如果美国通胀数据迟迟不上升，那么"最尴尬的人"，或许就是正在等待关税下通胀复燃信号的 鲍威尔，以及那些长期以来一直警告关税将推高美国通胀的经济学家…… 而 今晚，即将公布的美国6月CPI报告，可能就将成为一场关键的"正名之战"…… 目前，在连续四个月高估CPI读数后，不少华尔街机构再度在今晚关键的CPI押注中选择了"押 大" ——预计美国6月CPI数据将出现较高的增速。一些业内人士表示，若美国6月份CPI最终 出现明显上涨，将是美国关税上调正在推高通胀的第一个真正迹象。 事实上，前几个月不温不火的美国通胀数据表现，其实已经让美联储处于了一个较为尴尬的境 地——美联储官员们一直在为年内迄今按兵不动的利率政策进行辩护，他们给出的最常见理由 就是预期关税将推高通胀，但这一效应至今仍始终未见踪影。 而如果今晚的通胀数据表现依然温和——涨幅低于预期，那么几乎可以肯定会引发美国特朗普 再次表达强烈不满。他近来已多次呼吁美联储降息，并屡屡把矛头直接对准美联储主席鲍威尔 本人。 很有意思的是，由于特朗普关税政策带来的一系列不确定性因素，美联储自身其实也没法能精 准把控通胀何时会复燃以及具体的火热程度。在本月初出席欧洲央行年度 ...

现货黄金订单流解读：CPI公布前上方存在明显失衡带 周二，现货黄金多次在3365美元附近遭遇阻力。订单成交轨迹显示，主卖单在3364-3366美元附近形成 了失衡带，表明空头在此区域占据优势。突破此处阻力将是推动黄金进一步上涨的关键。鉴于美国消费 者物价指数（CPI）即将公布，在数据发布前仍需保持谨慎。点击实时跟进最新的多空成交变化>> 订单流使用指南 订单流网页入口 现货黄金 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the news is that former President Trump announced a shocking plan to impose a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil, primarily targeting China and India [1][3] - The proposal was initially introduced by Senator Lindsey Graham, who claimed that the bill has garnered bipartisan support with 84 senators backing it [3][5] - The bill's effectiveness is questioned due to Graham's extreme anti-Russian stance and the potential for Trump to exercise discretion in its enforcement [5][7] Group 2 - China and India have responded calmly to the tariff threat, indicating a strategic approach rather than weakness [9][11] - India has established a rupee-ruble settlement mechanism to bypass the dollar in energy transactions, ensuring its energy trade with Russia remains unaffected [9] - The U.S. retail sector's heavy reliance on China and India's IT services highlights the potential negative impact of such tariffs on American consumers and businesses [11][13] Group 3 - The implementation of the 500% tariff could lead to severe inflation in the U.S., with estimates suggesting that a 25% tariff could increase annual household expenses by $1,270 [11][13] - A significant rise in global oil prices is anticipated if China and India cease purchasing Russian energy, potentially pushing U.S. gasoline prices from $3 to $5 per gallon [13][15] - The contradictory nature of U.S. policies, such as supporting Graham's bill while negotiating a 20% tariff agreement with India, raises concerns about the credibility of U.S. political strategies [15][17] Group 4 - The situation illustrates a paradox in U.S. sanctions strategy, where attempts to isolate adversaries may inadvertently expose vulnerabilities within the U.S. economy [17][18] - The evolving geopolitical landscape suggests that new cooperative frameworks may emerge, challenging the effectiveness of unilateral sanctions [17][18]

【环球网报道】英国《金融时报》15日爆出猛料称，据知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普曾在与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的 通话中，私下鼓动乌方加强对俄罗斯的纵深打击。特朗普甚至询问泽连斯基，如果美国提供远程武器，乌克兰是否能打击莫斯 科？ 《金融时报》援引知情人士消息称，此次对话发生在7月4日美乌领导人通话中。特朗普当时询问泽连斯基，如果美方提供具备相 应能力的武器，乌方是否能打击俄罗斯纵深军事目标。 美国总统特朗普14日在白宫椭圆形办公室会见北约秘书长吕特时，对俄乌战事持续表达不满，称他与俄罗斯总统普京的多次通 话"很愉快"却"毫无意义"。特朗普当天还说，如果俄罗斯没有在50天内同乌克兰达成和平协议，美国将对俄罗斯征收"非常严 厉"的关税及次级关税，同时美国将通过北约向乌克兰提供包括"爱国者"防空导弹系统的军事援助。针对特朗普对俄关税威胁，俄 罗斯联邦安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫7月15日在社交媒体上表示，特朗普向克里姆林宫发出了戏剧化的最后通牒。全世界都为之震 惊，期待其后果。他还表示，欧盟已陷入失望，而俄罗斯对此无所谓。 两名熟悉上述通话内容以及美乌军事战略讨论的知情人士还透露，双方谈及的武器包括美国远程陆军战 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of MP Materials' stock, rising over 12%, is attributed to Apple's announcement of a $500 million investment in the company, highlighting the growing importance of domestic rare earth production in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Company Developments - MP Materials is the only rare earth producer in the U.S., operating a mine in Mountain Pass, California, and plays a crucial role in the rare earth supply chain amid efforts to reduce reliance on foreign sources [1]. - The company has previously secured a $400 million equity investment from the U.S. Department of Defense, making it the largest shareholder with a 15% stake [1]. - The Department of Defense's investment includes support for the construction of a new rare earth permanent magnet factory to enhance processing capacity and magnet production scale [1]. Group 2: Financial Backing and Future Plans - JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have provided a total financing commitment of $1 billion to support the construction and development costs of the new facility, named the "10X Factory," which is expected to begin trial operations in 2028 [1]. - The new facility aims to increase the annual production of magnets in the U.S. to 10,000 tons [1]. Group 3: Market and Industry Outlook - The recent investments are expected to accelerate the establishment of a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, with the CEO emphasizing the company's commitment to independent operations driven by shareholder interests [2]. - The rare earth sector in the U.S. has seen increased activity, with other companies like USA Rare Earth and Energy Fuels also experiencing stock price increases, reflecting optimistic market expectations for the U.S. rare earth industry [2]. - The U.S. government's growing support for the rare earth industry aims to create a more independent critical mineral supply system, with MP Materials' stock performance serving as a direct reflection of this policy direction in the capital market [2].

印度贸易部门：尽管美国平均基础关税为10%且行业关税上调，印度出口仍然保持韧性。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国通胀的领先指标 ——出口深度思考系列之二 在年中展望报告中，我们认为今年"量"比"价"更重要。其简要逻辑在于， 在"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确定性"的基调下，出口风 险的主线是：美国进口→全球贸易/中国的出口→就业影响/政策对冲，而特朗 普关税政策可能引致的通胀上行风险对美国经济的冲击，是影响美国进口需 求的重要因素。因此从国内基本面出发考虑，将本篇报告列为出口深度思考系 列之二，通过构建一个领先指数，来定量地观察美国通胀的短期上行风险。 通胀上行如何冲击美国经济？ 1、居民部门：通胀上行，可能侵蚀美国消费者尤其是中低收入群体的实际收 入和消费能力。表面上来看，2021 年以来美国中低收入群体的实际薪资收入 增速要高于中高收入群体。但实际上，中高收入群体的总税后收入增速依然好 于中低收入群体，并且收入水平越低，税后收入增速越跑不过物价涨幅。基于 上述事实，如果通胀上行，实际薪资增速下行，对中低收入群体的实际购买力 以及整体贫富差距都存在负面影响，中低收入群体也是特朗普选民的基本盘。 2、居民部门：若出现明显的通胀上行，压制风险偏好带来美股下跌 ...

关税"通胀雷"今夜引爆？ 美国6月CPI将于今晚20:30重磅公布，预期数据全面上扬。此前多名官员预警通胀将于今夏起回升，若 数据坐实关税传导效应，美联储九月降息恐成幻影。届时市场恐剧烈波动，敬请投资者留意相关风险。 点击查看更多前瞻... 6月CPI能否验证关税冲击？黄金多头蠢蠢欲动！ 经济学家预计6月CPI将真正显示关税影响，而此前数月的CPI读数均被高估。美联储若再度失算，特朗 普政府恐怕不会放过...... ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions among major global economies are heightening market caution, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like silver and gold, with silver prices showing strong short-term performance ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI data release [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices recovered to above $38.30, driven by trade tensions and anticipation of U.S. inflation data [1] - The market is closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations of an increase in overall inflation rate from 2.4% to 2.7% and core inflation from 2.8% to 3.0% [2] - The release of inflation data will directly impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influencing silver prices [2] Group 2: Price Movements - Spot silver reached a high of $39.10, the highest level since September 2011, before stabilizing around $38.28 [2] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to concerns over supply and rapid growth in industrial demand [2] - Gold's sustained increase over the past 18 months has led investors to seek more cost-effective alternatives, boosting silver's appeal [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Silver's recent price action shows a bearish reversal pattern, with the daily RSI remaining high and potential resistance at $39 [3] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $38.00 and $37.65, while resistance levels are at $38.60 and $39.00 [3]