Group 1 - The UK is considering adjusting monthly CPI data to better measure inflation trends [1] - The adjustment aims to eliminate seasonal fluctuations, aiding the Bank of England and investors in assessing inflationary pressures [1] - The Office for National Statistics plans to consult on whether to compile seasonally adjusted month-on-month inflation data in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Other countries like the US and France already use this technique to mitigate price volatility caused by seasonal changes [1] - This adjustment is seen as a significant shift for those trying to gauge inflation direction and potential interest rate movements [1] - Paul Dales, Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, stated that this will provide a better and more reliable indicator of current price pressures [1]

欧洲央行会议纪要：短期内通缩压力可能占据主导地位。 ...

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate an increased confidence among members regarding the return of inflation to target levels in the medium term [1] - Members are more inclined to believe that trade shocks may lead to inflationary pressures beyond the short term [1] Summary by Categories Inflation Outlook - ECB members express enhanced confidence in the medium-term return of inflation to target levels [1] Trade Impact - There is a growing belief among ECB members that trade shocks could contribute to inflationary pressures in the longer term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) members are increasingly inclined to believe that trade shocks may lead to inflationary pressures beyond the short term [1] Group 1 - ECB members discussed the potential long-term impacts of trade shocks on inflation, indicating a shift in their perspective [1] - The meeting highlighted concerns regarding the sustainability of inflation rates in the context of ongoing trade tensions [1] - There is a growing consensus among ECB members that external trade factors could have lasting effects on the Eurozone economy [1]

在20年期美债拍卖表现不佳的影响下，美债收益率大幅飙升。其中，美国10年期国债收益率突破 4.5%，升至4.604%，30年期国债收益率突破5%，升至5.096%。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪表示，美债此次的拍卖结果反映出市场对美国国债的需求疲 弱，"接盘"美债的意愿再度降低。从长期来看，市场对美债的承接能力弱化，与美联储缩表减持美债、 美国国内共同基金因收益率波动加剧而降低配置，以及海外投资者持续减持美债相关。就目前时点美债 需求下降，更多与穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，以及特朗普税改法案在众议院预算委员会通过，极大加 剧了市场对美国长期财政赤字扩张与债务压力问题的担忧。 （原标题：48小时，美债、日债为什么相继崩了？） 近日，多国国债市场热闹异常，先有日本国债拍卖"崩盘"，后有美国国债拍卖表现创五年最差，一时间 美债、日债变得不香了，为何曾经债市中的"小甜甜" 成为了如今的"牛夫人"？ 具体来看，5月22日凌晨，美国财政部20年期国债标售数据出炉，本次发行的最高中标利率达到 5.047%，较预发行利率5.035%高出约1.2个基点，也是近6个月来最大尾部利差，投标倍数也从近六个月 平均水平2.57下降至 ...

2025 年 05 月 22 日 证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年美债到期压力有多大？ 海外市场观察系列之一 分析师：蔡梦苑 分析师登记编码：S0890521120001 电话：021-20321004 邮箱：caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 美债实际的到期压力相对可控。尽管美债 5-7 月存在集中到期的压力，但短 债占比较高。考虑到短债市场流动性相对充足，展期压力整体可控。除短期国 债外，美国其他期限的国债到期分布相对较为平稳，未出现集中兑付峰值，到 期压力不高。由于一年以内利率上升的幅度有限，短期国债到期滚续带来的额 外利息支出压力有限。后续利息支出负担增加的压力主要来源于中期国债的到 期，2025 年来源于美国中期国债的新增利息支出约为 266 亿美元。 销售服务电话： 相关研究报告 2025 年美债到期引发的流动性冲击整体可控，当前可以择机进行美债配 置。当前 10 年期美债收益率受到评级下调、减 ...

38岁的方女士，是在中日两国之间往返十多年的外贸从业者。她出生在北京，父母是退休多年的普通工 人。 "我爸身体一直很好，他之前是做工程的，一米八几，走路带风的那种。谁能想到退休不到十年，就因 为生了场大病开始卧床。" 五年前，父亲突发疾病引起半身瘫痪，从此行动不便，完全依赖母亲照顾。每次方女士回国，家里的气 氛都格外沉重，母亲明显憔悴许多。在那之后，方女士开始认真考虑把父亲接来日本。 "我是独生女，我不管他，就没人管了。" 方女士大学毕业前往日本深造，获得硕士学位后，就在当地一家大型的综合商社工作，十多年奔波，她 在大阪都市圈全款买了套100平的公寓，并且拿到永久居住的身份。 据日本出入国在留管理厅数据，截至2023年底，在日拥有永久居留资格的中国人超过33万人。在这些群 体中，拿到"永住"并不等于"人生已稳"。当独生子女逐渐步入中年，父母养老问题迫在眉睫。 "真正遇到事，才发现这些制度都没法帮你真正解决问题"，日本官方对永住人群亲属来日，只有短期探 亲签证或旅游签，大部分的停留时间最长为单次90天，所以为了能长期照顾父亲，方女士做了件让朋友 听来都觉得"太拼了"的事——主动把身份从"永久居住"转为"高度人才 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is facing multiple risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, expanding fiscal deficits, and inflation pressures, as stated by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [3] - Dimon mentioned that the current Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach is wise, suggesting that they should continue to observe the situation before making decisions [3] - There is a growing concern among policymakers that high inflation and high unemployment could occur simultaneously, making stagflation a more realistic risk [3] Group 2 - The COMEX gold price has increased, currently trading at $3331.70 per ounce, with a rise of 0.46%, having reached a high of $3346.80 and a low of $3316.30 today [1][3] - Short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified at $3356-$3366, while support levels are noted at $3168-$3176 [3]

Core Insights - Yoshinoya aims to become the world's largest ramen restaurant by the fiscal year ending February 2035, as stated in its latest mid-term business plan (2025-2029) [1] - The company plans to transform its ramen business into a significant third business segment alongside its existing domestic and overseas operations, targeting a fourfold increase in ramen revenue within five years [1][2] Business Strategy - Yoshinoya has set a target to increase ramen sales from 8 billion yen (approximately 0.4 billion RMB) to 40 billion yen (approximately 1.99 billion RMB) by the fiscal year 2029, representing an annual growth rate of 38% [1][2] - The company aims to expand its ramen store count to 500 locations by 2029, increasing the ramen segment's contribution to total sales from 4% to 13% [1][2] Financial Goals - The ramen business's profitability is expected to grow tenfold, from 400 million yen to 4 billion yen over the next five years [2] - Yoshinoya's overall sales target is set at 300 billion yen by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% [2] Recent Acquisitions - The company has acquired 17 ramen brands, including Setagaya and Kirameki, to strengthen its ramen supply chain [3][5] - Yoshinoya's acquisition of Takara Sangyo, a supplier of noodles and sauces, is intended to enhance production capacity and sales resources for its global ramen expansion [5] Market Challenges - Yoshinoya's previous attempts to expand its Udon brand in China were unsuccessful, leading to its exit from the market in 2022 [8][9] - The company faces challenges in the Chinese market, where Japanese ramen has struggled with issues such as lack of cost-effectiveness and insufficient product innovation [9]

| 镇产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月22日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解键 | 124525 | 124575 | -20 | -0.04% | 元/肥 | | 1#金川嶺 | 125475 | 125525 | -50 | -0.04% | 元/肥 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2100 | 2150 | -50 | -2.33% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口娱 | 123575 | 123575 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 200 | 200 | 0 | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -204 | -202 | -3 | 1.27% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -2587 | -2726 | 138 | -5.10% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | ...