上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包 ， 优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 特朗普"极限施压"美联储降息的真实目的曝光。 《华尔街日报》资深央行记者Greg Ip在最新发布的文章中表示，美国总统特朗普要求美联储降息的目的是， 希望通过更低的利率来满足自己的财政优先策略。文章警告称，这种"财政主导"模式往往导致通胀、危机和经 济停滞的"危险组合"。 7月7日，美国财长贝森特表示，市场可能在将特朗普的降息观点计入价格。贝森特认为，今年剩下的时间将会 降息两次。关键不仅在于美联储主席鲍威尔，更在于整个联邦公开市场委员会。 同日， 特朗普贸易顾问纳瓦罗表示，美联储主席鲍威尔维持政策利率不变的做法正在造成严重伤害。 纳瓦罗 呼吁美联储理事会干预鲍威尔的立场。纳瓦罗还表示，鲍威尔导致收入损失和利息支出增加。 特朗普的真实目的 7月6日消息，《华尔街日报》资深央行记者Greg Ip发表文章称，特朗普近期密集要求美联储主席鲍威尔降 息，他希望通过更低的利率来满足自己的财政优先目标，为美国国会刚通过的减税法案提供更便利的融资支 持。 Greg Ip表示，特朗普正试图打破预算赤字与利率之间的传统联系。传 ...

Group 1: Core Aspects of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is considered the most significant economic legislation during Trump's presidency, extending tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that were set to expire in 2025 [2][4] - The act primarily continues existing tax policies rather than introducing new substantial tax cuts, preventing a significant increase in personal income tax rates post-2025 [2][4] - The Republican Party traditionally advocates for tax cuts to stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and increase national income, based on the belief that lower taxes enhance corporate profitability and investment [2][4] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Government Debt Implications - The act is projected to add $3 trillion to $4 trillion in additional fiscal deficits over the next decade, exacerbating the already high government debt, which is expected to reach nearly $36 trillion by 2024 [6][10] - The U.S. federal government's fiscal deficit is anticipated to reach 6.6% of GDP in 2024, marking a historical high, with debt interest payments surpassing defense spending [6][9] - Economic studies suggest that the growth effects from tax cuts may not sufficiently offset the revenue losses, with estimates indicating that only about one-third of the revenue loss from tax cuts can be compensated through economic growth [5][6] Group 3: Income and Wealth Distribution Effects - The act is expected to provide $1 trillion in tax benefits to the wealthiest 1% of Americans over the next decade, while low-income individuals may suffer from reduced healthcare and government benefits [11][13] - This disparity in benefits is likely to exacerbate income and wealth inequality in the U.S., posing challenges to the political system [11][13] Group 4: Indirect Effects on China - In the short term, the act may benefit the Chinese economy by increasing U.S. demand for Chinese products as trade tensions ease, aiding China's transition from external to internal demand [14] - The act's cancellation of subsidies for renewable energy sectors may slow the development of the U.S. renewable energy industry, but its direct impact on China's electric vehicle sector is expected to be limited [14] Group 5: Broader Economic and Political Implications - The act introduces significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of U.S. federal finances, with long-term economic growth effects remaining unclear [10][18] - The political dynamics surrounding the act's implementation and its impact on Trump's influence and authority are uncertain, as they will evolve with the economic and electoral landscape [17][18]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/08 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 变化 -5 -222 ...

机构分析认为，法案进一步提升美国未来债务压力，预计这将导致中长期长端美债利率中枢上行。 受关税方面消息影响，美国股市主要股指7日全线下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.94%，标准普尔500 种股票指数下跌0.79%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.92%。 欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔7日表示，欧盟仍在争取于7月9日前与美国达成一项原则性的双边贸易协 议，目前欧盟与美国仍在继续接触。 吉尔说，欧盟始终致力于达成一项有利于欧盟企业、消费者和全球经济的协议。此外，欧盟也已准备好 应对所有结果的选项，包括反制清单，但暂不打算启动该程序。 新华财经北京7月8日电美国国债收益率周一（7月7日）延续涨势，10年期美债收益率涨3.36个基点，报 4.38%；2年期美债收益率涨1.46个基点，报3.89%。2年期与10年期美债利差走阔约2个基点。超长期美 债收益率涨幅超过4个基点，收益率曲线趋向陡峭。 特朗普7月4日签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，标志着这一备受争议的法案正式成为法律。 美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40% 不等的关税。特朗普在信中警告上述国家领导人称，如果想 ...

特朗普"极限施压"美联储降息的真实目的曝光。 7月6日消息，《华尔街日报》资深央行记者Greg Ip发表文章称，特朗普近期密集要求美联储主席鲍威尔降 息，他希望通过更低的利率来满足自己的财政优先目标，为美国国会刚通过的减税法案提供更便利的融资支 持。 Greg Ip表示，特朗普正试图打破预算赤字与利率之间的传统联系。传统经济学理论认为，大规模借贷会推高 利率，从而抵消减税带来的好处。但特朗普的策略是通过向美联储施压，强制降低利率来配合其财政政策目 标。 文章警告称，这种"财政主导"模式在历史上通常与阿根廷等新兴市场的弱央行相关联，往往会导致通胀、危机 和经济停滞的组合。然而，在短期内，这种模式可能会成为强有力的经济刺激手段，这也解释了美股市场在此 预期下不断创出历史新高。 《华尔街日报》资深央行记者Greg Ip在最新发布的文章中表示，美国总统特朗普要求美联储降息的目的是， 希望通过更低的利率来满足自己的财政优先策略。文章警告称，这种"财政主导"模式往往导致通胀、危机和经 济停滞的"危险组合"。 7月7日，美国财长贝森特表示，市场可能在将特朗普的降息观点计入价格。贝森特认为，今年剩下的时间将会 降息两次。关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's maintains Israel's long-term local and foreign currency rating at Baa1, warning that direct military conflict with Iran will further increase fiscal pressure [1] Group 1: Rating and Fiscal Pressure - Moody's indicates that geopolitical risks have led to a weakening of Israel's fiscal situation since October 2023 [1] - The agency expects Israel's debt-to-GDP ratio to peak at around 75% in the medium term due to increased defense spending and slowing economic growth [1] - Prior to the onset of military conflict with Iran, Moody's had projected this ratio to peak at 70% [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean National Assembly recently passed a supplementary budget of approximately 31.8 trillion KRW (about 31.8 trillion KRW equals 100 billion RMB) to stimulate economic recovery amid challenges such as weak consumption and rising trade risks due to the US's so-called "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - The supplementary budget is expected to increase South Korea's GDP growth rate by 0.14 to 0.32 percentage points, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays raising their GDP growth forecasts to around 1% [2] - The budget includes 12.17 trillion KRW for consumer vouchers and 10.3 trillion KRW to cover tax revenue shortfalls, along with debt relief measures for small and micro enterprises [1] Group 2 - Concerns are rising regarding the increasing fiscal burden, as the total fiscal expenditure in 2025 is projected to reach 703.3 trillion KRW, with government debt as a percentage of GDP rising from 48.4% to 49.1% [2] - The supplementary budget was passed just before the deadline for US tariff negotiations, with South Korean officials engaging in discussions with US counterparts regarding tariff exemptions [2]

Group 1 - Germany is planning to provide billions of euros in subsidies to energy-intensive industries as part of Chancellor Merz's commitment to enhance the competitiveness of German heavy industry, with an estimated investment of around €4 billion [1] - The number of German companies eligible for electricity price subsidies is set to increase from 350 to 2,200, aimed at reducing electricity costs for industrial enterprises [1][2] - The German government emphasizes that supporting industrial enterprises is crucial for maintaining employment amid weak economic growth [1][2] Group 2 - The subsidy plan will cover up to 50% of electricity costs for companies over the next three years, particularly benefiting the chemical, glass, and plastics industries [2] - The plan aligns with the new EU state aid framework, which allows member states to subsidize industrial electricity costs to aid decarbonization efforts [2] - There is ongoing debate regarding the electricity subsidy, with some factions arguing for broader relief measures that include households and smaller businesses [2][4] Group 3 - The expansion of the subsidy reflects Germany's increased support for its industrial sector, particularly in light of significant job losses in the past year [3] - The chemical industry, seen as a barometer for the economy, has shown improved business sentiment, with the business climate index rising significantly [3] - However, there are concerns that the subsidy may undermine incentives for long-term renewable energy contracts and could negatively impact small businesses [4] Group 4 - Germany has one of the highest electricity prices globally, with an average price of €0.38 per kWh in the first quarter of this year [5][6] - The current electricity tax structure places a heavier burden on households compared to industrial users, raising concerns about the government's commitment to reducing energy costs for the public [6] - The new spending plans may conflict with EU fiscal rules, as Germany's federal deficit is projected to increase significantly over the coming years [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. labor market, economic policies under the Trump administration, and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" on the economy. Core Insights and Arguments - **Labor Market Risks**: The decline in labor participation rates, particularly among youth and older populations, indicates potential risks in the labor market despite a decrease in unemployment rates. The unemployment rate may rise in the future, with projections suggesting it could reach 4.4%-4.5% by the end of the year, exceeding the natural unemployment rate level [1][6][10]. - **Non-Farm Payroll Adjustments**: Significant downward revisions are expected for the non-farm employment data for Q1 2025, with monthly adjustments potentially reaching 70,000 to 80,000 jobs. This aligns with a slowdown in private non-farm income due to reduced working hours and declining wages [3][4]. - **Impact of Government Policies**: The Trump administration's immigration restrictions have temporarily lowered unemployment rates but may hinder long-term demand and GDP growth. The tax cuts have stimulated short-term demand, but the overall impact on employment growth remains uncertain [9][11]. - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions**: There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of two cuts within the year, influenced by the current labor market conditions and fiscal policies [10][20]. - **Economic Implications of the "Great Beautiful Act"**: The act, signed on Independence Day, is expected to have short-term economic effects, but its long-term impact requires further analysis, particularly on various sectors such as services and manufacturing [7][8]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Debt and Deficit Projections**: The new fiscal legislation is projected to expand the deficit to approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, with a potential debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 130% by 2033, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [11][13][15]. - **Sector Performance in A-Share Market**: The A-share market shows strong sentiment, particularly in sectors like non-bank financials, insurance, and consumer goods, which are expected to perform well due to supportive earnings and favorable valuations [21][22]. - **Macroeconomic Policy Directions in China**: Future macroeconomic policies in China will focus on stabilizing the real estate market, expanding domestic demand, and promoting technological innovation, which are crucial for overall economic stability [23][24]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Long-term investment potential is identified in sectors such as energy, basic chemicals, and consumer electronics, with a focus on areas that exhibit strong earnings support and favorable valuations [24][25][26].

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising by $62.76 or 1.92% for the week ending July 4, marking the best performance in three weeks [1] - The rise in gold prices was driven by uncertainties in trade negotiations and concerns over fiscal risks associated with the "Big and Beautiful" plan, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening dollar [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, which overshadowed some of the positive momentum in the gold market [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" remains, with President Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs of up to 70% on certain goods, which has attracted safe-haven buying in gold [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to increase the existing $36.2 trillion national debt by $3.4 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the stability of the debt market [4] - Speculative long positions in gold are increasing, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reporting an increase of 7,918 contracts to a total of 443,920 contracts as of July 4 [6]