Regulatory Landscape - White House crypto report urges removal of capital gains tax on small Bitcoin payments [1] Cryptocurrency - Report focuses on Bitcoin payments [1]

RT Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano)This week's conversation with @jvisserlabs unpacks the White House plan to eliminate capital gains, why the US grid is under so much pressure, whether Powell will resign, and the logic for bitcoin to explode much higher this year.Enjoy!TIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro1:05 - White House eliminating capital gains tax?3:52 - Why is PMI important?9:37 - US grid system13:55 - Human capital component21:37 - What is going on with the Fed?27:34 - Thoughts on Powell resignation30:36 - Bitc ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - Discussion on the potential elimination of capital gains tax by the White House [1] - Analysis of the importance of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) [1] - Bitcoin is considered to be in a position to potentially surge significantly this year [1] - Retail investors are identified as a driving force in the market [1] Economic & Financial Considerations - Examination of the pressures on the US grid system [1] - Consideration of the "human capital component" within the economy [1] - Speculation regarding potential resignation of Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve (The Fed) [1] - Assessment of whether gold should be included as part of an investment portfolio [1]

Tax Revenue & Economic Impact - UK's capital gains tax increase led to an 18% fall in net capital gains tax revenue [1] - The capital gains tax revenue loss amounts to £27 billion [1] - High-net-worth individuals and families are leaving the UK [1] UK Economic & Social Climate (Perceived Negatives) - High taxes are a concern in the UK [1] - Unfavorable weather conditions are a perceived negative aspect of the UK [1] - Concerns exist regarding violent migrants in the UK [1] - Dissatisfaction with police actions targeting X (formerly Twitter) users [1] - Unfavorable cryptocurrency regulations are present in the UK [1]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that breaking through \$120,000 in Bitcoin and \$4,000 in Ethereum could lead to rapid market movement [1][7] - The administration is considering eliminating capital gains tax on housing to stimulate the housing market by unlocking transactions and enabling people to sell homes [1] - Re-industrialization is occurring, driven by AI embodiment, requiring hardware, data centers, and power, shifting focus from software to energy, materials, and mining [2] - The US grid system is under strain due to the energy demands of AI data centers, leading to skyrocketing megawatt per day pricing and a shortage of data center space [2] - The report highlights a potential shift in market leadership from the MAG7 to a broader range of companies in the energy, materials, and mining sectors due to re-industrialization and AI [2][17] - Bitcoin is catching up to gold in performance, and the report suggests that Bitcoin relative to the S&P 500 and especially the MAG7 is the most important chart for the rest of the year [7] Economic Factors & Policy - The Fed's independence is questioned due to fiscal dominance, with a massive debt situation and a deficit of 6% to 7% requiring lower interest rates to manage interest expense [4] - The report suggests that the Fed may need to focus on the debt and deficit problem, potentially changing its views on monetary policy [5] - The report mentions that the market isn't expecting a rate cut at the next meeting, so a cut would be a massive surprise [5] Labor Market & Automation - There is a massive shortage of labor in energy, physical world, manufacturing, and blue-collar companies, suggesting robotics may fill the gap rather than displace workers [3] - The report indicates a need for 500,000 workers solely for the power side of the electricity grid [2] Retail Investor Influence - The report emphasizes the growing influence of retail investors, with meme-driven investments and a shift in market dynamics [7][8][9]

Housing Market Trends - Redfin's chief economist suggests that eliminating capital gains taxes on primary residences might not necessarily stimulate the housing market; it could even disincentivize selling [2][3][4] - The housing market is rebalancing, shifting towards a buyer's market with increased inventory [5] - According to Zillow, 26.6% of listings saw price cuts in June, the highest since 2018, indicating a market correction [5] - Increased negotiating power for buyers, especially in areas with substantial construction during the pandemic like Florida and Texas [5] - Rental market stability provides an alternative for potential homebuyers [6] Pricing and Transactions - Increased transaction activity is anticipated later in the year as sellers adjust to meet buyer expectations [7][8] - Seller realization of market realities, influenced by comparable sales data, is crucial for aligning buyer and seller expectations [9][10] Tax Policy Implications - Redfin suggests reducing taxes on home improvements, such as ADUs, to incentivize housing unit creation [4]

Market Sentiment and Positioning - Home builder stocks are known for rapid movements, requiring investors to be early to avoid significantly higher prices [2][3] - The recent surge is attributed to sentiment and fundamentals slowing their decline, rather than actual fundamental improvement [3] - Specialists were tactically positioned negatively, but a slight improvement in the environment led to a realization of undervaluation and potential for dramatic revaluation [6] Valuation and Fundamentals - Home builders are structurally undervalued, historically trading on book value, which is no longer appropriate [4] - Companies have improved fundamentals by becoming more land light, increasing sustainable profitability, and reducing leverage [4][5] - NVR, a builder in the space, trades at a PE multiple of 18 or higher, while many others recently traded at high single-digit PE multiples [7] Policy Impact - Removing capital gains taxes on home sales would incrementally help the higher end of the market due to existing tax shields of $250,000 for singles and $500,000 for married couples [10] - A return of consumer confidence, particularly among lower-end consumers, would be the biggest catalyst for a rebound in housing demand [11][12][13] - The current administration's actions have created instability and uncertainty, potentially hurting the housing market more than helping it [11]

Trump ‘Thinking About’ Ending Capital Gains Tax On Home Sales—Why That Could Impact Millions Of Homeowners https://t.co/rS1rclQEh9 ...

Tax Policy Reform - The President signaled support for legislation eliminating capital gains tax on home sales [1] - A National Association of Realtors study found the tax policy reform could impact millions of Americans [1]

Trump ‘Thinking About’ Ending Capital Gains Tax On Home Sales—Why That Could Impact Millions Of Homeowners https://t.co/30Bvvk7D05 https://t.co/30Bvvk7D05 ...