Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. The ongoing government shutdown, which commenced at the start of the month, is now predicted by Polymarket to extend well into October, with a significant 70% probability of lasting until Oct.15th or even later. 70% Bets See Government Reopening After Oct. 15 This forecast suggests a prolonged period of federal inactivity, stemming from deep-seated budgetary disagreements between Democrats and Republicans. ...

Core Insights - The ongoing government shutdown is expected to last until at least October 15, with a 70% probability of extending beyond that date, primarily due to budgetary disagreements between Democrats and Republicans [1][2][3] Budgetary Disagreements - The impasse is largely centered around healthcare spending, with Republicans proposing cuts while Democrats seek to maintain and extend enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which could add $1.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [4] Market Impact - Historically, government shutdowns have had minimal impact on the stock market, with the S&P 500 often performing well during such periods; for instance, during the 2018 shutdown, the S&P 500 rose by 10% [6] - Essential services like Social Security are expected to remain unaffected by the shutdown, alleviating some concerns regarding public benefits [5] National Debt Concerns - Despite the shutdown, government spending continues unabated, contributing to a rapid increase in national debt, which has risen by $1.7 trillion in less than three months, approaching $38 trillion [7] - The prolonged shutdown underscores ongoing fiscal challenges, with investors focusing on the implications of sustained government spending rather than the temporary nature of the shutdown [8] Price Action - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) experienced declines, with SPY down 0.0015% and QQQ down 0.42% [10]

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Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. President Donald Trump once again floated the idea of issuing rebate checks to Americans funded by the hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff revenue imposed by his administration. ‘A Dividend’ To The People of America On Thursday, Trump said the government has already taken in hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs imposed on foreign nations since April. “They're just starting to kick in,” he sa ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government is currently collecting tariff revenues at an annualized pace of approximately $350 billion, which constitutes about 18% of annual household income tax payments, indicating that tariffs are a significant revenue source in the U.S. economic landscape [1][2] Tariff Overview - Tariffs, which are taxes on imported goods, have been a controversial tool in U.S. economic policy, traditionally aimed at protecting domestic industries and raising public funds. Their current scale of $350 billion annually marks a substantial contribution to federal revenue [2] Economic Perspectives - Some economists, including Shawn Tully and Steve Hanke, argue that tariffs function similarly to a value-added tax (VAT), which has been prevalent in Europe. They suggest that tariffs are a response to high government spending in Europe and highlight the significance of tariff revenue in the context of U.S. tax policy [3] Consumer Impact - The burden of tariffs is not evenly distributed, as they are typically passed on to consumers through higher prices for imported goods. This results in increased costs for a variety of products, affecting consumers directly [4] Indirect Taxation - Tariffs effectively act as an indirect tax on households, applying uniformly to all consumers regardless of income level. This regressive nature means that lower-income families bear a heavier burden, as they spend a larger portion of their income on essential goods [5] National Debt Implications - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) acknowledges the importance of tariff collections as a federal revenue source, suggesting that the increase in tariff revenues could play a role in addressing the U.S. national debt, which stands at $37 trillion [6]

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Economic Overview - American drivers are projected to spend less than 2% of their disposable income on gasoline in 2025, the lowest share since 2005, excluding the pandemic year of 2020 [4] - The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is expected to be 2.7% in 2026, slightly higher than the previous year's 2.5%, but still below the inflation rate [7] - The average single-family American homeowner is now paying approximately $2,370 annually for property insurance, a 70% increase since the pandemic, with premiums rising 4.9% in the first half of this year alone [11] Energy Sector Insights - European grid capacity shortages persist due to reliance on intermittent wind and solar energy, leading to soaring energy prices and increased power bills [7] - The need for more fossil fuel power plants is emphasized, as ramping up nuclear plants will take over 15 years to address current grid vulnerabilities [7][9] Stock Market Performance - Major US stock indices, including the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, reached all-time highs, with the Dow rising 1% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 1.2% and 2.2% respectively [13] - The Buffett Indicator stands at 214, significantly above its long-term average of 86, indicating potential overvaluation in the stock market [16] National Debt Concerns - The US National Debt has reached $37 trillion, with additional unfunded obligations exceeding $100 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies [20][23] - Analysts warn that financial repression and fiscal dominance could weaken the USD's appeal, as suppressed yields reduce real returns on US assets [23] Housing Market Analysis - A study by WalletHub identified states with the healthiest housing markets, highlighting the ten states with the lowest mortgage delinquency rates [27]

Economic Issue - The core economic issue facing the US is the national debt, which is a polarizing topic with varying beliefs on whether it is being adequately addressed [1]

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AI与机器人 - AI和机器人技术被认为是解决国家债务问题的关键 [1] - 如果AI和机器人无法解决国家债务，行业前景堪忧 [1]