丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 震荡市，寻找可能的边际变化 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当前债市震荡行情已经维持较长时间，债市为何震荡——当前债市的估值偏贵，这使得债市难 以对一般的利好信息进行定价反映；债市将出现哪些边际变化——债市对中美贸易摩擦已逐渐 脱敏，当前资金价格已基本接近上沿，且当前债市对基本面的变化也并不十分敏感。预计在稳 增长政策出台前债市收益率整体依然震荡下行，建议 10 年期国债收益率在 1.65%-1.7%之间逢 调配置，另外关注短端同业存单的配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-06-04 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title2] 震荡市，寻找可能的边际变化 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 今年以来债市的典型特点是快速走完行情+随后长时间窄幅震荡，直到后一个超预期事件发生， 债市再次短时 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese airlines are negotiating a significant order for hundreds of Airbus aircraft, marking a potential shift in the aviation market dynamics between China and the U.S. [2][5] Group 1: Potential Order Details - The ongoing negotiations may involve approximately 300 aircraft, with estimates ranging from 200 to 500 units [5] - The deal could include a substantial number of wide-body aircraft, particularly the A330neo model [6] - If finalized, this order could become the largest aircraft purchase in China's history and rank among the largest globally [6] Group 2: Market Context - Boeing has not secured any major orders from China since 2017, facing challenges due to trade tensions and safety concerns surrounding the 737 Max [6][7] - In contrast, Airbus has been gaining a competitive edge in the Chinese market, highlighted by a previous order of about 300 single-aisle aircraft valued at approximately $37 billion in 2022 [6] - The evolving trade policies under both the Biden and Trump administrations have further pushed China towards Airbus [7] Group 3: Implications of the Order - The potential deal is seen as a symbolic achievement for China-EU relations and may signal China's trade stance towards the U.S. [5] - The upcoming visit of European leaders to China could coincide with the finalization of this order, emphasizing the importance of this transaction [5][6] - The recovery of the global aviation industry and ongoing technological advancements will continue to influence the competitive landscape of the aerospace manufacturing sector [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product options market shows diverse trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a range - bound consolidation, with some varieties like beans and oils showing weak trends. Agricultural by - products maintain a volatile pattern, soft commodities like sugar are weak and cotton is in a high - level consolidation after a rebound, and grains like corn and starch are gradually warming up and then in a narrow - range consolidation [2]. - Overall, it is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures show various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybeans (A2507) is 4,122 with a decline of 8 and a decrease rate of 0.19%, and its trading volume is 7.27 million lots with a decrease of 1.62 million lots, and open interest is 12.92 million lots with a decrease of 0.46 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different option varieties are presented. For instance, the volume PCR of soybeans (A2507) is 0.61 with a change of 0.04, and the open interest PCR is 0.51 with a change of 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels are identified for each option variety. For example, the pressure level of soybeans (A2507) is 4,300 and the support level is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of different option varieties are given. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybeans (A2507) is 9.14%, and the weighted implied volatility is 14.95% with a change of 0.47% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options** - **Soybeans (A2507, B2509)**: Due to factors such as US - China trade disputes, normal spring - sowing weather, and weak export demand, US soybean futures prices are mainly in a downward trend. For soybeans (A2507), it is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal (M2507) and Rapeseed Meal (RM2507)**: The average daily trading volume of soybean meal has decreased significantly. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil (P2507), Soybean Oil (Y2507), and Rapeseed Oil (OI2507)**: The trading volume of oils is weak, and the inventory is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts (PK2510)**: With a weak demand and sufficient supply, it is recommended to construct a bull call spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Agricultural By - products Options** - **Pigs (LH2507)**: The domestic market shows an oversupply situation. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Eggs (JD2507)**: The supply is sufficient and the demand is weak. It is recommended to construct a bear put spread strategy for direction, a short bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and no spot hedging strategy is provided [12]. - **Apples (AP2510)**: The inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is recommended to construct a bear put spread strategy for direction, a short bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and no spot hedging strategy is provided [12]. - **Jujubes (CJ2509)**: In the off - season, prices are at a low level. It is recommended to construct a bear put spread strategy for direction, a short wide - straddle option combination strategy for volatility, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soft Commodities Options** - **Sugar (SR2507)**: The export situation from Brazil has changed, and prices are in a weak and volatile state. It is recommended to construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton (CF2507)**: The export volume of Brazil has decreased, and prices are in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Grains Options** - **Corn (C2507) and Starch (CS2507)**: Corn prices are affected by factors such as traders' behavior and wheat prices. It is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and no spot hedging strategy is provided for corn [14].

兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.04 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：橡胶、工业硅上方压力明确，烧碱延续弱势。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 低量能状态延续 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 周一 A 股市场低开高走，个股涨多跌少，沪深两市成交额维持 | | | | | | 在 1.16 万亿元左右。从行业来看，农林牧渔、银行板块领涨，家 | | | | | | 电、钢铁、煤炭行业跌幅居前。股指期货方面，小微盘风格带动 IC、 | | | | | | IM 走强，现货指数涨幅大于期货，贴水再度加深。 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | 近期关税政策的不确定性对市场风险偏好有所压制，资金量能 | 震荡 | | | | | 延续低位震荡，但在政策托底和耐心资本入市的不断推进下，A 股 | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | ...

II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 二人八人 人人 / 2017 00/01/0 / 2 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/6/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 를 | 现值 | 2073 | 1118 | 5172 | 1718 | 6243 | 1587 | | | 前值 | 1586 | 1107 | 3275 | 1720 | 4284 | 1317 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 30.68% | 0.92% | 57.92% | -0.12% | 45.73% | 20.50% | | 들 张 | | SC ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月04日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 员一 | 女女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆在低位震荡徘徊。明日国产大豆举行竞价采购专场,关注实际成交情况。从天气上看,短期东北地区 大部时段光温适宜，利于大豆等早田作物苗期生长。进口大豆方面。进口大豆方面国内供应端后续表观充裕, 主要是巴西大豆 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the provocative remarks made by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during the Shangri-La Dialogue, asserting that "the U.S. can defeat China" despite recent agreements on tariffs and trade issues [1][10][12] - Following Austin's comments, three other U.S. ministers also expressed anti-China sentiments, indicating a coordinated effort to challenge China's position [3][12][18] - The U.S. government's actions, including the imposition of high tariffs on 180 countries and regions, have led to significant backlash from China, resulting in a deterioration of U.S. economic conditions rather than the intended economic recovery [6][22] Group 2 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce criticized China for allegedly delaying trade commitments, while the Secretary of the Treasury emphasized reducing U.S. dependency on Chinese resources and technology [14][16] - The article highlights the U.S. ministers' focus on portraying China as a threat in various sectors, including education and technology, which reflects a broader strategy of economic and ideological confrontation [18][20] - China's response to the U.S. actions has been one of strong opposition, emphasizing its commitment to enhancing its own capabilities and warning the U.S. against escalating tensions [22][25][27]

Group 1 - The core issue of the news revolves around China's tightening control over rare earth exports, which may become a focal point in the next round of US-China negotiations [1][5] - China has implemented a comprehensive tracking system for rare earth flows to prevent illegal outflows, with specific tasks assigned to various provinces [1][4] - The scope of export controls is expanding, with new regulations introduced for 25 items in February and additional restrictions on heavy rare earths in April [3][4] Group 2 - The US has accused China of not adhering to the terms of the May 12 Geneva talks, leading to potential restrictions on chip design software and the sale of aircraft engines [5] - American companies, such as Ford, are facing production halts due to a lack of rare earth magnets, prompting executives to urge the White House for a restoration of rare earth exports from China [5][7] - India's automotive industry is also affected, with reports indicating that their rare earth magnet supplies are running low, risking production shutdowns for major car manufacturers [7] Group 3 - The US is actively seeking alternative rare earth suppliers, including investments in Brazil and partnerships with countries in Central Asia and Southeast Asia, but faces challenges due to China's technological superiority in rare earth processing [8] - The price gap for rare earths is widening, with significant profits from illegal smuggling, complicating enforcement efforts against illegal outflows [8] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are seen as a critical factor in the strategic management of rare earth resources, with China using this as leverage against US actions [10][11]

国这次把对中国商品的关税一口气提到245%，这波操作纯属狗急跳墙！ 他们原先盘算着中国会赶紧打电话求饶，结果电话没等来，等来的是中国的雷霆之怒。 这个场面就像赌徒红着眼把所有筹码推上桌，结果对面直接把整张赌桌掀翻，你玩命，我奉陪！ 4月15日香港举办的"全民国家安全教育日"开幕典礼上，中央港澳工作办公室主任、国务院港澳事务办公室主任夏宝龙当着全世界的面甩出重话： "中国人民深知，对待侵略者，就得用他们听得懂的语言同他们对话，这就是以战止战，以武止戈，用胜利赢得和平，赢得尊重。'打得一拳开， 免得百拳来'，无论是关税战、贸易战，还是其他什么战，我们更加没什么好怕的，天塌不下来。如果以为向美国献媚、向美国跪低、向美国求 饶就能够换来和平、换来尊重、换来发展，那是极其幼稚的。大家要丢掉幻想。" 这话虽然没点美国具体做了什么，但谁在南海成天晃悠军舰，谁在台海煽风点火，谁在不断抱着霸权主义思维挑衅，这都是有目共睹的。 中国这次直接把底牌摊开：当年朝鲜战场能打得你坐下谈判，今天照样能用实力教会你什么叫规矩。 这次表态可大有讲究。 过去碰上这种事，先出来说话的都是驻美大使或者外交部发言人。 现在中方高层亲自放话，摆明告诉美 ...

随着中美贸易谈判达成共识，双方同意暂停额外加征24%的关税90天，这让贸易商纷纷抓住这一"窗口 期"加快向美国发货，以规避未来关税可能再次上升的风险，从而导致美线运输需求激增。 中粮期货分析认为，未来集运远东至欧美航线可能呈现"弱现实修复与预期强化"的市场格局，由负反馈进 入正反馈阶段：预期增强带动市场供需的现实层面改善，形成相互促进。美线方面，由于货量集中发运、 对未来的担忧引发的抢运、旺季到来的季节性需求增加以及美国整体的补库需求叠加，市场将面临供不应 求的局面，运力紧张（船公司调回美线运力需时间）。欧线则因美线分流，运力压力有所缓解，中欧经济 需求的边际修复及旺季预期逐步回升。 根据上海航运交易所数据显示，截至5月30日，中国至美国西海岸和东海岸的运价分别达到5172美 元/FEU和6243美元/FEU，较前一周分别上涨57.9%和45.7%。宁波航运交易所的数据显示，截至5月30 日，中国至美西航线运价涨幅高达89.23%，至美东航线上涨69.7%。 上海航运交易所指出，北美航线运价的飙升，主要受"抢出口"推动，运输需求持续高位，总体运力规模基 本恢复到关税战前水平，但舱位供给依然紧张，部分港口甚至出 ...