Dollar weakness continues to dominate our G10 FX views with US-RoW rate and growth convergence, as well as increased FX hedging, remaining in play. USD View: Bearish | Skew: Bearish The DXY should continue trading lower as US growth and rates converge to those of the rest of the world, and increased FX hedging adds risk premium to the USD. EUR View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish July 2, 2025 07:50 AM GMT Global Macro Strategy | Global G10 FX Chart Pack Top charts we are watching for each G10 currency with economi ...

1 July 2025 | 8:44AM EDT US Economics Analyst The Framework Review: Room for Innovation on Fed Communication (Abecasis / Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. L ...

Market Trend - Wells Fargo is increasing purchases of top-rated collateralized loan obligations [1] - This follows a period of reduced activity in the $1.3 trillion market after interest rate hikes in 2022 [1]

Let's bring in the aforementioned pioneer of the bond vigilante term, Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research. Ed, this is an environment where it's surfacing again, that term bond vigilantes, but they don't seem to be nearly as effective of vigilanteism as the original bond vigilantes that helped you coin the phrase. Correct. Correct.Well, you know this they were most active in the 1980s and then in the 1990s inflation came down and the administration back then the Clinton administration recognized t ...

Market Trends & Interest Rates - Treasury yields are rising as investors react to weaker jobs data and the potential impact of President Trump's tax and spending package [1] - Interest rates may have peaked in terms of low rates, particularly given the holiday-shortened week [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield continues to move higher [3] Labor Market Analysis - ADP small business job loss data at 8:15 AM EST made some traders nervous, causing yields to drop initially [2] - A potentially weakening labor market could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [4] - Uncertainty remains whether the day's report is indicative of the larger jobs number to be released tomorrow [5] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Monetary Policy - A weakening labor market could hasten the Fed's easing campaign [4] - Fed fund futures gravitated towards the upside, indicating expectations of more easing [4] - The market is unsure if today's report is a one-off or a clue about tomorrow's jobs number, impacting expectations for the Fed [5] Bond Market Dynamics - The 2-year yield reflects the most information regarding the Fed [3] - The 210 spread (difference between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields) bounced back and steepened [3] - The D's contract (likely referring to a specific futures contract) initially reflected the two-year yield's movement but almost returned to unchanged [5]

Speaking of the weak dollar, my next guest has three names that should benefit from that. Or maybe it's the whole market as we were just discussing. Michael Caneritz is here.He's the chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler. It's great to see you. You too.What What is the the sort of top level effect of a dollar being down 10%. I mean, is it supportive for stocks. What happens if it continues. What happens if it doesn't.I I think it's positive. I mean, at least that's what I've we've observed through mo ...

RT Pio (@piovincenzo_)I'm not a real estate guru butif you're expecting serious rate cuts to happen in the next 12 monthsdoesn't it make sense to buy the house now, in a less competitive, higher interest rate environment?And then just refinance in 12-24 months? ...

🇺🇸 NEW: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Fed could cut interest rates by September, or sooner, if Trump’s tariffs continue showing little inflation impact. https://t.co/KbvReZ3Cqh ...

Fed chair Jay Powell said yesterday that President Trump's tariffs had lifted inflation forecasts and were keeping rates on hold. Joining us now for more on the Fed and the US economy, David Malpass, former World Bank president and now distinguished fellow of international finance and inaugural fellow of global business and infrastructure at Purdue's Business School. David, great to have you with us. Hi Melissa, good to be on. Um, where do you think rates would be had it not been for the tariffs? Would we b ...

Market Overview - In 2025, markets are experiencing high volatility, with NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs despite uncertain economic indicators [1][2] - Analysts anticipate clearer monetary and tariff policies in the second half of the year, along with solid earnings reports, particularly in the tech sector driven by AI [2] Company Insights - **CME Group**: - Operates the largest derivatives marketplace, benefiting from increased trading volumes in volatile markets [5] - Stock has risen over 40% in the last 12 months and over 18% in 2025, showing signs of recovery after a pullback [6][7] - **Goldman Sachs**: - A leading global investment bank that thrives in volatile markets, generating revenue from expanded bid-ask spreads and increased trading activity [9][10] - Stock is up 23.8% in 2025, with bullish momentum but potential for a short-term pullback [11] - **MarketAxess**: - Operates an electronic trading platform for corporate bonds, expected to benefit from increased trading volumes as credit market volatility rises [13][14] - Stock is down 1.5% in 2025 but has shown a 3.1% increase in the last three months, indicating a potential breakout [15][16]