今天的文章分享一篇大佬林园的近期观点。 近日，林园在多次线上交流节目上，分享了其当下对于A股市场、红利股息、食品饮料、AI、黄金、巴 菲特减持等宏观与热门板块的研判观点。 总体来看林园依然乐观看好市场，认为现在是A股非常好的买点，这是他入市以来几十年最好的投资时 机。 对此，证星研究院整合了其近期多个访谈的部分观点（4.24、5.27），分享给大家。 以下为概括内容： 1.谈及市场：预判美联储降息；将投资股息资产 谈及市场，林园判断，美联储可能已经进入降息尾声。 他们判断美联储接下来会积极降息，直到正常范围，据他们测算正常范围是1%，目前是5%以上，至于 什么时候降息，相信不会太远。 谈及关税，林园认为，美国提出了对等关税，也有其合理性存在。 中国确实存在商品生产过剩，原因是过去超过十年的时间，一直都是产能提高、效率提高，再加上资金 的涌入。基本上，中国的东西是买不完。 这种形式会影响到国外，因为中国生产的东西太便宜，太优质，性价比非常高。美国总统提出了对等关 税，本质是让中国的东西在美国也不好卖。这会产生一些矛盾。 所以他认为，特朗普提出这些东西，实际上对中国去产能是有好处的。长远来说，对中国的经济也是非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF Fund (513820) has distributed its 11th cash dividend, reflecting a stable income stream for investors in a low-interest-rate environment [1][11]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Dividend Distribution - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF Fund (513820) experienced a slight decline of 0.09% after reaching a peak, with the current dividend distribution marking a significant milestone for investors [1]. - The fund has consistently provided monthly dividends since July 2024, with a total distribution of 0.29 yuan per 10 shares, indicating a reliable income source [11]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The underlying index of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF, which focuses on high-dividend stocks, has seen most of its constituent stocks experience a pullback, although some, like Pacific Shipping, have shown gains [3]. - Insurance capital is increasingly entering the market, with a focus on high-dividend stocks, as indicated by the approval of new long-term investment pilot programs for smaller insurance companies [3][5]. - The investment strategy of insurance companies emphasizes high-dividend stocks, which are expected to provide better returns in a declining interest rate environment [8]. Group 3: Sector Preferences and Stock Performance - Insurance funds are heavily invested in sectors such as transportation, telecommunications, and banking, while reducing exposure to food and beverage, utilities, and energy sectors [9]. - The average dividend yield of stocks targeted by insurance companies has increased to 4.6%, the highest in recent years, reflecting a shift in focus towards high-dividend investments [9]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis and Valuation - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF boasts a leading dividend yield of 7.87%, outperforming other major dividend indices, which enhances its attractiveness to investors [10]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is comparatively lower than that of A-shares, providing a greater margin of safety for investors [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a decline in the morning session on May 30, with the banking sector experiencing a rise, and the 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index increasing by 0.20% at the time of reporting [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300) rose by 0.07% with a trading volume exceeding 45 million yuan and a premium rate of 0.01%, indicating frequent premium trading during the session [1] - The 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300) received a net inflow of over 140 million yuan yesterday, marking six consecutive trading days of net inflows, totaling over 260 million yuan [1][2] Group 2: Component Stocks - Among the constituent stocks, Shanghai Port Group, Ningbo Expressway, and Nanjing Bank saw increases of over 1%, while Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Chengdu Bank also experienced gains [2] Group 3: Investment Insights - Xiangcai Securities noted that high-dividend sectors are favored by institutions, and dividend assets serve as a good alternative to pure bonds. The banking sector is recommended for attention despite performance pressure from narrowing interest margins, as bank convertible bonds are relatively scarce [2] - Caixin Securities indicated that until trading volume expands consistently, the structural market with index fluctuations and sector rotations is likely to continue. Concepts related to export industrial chains, self-sufficiency, domestic demand expansion, high dividend yields, and mergers and acquisitions may remain active [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by high dividend yields and a favorable interest rate environment, making it an attractive investment option [1][4][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector saw a trading volume of 222.5 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The A+H bank ETF has increased by 13.3% year-to-date and has set seven historical highs, with fund shares growing by 78 million [1][4] - The bank AH index has outperformed the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Index, suggesting continued upward potential [4] Group 2: Financial Metrics - The one-year fixed deposit rate is 0.95%, while the five-year rate is 1.3%, and the ten-year government bond yield is only 1.73%, highlighting the attractiveness of bank stocks with 4-6% dividends [1] - The banking sector's average net profit growth over the past ten years is 4.5%, with a variation coefficient of 78.6%, indicating stable earnings compared to other industries [5] - The projected return on equity (ROE) for the banking sector in 2024 is 9.3%, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.61x, suggesting undervaluation relative to other sectors [6] Group 3: Investment Trends - Insurance companies are increasingly investing in high-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector, as part of their asset allocation strategy [1] - The introduction of public fund quality development plans is seen as a positive factor for the stable and low-volatility banking sector [5]

5月30日，外围不确定性反复，A股早盘震荡走弱，截至9:36，沪指跌0.25%，深证成指跌0.52%，创业板指跌0.63%。 消息面上，北京时间周三早上7:00左右，美国联邦法院裁决叫停特朗普的大部分关税。但仅到周四凌晨3:00左右，美国上诉法院就恢复了关 税。白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗周四表示，如果特朗普政府最终在围绕其贸易政策的法庭斗争中败诉，政府将寻求通过其他方式征收关税。此外，据 报道，特朗普政府寻求关税计划Plan B，允许150天内征收最高15%的关税。 盘面上，高股息风格护盘，银行、保险、电力等方向活跃；医药股再度走强，中药、创新药方向领涨，华森制药4连板；养殖业板块拉升，巨 星农牧涨停；稳定币概念继续发酵，数字货币、移动支付方向领涨，海联金汇、翠微股份涨停；无人驾驶概念持续活跃，云内动力5连板。下 跌方面，高位股重挫，丽人丽妆、王子新材跌停，板块方面，核电、可控核聚变概念回调，消费电子、半导体、汽车产业链等板块跌幅居前。 展望后市，光大证券研报认为，六月市场时常缺乏明确的主线机会，行情容易陷入存量博弈的板块轮动特征中。在增量资金不足、板块轮动的 背景下，需要流动性支撑的大盘蓝筹股可能面临一定的压力，进 ...

Core Insights - Nike, Carter's, and Wendy's will trade ex-dividend on 6/2/25, with respective dividends of $0.40, $0.25, and $0.14 [1] - The estimated annualized yields for these companies are 2.59% for Nike, 2.99% for Carter's, and 5.01% for Wendy's [3] Dividend Details - Nike's quarterly dividend of $0.40 will be paid on 7/1/25 [1] - Carter's quarterly dividend of $0.25 will be paid on 6/20/25 [1] - Wendy's quarterly dividend of $0.14 will be paid on 6/16/25 [1] Stock Price Impact - Nike shares are expected to open 0.65% lower, Carter's 0.75% lower, and Wendy's 1.25% lower on 6/2/25 due to the dividend payouts [2] - Current trading performance shows Nike shares down about 1.7%, Carter's up about 3.3%, and Wendy's down about 0.3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Fortive Corporation is significantly expanding its share repurchase efforts, indicating strong confidence in its long-term growth prospects and disciplined capital allocation strategy [1] Share Repurchase Program - The board of directors has authorized an increase of approximately 15.63 million shares under its general share repurchase program, bringing the total number of shares available for buyback to 20 million, including 4.37 million shares from prior authorizations [2] - The general repurchase program is open-ended with no expiration date, allowing Fortive to repurchase shares at its discretion over time [2] - A Special Purpose Share Repurchase Program has been introduced, permitting the company to repurchase up to $550 million of its common stock using proceeds from the anticipated $1.15 billion pre-separation dividend from Ralliant Corporation [3] Spin-off and Share Distribution - Fortive's board has approved the distribution of 100% of the outstanding shares of Ralliant Corporation to Fortive shareholders through a pro rata dividend, scheduled for June 28, 2025 [4] - Shareholders of record as of June 16, 2025, will receive one share of Ralliant common stock for every three shares of Fortive common stock owned [4] Financial Strategy and Performance - Management has allocated about 75% of its free cash flow toward share repurchases since announcing the spin-off last year, emphasizing a balanced, value-driven capital deployment strategy post-separation [5] - In the first quarter, the company repurchased 2.5 million shares, maintaining a consistent pace of buybacks [6] - Fortive remains committed to using free cash flow for additional share repurchases as it progresses with the anticipated spin-off, which is a positive signal for stock price appreciation [7] Challenges and Guidance - The company has revised its 2025 guidance due to a delayed recovery in Precision Technologies and global tariff impacts, estimating gross tariff costs of $190–$220 million, primarily from China [8] - For the second quarter, adjusted EPS is estimated to be 85-90 cents, including tariff headwinds, which are expected to weigh on adjusted operating margins [8] Market Performance - Fortive currently has a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), with shares losing 2.8% in the past year compared to no change for the Zacks Electronics - Testing Equipment industry [9]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 报告摘要 5月A股港股市场有所回暖 5月A股主要指数涨跌分化，行业端涨多跌少。受风险偏好波动等因素影响，5月（截至27日），A股主要指数 涨跌出现分化，其中万得全A涨幅最大，而科创50跌幅最大。行业端涨多跌少，轻工制造、综合、纺织服饰等 行业表现较好，而电子、计算机、房地产、社会服务等行业表现相对较差。 5月港股市场震荡上行。5月受海外扰动缓和、国内风险偏好回暖等因素影响，港股市场整体走势震荡上行。截 至2025年5月27日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为 7.6%、5.7%、5.3%、4.9%、1.9%。 A股观点：继续关注三类资产 政策的持续支持以及中长期资金积极流入背景下， A股市场有望震荡上行。当前A股市场的估值处于2010年以 来的均值附近，而随着政策的积极发力，中长期资金带来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托 底，A股市场有望震荡上行。 配置方向上，关注三类资产。方向一：稳定类资产，如高股息、黄金。稳定类资产能够在市场面临不确定时提 供确定性。方向二：产业链自主可控。在"双循环"新发展格局和全球产业链重构的双重驱 ...

Core Viewpoint - DICK'S Sporting Goods is positioned as a quality investment opportunity for retail investors, characterized by brand strength, industry leadership, and a solid financial foundation, despite not being as high-profile as other tech stocks like NVIDIA [1] Financial Performance - The Q1 dividend increased by 6% year-over-year, yielding 2.8% with shares priced near $175, indicating a reliable payment structure [3] - The company maintains a payout ratio of less than 40% of its earnings, supporting a double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in distributions due to growth and share buybacks [3] - Share repurchases in Q1 rose by over 150% from the previous year, leading to a 2.24% reduction in share count, with expectations for continued robust buybacks in 2025 [4] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - DICK'S Sporting Goods has a solid cash balance of $1 billion, with total assets increasing and a flat long-term debt position, reflecting strong financial health [5] - Shareholder equity increased by 13.5%, indicating a positive trend in long-term equity growth [5] Market Outlook - The stock price forecast for DICK'S Sporting Goods is $227.89, representing a potential upside of 28.57% from the current price of $177.26 [7] - The company reaffirmed guidance despite Q1 results missing analyst estimates, with a forecasted revenue range of $13.6 billion to $13.9 billion and a 1% to 3% increase in comparable-store sales [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Foot Locker is expected to unlock brand synergies and enhance growth, with integration anticipated to accelerate equity growth in 2025 and 2026 [6][8] - DICK'S Sporting Goods is focusing on expanding its House of Sport concept, which includes enhanced customer experiences and services [9][10] Institutional Interest - Over 90% of DICK'S Sporting Goods stock is owned by institutions, fund managers, and insiders, indicating strong confidence in the company's long-term value [12] - Recent trading activity shows a positive trend, with a 5% increase in pre-market trading following earnings release, suggesting potential for reaching new all-time highs [13]

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.64元 证券代码：605099 证券简称：共创草坪 公告编号：2025-021 江苏共创人造草坪股份有限公司2024年年度权益分派实施公告 ? 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/6/5 | － | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/6 | | ? 差异化分红送转： 否 一、通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 5 月 20 日的2024年年度股东会审议通过。 二、分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本401,642,000股为基数，每股派发现金红利0.64 元（含税） ，共计派发 ...