今年前六个月，市场在持续升级的地缘政治担忧和美国政策(既有预期内的举措，也有突如其来的推 文，取决于当天情况)的双重夹击下剧烈震荡。 尼科尔指出，澳元在四月风险资产抛售中充分承压，但目前对美元汇率已形成底部，预计到明年中或温 和升值至70美分。 他分享了未来半年重点关注的指标，并揭示了澳大利亚投资者面临的重大机遇。 尼科尔未来数月将紧盯三大市场风险：1）贸易——关税谈判中贸易紧张再度升级的可能性，尤其从美 欧关系视角观察；2）通胀——随着关税成本在美国传导并可能波及他国，通胀可能再度抬头；3）债券 收益率——财政可持续性担忧可能引发债券收益率飙升 他特别指出全球增长放缓背景下，澳大利亚采矿和制造业首当其冲。"对采矿业更多是价格而非产量冲 击，但更疲软的全球环境和贸易政策不确定性将波及更广泛的制造业。"这种影响将在八月开始的澳大 利亚财报季显现。 "资源类企业盈利预期已遭下调，工业板块展望也因全球环境动荡趋于谨慎。"但尼科尔认为并非全是坏 消息，"我们期待盈利能触底回升，并关注国内政策激发的市场活力。全球局势任何稳定迹象都可能促 使资金从大盘股转向更广泛板块。" 聚焦澳大利亚国内政策，尼科尔认为货币政策宽松节奏 ...

Company Overview - Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is currently the largest listed chromium salt company globally, with significant production capacity for Vitamin K3 [2] - The company operates high-tech enterprises with production bases in Huangshi, Hubei, and Tongnan, Chongqing, and owns well-known brands "Minzhong" and "Chugao" [2] - Zhenhua's main products include sodium dichromate, potassium dichromate, chromium trioxide, chromium oxide green, basic chromium sulfate, refined yellow powder, chromium yellow, metallic chromium, ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide, and Vitamin K3 [2] Financial Performance - For the period of January to March 2025, Zhenhua achieved a revenue of 1.0198 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.59% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117.4 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.27% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 114.9 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 29.93% [2] Shareholder Structure - As of March 2025, the concentration of shares is relatively high, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 47.57% of the shares [2] - The total number of shareholders is 18,590, with an average of 27,390 circulating shares per person and an average holding amount of 340,700 yuan [2] Convertible Bond Information - Zhenhua's convertible bond experienced a decline of 3.55%, trading at 198.886 yuan per bond, with a transaction volume of 104 million yuan and a conversion premium rate of 8.95% [1] - The convertible bond has a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity of 6 years, with a coupon rate that increases over the years, starting from 0.20% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 8.2 yuan, with the conversion period starting on January 20, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's economic development faces unprecedented opportunities and challenges amid significant global changes, necessitating a shift towards a new development pattern that emphasizes domestic circulation and technological innovation [2] Group 1: Economic Context - The global political and economic landscape is undergoing deep adjustments, with rising trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts impacting economic globalization [2] - Domestic economic growth is transitioning, requiring the cultivation of new growth drivers as traditional ones weaken [2] Group 2: Financing Mechanisms - Equity financing has historically supported technological innovation but has limitations, such as high entry barriers for early-stage companies and potential dilution of control for existing shareholders [2] - The bond market is emerging as a new engine for supporting technological innovation, offering large-scale, low-cost funding without altering equity structures [3] Group 3: Policy Development - The exploration of innovation bonds (科创债) began in 2015, evolving from pilot programs to regular issuance, with significant policy support from various regulatory bodies [4] - Key milestones include the introduction of dual innovation bonds in 2017 and the transition to regular issuance of innovation bonds in 2022 [4][5] Group 4: Market Growth - As of July 3, 2025, the cumulative issuance of innovation bonds exceeded 3.2 trillion yuan, with a stock size of approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating their importance in capital markets [7] - The issuance pace accelerated significantly in 2025, with a record monthly issuance of 348.3 billion yuan in May [7] Group 5: Technological Advancements - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's electronic issuance system has improved the efficiency of bond issuance, reducing approval times to within three working days and decreasing preparation times for information disclosure by 60% [8] - The introduction of mixed innovation bonds aims to cater to different risk preferences among investors, enhancing the financing tools available for innovation enterprises [5] Group 6: ETF Development - The first batch of innovation bond ETFs was approved in a short timeframe, with significant participation from leading fund management companies, indicating strong market interest [9][10] - Despite the large cumulative scale of innovation bonds, trading activity remains low, suggesting potential for improved liquidity and pricing efficiency [9]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the planned share reduction by the controlling shareholder and actual controller of Yirui Biological, which is not expected to significantly impact the company's governance structure or control [1][2]. Group 1: Share Reduction Plan - Yirui (Hainan) Venture Capital Co., Ltd., the controlling shareholder, plans to reduce its holdings by up to 3,531,208 shares, representing 0.88% of the total share capital [1]. - The actual controller, Zhu Hai, intends to reduce his holdings by up to 7,521,390 shares, accounting for 1.87% of the total share capital [1]. - The total planned reduction by both parties does not exceed 3% of the company's total share capital, with specific limits on the number of shares that can be sold within a 90-day period [1]. Group 2: Company Background and Financials - Yirui Biological was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market on February 9, 2021, with an initial issuance of 40.86 million shares at a price of 5.31 yuan per share, raising a total of 217 million yuan [2]. - The company has raised a total of 545 million yuan from two fundraising events, with the first round netting 175 million yuan after expenses [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 236.51 million yuan, 82.97 million yuan, -184.91 million yuan, and 17.12 million yuan, respectively [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue is projected to be 224.25 million yuan, a decrease of 11.75% from 2023 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 109.26% in 2024, reaching 17.12 million yuan, compared to a loss of 184.91 million yuan in 2023 [5]. - The cash flow from operating activities showed a significant improvement, with a net cash flow of 34.26 million yuan in 2024, compared to a negative cash flow of -37.25 million yuan in 2023, marking a 191.97% increase [5].

Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved the launch of the first batch of 10 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs (科创债ETF) on July 2, 2023, following the proposal made by CSRC Chairman Wu Qing at the Lujiazui Forum [2][3] - The Science and Technology Innovation Bond market has evolved significantly, growing from a pilot program in 2016 to a market size of 3.2 trillion yuan by June 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 116% from 2022 to 2024 [6][7][29] - The "May New Policy" has been a driving force behind the growth of the Science and Technology Innovation Bond market, encouraging the issuance of bonds by technology companies and expanding the scope of fund usage [4][8][14] Group 1: Policy and Market Development - The "May New Policy" introduced a comprehensive set of measures to support Science and Technology Innovation Bonds, including broadening the types of issuers and the use of raised funds [8][9] - The policy encourages investment institutions to increase their allocation to Science and Technology Innovation Bonds, enhancing liquidity through mechanisms like pledging and market-making [10][11] - The market for Science and Technology Innovation Bonds has matured, with a significant shift from real estate and local government bonds to technology-related bonds as key investment products [4][6] Group 2: Characteristics of Science and Technology Innovation Bonds - Science and Technology Innovation Bonds can be categorized into two types: bonds issued by technology innovation companies listed on exchanges and notes issued in the interbank market [5] - The bonds are characterized by high credit ratings, with 99% of the issuers being state-owned enterprises, ensuring a high level of safety for investors [19][24] - The average duration of the bonds is around four years, which aligns with the funding needs of the technology sector and may yield higher returns in a declining interest rate environment [27][29] Group 3: Performance and Investment Appeal - The first batch of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs is expected to attract significant investor interest due to their higher yields compared to government bonds, especially in a bond bull market [32][33] - Historical performance shows that the Shanghai AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index has delivered a cumulative return of 14.11% since June 30, 2022, outperforming other indices [29] - The ETFs offer T+0 trading, providing high flexibility for investors, making them suitable for both active traders and long-term allocators seeking higher yield products [33][35]

Group 1 - The funding environment turned loose after the quarter-end, with overnight and 7-day funding rates dropping to 1.3% and 1.4% respectively, indicating potential for further decline in short-term rates [1] - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for June showed a rebound, suggesting a stable economic foundation, while long-term rates may continue to fluctuate [1][10] - The bond market experienced a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield showing slight fluctuations throughout the week, ultimately down by 0.5 basis points [2][5] Group 2 - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 513.2 billion yuan, with government bonds accounting for 28 billion yuan [6] - The upcoming week is expected to see the issuance of 51 bonds totaling 268.79 billion yuan, with no government bonds planned for issuance [6] - The U.S. Treasury yields rose overall, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7 basis points to 4.35%, reflecting a shift in market expectations [7] Group 3 - The bond market is currently in a favorable window for long positions, but the potential for profit is limited, suggesting a focus on yield spread trading [13] - The current market dynamics indicate a shift, with increased activity in long-duration bonds reflecting strong investor sentiment [14] - The central bank's supportive stance on liquidity and the continued decline in money market rates are seen as key certainties for the market [14]

Group 1: Company Bond ETF Performance - Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.04%, marking a four-day consecutive rise, with the latest price at 106.27 yuan [1] - The trading volume for Company Bond ETF was 442.18 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.02% [1] - The latest scale of Company Bond ETF reached 21.892 billion yuan, a record high since its inception [1] - Over the past three days, Company Bond ETF experienced continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 28.6503 million yuan, totaling 43.5165 million yuan, averaging 14.5055 million yuan daily [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF Performance - National Bond ETF (511020) rose by 0.05%, achieving a five-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 117.77 yuan [4] - The net value of National Bond ETF has increased by 20.72% over the past five years [4] - The latest scale of National Bond ETF reached 1.498 billion yuan, a three-month high [4] - The fund inflow and outflow for National Bond ETF were balanced, with a total of 31.7321 million yuan in net inflows over the last five trading days [4] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF Performance - National Development Bond ETF (159651) showed mixed performance with the latest price at 106.29 yuan, and a 1.92% increase over the past year [4] - The trading volume for National Development Bond ETF was 73.34 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.08% [4] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 6.41 billion yuan [4] Group 4: Market Insights and Outlook - The fixed income team noted that interest rates remained stable, with strong performance in credit bonds driven by the recovery of wealth management scale post-quarter-end [4] - The downward trend in funding rates is beneficial for narrowing interest spreads, while market policy expectations for the third quarter are relatively weak with fewer disturbances [4] - The outlook for the bond market remains optimistic, with a need to support the bank's liability side in a rate-cutting environment [4] - National bond futures are technically positioned for a potential upward breakout [4] Group 5: Upcoming Market Developments - A new issuance of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF is expected to provide additional incremental funds to the market [5] - The credit bond market is anticipated to perform well due to ample liquidity, although caution is advised regarding the liquidity of longer-duration bonds [5] - The three main members of the bond ETF family include Company Bond ETF, National Development Bond ETF, and National Bond ETF, covering various durations to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [5]

Group 1 - The performance of emerging market local currency bonds has reached its best first half in 16 years, driven by a decline in confidence in the US dollar, which has fallen nearly 11% this year [1] - The emerging market local currency bond index has returned over 12% in the first half of the year, outperforming hard currency bonds that rose 5.4% during the same period, marking the strongest increase since 2009 [1] - Significant capital inflows into emerging market bond funds have been observed, with over $21 billion attracted year-to-date, and a weekly inflow of $3.1 billion as of July 2 [1] Group 2 - The outlook for further interest rate cuts in developing countries enhances their attractiveness, with expectations that central banks will have more room to lower rates [4] - Latin American economies have provided some of the best returns, with Mexican local currency bonds (Mbonos) rising 22% and certain Brazilian government bonds yielding over 29% [4] - Improvements in the fundamentals of some emerging markets may lead to new issuers, such as Ghana planning to resume domestic bond issuance in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 3 - Investment preferences are shifting towards Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, indicating a re-evaluation of exposure to the US market [7] - The process of re-learning about local currency bonds is expected to take time for investors who have not engaged with them for a while [7] - Key countries for overweight positions in emerging market local currency bonds include Colombia, the Philippines, and South Africa [7]

日前，公募基金市场迎来重磅新品，首批10只科创债ETF获批。科创债自2021年试点以来，发行不断提 速，正处于快速扩容阶段。截至目前，交易所市场共有科创债1273只，余额超1.3万亿元。 如此快速发展的科创债市场蕴含着怎样的投资机遇？首批科创债ETF的推出有何深远意义？本期《投资 热点说》邀请到鹏华基金现金投资部基金经理张羊城、王中兴，深度解析全市场首批科创债ETF的创新 机遇与挑战。 访谈金句 张羊城：我们建议投资者在配置时关注以下几点：第一，要理解这类ETF的风险收益特征。第二，要关 注成交价格与净值的关系。第三，保持中长期视角。 王中兴：科创债ETF的推出为投资者提供了兼具稳健收益与政策红利的资产配置新选择，既能作为组合 的信用底仓，也可在特定市场环境下发挥收益增强作用。 张羊城：科创债ETF的管理既要"像指数基金一样精确"，也要"像信用债基金一样谨慎"，还要"像ETF产 品一样高效"，需要我们在投研、风控、交易、运营四个层面都高度协同。 在指数成分券的筛选上，核心筛选标准在于"科创属性"：指数编制规则的核心是定义"科技创新公司 债"。这通常依据交易所发布的科创债指引，对发行人所属行业（如高新技术、战略 ...

□本报记者 魏昭宇 上周（6月30日至7月4日），创新药领域不断涌现利好消息，相关主题ETF集体大涨。资金流向方面， 债券型ETF成为上周资金青睐的重要方向，多只宽基指数ETF遭遇资金明显流出。 有业内人士表示，回顾6月，市场在国内基本面持续修复与外部环境改善的共同作用下震荡上行，风险 偏好边际回升。展望7月，国内经济整体有望延续温和修复态势，宏观环境保持稳定。中长期来看，内 需修复仍是中国经济韧性的核心来源，伴随政策持续落地与外部不确定性因素边际减弱，经济增长动能 有望继续巩固。 港股市场行情分化 7月1日，国家医保局、国家卫生健康委联合印发《支持创新药高质量发展的若干措施》，聚焦我国创新 药发展面临的突出问题，提出5方面16条措施，对创新药研发、准入、入院使用和多元支付进行全链条 支持。 受此影响，创新药主题ETF在上周的多个交易日领涨全市场。以7月1日为例，多只创新药主题ETF涨超 3%。其中创新药ETF富国涨幅5.88%。整体来看，上周全市场涨幅最高的10只ETF中，创新药主题产品 有8只。拉长时间来看，港股通创新药ETF、港股创新药ETF等多只产品今年以来的涨幅已超65%。 工银瑞信基金表示，202 ...