证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 22 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 三大维度看，美债抛售风险有多大？ 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】三大维度看，美债抛售风险有多大？——20250521 【固定收益】收入改善，支出提速——4 月财政数据点评——20250521 【食品饮料】寻找生机，探索创新 ——食品饮料 2025 年中期策略—— 20250521 ◼ 研究视点 【医药生物】三生制药（01530.HK）-授权辉瑞 PD-1/VEGF 双抗，创新 管线未来可期——20250521 作者 | 分析师 宋嘉吉 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680519010002 | | | | | 邮箱：songjiaji@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 美容护理 | 11.7% | 17.1% | 5.0% | | 汽车 | 9.4% | 0.1% | 29.8% | | 家用电器 | 7.6% | 2.9% | 9.9% | | 电力设备 | 7 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent US-China trade negotiations, which resulted in a temporary suspension of tariffs and a reduction of certain tariffs, signaling a potential easing of trade tensions between the two countries [1][17] - The negotiations progressed faster than expected, with the US agreeing to only a 10% base tariff instead of the previously proposed 145% [1][4] - The US's approach to the negotiations reflects a sense of urgency from the Trump administration, as they seek to find a way to ease trade tensions without incurring further economic damage [2][5] Group 2 - The current trade situation is characterized by a significant imbalance, with the US imposing additional tariffs on China under the pretext of issues like fentanyl, which complicates the negotiation landscape [4][5] - The upcoming 90-day suspension period is seen as a critical window for China to leverage the US's impending debt crisis as a bargaining chip in future negotiations [10][11] - China's strategy in the negotiations is to maintain a strong position, recognizing that the trade war has impacted the US more significantly than it has affected China [5][17] Group 3 - The historical context of the negotiations indicates that previous experiences with the Trump administration have equipped China with better strategies to handle potential future confrontations [13][14] - The reliance of the US on Chinese supply chains, particularly in areas like rare earth materials, gives China leverage in the negotiations [14] - The overall sentiment is that while the recent negotiations represent a temporary victory for China, there remains a high level of uncertainty regarding future interactions with the Trump administration [9][17]

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：与贝森特的会谈并未直接讨论日本的美债持仓。 ...

2025年以来，美债波动风险加剧，30年期国债收益率更是在5月19日再次一度突破5.0%的历史高位。这 一变化不仅标志着美国财政可持续性的空前危机，更折射出全球对美元资产安全性的深刻质疑。在高达 36万亿美元的美债悬崖上，三大信用风险趋势——供需矛盾加剧、美元避险属性恶化以及长期低利率环 境逆转，相互叠加共振，正在持续积蓄美债市场不可逆的信用坍塌势能。 趋势一：美国国债供给端持续扩张与需求端结构性收缩的矛盾不断加剧。 供给端来看，财政赤字化使美国国债供应持续上升，且以短期滚动为主的发行结构增加了到期再融资规 模。美国国债存量规模从2008年金融危机前的不足10万亿美元激增至2025年的36万亿美元，年均增加 1.6万亿美元。其中，财政赤字常态化是核心驱动因素，2024财年美国财政赤字高达1.8万亿美元，财政 赤字率为6.3%。长期来看，美国财政赤字削减较为困难，财政收入端受特朗普减税法案预期有所承 压，财政支出端缩减也存在一定难度。为压缩财政支出，特朗普内阁成立了政府效率部（DOGE）进行 减支改革，但截至2025年4月，DOGE宣称已节省了1600亿美元，仅占当前财政赤字规模的不足10%， 也与此前承诺2万 ...

美股上演"黑色星期三"。 当地时间周三，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌1.91%，纳指跌1.41%，标普500指数跌1.62%，大型科技股普跌，特斯拉、苹果跌超2%，微软、亚马逊、 英伟达跌超1%，谷歌逆势涨近3%。 热门中概股多数收跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.72%。 百度收跌4.2%，小马智行跌3.6%，百胜中国和房多多至多跌2.9%。理想则涨3.2%，小鹏涨 12.6%，文远知行涨21.3%。 根据美国财政部发布的结果显示，当地时间周三20年美债最终得标利率是5.047%，比上个月的4.810%高出了约24个基点，这是史上第二次得标利率超过 5%。较预发行利率5.035%高出约1.2个基点，创下去年12月以来的最大尾部利差。 引发美股深度调整的关键因素，是当天美国国债拍卖表现疲软所引发的市场担忧情绪。 参考资料： 《20年期美债拍卖遇冷，美国股债汇应声齐跌》财联社 《20年期美债拍卖惨淡，得标利率突破5%，美债、美股盘中急跌》华尔街见闻 往期推荐 义乌老板催债，关税压垮的美国商人还不起1万美金 【 热门视频推荐 】 投标倍数也表现不佳，从4月份的2.63倍下滑至2.46倍，为2月份以来的最低水平，反映买 ...

金十数据5月22日讯，在美国20年期国债拍卖需求疲软的结果公布后，美国股债汇纷纷杀跌。德意志银 行分析师George Saravelos将市场的反应视为"外国买家对美债资产集体回避"的明确信号。他指出，外国 投资者"已不再愿以当前价格为美国政府提供资金"。融资成本的上升，正在对股市造成压力。除非共和 党提出的财政和解法案出现重大调整，否则美债的价值将不得不"大幅下降"，才可能重新吸引外国投资 者回归。受此影响，标普500指数日内跌幅扩大至1.5%，10年期美债收益率一度升至4.607%，为2月13 日以来的最高水平，美元指数跌0.5%。 20年期美债拍卖疲软引发股债汇杀跌，美债价值面临调整压力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has reignited concerns over US fiscal issues, leading to increased selling of US Treasury bonds [1][2] - The US government is pushing for a tax reform plan that aims to extend significant tax cuts from the Trump administration, which could result in over $4 trillion in tax cuts and at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade [2] - The combination of tariff policies and tax cuts is expected to impact the stability of the US economy and create unpredictable shocks to the financial system, prompting investors to express their concerns through the sale of US Treasuries [2] Group 2 - The deterioration of the US fiscal situation and increased economic uncertainty are causing sovereign funds and large investors to replace US Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, which may raise US financing costs and worsen the fiscal deficit [3] - The rise in US Treasury yields has not led to an increase in the dollar's value, indicating a continued outflow of long-term capital from the US [3] - Japan's bond market is also experiencing rising yields, with recent auctions for 30-year and 40-year bonds facing a lack of buyers, suggesting a failure of the yield curve control mechanism [3] Group 3 - The era of ultra-loose monetary policy in both the US and Japan may be coming to an end, which could have significant impacts on global capital markets and the real economy [4] - This external environment may lead to reduced external demand, potentially affecting exports from other countries, while also providing more autonomy for domestic monetary policies [4]

Core Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.607%, marking the highest level since February 13, with a reported yield of 4.583% [1] Group 1 - The increase in the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a significant shift in the bond market, reflecting investor sentiment and economic outlook [1]

20年期美债收益率升至5.104%，为2023年11月以来的最高水平，报5.103%。 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 10 basis points, reaching 5.07% [1] - The S&P 500 index declined by 1%, with sectors such as healthcare, real estate, financials, utilities, consumer discretionary, industrials, and energy dropping by more than 1.8% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 660 points, with a decline of 1.5%, and notable drops in component stocks like UnitedHealth (down 5.4%) and Nike (down 3.4%) [1] Group 2 - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 130 points, reflecting a 0.7% decrease [2] - The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index fell by 1.86%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by 0.7% [2] - The banking index experienced a decline of 2.2%, and the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap stocks, fell by 1.2% [2]