Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 0.84% and over 3,600 stocks in the market showing losses, leading to a trading volume decrease to 1.07 trillion yuan, down 182.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The market failed to rebound as expected after a sharp drop, breaking the trend of strong recoveries following declines observed since May [1] Key Index Movements - The Shanghai Composite Index has faced repeated challenges at the 3,400-point mark, with four previous adjustments mirroring each other, characterized by a middle bearish line breaking through multiple short-term moving averages and decreasing trading volumes [3] - The index's trading volume shrank to 1.067 trillion yuan during the latest attempt to breach 3,400 points, indicating a potential fifth adjustment on the horizon [3] Sector Performance - The liquor sector saw a notable increase, with the China Securities Liquor Index rising nearly 3% in a single day, although it has declined by 11.67% since the announcement of new alcohol restrictions on May 18 [3] - The old energy sector, including oil and gas extraction, has experienced a downturn, while the new energy sector has shown volatility, with solid-state battery stocks initially surging before a rapid decline following the refutation of production cut rumors in the solar industry [4] Institutional Support - The banking and insurance sectors have provided crucial support to the market, indicating the presence of protective forces [6] - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated for 2025, with special bonds and a moderately loose monetary policy expected to bolster market resilience [6] Valuation Insights - A-shares are currently at historically low valuation levels, with the liquor sector's dividend yield becoming attractive compared to ten-year government bond yields [8] - The liquor industry is projected to reach a "valuation-earnings" double bottom by 2025, suggesting a mid-cycle buying opportunity [8] Future Market Outlook - The upcoming week holds uncertainty regarding the adjustment path, with potential for either a deep break that could attract outside capital or a mild pullback that necessitates monitoring of technology sectors for renewed investor interest [10] - Historical patterns suggest that current market adjustments may be a precursor to significant rebounds, similar to past instances where policy support and valuation bottoms coincided [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will review the IPO application of He Yuan Bio on July 1, marking the first company to apply under the newly reinstated fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board since the announcement by the CSRC Chairman on June 18 [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The third listing standard for the ChiNext board has also been officially implemented, supporting high-quality unprofitable innovative companies to go public [1] - These policy directions aim to provide listing opportunities and facilitate financing channels for companies with strong technological innovation capabilities and high growth potential [1] Group 2: Market Trends - As of now, there are 54 unprofitable companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with 20 of them utilizing the fifth listing standard, primarily listed between 2020 and 2022 [1] - The market has shown a significant divergence in value judgment regarding unprofitable companies, especially as the fifth listing standard entered a substantive pause in the second half of 2023 [1] Group 3: Investment Insights - Among the 20 companies that applied the fifth listing standard, 9 have shown a compound annual growth rate of over 40% in revenue over the past three years, indicating strong market capture and high product recognition [2] - In 2023, 19 of these companies outperformed the Sci-Tech 50 Index, with 14 companies seeing stock price increases of over 20%, and 6 exceeding 50% [2] - Institutional investors are increasingly recognizing the growth potential and investment value of these unprofitable companies, with 17 out of 20 companies having fund shareholders and 4 being held by social security funds [2] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The investment logic for high-quality unprofitable companies is becoming clearer with the return to a more inclusive policy direction [2] - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, commercial aviation, and low-altitude economy are expected to receive capital market support, helping leading companies seize development opportunities and accelerate their maturity [2]

Group 1 - The core concept of style rotation is based on the characteristics of ETFs, with common types including large-cap vs. small-cap rotation and growth vs. value rotation [1] - The logic of style rotation relies on two driving factors of equity asset prices: earnings and valuation, where earnings are the key determinant of style strength [1] - The performance difference between growth and value stocks is highly correlated with their earnings growth rate difference, indicating that when the earnings growth gap widens, growth stocks are likely to outperform value stocks [1] Group 2 - Large-cap stocks are more influenced by economic cycles due to their higher representation in the national economy, leading to stronger performance in economic upturns compared to small-cap stocks [1] - The liquidity environment significantly impacts stock valuations, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to liquidity changes; they tend to perform better in expanding liquidity conditions, while large-cap stocks perform better when liquidity tightens [1]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘继续上涨，回到4.9星。 大中小盘股都上涨，中证500等中小盘股涨幅略高。 红利等价值风格微涨，成长风格上涨较多。 证券指数大涨。 证券经常是三年不开张，开张吃三年。 短期里一波迅猛大涨，然后阴跌好几个月。 例如去年9月那波证券大涨，之后几乎半年多阴跌。 对证券这类品种，不太适合在大涨后追涨买入。 港股整体也上涨。 港股科技股领涨。 这轮5星是3-4月下跌后进入，到6月下旬回到4.9星。 今年市场整体比前两年坚挺很多，回到5星后，向下到过5.1、5.2星就反弹了。 历史上每次回到5星后的下跌，最后都涨了回来。 月薪宝（点击查看） 、 365组合（点击查看） 今天也上涨不错，接近历史新高。 1. 有朋友问，看到新闻说，个人养老金账户，未来取钱的时候，会对本金和收益，收取3%的税率。 那个人养老金账户还有开通必要么？ 其实这个不是一个很新的消息。 去年咱们做直播介绍个人养老金账户的时候，就提到过。 个人养老金账户，给予的福利政策，叫个税递延。 注意递延这个词，而不是完全取消。 不过个人养老金账户，对很多投资者，还是有开通的价值的。 2. 举几个例子。 （1）小王，工 ...

镍&不锈钢：情绪有所好转，延续宽幅震荡 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.5-12.4 | 15.17% | 3.2% | 【利多解读】 成本端镍矿价格支撑仍存 刚果钴矿禁矿延续 source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | 管理 | 值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购 管理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 心原料价格上涨 | 根据生产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The valuation logic of technology stocks is shifting from short-term profit indicators like net profit and PE ratios to focusing on technological value, driven by policy support and market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Dynamics - The Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) has restarted the IPO review process for unprofitable companies, with Wuhan Heyuan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. being the first to undergo review under the new fifth set of standards [1][2]. - The recent "1+6" policy reforms on the STAR Market have increased the inclusivity for unprofitable companies, allowing for a new growth layer that supports technology firms with significant breakthroughs and ongoing R&D investments [2][3]. - There are currently 12 unprofitable companies waiting for IPO approval, indicating a potential acceleration in the acceptance of such firms in the next two years [2]. Group 2: Valuation Methodology Shift - The evaluation of technology companies is increasingly based on their technological innovation and market potential rather than traditional profit metrics [3][5]. - A three-tier model for assessing technological value has been proposed, focusing on short-term R&D intensity, mid-term scarcity and efficiency, and long-term ecological binding [3][4]. - The "Kotevaluation" system aims to reshape the valuation framework by incorporating hard technology attributes, breaking away from the traditional profit-centric valuation [4][5]. Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - The valuation of the STAR Market has seen a significant increase, rising from approximately 117 times at the beginning of the year to 202.78 times by June 25, 2024, driven by policy support and industry growth [6]. - The valuation gap between STAR Market technology stocks and international counterparts is narrowing, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and biomedicine, where local firms are achieving technological breakthroughs [7][8]. - Future market performance is expected to be more differentiated, favoring companies with genuine technological barriers and commercialization capabilities, while speculative stocks may face continued adjustments [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to China Reinsurance and ZhongAn Online, while it gives a "Reduce" rating to China Taiping and Sunshine Insurance [3][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the investment in Chinese insurance stocks is primarily driven by three key indicators: investment asset-related risks, profit growth prospects, and dividend growth visibility [6][22]. - In a normal macroeconomic scenario, the growth rate of insurance premiums is expected to align with GDP growth, which is projected at 5% for 2025, leading to significant profit potential for small and mid-cap insurers [4][22]. - The report emphasizes that small and mid-cap insurers are likely to outperform large-cap insurers due to their potential for excess growth in underwriting profits and lower earnings volatility compared to equity fluctuations [6][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - China Reinsurance: "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 1.4, current P/E ratio of 4x for FY2025 [3][21]. - ZhongAn Online: "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 26, current P/E ratio of 27x for FY2025 [3][21]. - China Taiping: "Reduce" with a target price of HKD 8.2, current P/E ratio of 6x for FY2025 [3][21]. - Sunshine Insurance: "Reduce" with a target price of HKD 2.1, current P/E ratio of 7x for FY2025 [3][21]. Macro Environment Analysis - In a normal macro scenario, premium growth is expected to match GDP growth, leading to a projected 14% year-on-year profit growth for small and mid-cap insurers compared to 6% for large-cap insurers [4][22]. - In a pessimistic macro scenario, small and mid-cap insurers exhibit more resilient profit growth, with a potential 27% decline in earnings if the Shanghai Composite Index drops by 10%, compared to a 45% decline for large-cap insurers [29][35]. Financial Metrics - The report notes that the current valuation multiples for China Reinsurance are significantly lower than historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery as business conditions improve [23][24]. - The report also highlights that over 70% of equity investments are measured at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), which can lead to significant earnings volatility [7][28]. Risk and Opportunity Assessment - The report suggests that the decline in bond yields is beneficial for China Reinsurance, as it may lead to increased demand for financial reinsurance contracts among smaller insurers facing capital constraints [35][36]. - The analysis indicates that the insurance sector is under pressure due to declining bond yields, which could impact the solvency ratios of life insurers, but major players have managed to maintain strong solvency through capital-raising measures [5][35].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is facing a reality check after a strong rebound, with mixed trading in futures on the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq indices amid renewed hopes for interest rate cuts and a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel [1][4] - The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 22 times, which is 35% higher than its long-term average, indicating that the index appears "expensive" across various valuation metrics [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the S&P 500's earnings need to grow by 30% over the next year to return to "fair value," and that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could help bridge the gap between fundamentals and market prices [4][5] Group 2 - BMO Capital Markets' chief investment strategist raised the S&P 500's year-end target from 6,100 to 6,700 points, citing a reduction in tariff concerns and an expected increase in corporate guidance following the second-quarter earnings season [5] - Investors are closely monitoring the progress of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has so far been maintained without new reports of attacks since President Trump's criticism of violations [6]

Core Viewpoint - FedEx's stock experienced a 6% decline in after-market trading following its Q4 FY2025 earnings report, despite surpassing consensus estimates, due to a cautious outlook for the upcoming quarter [2][6] Financial Performance - FedEx reported Q4 revenue of $22.2 billion, matching the prior-year quarter and exceeding the consensus estimate of $21.8 billion [3] - The package segment saw a 5% increase in volume, while composite package yield decreased slightly by 0.4% [3] - Freight volume declined significantly by 15%, although composite freight yield rose by 3% [3] - The adjusted operating margin improved by 600 basis points to 9.1%, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to $6.07 from $5.41 in the previous year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.86 [5] Guidance and Outlook - FedEx's guidance for Q1 FY2026 indicates revenue growth of flat to 2% year-over-year, slightly better than street estimates of a 0.1% decline [6] - The company forecasts adjusted earnings per share between $3.40 and $4.00, below the consensus estimate of $4.06 [6] - FedEx plans an additional $1 billion in cost-cutting measures for FY2026, building on $4 billion in savings already achieved [6] Valuation Analysis - FedEx's stock is currently trading around $215, with a trailing adjusted P/E ratio of 12x, lower than its five-year average of 16x, suggesting potential for growth [7] - The separation of the freight business is expected to unlock shareholder value and enhance focus on core parcel delivery operations [8] - The stock appears slightly undervalued, presenting a potential opportunity for long-term gains [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs despite multiple pressures, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 22 times, significantly above the long-term average of 35% [1] - The market's ability to sustain this upward trend depends on whether corporate earnings can exceed expectations or if the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates [1][4] - The S&P 500 index is currently facing historical challenges, including a new U.S. government's efforts to adjust global order and implement large-scale tariff policies, alongside uncertainties from conflicts in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500's current P/E ratio of 22 times is 35% higher than its long-term average, raising concerns about overvaluation [1][3] - A Bloomberg model suggests that the fair P/E ratio for the S&P 500 should be around 17.7 times, indicating that earnings would need to grow by 30% in the next year for the P/E to return to reasonable levels [3] - Investment strategists express caution regarding the sustainability of current market levels, suggesting that earnings expectations for the second half of the year may be overly optimistic [3][5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has indicated that it is not in a hurry to adjust policies, although lower inflation and weak labor recruitment may lead to earlier rate cuts this year [4] - Wall Street strategists recommend viewing any potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities, particularly in technology and growth stocks [5]