...