证券研究报告 | 固收点评报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 07 日 降准降息落地，债市利好或出尽 ——5 月 7 日金融监管国新办新闻发布会点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表 2：2025 年初以来同业存单利率走势 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 4页 图表 1：2025 年初以来，DR001 及 DR007 利率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 图表 3：各期限国债收益率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会上监管推出一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 联系人 降准降息落地。为落实 4 月下旬政治局会议部署，应对高关税对经济的潜在冲击，5 月 7 日金融监管层在国新办新闻发布会上推出了一揽子金融政策，将助力经济稳增 ...

21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况。会上明确，将推出多项增量政策，稳楼市是重要的着力点，其中下调政策利率、降 低公积金利率、完善与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度等关注度颇高。 在降低利率方面，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在会上表示，将下调政策利率0.1个百分点，预计带动贷款 市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点；降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，五年期以 上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%，其他期限利率同步调整，预计每年将节省居民公积金贷款利息支出超 过200亿元。 金融监管总局局长李云泽在发布会上表示，加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，包括 房地产开发、个人住房、城市更新等贷款管理办法，指导金融机构继续保持房地产融资稳定，有效满足 刚性和改善性住房需求，强化对高品质住房的资金供给。 另外，在业内人士看来，会上提出的降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点、将保障性住房再贷款等结构性货 币政策工具利率下调0.25个百分点等，也有助于持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 首套公积金贷款利率降至2.6% 潘功胜谈到， ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the 5-year and above first home rate from 2.85% to 2.6%, which is expected to reduce housing costs for residents and stimulate the real estate market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The reduction in the housing provident fund loan rate is part of a broader strategy to narrow the interest rate gap between provident fund loans and commercial loans, enhancing the effectiveness of the provident fund policy [2][3]. - The policy rate was also lowered by 0.1 percentage points, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2]. Group 2: Impact on Housing Market - The reduction in loan rates is anticipated to alleviate the high actual mortgage rates faced by residents, which is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [3]. - As of April 2025, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the end of 2024, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4]. Group 3: Financial Support for Real Estate - The approval amount for "white list" loans in the real estate sector has increased to 6.7 trillion yuan, reflecting efforts by financial institutions to support the financing needs of real estate companies [4]. - The central bank is expected to continue implementing supportive policies for the real estate sector, aiming to balance supply and demand in the housing market [4].

广东省人民政府办公厅发布关于印发广东省提振消费专项行动实施方案的通知，有序减少消费限制。用 好房地产调控自主权，督促指导各地全面梳理现行购买、转让、信贷、定价等方面的限制性措施，因城 施策进行取消或调整，促进房地产市场止跌回稳。鼓励广州、深圳进一步放宽车辆购买限制， 增发购 车指标，引导深圳推行"久摇不中"个人可直接申领普通车指标的做法，推动汽车等消费由购买管理向使 用管理转变。保障各类经营主体平等参与社会集团采购，不得变相设置所有制、商户评级等采购门槛。 支持大型商贸企业在完善相关审批许可手续后利用自有场地进行外摆促销，适当允许车辆停靠、增加夜 间停车位和出租车候车点。 ...

Core Insights - The data from Guangzhou's Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau indicates a significant increase in the number of visits and purchases of new residential properties during the May Day holiday period compared to pre-holiday levels [1] Group 1: Visitor and Purchase Metrics - From May 1 to May 5, the number of visits to major new residential projects in Guangzhou reached 31,466 groups, representing a daily average increase of 181.8% compared to the pre-holiday average [1] - The number of property purchases during the same period was 2,093 units, with a daily average increase of 244.7% compared to the pre-holiday average [1] - Year-on-year comparisons show that the number of visits to new residential projects increased by 30%, while the purchase volume rose by 73% [1] Group 2: Transaction Volume - During the May Day holiday, the total area of new residential property transactions in Guangzhou was 79,900 square meters, reflecting a 4.6% increase compared to the same holiday period in 2024 [1] - Specifically, the area of new residential property signed online was 70,100 square meters, which represents a year-on-year growth of 35.9% [1]

Group 1 - The real estate sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares experienced a significant rally on May 7, with notable stock price increases for companies such as Jin Hui Holdings (up 21.9%) and Zhongliang Holdings (up 7.06%) [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, along with a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [2] - The reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points is projected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest, supporting rigid housing demand and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 2 - Following the "May Day" holiday, there was a surge in property subscriptions in various cities, with Shenzhen seeing a 23.89% year-on-year increase in new housing subscriptions during the holiday [3] - The introduction of high-quality projects in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou is expected to stimulate demand for improved housing and facilitate market recovery in May [3] - Major financial institutions are increasingly optimistic about the Chinese real estate market, with reports indicating a favorable policy environment and potential recovery in core cities [3]

业 研 究 建筑材料 4 月地产销售热度回落，预期后续政策走强 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 央行副行长在国新办新闻发布会上披露，一季度个人住房贷款增 2200 亿，同比多增超 2000 亿；武汉发布九条购房新政，重点提及加大金融支持 力度，加大"以旧换新"收购力度，二孩、三孩家庭在武汉市范围内购买 新建商品房的，分别发放 6 万元、12 万元购房补贴；南京房票新政正式出 台，有效期 2 年；广州南沙率先落地买房送学位，南沙区房源超市首批 1 亿元房源上架，推进房票安置模式；重庆发布《提振消费专项行动实施方 案（征求意见稿）》，提出要多渠道筹资建保障性及租赁住房，推进城中 村和危旧房改造； 昆明 5 月 6 日起上调住房公积金贷款最高额度，双缴存 人家庭从 80 万上调至 100 万；四川遂宁宣布自 5 月起主城区购买自住住房 的双缴存人最高公积金贷款额度提升至 100 万；广东韶关住房公积金最高 贷款额度提升至 80 万。短期来看：1）稳增长压力下，4 月政治局会议再 次强调稳地产；2）全球贸易战升级背景下，扩内需和促投资的迫切性进一 步提升；3）万科风险逐步释缓，地产信用底部修复利好建材板 ...

货币政策持续支持购房需求释放 [Table_ReportType] ——房地产行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 我国房地产市场仍有较大发展空间，自去年 9 月政治局会议 以来商品房销售端呈现止跌回稳态势，此次公积金贷款利率 下调将进一步打开个人住房商业贷款利率的调整空间，降低 购房成本，同时，此次一揽子货币政策将进一步提振市场信 心，改善居民收入预期，我们预计后续政策端仍将保持持续 宽松，并不断出台相关优化政策，巩固房地产市场稳定态 势。当前海外市场需求不确定性较大，在更大力度促进消 费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环的背景下，促进住房消费将 是重要着力点，预计收储、城市更新等政策将不断优化并加 快落地，更多增量政策仍值得期待，房地产行业有望在政策 的持续支持下保持稳定态势。二级市场投资方面，建议关注 ①受益于供给侧出清的优质央国企背景房企；②受益于收储 政策的相关个股；③行业止跌回稳预期下具有困境反转预期 的个股的交易性机会。 事件：5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行、国 家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一 揽 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market - In Q1 2023, the balance of real estate loans increased by over 750 billion yuan, with new personal housing loans reaching the largest quarterly increase since 2022, and housing rental loans growing by 28% year-on-year [1][3] - The financial regulatory authority is implementing a series of financing systems to support the stability of the real estate market, including managing loans for real estate development, personal housing, and urban renewal [3][4] - The "white list" loans approved by commercial banks have increased to 6.7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of over 16 million residential units, which is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [3] Group 2: Capital Market Stability - The financial regulatory authority plans to expand the pilot scope for long-term investment of insurance funds, injecting more incremental capital into the market [1][2] - Adjustments to regulatory rules will lower the risk factors for stock investments by insurance companies by 10%, encouraging greater market participation [1][2] - Recent international investment institutions have recognized the investment value of the Chinese real estate market, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [3] Group 3: Policy Measures and Support - The financial regulatory authority will introduce a package of policies to support financing for small and private enterprises, enhancing the financing coordination mechanism [2] - New policies will be developed to support foreign trade development, providing targeted services to businesses affected by tariffs [2][4] - The authority aims to revise and implement management measures for merger loans to facilitate industrial transformation and upgrading [2]

【1】青岛住房"以旧换新" 实施步骤发布 5月6日，青岛市住房和城乡建设局发布关于进一步明确住房"以旧换新"实施步骤的通知。通知指出，各 区(市)住建部门按规定将实施主体收购的本辖区旧房、换房人新购住房明细等材料报送至市住房城乡建 设局，市住房城乡建设局汇总后，统一在官网公示5个工作日。公示无异议后，按照规定程序申报一次 性收购补助资金，并拨付给实施主体。 5月6日，长春公积金官微发布消息，长春市住房公积金管理委员会对部分贷款和提取政策优化调整。其 中，长春市对多子女家庭贷款政策进行调整，第二次使用住房公积金贷款且生育抚养二孩及以上的多子 女家庭，单笔贷款最高额度可上浮40%。 【5】机构：前4月TOP100企业拿地总额3608亿元，同比增长26.6% 5月6日，中指研究院发布2025年4月房企经营业绩显示，2025年1—4月，TOP100企业拿地总额3608亿 元，同比增长26.6%，增幅较上月减少4个百分点。4月热点城市土拍热度持续，22城2025年1—4月住宅 用地土地出让金同比增长超四成。 【2】4月深圳二手房签约量6597套，同比增长33.5% 北京商报记者 王寅浩 李晗 5月6日，深圳市房地产中介 ...