1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.06%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.11%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war enters a new stage; economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases; strong employment suppresses interest - rate cut expectations. [1] - **Safe - Haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: Fed officials' views on interest - rate prospects differ due to different expectations of how tariffs may affect inflation. Strong US employment growth has eliminated the possibility of a near - term Fed interest - rate cut. The market now expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound, and the strong RMB has suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are $67,132.36 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%. [8] - **US Treasury and Dollar Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.60%, the US dollar index is 97.86, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, and the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.02. [8][10] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68%. [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is - 0.50%, the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls monthly change is 14.70 million. [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, the VIX index is 17.65, the CRB commodity index is 303.52, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1706. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is presented in a table, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]

特朗普酝酿金融政变，逼宫鲍威尔，降息到底还有多远？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播 间 相关链接 美联储降息到底还有多远？ ...

关税还未传导至物价 关税似乎对市场毫无影响，原因在于明显的通胀暂未发生。摩根士丹利表示，从企业反馈来看，关税影响领域实际上出现了一些通缩迹象，这可能令部分人 感到意外。 利率将下降、就业强劲和大型企业盈利能力高是主要支撑因素。 截至上周五（7月11日）收盘，在中国境内上市的跨境美股ETF再度回到历史高点附近（计入美元贬值的因素），纳斯达克ETF、美国50ETF的净值分别报 2.039和1.3。 境内的ETF走势基本与近期美股的走势同步，科技巨头再扛大旗。7月10日，英伟达成为首个市值突破4万亿美元的公司，高盛近期更上调了美股的目标位， 将未来12个月的点位预测调至6900点（此前为6500点），利率将下降、就业强劲和企业盈利能力较高（特别是大型股）是主要支撑因素。 早前，各界一度认为，关税将严重影响美国企业的利润，并推高通胀，导致美联储难以降息。如今，"对等"关税的不确定性仍然高企，随着美国开始征收 10%的基础关税，数据显示关税收入开始上升，但通胀却未有上涨迹象，5月CPI连续四个月低于预期，这也令美股逆势走高。为何关税并未传导至通胀， 甚至出现了一些通缩效应？美股的复苏能持续多久？ 513300.SH[纳 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, but the overall tariff pressure has been reduced, leading to strong uncertainty in the policy. Most Fed officials still believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices remains uncertain [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Nickel ore prices have weakened, stainless - steel production has declined, spot inventories are high, steel mills' willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and the cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is still prominent. The power market has no significant changes, and nickel sulfate is relatively stable. Pure nickel continues the de - stocking trend, but the spot market is cold, and the premium has dropped significantly [3]. - Future outlook: Supply increases month - on - month, demand decreases month - on - month, and nickel prices lack fundamental drivers. In the short term, focus on macro risks. The nickel price may fluctuate weakly [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 120,540 yuan/ton on July 7, 2025, to 121,390 yuan/ton on July 11, 2025, an increase of 850 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,177 dollars/ton to 15,198 dollars/ton, an increase of 21 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 3,708 tons to 206,178 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 390 tons to 20,442 tons. Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium increased by 250 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. High - nickel pig iron average price decreased by 10 yuan/nickel point to 912 yuan/nickel point, and stainless - steel inventory increased by 1.47 tons to 93.1 tons [4]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from 52 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia dropped from 46.9 dollars/wet ton to 46.4 dollars/wet ton. Due to rainfall disturbances, the supply shortage at the mine end has persisted. With the long - term pressure on nickel - iron, some nickel - iron plants have reduced production and carried out maintenance, alleviating the shortage of nickel ore and causing the high - level price to weaken [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 907.5 yuan/nickel point to 905 yuan/nickel point. In June, China's nickel - iron production was expected to be about 24,550 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%, and 24,540 tons in July, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May, domestic nickel - iron imports were about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production in June was 136,800 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.51% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.26%, and 134,700 nickel tons in July, a year - on - year increase of 28.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%. The stainless - steel production has shrunk significantly, the inventory is at an absolute high level, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish nickel - iron is weak. The cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is increasing, and many plants have reduced production. If the production continues to shrink, it may drive the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose slightly from 27,400 yuan/ton to 27,420 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In June, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 24,795 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of ternary materials increased to about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.95% and a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. As of July 4, the downstream nickel - sulfate inventory days increased to 13 days, and the upstream inventory days decreased to about 8 days. The high inventory may suppress the material plants' replenishment intensity, and the nickel - sulfate price may be difficult to rise further [7]. 3. Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, with most countries seeing a decline in tariff rates compared to April. The Fed believes it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year and emphasizes observing the impact of tariffs on the supply chain [3][8]. - Fundamental: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and the smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The expected production of electrolytic nickel in July was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 1.25%. The export profit turned negative, which may suppress the domestic inventory de - stocking [8]. 4. Terminal Consumption - From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 135,000, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 6.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new - energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may drag down demand, and the export of new - energy vehicles to Europe is expected to weaken. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US will cancel subsidies for new - energy vehicle purchases after September 30. The domestic policy will focus on the automotive industry, and the demand is not expected to increase significantly [9]. 5. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 39,173 tons, a decrease of 1,144 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory is 20,442 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 399 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 206,178 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,708 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 226,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,318 tons [10]. 6. Industry News - Indonesia's approved nickel - ore production in 2025 reached 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [12]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 40,000 - ton nickel - based material production line in Morocco has been fully put into operation, and the base has a complete industrial - chain layout [12]. - Zhejiang New Era Zhongneng Technology Co., Ltd.'s project of producing electrowon nickel - cobalt in a sulfuric - acid system has been successfully put into production [12]. - Indonesian ITMG acquired a 9.62% stake in a nickel - mining enterprise [12]. 7. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventories, nickel - ore port inventories, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising by 0.53% and silver prices by 4.07% in the week of July 7-11, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has reached a maximum of over 100 this year, indicating potential for further increases in silver prices as gold prices stabilize [4] - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with fluctuations in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices noted. The report highlights a significant discrepancy between Indonesia's nickel production quotas and actual output due to seasonal weather impacts [4] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have increased, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand. Tungsten prices are also rising, indicating a steady growth in demand for tungsten in production tools [4] - Energy metals show mixed trends, with lithium prices increasing while cobalt and nickel prices are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, and domestic monetary policies are expected to support growth [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with the gold-silver ratio indicating potential for silver price increases [4][5] 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes for various industrial metals, noting specific percentage changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel [27] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals and tungsten have increased, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing and steady demand growth [28][31] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rising, while cobalt and nickel prices are declining, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring of energy metal demand [34] 2. Market Data - The report notes that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.02% increase, with specific sectors like metal new materials and precious metals showing significant gains [35] 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the successful launch of a new aluminum electrolysis production line and the planned expansion of an electrolytic aluminum project [41][42]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17085 | 10 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2017 | -20 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -30 | 10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 94820 | -1037 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1632 | 407 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 55130 | 2229 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 55149 | 1846 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 249375 | -3000 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16875 | -50 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17040 | -30 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -210 | -60 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -33.62 | -11.04 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) WB ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, copper prices showed a pattern of strength in the overseas market and weakness in the domestic market. Trump's announcement of a 50% high - tariff on imported copper from August 1st caused a sharp rise in US copper prices. A large amount of cross - market arbitrage funds entered the market, suppressing the prices of LME copper and SHFE copper. Some Fed officials believe that there will most likely be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, boosting market risk appetite. US copper is strong, but the risk of inventory surplus after the tariff implementation poses a pressure on further upward movement. LME copper will maintain a relatively strong oscillation, while SHFE copper will be weak in the short term under the dual pressure of reduced imported supplies and cross - market arbitrage [3][9]. - Overall, Trump's two rounds of tariff collection actions have triggered market concerns about the deterioration of trade relations. The upcoming high - tariff on US copper has led to the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic copper prices. The Fed's meeting minutes show a large divergence between hawks and doves, and maintaining the status quo in July is still the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the resumption of overseas interrupted mines is slim, the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern, deliverable supplies are flowing into North America, and domestic social inventory is fluctuating at a low level. It is expected that the overseas copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and SHFE copper will face pressure to回调 and confirm the lower support [4][12][13]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From July 4th to July 11th, LME copper decreased from $9852.00/ton to $9663.00/ton, a decrease of $189.00 or - 1.92%; COMEX copper increased from 506.25 cents/pound to 558.4 cents/pound, an increase of 52.15 cents or 10.30%; SHFE copper decreased from 79730.00 yuan/ton to 78430.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1300.00 yuan or - 1.63%; international copper decreased from 70990.00 yuan/ton to 69600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1390.00 yuan or - 1.96%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.09 to 8.12. The LME spot premium decreased from $95.35/ton to - $21.57/ton, a decrease of $116.92 or - 122.62%. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 115 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [5]. - As of July 11th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas increased to 491,373 tons, a 5.60% increase. Among them, LME copper inventory increased by 13,450 tons, LME0 - 3 shifted back to the B structure, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 37.6%; SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons; bonded area inventory increased by 2,500 tons, and the Yangshan copper bill of lading rose to $60. The COMEX premium over LME reached up to 28%, causing deliverable supplies to rush to North America [8][9]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices showed an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern last week. The high - tariff on US copper led to a sharp rise in COMEX copper, and cross - market arbitrage funds suppressed LME and SHFE copper. The Fed's possible interest rate cuts boosted market sentiment. US copper is restricted by inventory risks, LME copper will oscillate strongly, and SHFE copper will be weak in the short term. Overseas mines' resumption is difficult, and the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern [3][9]. - In terms of inventory, the global inventory continued to rebound. LME copper inventory increased, SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and bonded area inventory increased. The COMEX - LME premium led to the transfer of supplies to North America, and some imported copper will flow back to China in the future. The Shanghai - London ratio rose slightly to 8.12 [9][10]. - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs to August 1st and threatened to impose high - tariffs on copper. COMEX copper soared and then fell. US consumer inflation expectations have eased. Fed officials are divided on the impact of tariffs on inflation, and most believe there will be at least two interest rate cuts this year, but there are also officials who think the interest rate will remain unchanged. In China, June's CPI and core CPI increased, while PPI decreased, but some factors will drive price recovery [11]. - In terms of supply and demand, overseas mines' interruptions continue, and the domestic spot TC remains at - $45/ton. Under the negative processing fee, large and medium - sized smelters maintain production with by - product profits, while some small and medium - sized smelters face the risk of production reduction. On the demand side, power grid investment projects have started, the copper cable enterprise's operating rate in June decreased slightly, the orders of refined copper rod enterprises declined, the new energy vehicle production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the traditional industry supports the demand base [12]. Industry News - In May, Codelco's copper production was 130,100 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase; Escondida's production was 132,000 tons, a 24.4% year - on - year increase; Collahuasi's production was 38,400 tons, a 16.9% year - on - year decrease. In June, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.135 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production in the first half of the year was 6.6 million tons, a 11.4% cumulative year - on - year increase [14]. - Hudbay Minerals temporarily suspended the operation of Snow Lake due to wildfires in northern Canada, but expects to resume operations efficiently once the wildfire situation improves and still aims to achieve its annual guidance in Manitoba in 2025 [14]. - Capstone Copper obtained environmental approval for its $150 - million Mantoverde Optimized project in Chile, which will extend the mine's service life from 19 to 25 years and increase the annual copper - equivalent production from 97,000 - 112,000 tons to 125,000 - 135,000 tons [15]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 250 - 550 yuan/ton last week, with the highest price decreasing by 50 yuan/ton. The decline in domestic copper premiums and the operating rate of cable enterprises led to a decrease in the order scale of refined copper rod enterprises. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will continue to decline slowly in mid - to - late July [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that the gold market will continue to rise due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but the long-term supply-demand balance is expected to tighten [15]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate due to a tight supply situation, while antimony prices are projected to remain weak in the short term but supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 3.75%, outperforming other sectors [23]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+18.65%), magnetic materials (+11.28%), and silver (+8.35%) [23]. 2. Precious Metals - London gold price was $3352.10 per ounce, up $20.20 from July 4, with a 0.61% increase [34]. - London silver price reached $37.5 per ounce, increasing by 0.62% from July 4 [34]. - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's differing views on inflation may impact precious metals, but a bullish trend is anticipated [6][34]. 3. Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9640 per ton, down $240 from July 4, a decrease of 2.43% [41]. - Domestic aluminum price was 20760 RMB per ton, with a slight increase of 0.05% [42]. - The report highlights that short-term copper and aluminum prices may face downward pressure due to weak demand [15][41]. 4. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 266820 RMB per ton, down 0.37% from July 4 [43]. - Antimony price was 185500 RMB per ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.80% [15][43]. - The report suggests that while demand is weak, supply constraints may support tin prices in the future [15]. 5. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold, and in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [2]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures market: This week, the main rebar contract RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,132 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 2.23 million lots, a decrease of 7,200 lots. The main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,262 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 1.5971 million lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar shifted upward. As of July 11, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,150 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot-rolled coils shifted downward. As of July 11, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,180 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures-spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 67 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [10]. - Inter-month spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 28 yuan/ton, a change of +7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 10 yuan/ton, a change of +1 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Rebar-hot rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 139 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 121 yuan/ton, a change of +4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 22.94 percentage points year-on-year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week and an increase of 15,200 tons year-on-year [19]. - This week, the total weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.7272 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week. The effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month [19]. 3.2.2 Demand - Last week, the US government imposed a "tariff bomb" on 14 countries. US President Trump posted several letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot-rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off-season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino-US trade friction and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the implementation path of the off-season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 9.1401 million tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons week-on-week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.2557 million tons, an increase of 17,700 tons week-on-week. The total social + steel mill inventory was 13.3958 million tons, a decrease of 350 tons week-on-week. The overall inventory is at a low level compared to the same period, continuing a certain de-stocking trend [33]. 3.2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel increased slightly to 59.74%. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 3,262 yuan/ton. The steel price trend was relatively strong, and the price increase of rebar in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. Profits have rebounded. The average profit of steel mills was -107 yuan/ton, and the valley electricity profit was -4 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton week-on-week [44]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billet increased by 24 yuan/ton to 2,983 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 23 yuan/ton to 748 yuan/ton [53]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [56]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [56].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by increased trade uncertainties due to new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, alongside escalating geopolitical risks related to Russia and Ukraine, and diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [3][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Uncertainty and Tariffs - The Trump administration has announced significant tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, Canada, and Brazil, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%, effective August 1 [3]. - Historical data indicates that during periods of escalating trade tensions, gold prices typically rise, as seen in the current market response to these tariff announcements [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. Congress is advancing a bill imposing punitive tariffs of 500% on countries purchasing Russian energy, targeting major clients like India and China, which could exacerbate geopolitical tensions [4]. - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with U.S. military support for Ukraine, has heightened geopolitical risk, further driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some fearing prolonged inflationary pressures, while others see it as a temporary spike [6]. - Market expectations for potential interest rate cuts are influencing gold prices, with indications that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2025, aligning with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the resistance level of $3,350 per ounce, indicating a strong bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting further upward potential [7]. - The price is currently consolidating within a range of $3,353 to $3,374 per ounce, with a key support level at $3,343 per ounce [7].