金十数据7月21日讯，金价在周一上涨逾1%，站上3400美元/盎司关口。因美元和美债收益率在贸易谈 判存在不确定性的背景下走弱，美国规定各国必须在8月1日的最后期限之前达成协议，否则将面临更多 关税。High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示："随着8月1日最后期限的临近，这给市场带来 了一定程度的不确定性，这当然是有利的。"Meger称，有关美国比预期更早降息的传言正在升温，有 关美联储主席鲍威尔可能被替换以及美联储重组的猜测加剧了市场的不安情绪。 关税最后期限临近 市场不确定性推动金价站上3400美元 ...

We reiterate our expectation of a weaker USD into H2 with EURUSD heading towards 1.20+. However, we see this driven by cyclical data weakness in the US on payback from the effects of H1. We are out of consensus on our expectation that H2 will be a bottoming process for the USD as the currency should recover in 2026, with EURUSD back down towards 1.12 by YE26. USDJPY may be close to peaking, though we may have to get past the July 20 election (more broadly Cross-JPY like CHFJPY could finally top out). Please ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Lithium and Rare Earth Industry**: The conference call primarily discusses the lithium and rare earth sectors, focusing on supply dynamics, pricing trends, and government regulations affecting these industries [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Tightening in Lithium**: The verification report for lithium reserves in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, may lead to some companies being unable to renew mining licenses on time, potentially affecting lithium carbonate production by approximately 20,000 tons per month, which could drive prices up [1][4]. - **Impact of Qinghai Salt Lake Production**: Companies in Qinghai are less affected by the recent regulatory changes, but there are concerns about overproduction and illegal mining practices that could pose risks to lithium supply [1][5]. - **Government Regulation Intent**: The government aims to optimize the lithium industry by eliminating loss-making capacities and better understanding national strategic metal reserves, which has contributed to a rebound in lithium prices from low levels [1][6]. - **Rare Earth Supply-Demand Shift**: Initially, there was an oversupply of rare earths in May, but a shift to a supply deficit is expected in Q3, which is likely to significantly boost prices, with prices for products like gadolinium oxide nearing 500,000 yuan per ton [1][9]. - **Geopolitical Factors Enhancing Rare Earth Value**: The U.S.-China trade tensions have led to a reassessment of the strategic value of rare earths, with China limiting exports and the U.S. supporting local industries, thus enhancing the valuation of the rare earth sector [1][10]. - **Market Sentiment in Rare Earths**: The auction of gadolinium and niobium metals on the Baotou exchange has led to a price increase, reflecting heightened market activity and confidence, with bullish sentiment prevailing [1][12]. Additional Important Content - **Current Lithium Companies to Watch**: Companies such as Zhongmin Resources, Shengxing Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yongxing Materials are highlighted for their stable stock performance and future growth potential [1][7]. - **Rare Earth Market Trends**: The rare earth market has shown significant improvement, with a tightening supply situation compared to the previous year, leading to a positive price outlook [1][9][13]. - **Investment Opportunities in Rare Earths**: The rare earth magnetic materials sector is recommended for investment, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth being noted for their potential [1][15][17]. - **Precious Metals Market Outlook**: The precious metals market, particularly silver and gold, is viewed optimistically due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with silver showing strong performance due to its dual financial and industrial attributes [2][16][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the lithium and rare earth industries, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.

美联储在其官网的"常见问题页面"新增了总部翻修工程的视频导览内容。 Home FAQs Most Frequently Asked Questions Marriner S. Eccles Building and 1951 Constitution Avenue Building Project Credit, Loans, and Mortgages Currency and Coin Economy, Jobs, and Drimac Most Frequently Asked Questions FAQs about the Marriner S. Eccles Building and 1951 Constitution Avenue Building Project The Federal Reserve takes seriously the responsibility to be good stewards of public resources. Read more ls the FedNow Service replacing cash? Is it a central bank dig ...

1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20250717）沪镍主力合约 2508 在早盘开盘报 119700 元/吨，盘中最高报 120170 元/吨，最低报 119270 元/吨，最终收盘 报 119880 元/吨，下跌 720 元/吨，跌幅 0.6%。 图 1：沪镇主力合约收盘价走势 研究品种: 沪镍 成文日期：2025/07/17 研究员 曹柏泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 报告周期: 日度 镇期货目报 文化来源：文华财经 研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 1.2 期货行情数据 | 表 1：沪镍期货行情表 20250717 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨 幅% | 成交 量 | 振幅% | 持仓 를 | 日増仓 | | 沪镇 2508 | 11988 0 | -720 | -0.60 | 85829 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Insights - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum is weak, but medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to tighten [14]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 1.32%, ranking in the middle among all Shenwan first-level industries [24]. - The top three performing sub-sectors were lithium (+6.19%), silver (+5.44%), and tungsten (+5.23%) [24]. 2. Precious Metals Market Data - London gold price was $3355.10 per ounce, with a slight increase of $3.00 per ounce (0.09%) [34]. - London silver price reached $38.27 per ounce, up by $0.77 per ounce (2.05%) [34]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased to 30.34 million ounces, down by 130,000 ounces [34]. 3. Industrial Metals Data - LME copper closed at $9720 per ton, up by $80 per ton (0.83%) [40]. - SHFE copper closed at 78,410 yuan per ton, down by 160 yuan per ton (-0.20%) [40]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 143,300 tons, down by 0.04 tons from the previous week [40]. 4. Key Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [16]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [16]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [16].

上周，关于唐纳德·特朗普总统是否准备解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的报道相互矛盾。白宫的报告显示，即将采取行动，但特朗普不久后否认他正在 准备这一在法律上有问题的策略。 贝森特一直处于争议的中心，既是美联储的潜在继任者，也是有报道指出财政部长是希望阻止特朗普罢免鲍威尔的调解人。 当被问及《华尔街日报》的一篇报道时，贝森特说："特朗普总统征求了各种意见，然后做出了决定。"该报道称，他帮助说服特朗普继续与鲍威尔保 持联系。"所以他需要很多投入，最终这是他的决定。" 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周一建议对美联储进行审查，审查将超越目前关于建筑翻修的争议，并着眼于其整体职能。 贝森特在接受CNBC"Squawk Box"采访时表示："我们需要做的是检查整个美联储机构，以及他们是否取得了成功。该组织是否成功完成了使命？如果 这是（联邦航空管理局），我们犯了这么多错误，我们会回过头来看看为什么会发生这种情况。" 这些评论是在白宫和央行之间的冲突加剧之际发表的。 贝森特说："他们在关税问题上散布恐惧，到目前为止，我们几乎没有看到通货膨胀。"。"我们的通胀数据很高。所以，你知道，我认为他们无法摆脱 某种心态。那边所有的博士，我不 ...

如果要列出今年美国总统特朗普公开指责最多次的联邦官员，美联储主席鲍威尔必定榜上有名。 他不是总统的对手，却成了最常被公开抨击的对象。"真正的傻瓜""太迟先生""愚蠢""固执"…… 据不完全统计，4月至今，仅在特朗普的个人社交账号，鲍威尔就被点名批评了十余次。他甚至在全球 各央行利率表上亲笔写下不满—— 杰罗姆(鲍威尔的名字)，你一如既往地"太迟了"！你让美国损失了一大笔钱，而且还在继续，你应该大 幅降息！ 白宫展示特朗普手写对鲍威尔的抨击。 美联储对美国国会负责。1913年通过的《联邦储备法》规定总统可因某种原因解除美联储理事职务(美 联储主席也是理事)，但对总统是否可解除美联储主席没有明确法律规定。美国最高法院最近在裁定中 暗示，美联储理事将受到特殊保护，免受总统解雇。 鲍威尔的主席任期至2026年5月，但白宫未因此放弃施压。 这不是简单的个人恩怨，而是白宫与美联储在货币政策上的根本性分歧。 2017年，特朗普亲自提名鲍威尔出任美联储主席。当时，他被视为稳健温和、专业中立，有望成为白宫 的"可靠盟友"。 但现实却很快脱轨：在多次拒绝白宫"迅速降息"的要求后，鲍威尔用行动守住了美联储的独立，也彻底 激怒了这位 ...

历史上一个特别清晰的教训是，当美联储被迫为政府赤字融资时——例如通过将利率维持在过低水平， 其结果必然是更高的通胀和经济损害。 我们曾多次看到这种情况，包括在美国。在第二次世界大战期间及战后数年，美联储受到美国财政部的 压力，不得不限制利率以帮助为战争债务融资。这项政策导致在1940年代末期爆发了两位数的通胀。 伯南克于2006年至2014年担任美联储主席，由乔治·W·布什任命。耶伦接替他担任主席，由奥巴马任 命，并任职至2018年。她还在拜登政府期间担任财政部长。两人均为经济学家。 作为美国联邦储备委员会的前主席，我们（即耶伦和伯南克）根据自身经验和对历史的理解深知，美联 储独立行事的能力对于其有效管理经济至关重要。 近期，一些试图损害这种独立性的行为，包括总统（即特朗普）要求大幅降息以及威胁解雇鲍威尔，这 些都可能对经济造成长期而严重的损害。这些行为不仅会损害鲍威尔本人，还会损害未来所有的美联储 主席，乃至美联储本身的公信力。 美联储在设定利率方面的独立性，并不意味着其缺乏民主问责制。国会已通过法律规定了美联储必须实 现的目标——最大就业和稳定物价，美联储的领导层也会定期向国会委员会汇报实现这些目标的进展 ...

早些时候，特朗普否认了《华尔街日报》的报道，后者援引知情人士的话报道称，贝森特告诉特朗普， 在鲍威尔明年春天任期届满前就将其免职可能会在经济和金融市场引发负面反应，并将美联储推入未知 的法律和政治领域。 美国财政部长贝森特周一表示，整个美联储需要作为一个机构来接受审查，看其是否成功。 贝森特在接受采访时，拒绝评论一篇关于他曾建议美国总统特朗普不要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的报道， 称这将是总统的决定。 但他表示，该机构应该受到审查，他提到了他所谓的美联储"就关税问题散布恐慌"，并指出到目前为 止，关税几乎没有产生任何通胀效应。 近几周，特朗普对美联储吹毛求疵的指责已经升级，特朗普政府的高级官员们正将矛头对准美联储耗资 25亿美元的翻新项目。 白宫管理和预算办公室（OMB）主任拉斯·沃特（Russell Vought）指责鲍威尔"对美联储严重管理不 善"，并以翻新项目的成本超支为例。 《华尔街日报》称，贝森特还认为，美联储似乎准备在今年降息，因此没有必要罢免鲍威尔。过去，特 朗普曾因鲍威尔不削减短期利率而严厉批评他。 但特朗普上周日在的一篇帖子中驳斥了《华尔街日报》的报道，称其"一如既往地不真实"。特朗普写 道，"没 ...