重估保险配置价值——保险行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250709 摘要 2024 年上半年保险行业实现超额收益，尽管新单增速放缓，但新业务 价值增长显著，表明行业整体盈利能力依然强劲。 短期内，保险行业的收益主要来源于估值提升，长期来看，内涵价值贡 献更大。当前 A 股和港股的估值反映出相对悲观的投资收益率假设，估 值百分位处于历史较低水平。 利差损风险较低，新单负债成本持续下降及费用改善，即使长期利率下 行，对上市头部险企的影响也有限，存量负债成本可控。 存量业务的合理估值水平可通过有效业务价值进行评估，该指标具有明 确的敏感性计算，且数值相对保守，能更准确反映企业价值。 基本面不会拖累当前保险行业的估值，报行合一趋势有利于头部公司提 升产品和服务竞争力，政策鼓励头部公司做大做强，储蓄型产品投资收 益是大公司优势。 头部公司在信用背书、渠道及竞争能力方面优势明显，市场份额有望显 著改善，进一步巩固其行业地位。 当前保险板块具备估值修复空间，负债端展望稳定。配置策略上，可选 择弹性较强的新华保险或港股标的，以及具备红利属性的中国平安和中 国太保。 Q&A 如何评价 2025 年上半年保险行业的表现？ ...

中国平安 20250710 摘要 中国平安 2025 年一季度寿险业务营业利润增长约 5%，全年预计维持 稳健，分红政策与营业利润挂钩，虽 2023 年盈利下滑，但每股分红仍 同比增长，连续三年未下降分红金额，预计未来几个季度净利润保持稳 健增长，分红维持稳定。 平安集团进行了寿险管理层调整，石伟玉任总经理，蔡挺任副董事长， 分管代理人及个险渠道发展，整体业务由蔡挺领导，实行矩阵式管理， 子公司向郭晓超汇报，新寿险基本法旨在稳定代理人队伍，提高产能， 二季度销售情况理想，三季度业绩好的代理人将获津贴和奖励。 2025 年一季度 NBV 增速达 35%，银保渠道增长迅猛，占比超 30%， 个险保持正增长，银保渠道战略调整效果显著，翻倍以上增长，二季度 银保趋势强劲，个险司庆版分红年金销售良好，NBEV margin 大幅提 升，预计全年 NBEV 将实现正增长。 2025 年一季度产险净利润下滑，因投资端受利率上行影响导致债券浮 亏，二季度利率回落，该因素影响减弱，承保端改善将带动盈利向好， 尽管去年投资收益基数较高，今年利润趋势难预测，但总体状态良好。 中国平安 2025 年的分红政策是否会有变化？在营业利润 ...

7月7日至11日，顾家家居全国购物中心816全民顾家日启动大会暨财富招商大会，在杭州主会场成功举 行，呼和浩特、成都分会场同步联动。本次大会深度聚焦购物中心渠道战略转型，通过趋势洞察、产品 革新、模式验证及生态赋能四大维度，为全国购物中心意向商与老商绘制清晰增长路径。 当前家居行业正经历深刻重构。传统卖场面临同质化竞争加剧等挑战，而购物中心凭借其"高频带低 频"的天然场景优势，成为撬动新增量的黄金入口。会上，顾家家居中国营销事业本部执行总经理林春 旺在主题演讲中指出："短期业绩不代表未来，核心在于能否抓住渠道变革的战略机遇。" 据悉，本次会议以"赢战新模式·打出新态势"为行动纲领，汇集全国200+家经销商代表，通过可复制的 商业模式验证、差异化产品矩阵及全域流量解决方案，为合作伙伴开辟第二增长曲线。 一、趋势定锚：解码消费变革，重塑渠道价值 大会首日，顾家购物中心举办了家居行业高定私享沙龙，其以"店态参观+行业趋势峰会"为核心，特邀 知名趋势营销专家肖明超、小红书家居行业平台专家烟幕，以及顾家家居用户洞察及场景力赋能负责人 尤珍等嘉宾分享家居趋势与用户洞察。活动聚焦行业前沿资源整合，参与者沉浸式体验购物中心最 ...

最美增江游一期启动区建设项目（简称：增江游项目），森林海旅游度假区项目（简称：森林海项 目），和从化区龙潭水库、麻村水库大水面生态养殖试点项目，这是7月10日刚刚在广州签约的3个水经 济项目，分别聚焦水系旅游、滨水休闲康养、湖库生态养殖3类业态。 南方财经记者郑玮 广州报道 7月10日，3个环"两山"水经济项目在广州增城举办的环"两山"水经济发展研讨会现场签约，计划总投资 额超过16亿元。同日，广东还发布了首批16宗环"两山"水经济储备项目，谋划业态覆盖滨水文旅、水上 运动、滨水休闲康养等多个领域，未来将陆续开启招商。 这是近年广东拓展水生态产品价值实现路径的一个新信号。 南方财经记者从广东省水利厅获悉，截至2025年初，广东全省已开展水经济试点项目115宗，其中省级 水经济试点项目16宗、市级试点项目68宗、县级试点项目31宗，并谋划储备总投资近1000亿元的水经济 新业态项目，投资主体以民企为主。 水经济新业态何以频频吸金？从价值转换路径看，水上运动、水系旅游、滨水康养、优质水开发、湖库 生态养殖等业态成为当前广东多地探索推进的水生态"变现"模式。其中，以水上运动、温泉康养等为代 表的体验式消费项目，颇受 ...

Macro Perspective - The recent rebound in US stocks has led to market divergence regarding future trends, with macroeconomic data from July showing stability but not significantly altering the fact that the US economy is slightly weakening [1] - Despite better-than-expected PMI and non-farm data in July, the overall economic trend remains weak due to external trade policy changes and other soft data [2] Tariff Impact - The introduction of reciprocal tariffs is expected to create a window for observing changes in capital flows in the third quarter, with potential for further capital inflow into US stocks in the fourth quarter [2] - The reciprocal tariff strategy primarily targets transshipment trade and may not apply to tariff issues with other developed countries, with a key decision point on August 1 [2] Valuation and Liquidity - US stock valuations remain relatively high, with many sectors trading above their 5-year and 10-year averages, indicating a potential overvaluation [3] - The "seven sisters" of US stocks have seen their valuation percentile drop to the 50% range, suggesting a slight correction in high valuations [3] Earnings Outlook - Current US stock performance is heavily reliant on earnings, particularly in the information technology and telecommunications sectors, which contribute significantly to the S&P 500's overall earnings [4] - Earnings growth forecasts for Q2 2025 have been revised down from 9.4% to 5.0%, indicating a slowdown in growth expectations due to economic conditions [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that not all investors need to chase market hotspots, as investment styles vary, with value investors focusing on company growth and reasonable pricing rather than market trends [1][2] - Investors should first assess their current stocks to determine if they are in an acceptable fluctuation or a declining trend, adopting a "day one" mindset to evaluate their willingness to buy the stock if they didn't already own it [2][3] - If investors decide to switch stocks, it should be done gradually and during market corrections rather than during strong rallies to mitigate risks [2][3] Group 2 - Recognizing market hotspots requires a certain level of experience and understanding, as investors need to justify their choices and timing for entering or exiting positions [3] - The decision to switch stocks should be based on a solid investment philosophy, with a focus on whether the investor genuinely believes in the selected investment strategy rather than impulsively jumping between different sectors [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Beijing office market remained relatively stable in Q2 2025, with technology companies leading in leasing activities, enhancing market liquidity and boosting confidence in the commercial real estate sector [1] - Domestic buyers continue to show strong interest in retail and office assets in Beijing, driven by the value gap effect of quality assets in core business districts and the ongoing release of self-use demand from enterprises, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure in the long term [1] - The high-end residential market saw significant growth in both supply and sales volume in the first half of the year, with approximately 3,300 new luxury apartments supplied in Q2, surpassing the total supply for the entire year of 2024, and Q2 sales reached about 2,100 units, marking the highest quarterly sales in the past two years [1] Group 2 - The monetary policy, including interest rate cuts in May, has created a relatively loose credit environment for the residential market, with expectations of a significant increase in new home transaction volumes compared to the previous year due to favorable market conditions and price advantages for buyers [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic selection of floors in real estate, highlighting how certain floors are perceived as more desirable due to various factors such as views, comfort, and cultural significance [2][5][6]. Floor Selection Insights - The "Phoenix Floor" (one floor below the top) is favored for its excellent views and privacy while avoiding issues like leaks and temperature extremes, making it a popular choice among investors [5]. - The "Golden Floor" (around the 20th floor in a 30-story building) is recognized as the best option for its balance of views and comfort, while also being associated with positive feng shui, leading to stable property prices and active transactions [5]. - The sixth floor, known as "Six Six Smooth," is preferred for its accessibility and pleasant views, making it suitable for families with elderly or young children [6]. - The eighth floor, referred to as "Prosperity," is in high demand and typically commands higher prices due to its favorable numerology [5]. - The ninth floor symbolizes nobility and offers good lighting and ventilation, while the seventh floor balances safety and light [6]. Additional Factors Influencing Real Estate Value - Location is paramount; purchasing older properties in city centers is often more advantageous than buying new developments in suburban areas [9]. - The quality of developers and property management significantly impacts property value, with good management enhancing value and poor management detracting from it [9]. - The availability of essential amenities should be assessed based on current conditions rather than future plans to ensure convenience [9]. Conclusion - It is crucial for buyers to make informed decisions based on personal circumstances rather than following trends, emphasizing the importance of comfort in living spaces [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that high-quality development is essential for building a modern socialist country, with the development of new quality productivity being a key focus for achieving this goal [1][2] - New quality productivity is seen as an important requirement for promoting high-quality development, necessitating a balance between nurturing new momentum and updating old momentum [1][2] - Xi Jinping's discussions on new quality productivity provide fundamental guidance and direction for accelerating its development, highlighting the need for scientific understanding of its historical perspective and value orientation [1][2] Group 2 - New quality productivity enriches the Marxist theory of productivity, emphasizing that the liberation and development of productivity are fundamental standards for measuring social progress [2][3] - The emphasis on technological progress within the Marxist productivity theory indicates that technology has become an independent and significant means of production, reinforcing the idea that innovation is central to new quality productivity [3][4] - The relationship between productivity and production relations is highlighted, indicating that the development of new quality productivity requires innovative approaches in both technology and management [5][6] Group 3 - The concept of new quality productivity underscores the need for a new type of production relationship that aligns with its development, advocating for comprehensive reforms to adapt to the evolving economic landscape [5][6] - The focus on enhancing total factor productivity as a core indicator of new quality productivity reflects a commitment to improving social productivity levels and the efficiency of wealth production [7][8] - The integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation is crucial for advancing new quality productivity, which is characterized by a significant increase in total factor productivity [7][8] Group 4 - The advancement of new quality productivity is linked to the necessity of establishing a new type of production relationship that is compatible with its development, emphasizing the importance of systemic reforms [14][15] - The role of new-type laborers, including scientists and engineers, is essential in driving the innovations that contribute to new quality productivity [15][16] - The relationship between value creation and productivity is explored, asserting that while total factor productivity enhances production levels, it does not directly create value, which remains rooted in labor [15][16]

2023年3月15日，中国首次提出全球文明倡议，共同倡导尊重世界文明多样性、弘扬全人类共同价值、 重视文明传承和创新、加强国际人文交流合作的理念，在全世界激荡起广泛而深远的回响。2024年6 月，第78届联合国大会协商一致通过中国提出设立的"文明对话国际日"决议，以文明交流互鉴、凝聚和 平发展的共识得到了越来越广泛国家的认同和支持。在国际经贸合作领域，中国积极践行全球文明倡 议，坚持胸怀天下，不但推动中国步入更加包容、合作、共赢的现代化之路，也为世界各国共同迈向现 代化贡献中国力量。 尊重世界文明多样性 世界各国因历史演进、地理环境、经济发展、科技能力、文化传统等因素的千差万别，孕育出各具特 色、精彩纷呈的文明形态。世界文明多样性体现在各个方面，在国际经贸领域表现为各国的资源禀赋、 生产能力、流通手段、消费习惯、投资偏好等存在差异性。正是由于这种差异性涌现出的绝对优势和比 较优势，才导致国际贸易和国际投资需求的产生。人类应善待这种差异，在国际经贸合作中实现优势互 补、促进经济普惠包容增长，在国际经贸规则制定中求同存异、寻求最大公约数，共同推动世界文明进 步。 在推动国际经贸规则制定中，中国主张尊重各国的经济发 ...