动力煤市场供应充足，但电力需求疲软，新能源装机加速，拉尼娜现象 转换导致夏季气温或不及预期，多重因素叠加使得短期内动力煤价格难 有乐观表现，即使企稳也仅是阶段性因素导致，反弹力度有限。 电厂库存偏高，或延续旺季不旺的走势。即使七八月份库存去化，9 月 份可能出现小幅涨价，但难以突破 700 元。整体对全年煤价行情保持谨 慎，预计在较弱状态中震荡。 长协执行条件松动，现货紧缺缓解，煤价定价更市场化。在整体基本面 偏宽松的情况下，非电行业工业需求对煤价的反弹支撑减弱，对工业端 需求带来的季节性涨价持保守态度。 若动力煤价格反弹，幅度可能仅几十元，难以超过 700 元。大反弹需进 口减量、宏观利好、水电下降和极端天气同时出现。贸易商对后市谨慎 悲观，电厂补库积极性不高。 火电表现弱于预期，可能导致达峰时间提前。预计今年是煤价最低的一 年，未来价格或回升。难以复刻 2021-2022 年的周期上行，但全球对 能源安全担忧或支撑煤价。 对话期货专家：如何展望动力煤价格底部及后市走势？ 20250521 摘要 Q&A 动力煤价格近期下跌的原因是什么？短期内动力煤价格底部预计会是多少，什 么时候可能出现？ 今年动力煤价格持 ...

Supply Side - The increase in supply is driven by the rise in the number of pigs being marketed, as farmers are increasing their slaughter rates due to lower prices for fattened pigs compared to benchmark pigs [1] - The second and third quarters are expected to see an increase in sow productivity, leading to greater supply pressure in the medium term [1] Demand Side - Terminal demand is declining, with slower sales of pork and a decrease in slaughterhouse operating rates; however, some regions are still experiencing passive inventory accumulation [1] - There may be a temporary increase in demand due to preparations for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [1] Price Movement - Overall, the increase in supply from farmers is causing prices to fluctuate and trend weakly, with the live pig futures contract (2509) down by 0.26% and trading below the moving average [1] - The market is advised to monitor the situation regarding the number of pigs being marketed, as prices may face further downward pressure [1]

方正证券认为，从长期来看，当前黄金的价格在阶段性回调后有望维持长期上涨趋势。当前黄金价格本 身已经处于较高位，同时近期随着外部事件暂缓，短期内可能引发部分投资者高位获利了解或央行放缓 黄金购买节奏，进而引发黄金价格的出现阶段性回调。但从中长期角度看，在美元信用下降、美联储降 息周期开启、全球央行持续增加购金的背景下，黄金在短期调整后有望继续维持长期上行趋势。 2.债券型ETF今年激增超900亿，多只信用债ETF规模已翻倍 一、ETF行业快讯 1.三大指数集体上涨，黄金股相关ETF领涨 今日，三大指数集体上涨，上证综指上涨0.21%，深证成指上涨0.44%，创业板指上涨0.83%。黄金股相 关ETF领涨，其中，黄金股ETF（159562.SZ）上涨4.85%，黄金股ETF（517520.SH）上涨4.63%，黄金 股票ETF基金（159322.SZ）上涨4.51%。电子板块多只ETF下跌，半导体龙头ETF（159665.SZ）下跌 1.19%，半导体ETF（159813.SZ）下跌1.15%，芯片50ETF（159560.SZ）下跌1.10%。 据智通财经，近年来，随着利率水平不断降低，投资者对低交易成本、高交 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent volatility in gold prices, likening it to a "roller coaster" and questioning whether investors should buy the dip or sell at the peak [1] - Gold prices have fluctuated significantly since April 2025, with a peak of over $3500 per ounce on April 22, followed by a decline to $3325 per ounce by May 9, representing a drop of over 9% [2] - Historical data indicates that gold price fluctuations are not uncommon, with notable increases and decreases occurring over the decades, such as the rise from approximately $35 per ounce in 1970 to nearly $900 per ounce in 1980, followed by a prolonged bear market [4] Group 2 - The historical patterns of gold price movements are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with demand for gold typically rising during economic downturns and falling during periods of economic prosperity [5] - Factors such as monetary policy and geopolitical tensions significantly influence gold prices, with recent events like U.S. tariff policies and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that the rapid increase in gold prices in April led to overbought conditions, indicating a potential for short-term price corrections [7] - Profit-taking by investors following the price surge has created selling pressure, contributing to the recent declines in gold prices [8] Group 4 - Citibank has lowered its three-month gold price target from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, expecting prices to stabilize between $3000 and $3300 per ounce [9] - UBS forecasts a 12-month target price of $3500 per ounce, with potential scenarios ranging from $3200 to $3800 depending on geopolitical risks and economic conditions [9] - Goldman Sachs projects a year-end target price of $3700 per ounce, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased central bank gold purchases [10] Group 5 - Historical comparisons suggest that the current macroeconomic environment bears similarities to the 1970s, indicating that gold may experience a period of adjustment and consolidation following significant price increases [12] - The analysis of past price movements indicates that after a substantial rise, gold prices may stabilize or experience fluctuations for several months before resuming an upward trend [12] Group 6 - Investors are advised to adopt different strategies based on their investment horizons, with long-term investors encouraged to maintain a 15%-20% allocation to gold in their portfolios, while short-term traders should monitor technical levels for potential buying opportunities [14]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold jewelry retail prices have returned to over 1000 yuan per gram, indicating a significant increase in gold prices in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - As of May 21, the retail price of gold jewelry in China has surpassed 1000 yuan per gram, with Lao Miao Gold reporting 1004 yuan per gram, an increase of 27 yuan from the previous day, and Liufu Jewelry at 1008 yuan per gram, up by 26 yuan [1]. - Other brands such as Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Sheng Sheng also have their gold jewelry prices exceeding 1000 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: International Gold Prices - On May 21, the spot gold price exceeded 3300 USD per ounce for the first time since May 9, with a daily increase of 0.35%. COMEX gold reached 3316.8 USD per ounce, marking a daily rise of 0.61% [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influences - A surge in A-share gold concept stocks was observed, with Shan Jin International rising over 3%, alongside increases in other gold-related stocks such as Sichuan Gold and Shandong Gold [4]. - The comments from the Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, suggest a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, which may influence gold prices amid inflation and recession concerns [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Intelligence reports indicate potential military actions by Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities, contributing to market volatility and influencing gold price trends [5]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will experience high volatility in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, with a long-term upward trend driven by inflation concerns and central bank gold accumulation [5]. - UBS strategists expect the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates, which is a key factor supporting gold prices, with projections for gold to reach 3500 USD per ounce by the end of the year, and potentially 3800 USD per ounce in a risk-off scenario [6].

国内黄金品牌价格随之攀升，5月21日，周生生足金饰品报价为1007元/克，相比前日982元每克上涨25 元；老庙黄金足金饰品报价为1004元/克，相比前日977元每克上涨27元。 5月21日，伦敦现货黄金上破3300美元大关，为5月9日以来首次，日内涨0.3%。COMEX黄金期货收涨 1.83%，报3292.6美元/盎司。此前，国际金价出现回调，黄金连续下跌，从3500美元到跌破3200美元。 近日，国际金价走势似乎再度逆转，自5月19日以来，现货黄金有所上涨。 而在五一前，创下历史新高的国际金价曾迎来明显回调。5月7日以来，伦敦现货黄金价格从约3430美 元/盎司高点连续下挫，其中5月14日单日暴跌约72美元/盎司，单日跌幅2.23%。 对于金价回调，业内人士分析，中美两国在日内瓦经贸高层会谈后发表联合声明，宣布达成重要共识， 推升市场风险偏好，黄金明显承压回落。从投资需求维度看，自4月下旬以来，全球黄金ETF呈现一定 获利回吐下的流出迹象，是受贸易冲突、地缘冲突以及美联储降息预期降温等因素影响。 很快，国际金价出现逆转。 5月20日晚，现货黄金持续走高，突破3280美元/盎司，日内涨超1.6%。从5月21 ...

现货和期货价格同步维持跌势，但现货价格跌幅放缓，基差整体呈小幅走弱趋势。截至5月19日，SMM 电池级碳酸锂现货均价为6.37万元／吨，工业级碳酸锂均价为6.21万元／吨，环比跌幅分别为1.39%和 1.43%。整体上，现货市场心态偏悲观，交投观望情绪较浓。 库存高位施压。上周全环节库存整体小幅增加，其中上游冶炼厂库存累积明显，下游库存略有减少，其 他环节贸易商库存稳中小幅减少。根据SMM的数据，截至5月15日，样本周度库存总计13.19万吨，冶 炼厂库存为5.65万吨，下游库存为4.14万吨，其他环节库存为3.40万吨。SMM样本4月总库存为9.62万 吨，其中样本冶炼厂库存为5.10万吨，样本下游库存为4.52万吨。 供给宽松持续。虽然有部分上游企业在4月和5月进行了减停产，但随着上游陆续复产，叠加海外矿到港 量攀升，供应压力仍然显著，最新产量数据基本维持高位。另外，自云母提锂产能复产以来，上游供应 稳步增长，各原料提锂投产节奏稳定，在一体化降本趋势下，上游难以快速出现大规模减停产。 近日碳酸锂期货盘面持续走弱，空头氛围有所强化。截至5月20日收盘，碳酸锂主力合约2507已下跌至 6.086万元／吨。一方 ...

方正证券则表示，当前黄金价格本身已经处于较高位，同时近期随着美国发起的贸易战等外部事件暂缓，短期内可能引 发部分投资者高位获利了结或央行放缓黄金购买节奏，进而引发黄金价格出现阶段性回调。但从中长期角度看，美元信 用下降、美联储降息周期开启、全球央行持续增加购金的背景下，黄金在短期调整后有望继续维持长期上行趋势。 5月12日，花旗发布报告，将未来三个月黄金目标价从每盎司3500美元大幅下调至3150美元，降幅高达10%。 此外，花旗对短期金价走势给出了明确区间预测：预计未来一段时间黄金价格将在每盎司3000—3300美元区间内震荡整 理。这一预测区间较此前明显收窄，反映出在当前复杂多变的市场环境下，黄金价格波动将趋于理性化。 黄金价格再度飙涨。5月21日上午9点左右，现货黄金上破3300美元/盎司大关，为5月9日以来首次。随后价格有所回 落，截至智通财经发稿，现货黄金报3292.59美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，地缘冲突升温，叠加美国一季度GDP负增长，避险需求提升，带动金价反弹。 自5月19日以来，现货黄金有所上涨。而在"五一"前，创下历史新高的国际金价曾迎来明显回调。5月7日以来，伦敦现 货黄金价格从约343 ...

| 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5月20日 | 品种 | | 5月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | | 14900 | 15000 | -100 | -0.67% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | | -40 | -5 | -35 | -700.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | | 14600 | 14650 | -50 | -0.34% | | | 非标价差 | | -340 | -352 | 15 | 4.23% | | | 品种 | | 5月20日 | 5月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | | 54.00 | 54.15 | -0.15 | -0.28% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 62.75 | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | | 62.50 | 0.25 | 0.40% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | | 13200 | 13200 | 0 | 0.00% ...

5月21日，现货黄金上破3300美元大关，为5月9日以来首次。截至9：37，报3290.40美元/盎司。 另据央视新闻，受国际信用评级机构穆迪下调美国主权信用评级影响，美国国债遭遇大规模抛售。当地 时间19日，30年期美国国债收益率飙升，盘中一度突破5%。与此同时，10年期美债收益率19日盘中突 破4.5%。 中泰证券指出，短期内关税博弈短期缓和的预期等因素对金价存在压制。中长期来看，十年期美债的真 实收益率处于过去十年的高位区间，美国经济逐步走向滞胀，美元信用体系的重塑已经成为趋势，金价 有望持续走高， 方正证券也认为，从长期来看，当前黄金的价格在阶段性回调后有望维持长期上涨趋势。当前黄金价格 本身已经处于较高位，同时近期随着外部事件暂缓，短期内可能引发部分投资者高位获利了解或央行放 缓黄金购买节奏，进而引发黄金价格的出现阶段性回调。但从中长期角度看，在美元信用下降、美联储 降息周期开启、全球央行持续增加购金的背景下，黄金在短期调整后有望继续维持长期上行趋势。 最新消息面上，据央视新闻，当地时间5月20日，记者获悉，有多名美国官员透露说，美国获取的情报 显示，以色列可能正在准备对伊朗核设施发动打击。 相关E ...