国际能源署表示，由于"经济逆风"，全球石油需求增长在2025年一季度强劲增长后，今年剩余时间内将 放缓，而供应过剩将持续到2026年。 周四，国际能源署IEA发布最新月度报告，将今年剩余时间全球石油需求增速，从1月至3月的同比增长 99万桶/日降至"低迷"的65万桶/日。此外，由于原油价格下跌，该机构还下调了美国页岩油产量的预 期。 IEA将2025年全年平均需求增长预测上调至74万桶/日，较上次报告高出2万桶/日。IEA预计2026年全球 供应量平均增长将略高于76万桶/日。 总部位于巴黎的IEA直言： 今年前三个月很可能仍将是2025年表现最强劲的季度。全球石油需求增长放缓的迹象可能已 经开始显现。 需求的疲软可能会对石油价格造成进一步打击，上个月石油价格因特朗普发动全球贸易战争以及 OPEC+宣布增产计划而短暂跌至四年低点。随着部分贸易担忧的缓解，布伦特原油期货价格已略有回 升，接近每桶65美元。然而，考虑到需求放缓与供应过剩的双重打击，油价的长期走势仍然面临严峻挑 战。 双重打击：贸易不确定性与新兴市场疲软 IEA警告称："贸易不确定性的增加预计将对世界经济，进而对石油需求产生负面影响。"这一判断来源 ...

Group 1 - The global trade conflict easing has led to a rebound in oil prices, but subsequent price movements will be primarily influenced by geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production levels [1][4] - As of May 15, international oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures at $61.72 per barrel, down over 2.2%, and Brent crude oil futures at $64.66 per barrel, down 2.15% [1] - Positive signals from US-Iran nuclear negotiations have emerged, with Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions, which may lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has officially started its long-awaited production increase process, with an agreement to raise output by 41.1 thousand barrels per day from May to June, despite a lower-than-expected increase in April [2] - OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, projecting a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, while also revising down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% [2] - The international oil market's trading logic is shifting, with factors such as reduced US tariff pressures and ongoing sanctions against oil-producing countries contributing to price dynamics, while OPEC+ production increases and potential easing of US-Iran tensions present downside risks [4]

5月15日，国际能源署（IEA）发布月报显示，由于经济逆风和创纪录的电动汽车销量抑制了使用量， 预计今年剩余时间全球石油需求增速将从2025年第一季度的99万桶/日放缓至65万桶/日，全球石油需求 增长放缓的迹象可能已经显现，预计2025年剩余时间的增幅将较为平缓，为65万桶/日，年均增幅为74 万桶/日，2026年将增至76万桶/日。国际能源署预计全球供应量增幅将大大超过需求量增幅，预计今年 石油库存平均将增加72万桶/日，明年将增加93万桶/日，而2024年则为减少14万桶/日。 ...

IEA月报：将2025年全球石油总供应量预测从1.042亿桶/日上调至1.046亿桶/日。 ...

Group 1 - The IEA report forecasts an average increase in oil inventories of 720,000 barrels per day by 2025, and 930,000 barrels per day by 2026 [1] - Global oil inventories rose by 25.1 million barrels in March [1] - Global oil inventories increased again in April [1]

IEA月报：2025年美国页岩油产量下调预期被中国、加拿大和巴西的强劲表现所抵消。 ...

IEA月报：预测欧佩克+2025年将增加31万桶/日，2026年将增加15万桶/日。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for total oil supply in 2026, increasing it from 105.2 million barrels per day to 105.6 million barrels per day [1]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for average oil demand growth in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, now estimating an increase of 740,000 barrels per day, driven by an upward revision in GDP growth expectations and a decline in oil prices [1] Group 1 - The IEA's adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook for economic growth, which is expected to support higher oil consumption [1] - The increase in oil demand forecast is significant as it indicates a recovery trend in the oil market, influenced by macroeconomic factors [1] - The downward trend in oil prices is also a contributing factor to the revised demand growth, making oil more accessible [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the average total demand for oil will reach 103.9 million barrels per day by 2025 [1] Group 1 - The IEA's report indicates a significant increase in global oil demand, reflecting ongoing economic recovery and growth [1] - The projected demand of 103.9 million barrels per day represents a notable rise compared to previous years, highlighting the resilience of the oil market [1] - This forecast may influence investment strategies within the energy sector, as companies adjust to anticipated demand shifts [1]