Core Viewpoint - Value investing is about purchasing securities or assets at prices below their actual value, often summarized as "buying for 50 cents what is worth a dollar" [1][25][26] - Investors must balance multiple objectives, including generating returns, long-term capital growth, and risk management, while maintaining liquidity to respond to future needs [5][6] - The future cash flow of a business is the most critical factor in investment decisions [1][15] Group 1: Value Investing Principles - Value investors must become excellent business analysts, especially in the digital age where information is readily available [1][52][55] - The principles of value investing remain applicable despite market changes over the past 90 years, emphasizing the importance of fundamental analysis [7][8] - Market inefficiencies create opportunities for value investors to buy undervalued securities when prices deviate from intrinsic value [16][20][29] Group 2: Market Behavior and Investor Psychology - Stock price fluctuations can be both a challenge and an opportunity, as they often reflect market sentiment rather than the underlying business performance [16][18][20] - Investors must resist the tendency to overreact to price increases while selling off during price declines, which can lead to missed opportunities [33][34][35] - Behavioral biases can significantly impact investment decisions, leading to inefficiencies in the market [29][30][37] Group 3: Valuation Techniques - Valuation is both an art and a science, requiring a combination of analytical skills and subjective judgment [41][51] - Investors should use multiple methods to assess a company's value, including discounted cash flow analysis and market multiples [42][44] - The quality of future cash flows is paramount, and investors must consider the sustainability and sources of growth when evaluating potential investments [46][60][63] Group 4: Management and Corporate Governance - The skills and motivations of a company's management team are crucial for determining shareholder returns, and past actions are often the best predictor of future behavior [50][51] - Investors must be cautious when investing in companies where management may prioritize their interests over those of shareholders [51] - Engaging with underperforming companies can present opportunities for activist investors to unlock value through management changes [51]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to recover from 2025 onwards, following a four-year adjustment period, with a cumulative increase of 4.57% in the pharmaceutical and biological industry as of May 30, 2025 [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies with solid R&D foundations and competitive products for international markets, as well as traditional pharmaceutical companies with reasonable valuations [1] - AI is anticipated to empower the entire pharmaceutical supply chain, enhancing efficiency in drug development, production, and medical services [2] Group 1: Market Recovery - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a recovery since 2025, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries in terms of performance, with a cumulative increase of 4.57% [1] - The holding of pharmaceutical stocks has increased but remains at historically low levels [1] - Multiple sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry are showing signs of stabilization and upward trends [1] Group 2: Growth Opportunities - Incremental opportunities are expected from innovative drugs and AI, while structural opportunities may arise from the recovery of left-side assets and valuation adjustments [2] - 2025 is projected to be a significant year for domestic innovative drugs entering international markets, with many companies transitioning from generic to innovative drugs since the "4+7" procurement policy in 2018 [2] - Some pioneering innovative drug companies are anticipated to reach breakeven and turn profitable [2] Group 3: Left-Side Assets - Left-side assets are entering a mild recovery phase, with traditional pharmaceutical companies, CXO, and consumer healthcare sectors gradually clearing existing risks [2] - The industry is expected to see a fundamental recovery as the risks associated with previous procurement policies and demand issues diminish [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective pullback after four consecutive days of gains, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) dropping over 2.5% and quickly surpassing a trading volume of 1.3 billion HKD [1][3] - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical announced a licensing agreement for its proprietary drug Taitasip to Vor Bio, which includes a cash payment of 125 million USD and potential milestone payments totaling up to 4.105 billion USD, leading to a significant drop in Rongchang's stock price [3][4] - Other stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF also saw declines, including Innovent Biologics down nearly 4% and CanSino Biologics down over 3% [3] Group 2 - The current innovative drug market is characterized by a revaluation of assets, driven by the recognition of the commercial viability of leading companies, which is expected to continue as the market acknowledges the long-term value of R&D investments [5][6] - The market's focus has shifted towards data asset pricing rather than business development (BD) pricing, indicating that high-quality R&D data will attract reasonable market valuations regardless of short-term BD fluctuations [6] - Recent regulatory support from the drug administration aims to shorten clinical trial approval times and promote international collaboration in drug development, highlighting the strategic importance of innovative drugs for national security and economic growth [7] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) has a strong focus on the innovative drug sector, with nearly 72% of its top ten holdings in leading companies, indicating a concentrated investment strategy [8] - The ETF has shown significant performance, with a nearly 99% increase over the past year, outperforming other medical indices [8] - The underlying assets of the ETF are traded on the Hong Kong stock market, allowing for T+0 trading, which enhances liquidity and investment flexibility [8]

Group 1 - The banking sector showed volatility on June 26, with the China Securities Banking Index rising by 0.27% at the time of reporting [1] - The Tianhong Bank ETF (515290) experienced a V-shaped rebound, increasing by 0.38%, potentially marking a five-day winning streak [1] - Notable performers among constituent stocks included Qingdao Bank and Suzhou Bank, both rising over 3%, while Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank increased by over 2% [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities predicts that the banking sector's revenue growth is expected to stabilize by 2025, with potential for further valuation recovery [1] - In 2024, the banking sector will face performance pressures primarily due to insufficient effective credit demand, declining LPR, adjustments in existing mortgage loan rates, and reduced fees from wealth management fund sales [1] - Despite ongoing pressures in 2025, improvements in macroeconomic expectations, gradual resolution of real estate risks, and local government debt management are anticipated to alleviate concerns regarding significant fluctuations in bank asset quality, leading to further valuation recovery [1] Group 3 - Wanlian Securities highlights the attractiveness of the banking sector's dividend yield from the perspective of RMB asset allocation, alongside regulatory encouragement for insurance funds to increase market participation [2] - The introduction of the "Public Fund High-Quality Development Action Plan" is expected to guide continuous capital allocation towards the banking sector, reinforcing the valuation floor [2] - Future incremental capital is anticipated to support the sustained performance of the banking sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - After a 16-week period of adjustment, Huahong Semiconductor (01347) has seen a strong rebound in its stock price, reversing the downward trend in the wafer foundry sector [1] Industry Overview - The wafer foundry sector has performed well this year, with major players Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC both experiencing significant increases, with Huahong's stock rising over 60% [1] - The valuation increase in the sector is attributed to strong performance, with Huahong reporting Q1 2025 revenue of $541 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [1][2] - SMIC's revenue for the same period was $2.247 billion, up 28.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of $188 million, reflecting a staggering 162% increase [1][2] Company Performance - Huahong Semiconductor has achieved double-digit revenue growth for two consecutive quarters, with Q2 guidance indicating a growth rate of 15-20% [1] - The company has a total wafer capacity of 413,000 pieces, with an 8-inch wafer revenue of $231 million and a 12-inch wafer revenue of $310 million, the latter showing a significant year-on-year growth of 40.9% [2][4] - The company has maintained a high capacity utilization rate of 102.7% for 8-inch equivalent wafers, exceeding 100% for three consecutive quarters [4] Financial Metrics - Huahong's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 9.24%, while SMIC's was significantly higher at 22.52%, indicating a substantial gap in profitability [5] - Despite lower profitability, Huahong's strong cash flow performance is notable, with a net cash inflow of $50 million in Q1, contrasting with SMIC's net cash outflow of $160 million [6] - As of March 2025, Huahong had cash equivalents of $4.08 billion, while SMIC had $4.587 billion [6] Valuation and Market Sentiment - The market has assigned a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.19 to SMIC, while Huahong's PB ratio is only 1.25, indicating a 75% discount in valuation [7] - Analysts have mixed views on Huahong, with some downgrading its rating due to weak return on equity projections, while others have raised target prices based on expected product price improvements [9] - Overall, the wafer foundry sector is entering a new phase of upward trends, with Huahong's low valuation and improving quarterly performance presenting significant investment opportunities [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 0.84% and over 3,600 stocks in the market showing losses, leading to a trading volume decrease to 1.07 trillion yuan, down 182.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The market failed to rebound as expected after a sharp drop, breaking the trend of strong recoveries following declines observed since May [1] Key Index Movements - The Shanghai Composite Index has faced repeated challenges at the 3,400-point mark, with four previous adjustments mirroring each other, characterized by a middle bearish line breaking through multiple short-term moving averages and decreasing trading volumes [3] - The index's trading volume shrank to 1.067 trillion yuan during the latest attempt to breach 3,400 points, indicating a potential fifth adjustment on the horizon [3] Sector Performance - The liquor sector saw a notable increase, with the China Securities Liquor Index rising nearly 3% in a single day, although it has declined by 11.67% since the announcement of new alcohol restrictions on May 18 [3] - The old energy sector, including oil and gas extraction, has experienced a downturn, while the new energy sector has shown volatility, with solid-state battery stocks initially surging before a rapid decline following the refutation of production cut rumors in the solar industry [4] Institutional Support - The banking and insurance sectors have provided crucial support to the market, indicating the presence of protective forces [6] - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated for 2025, with special bonds and a moderately loose monetary policy expected to bolster market resilience [6] Valuation Insights - A-shares are currently at historically low valuation levels, with the liquor sector's dividend yield becoming attractive compared to ten-year government bond yields [8] - The liquor industry is projected to reach a "valuation-earnings" double bottom by 2025, suggesting a mid-cycle buying opportunity [8] Future Market Outlook - The upcoming week holds uncertainty regarding the adjustment path, with potential for either a deep break that could attract outside capital or a mild pullback that necessitates monitoring of technology sectors for renewed investor interest [10] - Historical patterns suggest that current market adjustments may be a precursor to significant rebounds, similar to past instances where policy support and valuation bottoms coincided [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will review the IPO application of He Yuan Bio on July 1, marking the first company to apply under the newly reinstated fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board since the announcement by the CSRC Chairman on June 18 [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The third listing standard for the ChiNext board has also been officially implemented, supporting high-quality unprofitable innovative companies to go public [1] - These policy directions aim to provide listing opportunities and facilitate financing channels for companies with strong technological innovation capabilities and high growth potential [1] Group 2: Market Trends - As of now, there are 54 unprofitable companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with 20 of them utilizing the fifth listing standard, primarily listed between 2020 and 2022 [1] - The market has shown a significant divergence in value judgment regarding unprofitable companies, especially as the fifth listing standard entered a substantive pause in the second half of 2023 [1] Group 3: Investment Insights - Among the 20 companies that applied the fifth listing standard, 9 have shown a compound annual growth rate of over 40% in revenue over the past three years, indicating strong market capture and high product recognition [2] - In 2023, 19 of these companies outperformed the Sci-Tech 50 Index, with 14 companies seeing stock price increases of over 20%, and 6 exceeding 50% [2] - Institutional investors are increasingly recognizing the growth potential and investment value of these unprofitable companies, with 17 out of 20 companies having fund shareholders and 4 being held by social security funds [2] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The investment logic for high-quality unprofitable companies is becoming clearer with the return to a more inclusive policy direction [2] - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, commercial aviation, and low-altitude economy are expected to receive capital market support, helping leading companies seize development opportunities and accelerate their maturity [2]

Group 1 - The core concept of style rotation is based on the characteristics of ETFs, with common types including large-cap vs. small-cap rotation and growth vs. value rotation [1] - The logic of style rotation relies on two driving factors of equity asset prices: earnings and valuation, where earnings are the key determinant of style strength [1] - The performance difference between growth and value stocks is highly correlated with their earnings growth rate difference, indicating that when the earnings growth gap widens, growth stocks are likely to outperform value stocks [1] Group 2 - Large-cap stocks are more influenced by economic cycles due to their higher representation in the national economy, leading to stronger performance in economic upturns compared to small-cap stocks [1] - The liquidity environment significantly impacts stock valuations, with small-cap stocks being more sensitive to liquidity changes; they tend to perform better in expanding liquidity conditions, while large-cap stocks perform better when liquidity tightens [1]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘继续上涨，回到4.9星。 大中小盘股都上涨，中证500等中小盘股涨幅略高。 红利等价值风格微涨，成长风格上涨较多。 证券指数大涨。 证券经常是三年不开张，开张吃三年。 短期里一波迅猛大涨，然后阴跌好几个月。 例如去年9月那波证券大涨，之后几乎半年多阴跌。 对证券这类品种，不太适合在大涨后追涨买入。 港股整体也上涨。 港股科技股领涨。 这轮5星是3-4月下跌后进入，到6月下旬回到4.9星。 今年市场整体比前两年坚挺很多，回到5星后，向下到过5.1、5.2星就反弹了。 历史上每次回到5星后的下跌，最后都涨了回来。 月薪宝（点击查看） 、 365组合（点击查看） 今天也上涨不错，接近历史新高。 1. 有朋友问，看到新闻说，个人养老金账户，未来取钱的时候，会对本金和收益，收取3%的税率。 那个人养老金账户还有开通必要么？ 其实这个不是一个很新的消息。 去年咱们做直播介绍个人养老金账户的时候，就提到过。 个人养老金账户，给予的福利政策，叫个税递延。 注意递延这个词，而不是完全取消。 不过个人养老金账户，对很多投资者，还是有开通的价值的。 2. 举几个例子。 （1）小王，工 ...

镍&不锈钢：情绪有所好转，延续宽幅震荡 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.5-12.4 | 15.17% | 3.2% | 【利多解读】 成本端镍矿价格支撑仍存 刚果钴矿禁矿延续 source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | 管理 | 值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购 管理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 心原料价格上涨 | 根据生产 ...